Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

is_that_so

mloc123 wrote: »

It already accounts for 25% up north, it is only a matter of time until it is dominant up there and then in turn here

25% of a low number is an even lower number of cases.

mloc123

is_that_so wrote: »

25% of a low number is an even lower number of cases.

Sure... but at some stage a few weeks go it was 1% etc.. It will almost certainly replace the Alpha as the dominant strain here, as the R number for Delta is 2x(?) Alpha... the question is how long it will take

is_that_so

mloc123 wrote: »

Sure... but at some stage a few weeks go it was 1% etc.. It will almost certainly replace the Alpha as the dominant strain here, as the R number for Delta is 2x(?) Alpha... the question is how long it will take

Yeah, but we have a very tiny number of cases and no evidence that it's growing plus our own cases are declining.

declanflynn

My silly sister in law booked flights to Scotland for mid August, Do ye think she can go there and come back without some form of isolation on her return

muddypuppy

marno21 wrote: »

The pace at which hospital and ICU figures continue to decline is amazing.

This day last year we reported 13 cases. 62 in hospital and 20 in ICU.

This day this year we reported 329 cases. 57 in hospital and 19 in ICU.

We've had a 16% drop in ICU in one day. If we head into July with ~30 in hospital and 10 in ICU there will be serious pressure to really open up. This is an incredibly mild illness for those getting it now. We need to get the country back on its feet and relax restrictions fully over the summer before winter hits.

Not knowing the positivity rate is killing me. Last year around this time the weekly positivity rate was ~0.8%. I would assume it's about the same now, but we're doing lots more testing and finding lots more cases.
Did Reid or anyone else talk about positivity rate or number of tests done in the past month? I haven't seen anything.

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

Yeah 19 people in ICU.

One of the worst in Europe.....

Much higher than much of Europe does not equal worst.

TheDoctor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Much higher than much of Europe does not equal worst.

I said one of the worst (which MUCH higher would have to be.)

Is 4 people per ever million of population in ICU (the most severe/important cases) much higher than most of Europe?

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

He said he would eat his hat if it went ahead.

There was a poster last year that said he'd eat his shoe on youtube if there was another lockdown. I know the clothes shops are open again, but come on, guys..

Timmy O Toole

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Its asymptomatic cases that count, not serious illness!

I would love to see this evidence of high proportion of asymptomatic cases at the moment and not just lazy rhetoric

TheDoctor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I would love to see this evidence of high proportion of asymptomatic cases at the moment and not just lazy rhetoric

Well we are averaging say 300 cases a day so 2100 a week.

And there’s 57 people in hospital.

I’d say you’re looking at 5/6 admissions a day on a average to be at that number.

Which would suggests nearly all cases are mild.

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

I said one of the worst (which MUCH higher would have to be.)

Is 4 people per ever million of population in ICU (the most severe/important cases) much higher than most of Europe?

Which is not relevant to the discussion which is around the impact of gatherings on case numbers. The contention being they have no impact with the counter argument being that given we are supposedly completely repressed compared to all of Europe why have we higher cases than much of Europe

Timmy O Toole

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I would love to see this evidence of high proportion of asymptomatic cases at the moment and not just lazy rhetoric

Hospitalisations is your evidence.

Timmy O Toole

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Hospitalisations is your evidence.

None then

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Tony has today said that antigen tests should not be used as a 'green light' for "risky activities" per the Irish Times.

I'm still waiting to hear the impact of the previous risky activities, which were so risky he was 'absolutely shocked', as opposed to having only previously been 'shocked' or 'worried'.

He should be asked to explain why there appears to be no spike as a result of what happened that weekend, otherwise he is not going to sound like an authority on what is a risky activity.

Ficheall wrote: »

Like when your mum tells you not to play in traffic, and you decide she obviously doesn't know what she's talking about because you didn't get hit.

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Excellent! But hold on - isn't my point that nobody appears to have got hit? :rolleyes:

seamus wrote: »

Actually, your point is a common disingenuous misrepresentation of what that tweet actually said. Everyone is saying, "whERe is THe spiKE" even though Tony never said there would be.

His actual words were, "Enormous crowds- like a major open air party. This is what we do not need when we have made so much progress."

There was no prediction of a big spike. I'm not going to say he wasn't overstating it a bit, but his rationale is sound; it is/was too early for large uncontrolled public gatherings. One incident of a few hundred people on a street may not cause a measurable spike. But the same scenes repeated across the country on a nightly basis, could and likely would lead to new spikes.

But keep on claiming that one example of running in front of a car without being hit proves that it's safe for everyone to run in front of cars.

I think you are in a minority that think Tony wasn't suggesting there would be consequences to these outdoor gatherings. There really haven't been. And you know as well as I do, had there been any spike in the days following this outdoor gatherings, we'd never have heard the end of it from Holohan, with a "I told you so" add-on. No spike and not a word from Tony.

You quoted him, but left out the best bit "Absolutely shocked at scenes...
Now, normally, when you're absolutely shocked, it's because you fear consequences of the thing you are referring to. That's the implication of what he said to most people.

I won't even bother arguing your point (and Ficheall's) about my "claiming that one example of running in front of a car without being hit proves it's safe for everyone to run in front of cars".

Actually, I will. It's a ridiculous comparison, there were thousands of people out doing that partying. And if there is no particular spike noticed as a result, well it seems that perhaps Tony should have taken a valium and calmed the f down.

TheDoctor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Which is not relevant to the discussion which is around the impact of gatherings on case numbers. The contention being they have no impact with the counter argument being that given we are supposedly completely repressed compared to all of Europe why have we higher cases than much of Europe

Do we have much higher severe cases (hospitalisations) than much of Europe? After these gatherings?

TheDoctor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

None then

57 people in hospital when you’re averaging 300 cases a day would show that nearly all cases are mild.

normanoffside

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

So basically NEPHETs stance is that it's better to catch zero cases than some cases. Tony said that countries using Antigen tests for travel were countries that don't have PCR testing capacity. That's a flat out lie ?

Yes it's a flat our lie.
Look at Denmark (same population as us)

They are doing half a million tests a day 80k PCR and 420K antigen.
Event though 85% of their tests are Antigen they still have 4+ times the number of PCR test/day as us.

https://twitter.com/WoodfordinDK/status/1404776936279359492

And yes they use Antigen for travel.

TheDoctor

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes it's a flat our lie.
Look at Denmark (same population as us)

They are doing half a million tests a day 80k PCR and 420K antigen.
Event though 85% of their tests are Antigen they still have 4+ times the number of PCR test/day as us.

https://twitter.com/WoodfordinDK/status/1404776936279359492

And yes they use Antigen for travel.

Fake news Tony!

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

Fake news Tony!

I want my €89 back. Were my eyes watering more from the stick rammed up my nose or the cost of the test.

The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital at 8am this morning stood at 57, the lowest since September 13 last year.

The number in ICU is down to 19, down 4 in 24 hours; the lowest since September 29 last year.

Excellent!

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

57 people in hospital when you’re averaging 300 cases a day would show that nearly all cases are mild.

So not asymptomatic then

FishOnABike

declanflynn wrote: »

My silly sister in law booked flights to Scotland for mid August, Do ye think she can go there and come back without some form of isolation on her return

It's anyone's guess what will be required in two months time but at the moment, according to https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0615/1228167-covid19-ireland/

"People arriving in Ireland from Britain who are not fully vaccinated will have to self-isolate for ten days in changes that come into force with immediate effect.

They will have to receive a negative PCR test on day five and day ten before they can exit the period of quarantine.

Those who are vaccinated will still have to quarantine at a stated address for five days, but can resume normal activity after that period if they get a clear PCR test.

By mid July "unable to say if there will be any change to the new quarantine rules for people coming here from the UK by that date because of uncertainty over the Delta variant." according to https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/fully-vaccinated-can-go-on-holiday-abroad-from-july-19-without-pcr-test-says-holohan-40547346.html

By mid August she might still require 10 days isolation on her return or things might have changed by then.

TheDoctor

Deleted User wrote: »

So not asymptomatic then

It was around 30% in April and now with 3,250,000 vaccines handed out that number can only go one direction

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40262330.html

Consider also now the multiple walk in test centres that are specifically there to catch asymptomatic cases and the number of swabs they churn through a day.

Can only assume the asymptomatic number is quite high.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/high-level-of-asymptomatic-covid-cases-in-dublin-hot-spot-a-worry-1.4522485

This is also further supported by the number of cases versus numbers in hospital.

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes it's a flat our lie.
Look at Denmark (same population as us)

They are doing half a million tests a day 80k PCR and 420K antigen.
Event though 85% of their tests are Antigen they still have 4+ times the number of PCR test/day as us.

https://twitter.com/WoodfordinDK/status/1404776936279359492

And yes they use Antigen for travel.

By any chance does anyone know the type of test Denmark require to shorten the quarantine period that is required even when arrivals present negative antigen test?

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

It was around 30% in April and now with 3,250,000 vaccines handed out that number can only go one direction

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40262330.html

Consider also now the multiple walk in test centres that are specifically there to catch asymptomatic cases and the number of swabs they churn through a day.

Can only assume the asymptomatic number is quite high.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/high-level-of-asymptomatic-covid-cases-in-dublin-hot-spot-a-worry-1.4522485

How would that be when we don’t test vaccinated people with no symptoms?

This stuff is easy to confirm

TheDoctor

Deleted User wrote: »

How would that be when we don’t test vaccinated people with no symptoms?

This stuff is easy to confirm

I believe the points about walk in test centres and hospital numbers versus case numbers cover the point around asymptomatic being a high portion of the cases these days.

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

I believe the points about walk in test centres and hospital numbers versus case numbers cover the point around asymptomatic being a high portion of the cases these days.

Walk ins are predominantly pre symptomatic and symptomatic who for whatever reason don’t want to call their gp. Hospitalisations rates are low because those most likely to be hospitalised have been vaccinated

TheDoctor

Deleted User wrote: »

Walk ins are predominantly pre symptomatic and symptomatic who for whatever reason don’t want to call their gp. Hospitalisations rates are low because those most likely to be hospitalised have been vaccinated

How would you classify the 300 or so cases a day that dont need hospital treatment?

TheDoctor

TheDoctor wrote: »

How would you classify the 300 or so cases a day that dont need hospital treatment?

Younger on average

In early feb the hospitalisation rate was about 5%, now it’s about 2.5%.

TheDoctor

Deleted User wrote: »

Younger on average

In early feb the hospitalisation rate was about 5%, now it’s about 2.5%.

And with younger persons, a possible larger portion of cases being asymptotic?