Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That's because they know down to the regional level how things are progressing and can throttle the severity of the restrictions to the level that is appropriate for that region. Knowledge is power.
Check on the dashboard on rki.de

There was an example of Mannheim and Heidelberg which are right beside each other where there is a lot of public transport traffic and based on infection levels you could wear a normal surgical mask until you reach the suburb of Mannheim and must then put on a FFP2 mask all because they know the infection levels on a daily basis and measure over the last 7 days, not 14 days because 14 days isn't granular enough.

I can just imagine the level of discussion here if you were required to change you mask as the Ennis to Limerick bus crossed the Shannon. “The virus knows where it is now does it” “just like the 9 euro meal” “jokeshop country”

Polar101

manofwisdom wrote: »

Overly cautious as seen with only allowing 3% of the Croke Park capacity into the league final at the weekend.

If there were no restrictions, would a Derry-Offaly game fill more than 3% of Croke Park?

Ficheall

TefalBrain wrote: »

65k people at a football match in Hungary today.

Christ we are so slow at moving on with life here.

I thought it was the UK's progress people were clamouring to rapidly emulate not so long ago, despite them having been significantly ahead in vaccinations. Are we shifting to Hungary, to avoid the pun?

Wibbs

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought it was the UK's progress people were clamouring to rapidly emulate not so long ago, despite them having been significantly ahead in vaccinations. Are we shifting to Hungary, to avoid the pun?

yep and given that Hungary has the second worst covid death rate in the world with a mortality rate in those tested of nearly 4% overall(compared to ours at 1.8% in the highest risk groups) and their graph is still high though levelling out so not exactly a great example to emulate.

bennyineire

Polar101 wrote: »

If there were no restrictions, would a Derry-Offaly game fill more than 3% of Croke Park?

Yes

AdamD

Ficheall wrote: »

I thought it was the UK's progress people were clamouring to rapidly emulate not so long ago, despite them having been significantly ahead in vaccinations. Are we shifting to Hungary, to avoid the pun?

Must say I find this quite amusing. I'd much rather be in the UK than Ireland right now. If you aren't obsessing over Covid figures (which arent even bad), there's a lot fewer restrictions and more life to be living.

Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.

Ficheall

AdamD wrote: »

Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.

Delighted pausing their reopening was necessary? No.
Delighted they're doing the sensible thing and pausing their reopening to prevent the virus taking off again? Yes.

bucketybuck

AdamD wrote: »

Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.

The key word being "paused".

There are some on here who would have you believe the UK were going "back into lockdown" and rolling it all back, when in fact all they are talking about is waiting a bit longer before opening nightclubs.

Such nuance is lost on the Irish mice however, who remain poised to scurry back to their holes at the first hint of trouble.

is_that_so

AdamD wrote: »

Must say I find this quite amusing. I'd much rather be in the UK than Ireland right now. If you aren't obsessing over Covid figures (which arent even bad), there's a lot fewer restrictions and more life to be living.

Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.

Like so much about this people are jaded and our only real focus at this stage is the rate of progress of our own vaccination programme. We've got dates for our relaxation of measures and most people have mentally adjusted for that, that is except for those who think we've got it all wrong everywhere.

goingnowhere

AdamD wrote: »

Must say I find this quite amusing. I'd much rather be in the UK than Ireland right now. If you aren't obsessing over Covid figures (which arent even bad), there's a lot fewer restrictions and more life to be living.

Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.

Worst numbers in Europe currently.

We are tied to the UK whether we like it or not and the rapid opening up in the UK has followed the classic UK line of over promise and hope for the best, and we will have to take a hit from this.

If Delta gains hold here and cases rise, what little of a Summer we could have had is finished for us and travel is a dream. If we can maintain a downward numbers regardless of Delta we might escape. We have a short window between now and mid July to get our house in order.

We have 3 positives
1. Much higher vaccine uptake across all groups than the UK which struggled with minorities and a touch of tin foil hat stuff
2. We have Pfizer as our primary vaccine which has the edge over AZ
3. We didn't go mad and open up indoor hospitality

AdamD

goingnowhere wrote: »

Worst numbers in Europe currently.

We are tied to the UK whether we like it or not and the rapid opening up in the UK has followed the classic UK line of over promise and hope for the best, and we will have to take a hit from this.

If Delta gains hold here and cases rise, what little of a Summer we could have had is finished for us and travel is a dream. If we can maintain a downward numbers regardless of Delta we might escape. We have a short window between now and mid July to get our house in order.

We have 3 positives
1. Much higher vaccine uptake across all groups than the UK which struggled with minorities and a touch of tin foil hat stuff
2. We have Pfizer as our primary vaccine which has the edge over AZ
3. We didn't go mad and open up indoor hospitality

Unless I'm misreading something, the UK don't have anything coming close to the worst numbers in Europe currently.

Renjit

AdamD wrote: »

Unless I'm misreading something, the UK don't have anything coming close to the worst numbers in Europe currently.

7 days average detection is going up for UK compared to Italy, France, Germany etc. They paused easing based on that to wait and watch how it pans out.

seamus

AdamD wrote: »

Unless I'm misreading something, the UK don't have anything coming close to the worst numbers in Europe currently.

I suppose that's true if you count Georgia as a European country.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Of all those countries, only the UK and Portugal are seeing case numbers rise.

timmyntc

seamus wrote: »

I suppose that's true if you count Georgia as a European country.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Of all those countries, only the UK and Portugal are seeing case numbers rise.

I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least

Wolf359f

timmyntc wrote: »

I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least

Not sure what's suspect about it.
It means the last 7 day average of cases has reduced compared to the 7 days preceding it.
So cases are going down.

Ficheall

timmyntc wrote: »

I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least

It's not a site I use, but why do you feel those figures are suspect?

seamus

timmyntc wrote: »

I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least

The numbers are probably a bit off, but nevertheless the UK remains up there with the highest numbers, and growing.

our world in data

timmyntc

Wolf359f wrote: »

Not sure what's suspect about it.
It means the last 7 day average of cases has reduced compared to the 7 days preceding it.
So cases are going down.

Ficheall wrote: »

It's not a site I use, but why do you feel those figures are suspect?

It implies cases have more than halved in the last 7 days.
They havent dropped that much

Ficheall

timmyntc wrote: »

It implies cases have more than halved in the last 7 days.
They havent dropped that much

Or that one figure is for 7 days and the other for 14...?

Wolf359f

timmyntc wrote: »

It implies cases have more than halved in the last 7 days.
They havent dropped that much

It doesn't imply that at all.
The 14 day rate includes the most recent 7 day rate.
105 for 14 days, 43 for the last 7.
Means the preceding 7 day rate was 62. So a week on week reduction of ~30%

Ficheall

Aside: do you guys prefer
"The data is wrong" or "The data are wrong"?

timmyntc

Ficheall wrote: »

Or that one figure is for 7 days and the other for 14...?

Wolf359f wrote: »

It doesn't imply that at all.
The 14 day rate includes the most recent 7 day rate.
105 for 14 days, 43 for the last 7.
Means the preceding 7 day rate was 62. So a week on week reduction of ~30%

oops my bad

Thought it was a 7 day average per 100k, it was just 7 days total per 100k.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

I dont know how much trust I'd put in those figures - apparently Ireland has a 7day rate of 43 per 100k?

But our 14day rate is 105 per 100k.. suspect figures to say the least

Why is that suspect? Our rate is falling. Last 7 days - 43, previous 7 days 62, 14 day 105

14 day figure is misleading as to how successful the measures are at combatting spread.
Germany has been consistently quoting 7 day results. Someone testing positive a fortnight ago and then going in to quarantine is just a distraction from the measures that need to be implemented today.

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

14 day figure is misleading as to how successful the measures are at combatting spread.
Germany has been consistently quoting 7 day results. Someone testing positive a fortnight ago and then going in to quarantine is just a distraction from the measures that need to be implemented today.

So is 7 the magic number? If 14 is misleading.. what about 3, 5, 10, for example?

is_that_so

Ficheall wrote: »

Aside: do you guys prefer
"The data is wrong" or "The data are wrong"?

Both are used interchangeably, I'm a singular man myself!

is_that_so

Ficheall wrote: »

So is 7 the magic number? If 14 is misleading.. what about 3, 5, 10, for example?

The 14 day is the standard one used to record prevalence, NPHET are using the 5 day which gives insights into immediate trends, the 7 day is just a slightly longer view of that data.

That is what 7 day reporting looks like right down to a few square KM and the news reports whether there is a drop or increase on the same day last week so you can see if people were partying too hard at teh weekend.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

goingnowhere

Current Irish numbers based on the daily reports

105/100k/14
312/5 day
317/7 day (which would give ~46/100k/7)

Puts us mid tier

Central Europe is well below us in numbers and really heading down quickly.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

That is what 7 day reporting looks like right down to a few square KM and the news reports whether there is a drop or increase on the same day last week so you can see if people were partying too hard at teh weekend.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

Ireland had something not too far away, down to LEA level, which is maybe 25k people
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/8c8ba825c8774bca8cc57cbf3ec7774b

But you may have heard of the massive cyber attack talking out the entire HSE IT infrastructure and possible understand that a reporting dashboard may not be top priority in terms of system recovery