Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Wolf359f

Stormyteacup wrote: »

The only power NPHET had was writing letters? Perhaps, but if you write letters with dire predictions backed up by (dodgy) mathematical modelling and set yourself up as experts in forecasting a pandemic resulting in the blame for possible deaths in the tens of thousand being laid at the feet of government should they disregard their ‘advice’ - then those would be powerful letters.

How do people still believe NPHET was advisory only is beyond me. They were very publicly deferred to for months, by a weak government and were well aware that their recommendations would be enacted without question.

Thankfully that seems to coming to an end now, albeit long overdue. I suspect once NPHET get round to publishing their minutes from the past seven weeks we will see evidence of deviation from their advice.

They are still only letters. Government have final say.
NPHET could write 2 letters tomorrow, 1 to reopen fully, 1 to keep going as we are and let Government choose the path. If Government chooses a path that doesn't work out, people will blame NPHET. Dammed if they do, dammed if they don't.

Very few countries have had their expert group predict this pandemic with 100% or close to it as possible. But of course, NPHET is the worst in the world right?

Long over due you say? NPHET is created and dissolved by government, I think the MoH has that power, but it can be disbanded with a single signature from Government, you make it sound like NPHET says when they are done.

Another note on advisers, a lot of people blame the Government on the 2008 financial crisis, although most Government advisers (and opposition) didn't raise any red flags (I don't know if they encouraged it, they probably did).
This time around Government learned, pass the buck to the advisers so Government stays clean and all blame can be laid at the advisers feet.

political analyst

Stormyteacup wrote: »

The only power NPHET had was writing letters? Perhaps, but if you write letters with dire predictions backed up by (dodgy) mathematical modelling and set yourself up as experts in forecasting a pandemic resulting in the blame for possible deaths in the tens of thousand being laid at the feet of government should they disregard their ‘advice’ - then those would be powerful letters.

How do people still believe NPHET was advisory only is beyond me. They were very publicly deferred to for months, by a weak government and were well aware that their recommendations would be enacted without question.

Thankfully that seems to coming to an end now, albeit long overdue. I suspect once NPHET get round to publishing their minutes from the past seven weeks we will see evidence of deviation from their advice.

Authorities on both sides of the Irish Sea were aware of the variants that are more contagious than the original strain of the virus. I have resentment about the restrictions but NPHET have been proved right several times. If we had stayed at Level 3 when last November's lockdown ended instead of moving to Level 2 shortly before Christmas then the spread of the 'English variant' in this country might have been prevented.

Ficheall

Stormyteacup wrote: »

backed up by (dodgy) mathematical modelling

I'm curious - what were your mathematical models?

podgeandrodge

Can someone clarify what MM said earlier: "Visitors from up to three other households allowed inside your home" - is Govt. advice not based on vaccinations at this stage - there is a difference between visitors that are vaccinated and those who are not - surely the advice should be twofold depending on this?

AdamD

political analyst wrote: »

In an interview for the BBC History magazine, the historian Professor Niall Ferguson of Stanford University said about the 1957-58 influenza pandemic:



Ferguson said that health experts told Eisenhower that there was no point in trying to stop the spread of the disease and that they had to accept excess mortality until a vaccine could be developed. That is what took place. There was no lockdown, and they spent a tiny fraction of the money spent by the US government in the past year.

Obviously, Covid is a different type of disease, but the effect of this pandemic on public health worldwide has been similar to that of the 1950s pandemic.

Why were the public throughout the world much less likely to accept excess mortality last year than in 1957?

Because we can develop vaccines significantly quicker now?

If vaccines weren't on the cards I imagine our response would have been very different, but it was clear within a few months that they were (except to the perpetually pessimistic who talked them down for as long as possible).

Deeper Blue

Why are people still mentioning Christmas as if it's somehow still relevant?

political analyst

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Why are people still mentioning Christmas as if it's somehow still relevant?

Because of what could have and should have been done instead of going to Level 2 last December! Level 3 throughout December after the second lockdown might have prevented the spread of the English variant here in the Republic.

bodhrandude

political analyst wrote: »

Because of what could have and should have been done instead of going to Level 2 last December! Level 3 throughout December after the second lockdown might have prevented the spread of the English variant here in the Republic.

Ehhhh! Not really as we didn't have MHQ at the time, so the government was relying on the peoples good will of self isolating or self quarantining in their own house or apartment when they returned from their holidays as well as a PCR negative test.

blowitupref

As of tonight 44 in hospital and 15 in ICU.

amandstu

Wolf359f wrote: »

Delta variant cases are reducing in Ireland. I don't see how figures here will increase next week based on NI cases increasing.

Have you a link (or similar) to show that figures for the Delta variant are reducing at the moment?

manofwisdom

amandstu wrote: »

Have you a link (or similar) to show that figures for the Delta variant are reducing at the moment?

Yesterday press briefing.

"Incidence of the Delta variant has been dropping in recent weeks - 40 new cases in Week 18, 11 in Week 22"

Prof Philip Nolan says that's "reassuring"

political analyst

bodhrandude wrote: »

Ehhhh! Not really as we didn't have MHQ at the time, so the government was relying on the peoples good will of self isolating or self quarantining in their own house or apartment when they returned from their holidays as well as a PCR negative test.

Why didn't we?

bodhrandude

political analyst wrote: »

Why didn't we?

Because the government spent ages talking about it before actually enacting it, it wasn't till 26th March that it came into effect.

amandstu

manofwisdom wrote: »

Yesterday press briefing.

"Incidence of the Delta variant has been dropping in recent weeks - 40 new cases in Week 18, 11 in Week 22"

Prof Philip Nolan says that's "reassuring"

Yes,extremely reassuring if it is a trend that is maintained

Actually very surprising ,although agreeably so.

(apparently Delta rates are dropping faster than the Covid rates overall.How could that be? Could they be nearly all "imported" with very little community transmission at this point?)

Cork2021

Subject to change, but all in all good news!!

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1406021227093835781?s=21

irishguy1983

Cork2021 wrote: »

Subject to change, but all in all good news!!

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1406021227093835781?s=21

44??? Bloody hell that is good!!! Anyone able to confirm when it was that low??!

No point in banging on about it but would be nice to see our government respond to data rather than be so rigid with dates.....I am no scientist/doctor but quite clear to see across Europe ‘outside stuff’ is really not a spreader...Maybe allow more at matches....

MadYaker

Stormyteacup wrote: »

The only power NPHET had was writing letters? Perhaps, but if you write letters with dire predictions backed up by (dodgy) mathematical modelling and set yourself up as experts in forecasting a pandemic resulting in the blame for possible deaths in the tens of thousand being laid at the feet of government should they disregard their ‘advice’ - then those would be powerful letters.

How do people still believe NPHET was advisory only is beyond me. They were very publicly deferred to for months, by a weak government and were well aware that their recommendations would be enacted without question.

Thankfully that seems to coming to an end now, albeit long overdue. I suspect once NPHET get round to publishing their minutes from the past seven weeks we will see evidence of deviation from their advice.

What specific problems did you have with their mathematical modelling?

TefalBrain

The vaccines are working better than anyone would have ever expected and the uptake is huge, highest in the world per capita i believe.

We have 44 people in hospital with the virus out of a population of 5 million people and yet we continue with the most ridiculous measures in curtailing peoples lives. The vulnerable are protected, let's get on with living.

bennyineire

There can be no doubt now for further opening up on July 5th surly

TheDoctor

bennyineire wrote: »

There can be no doubt now for further opening up on July 5th surly

Oh I’m sure some excuse can be made up

political analyst

This week, the Restaurants Association of Ireland went to the High Court to seek leave for a challenge to the ban on its members having indoor dining.

Given that those restaurants will be allowed to have indoor dining from 5 July, what's the point in starting a case now?

Working class heroes

political analyst wrote: »

This week, the Restaurants Association of Ireland went to the High Court to seek leave for a challenge to the ban on its members having indoor dining.

Given that those restaurants will be allowed to have indoor dining from 5 July, what's the point in starting a case now?

Compensation?

PmMeUrDogs

political analyst wrote: »

This week, the Restaurants Association of Ireland went to the High Court to seek leave for a challenge to the ban on its members having indoor dining.

Given that those restaurants will be allowed to have indoor dining from 5 July, what's the point in starting a case now?

To prove a point, and in the event of further lockdowns?

PTH2009

TheDoctor wrote: »

Oh I’m sure some excuse can be made up

Yep variants and the conditions in other countries

'We remain cautious just incase, just incase'

The numbers are brilliant and Paul Reid is surprisingly very positive compared to others

jhegarty

political analyst wrote: »

This week, the Restaurants Association of Ireland went to the High Court to seek leave for a challenge to the ban on its members having indoor dining.

Given that those restaurants will be allowed to have indoor dining from 5 July, what's the point in starting a case now?

I am guessing that are worried July 5th will be pushed back because of the uk.

ArthurDayne

Stormyteacup wrote: »

The only power NPHET had was writing letters? Perhaps, but if you write letters with dire predictions backed up by (dodgy) mathematical modelling and set yourself up as experts in forecasting a pandemic resulting in the blame for possible deaths in the tens of thousand being laid at the feet of government should they disregard their ‘advice’ - then those would be powerful letters.

How do people still believe NPHET was advisory only is beyond me. They were very publicly deferred to for months, by a weak government and were well aware that their recommendations would be enacted without question.

Thankfully that seems to coming to an end now, albeit long overdue. I suspect once NPHET get round to publishing their minutes from the past seven weeks we will see evidence of deviation from their advice.

You’ll know from my posts that I am no advocate of the lockdown — but I do think (in my humble opinion) that, while NPHET are certainly not beyond reproach or fallibility, we need to be careful in how we characterise their role. I’d agree that there has been a constitutional concern in my mind over the way in which NPHET has in a de facto sense become a significant determiner of public policy and far-reaching incursions into civil liberties and freedoms — but I think we need to be clear that this is a product of how the government has interacted with NPHET and the manner in which they have applied their advice. It is not by NPHET’s design.

It is not for NPHET to say “OK the government is likely to take this advice to the letter so we should include warnings about the socioeconomic effects of this advice that could have multigenerational adverse impact”. That is not their remit, nor should it be. Their remit in the context of Covid is to advise the government on how to stop it — it is the government’s job to translate that advice into holistic national policy. The problem (for me anyway) is that the government has not applied it holistically, but rather has for the most part hidden behind it to avoid nuanced thinking in the measures. It’s easy for the government to say “right, here is what the public health experts so this is what we will do” — even if that tacitly is also a way of saying “we won’t do anything to make that advice more sustainable from the perspective of public policy”. Furthermore, it gives them a kind of scapegoat in public discourse, where Tony Holohan & Co. become the faces of lockdown, rather than the actual government who imposed it.

Basically, I guess what I’m saying is not to let the government successfully deflect its responsibilities to NPHET — a group who I think for the most part have acted in good faith (though again, not beyond reproach) as regards the context of what they are tasked with doing.

Cork2021

ICU down to 14 now after a discharge

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

TheDoctor

Were today’s numbers just released?

PmMeUrDogs

393 cases

corkie

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1406221877413040130

As of midnight, Friday 18 June, we are reporting
393*
confirmed cases of #COVID19.

14 in ICU. 48 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.

53 in Hospital according to the hub, figures must have changed since 8am?
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/0814b13a2f2b4458a36105502c8e92e8


Early post today, with it been delayed till after 8 yesterday