Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

timmyntc

seamus wrote: »

Actually, your point is a common disingenuous misrepresentation of what that tweet actually said. Everyone is saying, "whERe is THe spiKE" even though Tony never said there would be.

His actual words were, "Enormous crowds- like a major open air party. This is what we do not need when we have made so much progress."

There was no prediction of a big spike. I'm not going to say he wasn't overstating it a bit, but his rationale is sound; it is/was too early for large uncontrolled public gatherings. One incident of a few hundred people on a street may not cause a measurable spike. But the same scenes repeated across the country on a nightly basis, could and likely would lead to new spikes.

But keep on claiming that one example of running in front of a car without being hit proves that it's safe for everyone to run in front of cars.

But if, by your own admission there was no spike from said event - how can you say its too early for it? The lack of a spike is proof of the low level of risk - so the fact that it all went off swimmingly is surely proof enough that it was not "too early".

Really the onus is on yourself to provide evidence that outdoor gatherings run a risk of spikes in covid numbers - because time and time again throughout the pandemic we have had the warnings and the condemnation - but never the spike. Outdoor gathering is safe.

AdamD

seamus wrote: »

Actually, your point is a common disingenuous misrepresentation of what that tweet actually said. Everyone is saying, "whERe is THe spiKE" even though Tony never said there would be.

His actual words were, "Enormous crowds- like a major open air party. This is what we do not need when we have made so much progress."

There was no prediction of a big spike. I'm not going to say he wasn't overstating it a bit, but his rationale is sound; it is/was too early for large uncontrolled public gatherings. One incident of a few hundred people on a street may not cause a measurable spike. But the same scenes repeated across the country on a nightly basis, could and likely would lead to new spikes.

But keep on claiming that one example of running in front of a car without being hit proves that it's safe for everyone to run in front of cars.

I agree with your general point but those scenes have been happening in Dublin city for weeks (nigh on months at this point, it was jammers in early April), and continued in the weekends after his comment, to no discernable affect on numbers. Whilst it would be better if the gatherings were far more spread than a few streets, it does bring into question whether outdoors is at all risky.

The 'outrage' at times has often been weeks behind the scenes on the ground. Was the same with takeaway pints earlier in the pandemic. You've got one group of society shocked and appalled when its brought to their attention, and another group wondering how its taken them so long to notice.

Renjit

timmyntc wrote: »

But if, by your own admission there was no spike from said event - how can you say its too early for it? The lack of a spike is proof of the low level of risk - so the fact that it all went off swimmingly is surely proof enough that it was not "too early".

Really the onus is on yourself to provide evidence that outdoor gatherings run a risk of spikes in covid numbers - because time and time again throughout the pandemic we have had the warnings and the condemnation - but never the spike. Outdoor gathering is safe.

Onus is on coronavirus :pac: hindsight e^20/20

Timmy O Toole

So basically NEPHETs stance is that it's better to catch zero cases than some cases. Tony said that countries using Antigen tests for travel were countries that don't have PCR testing capacity. That's a flat out lie ?

Renjit

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

So basically NEPHETs stance is that it's better to catch zero cases than some cases. Tony said that countries using Antigen tests for travel were countries that don't have PCR testing capacity. That's a flat out lie ?

For travel, gold standard is best. It's pandemic for a reason.

MOR316

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0615/1228265-boost-of-25-million-for-festivals-and-gigs/

Do you want Ketchup or Mayo with that?

Seriously, why are you so arrogant and condescending towards people?

So what if he/she thinks its too optimistic for it to go ahead, especially after last week's embarrassment in the Iveagh Gardens?

It's a valid opinion!

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

But if, by your own admission there was no spike from said event - how can you say its too early for it? The lack of a spike is proof of the low level of risk - so the fact that it all went off swimmingly is surely proof enough that it was not "too early".

Really the onus is on yourself to provide evidence that outdoor gatherings run a risk of spikes in covid numbers - because time and time again throughout the pandemic we have had the warnings and the condemnation - but never the spike. Outdoor gathering is safe.

Its only proof if you know there were infected individuals in the crowd.

If there was 1000 people on the street and the covid rate in Dublin was 100 per 100,000, a random 1,000 people would have 1 case. But the likelihood is that a large portion - say 50% would be isolating. So a single event, in isolation, is highly unlikely to influence numbers

Antigen testing pick up cases.

NPHET, whose raison d'etre has been to identify as many cases as possible for the purposes of isolation, has decided not to use a tool that can pick up at least some positive cases (which may include the Indian variant).

It's the stupidest thing to come out of NPHET yet.

I have no doubt a future inquiry will be all over this.

MOR316

MOR316 wrote: »

Seriously, why are you so arrogant and condescending towards people?

So what if he/she thinks its too optimistic for it to go ahead, especially after last week's embarrassment in the Iveagh Gardens?

It's a valid opinion!

Excuse me!

He did not say it was optimistic for it to go ahead. He said he would eat his hat if it went ahead. And I pointed it out that 25million in funding was made available to ensure such events could go ahead. Now thats a large commitment that they want such events to go ahead. So I advised that he may like some condiments with his hat, because I am optimistic that a commitment has been signalled.

And in what way is that condescending?

Renjit

eskimohunt wrote: »

Antigen testing pick up cases.

NPHET, whose raison d'etre has been to identify as many cases as possible for the purposes of isolation, has decided not to use a tool that can pick up at least some positive cases (which may include the Indian variant).

It's the stupidest thing to come out of NPHET yet.

I have no doubt a future inquiry will be all over this.

List of EU countries and type of test required for travel:
https://www.etiasvisa.com/etias-news/pcr-covid-testing-travel-eur

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

Its only proof if you know there were infected individuals in the crowd.

If there was 1000 people on the street and the covid rate in Dublin was 100 per 100,000, a random 1,000 people would have 1 case. But the likelihood is that a large portion - say 50% would be isolating. So a single event, in isolation, is highly unlikely to influence numbers

But its not a single event - as previously mentioned, these types of gatherings have been happening for months. All manner of street drinking, protests/marches etc, "the scenes in salthill" and no spikes.

If it is the case that 50% of people would likely be isolating, then surely that gives plenty of credence to the idea that outdoor gatherings are low risk anyways? As there is less chance of a sick person being around in the first place!

is_that_so

Renjit wrote: »

List of EU countries and type of test required for travel:
https://www.etiasvisa.com/etias-news/pcr-covid-testing-travel-eur

404 error!

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

But its not a single event - as previously mentioned, these types of gatherings have been happening for months. All manner of street drinking, protests/marches etc, "the scenes in salthill" and no spikes.

If it is the case that 50% of people would likely be isolating, then surely that gives plenty of credence to the idea that outdoor gatherings are low risk anyways? As there is less chance of a sick person being around in the first place!

Maybe thats the reason we are much higher than most of Europe at the moment

FintanMcluskey

Arghus wrote: »

Great stuff there from Michael McNamara.

Spent thirty seconds on mute and then asked a question that had already been asked and answered.

What a dude.

I would be certain if a NPHET representative did similar you would excuse it as a genuine mistake

is_that_so

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I would be certain if a NPHET representative did similar you would excuse it as a genuine mistake

Ah now, Michael's got game in this area!

Arghus

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I would be certain if a NPHET representative did similar you would excuse it as a genuine mistake

No, to be honest, I'd probably think they'd look stupid too. If you spent months asking for someone to appear before a committee and then when the day finally comes, you end up asking an irrelevant question that someone has already asked and answered... looks pretty stupid to me.

If one of the NPHET members did that I'd wonder a bit about them alright, but so far I've only seen Michael McNamara do it.

Fantastic whataboutery though. You've it down to a fine art at this stage, fair play.

Timmy O Toole

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

So basically NEPHETs stance is that it's better to catch zero cases than some cases. Tony said that countries using Antigen tests for travel were countries that don't have PCR testing capacity. That's a flat out lie ?

I can affirm that I, in the last hour got a PCR test in a country which allows antigen test for travel. There I am €89 euro poorer for the experience all becuase Irish Government are being advised by Thundering idiots.

*...generously applies alcohol-based solution to hands whilst adjusting microphone height*

Good afternoon everybody.

Today we are reporting 329 new cases of COVID-19, bringing our national total to 267,596. There have been no additional deaths.

As of 8am this morning, there are currently 57 patients hospitalized with the virus with 19 in critical care.

Our 14-day incidence of the disease is 105 cases per 100,000 population.

TheDoctor

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe thats the reason we are much higher than most of Europe at the moment

Yeah 19 people in ICU.

One of the worst in Europe.....

Larbre34

It's great that there is plenty of ICU capacity. Better to be able to offer it to people to aid quicker recovery.

So good to see the moving average dropping away too and that the Alpha variant remains dominant and evident here while we effectively suppress the more dangerous Delta variant.

Vaccination is definitely beginning to sweep the virus away now, another 330,000+ doses scheduled to be put in arms this week, there should be great optimism about a much more normal feeling summer to come.

Timmy O Toole

TheDoctor wrote: »

Yeah 19 people in ICU.

One of the worst in Europe.....

Its asymptomatic cases that count, not serious illness!

FintanMcluskey

is_that_so wrote: »

Ah now, Michael's got game in this area!

In fairness to him he was the only politician to stick his head above the parapet and ask for discussion behind the decisions since March 2020

We’ve literally handed nPHEt the remit to run the country regardless of cost since 2020, even if the many of the decisions and guidance was in complete contrast to every other nation across the globe

On a side note I see it’s headline news that the planned corporate tax adjustments will cost Ireland €2,000,000,000 per year

Which is about the same amount per annum, as the current Covid bill in Ireland per fortnight since this began in 2020

It would take about 40 years for the corporate tax take reductions to be as costly as covid

amandstu

Larbre34 wrote: »

It's great that there is plenty of ICU capacity. Better to be able to offer it to people to aid quicker recovery.

So good to see the moving average dropping away too and that the Alpha variant remains dominant and evident here while we effectively suppress the more dangerous Delta variant.
.

Are we?Or are we just doing our best to slow its rate of increase.?

Any figures?

Is the ratio of Alpha to Delta stable? Decreasing? Increasing?

mloc123

amandstu wrote: »

Are we?Or are we just doing our best to slow its rate of increase.?

Any figures?

Is the ratio of Alpha to Delta stable? Decreasing? Increasing?

They are trying to slow it.. it is inevitable that delta will become dominant here, they just hope to buy an extra month of vaccination IMO

KrustyUCC

eskimohunt wrote: »

*...generously applies alcohol-based solution to hands whilst adjusting microphone height*

Good afternoon everybody.

Today we are reporting 329 new cases of COVID-19, bringing our national total to 267,596. There have been no additional deaths.

As of 8am this morning, there are currently 57 patients hospitalized with the virus with 19 in critical care.

Our 14-day incidence of the disease is 105 cases per 100,000 population.

Great to see those figures

Silentcorner

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

In fairness to him he was the only politician to stick his head above the parapet and ask for discussion behind the decisions since March 2020

We’ve literally handed nPHEt the remit to run the country regardless of cost since 2020, even if the many of the decisions and guidance was in complete contrast to every other nation across the globe

On a side note I see it’s headline news that the planned corporate tax adjustments will cost Ireland €2,000,000,000 per year

Which is about the same amount per annum, as the current Covid bill in Ireland per fortnight since this began in 2020

It would take about 40 years for the corporate tax take reductions to be as costly as covid

Whatever happened to the Covid Response committee he was chair of? I found him to be very good, given that the opposition in the Dail have seemed to have all collectively lost their voice.

is_that_so

mloc123 wrote: »

They are trying to slow it.. it is inevitable that delta will become dominant here, they just hope to buy an extra month of vaccination IMO

Not looking very likely to be much of an issue for us as there are very few cases.

MOR316

Deleted User wrote: »

Excuse me!

He did not say it was optimistic for it to go ahead. He said he would eat his hat if it went ahead. And I pointed it out that 25million in funding was made available to ensure such events could go ahead. Now thats a large commitment that they want such events to go ahead. So I advised that he may like some condiments with his hat, because I am optimistic that a commitment has been signalled.

And in what way is that condescending?

If anyone thinks it will go ahead, in the way it used to go ahead, they're badly mistaken.

A festival of that magnitude takes almost a full year of planning and organising. Funding of that amount does nothing to speed it up or to bring it all together on such short notice. Throw in that embarrassment from the Iveagh Gardens, it will be a, for the want of a better term, ****show!

About what? A few thousand, squared and completely spaced out in a field, at the end of September?

Pointless

mloc123

is_that_so wrote: »

Not looking very likely to be much of an issue for us as there are very few cases.

It already accounts for 25% up north, it is only a matter of time until it is dominant up there and then in turn here

marno21

The pace at which hospital and ICU figures continue to decline is amazing.

This day last year we reported 13 cases. 62 in hospital and 20 in ICU.

This day this year we reported 329 cases. 57 in hospital and 19 in ICU.

We've had a 16% drop in ICU in one day. If we head into July with ~30 in hospital and 10 in ICU there will be serious pressure to really open up. This is an incredibly mild illness for those getting it now. We need to get the country back on its feet and relax restrictions fully over the summer before winter hits.