Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

paulie21

288 cases
49 hospital
15 ICU

Goldengirl

eagle eye wrote: »

I never heard of the ECDC until you posted this. How long are they going?

Ahh are you taking the proverbial, ee?

Klonker

Goldengirl wrote: »

Less than 50 in hospital???
Covid maybe..
Hospitals back to normal activity while maintaining precautions and trying to get everything done with a backlog due to Covid and a barely functioning system due to cyber hack, only gradually getting sorted. It has completely thrown a spanner into the already rusty works.
All we need now is what is happening in the UK.
Hospitalisation is going up there, how severe maybe not an issue hopefully, but increases in Covid numbers affect normal services.
People don't just lie in a bed and get better, they need nursing care, resources special Covid wards...

If everybody fully vaccinated we will have a chance to get back to whatever is considered normal activity at least.

Of course I'm talking about under 50 with covid. Everytime someone mentions vaccines in here should we assume they're talking about all types of vaccines or can we assume they mean covid vaccines?

My point still stands. If we have restrictions with 50 patients in hospital with covid what will we do if in Winter after all who want vaccines are vaccinated this increases to 300? What level are we going to accept?

PTH2009

Klonker wrote: »

Of course I'm talking about under 50 with covid. Everytime someone mentions vaccines in here should we assume they're talking about all types of vaccines or can we assume they mean covid vaccines?

My point still stands. If we have restrictions with 50 patients in hospital with covid what will we do if in Winter after all who want vaccines are vaccinated this increases to 300? What level are we going to accept?

Risk factors are non existent nowadays

hynesie08

PTH2009 wrote: »

Risk factors are non existent nowadays

I'll inform the WHO.

Klonker

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://www.skysports.com/football/news/12020/12328124/stephen-kenny-republic-of-ireland-boss-brands-hungary-fans-who-booed-his-players-taking-a-knee-as-incomprehensible
Wow who could have guessed that this homophobia disguised as child welfare was not a single issue that existed in a vaccuum but just a symptom of growing levels of of intolerance of minorities in wider Hungarian society .Biiiiiiiig shocker . I'm sure Hungary is going great places, and will be a much more cohesive and peaceful society in years to come !

Think you're in the wrong forum buddy. What's any of that to do with covid?

bb1234567

Klonker wrote: »

Think you're in the wrong forum buddy. What's any of that to do with covid?

Indeed I was!

Polar101

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Great news, but I find it hard to understand how cooked up for a couple of hours on a plane is fine, but sitting in a restaurant isn't. Is it simply just the air filtration or how can they be safer "indoors" compared to other locations?

You need a negative test result to get on a plane. You don't need one to sit at a restaurant table.

PatrickDoherty

Polar101 wrote: »

You need a negative test result to get on a plane. You don't need one to sit at a restaurant table.

*Yet

Renjit

PatrickDoherty wrote: »

*Yet

Sun is not dead, yet.

irishguy1983

Ficheall wrote: »

Even if it were to turn out not to be true?

No sorry I meant I was hoping someone in authority/respected could guarantee us it is over once 70/80% are fully vaccinated...I presume no one can do that...

Goldengirl

Klonker wrote: »

Of course I'm talking about under 50 with covid. Everytime someone mentions vaccines in here should we assume they're talking about all types of vaccines or can we assume they mean covid vaccines?

My point still stands. If we have restrictions with 50 patients in hospital with covid what will we do if in Winter after all who want vaccines are vaccinated this increases to 300? What level are we going to accept?

Ah sorry , I do get you .
I was just saying regardless of vaccinations if sick people with Covid being admitted they take more resources than non Covid .
To be honest at the rate our vaccinations are going I am not expecting a surge this Winter .

locked up for months in winter and here's one of the most stunning sundays anyone could hope for Plus you can travel anywhere and yet this thread has posts a plenty!!

take a day off will you!! the Con's to your Pros will be there when you come back I bet.

kleiner feigling

Goldengirl wrote: »

Ah sorry , I do get you .
I was just saying regardless of vaccinations if sick people with Covid being admitted they take more resources than non Covid .
To be honest at the rate our vaccinations are going I am not expecting a surge this Winter .

I really think the true test of the vaccine effectiveness will ONLY come in winter when people are cooped up inside more, and immune systems are down a bit etc.

Furthermore as the recent FOI (Pfizer biontech) from Japan medicines regulator showed, lipid nanoparticles from the vaccine do travel to other organs in the body post-vaccination. So upon exposure to coronaviruses will there be inflammatory responses in other parts of the body, and production of spike proteins external to the respiratory system? We simply don't know, and won't know until fully vaccinated people are exposed in significant numbers.

https://www.docdroid.net/xq0Z8B0/pfizer-report-japanese-government-pdf#page=23 - pg 6-7 Pharmacokinetics Organ Distribution in rat model.
Regulations do not require organ distribution data in Europe or America for vaccines, as the assumption is that the dose stays in the arm muscle(e.g. like in standard flu jab) EDIT - Goes into the arm muscle and subsequently the lymph system.

An Ciarraioch

Looking at the Datahub today, ICU is down by 2 to 13 this morning, so the slight uptick in hospitalisations (to 53) is of less concern.

Goldengirl

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looking at the Datahub today, ICU is down by 2 to 13 this morning, so the slight uptick in hospitalisations (to 53) is of less concern.

While hospitalisation and ICU numbers are of very little concern, yes..
just to point out that ICU numbers don't tend to go up until 2 to 3 weeks after hospitalisation and other numbers.

Cork2021

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looking at the Datahub today, ICU is down by 2 to 13 this morning, so the slight uptick in hospitalisations (to 53) is of less concern.

On the 30th of June last year we had 19 in hospitals with 13 of those in ICU.
Might be a stretch to get to 19 by Wednesday week but icu will hopefully be under 13 which is the main thing!
Also we were averaging around 10 cases a day then we are at about 320 now!
Vaccines have been fantastic

Goldengirl

kleiner feigling wrote: »

I really think the true test of the vaccine effectiveness will ONLY come in winter when people are cooped up inside more, and immune systems are down a bit etc.

Furthermore as the recent FOI (Pfizer biontech) from Japan medicines regulator showed, lipid nanoparticles from the vaccine do travel to other organs in the body post-vaccination. So upon exposure to coronaviruses will there be inflammatory responses in other parts of the body, and production of spike proteins external to the respiratory system? We simply don't know, and won't know until fully vaccinated people are exposed in significant numbers.

https://www.docdroid.net/xq0Z8B0/pfizer-report-japanese-government-pdf#page=23 - pg 6-7 Pharmacokinetics Organ Distribution in rat model.
Regulations do not require organ distribution data in Europe or America for vaccines, as the assumption is that the dose stays in the arm muscle (e.g. like in standard flu jab)

Once absorbed from the muscles in the arm , all medicines go to various organs in the body via your circulatory system .
That is how they work and is what is expected .
Not going to fight the virus off with a good right hook and nothing else

Yes, they can cause an inflammatory response which is part of your body's natural immune response .
This may be more in those with inflammatory conditions like arthritis and diabetes among others .
Those patients would see a few weeks probably of changes in inflammatory blood markers if on serial blood monitoring , but may not notice any changes themselves.
Usually settles within a few weeks .

JDD

Looking at hospitalisations in the UK, their 7 day average admissions have doubled since mid-May, from just under 100 admissions a day to 196 in the last day or so.

For comparison purposes, when looking at similar numbers, at the start of the 2nd wave last September their hospitalisations doubled in the space of 2 weeks, and again 2 weeks later. This was pre-Kent variant and pre-Delta variant.

This all points to the fact that even where infections are doubling at a much faster rate, hospitalisations will increase at a much slower rate. I'd wager that hospitalisations will hit a peak in the next two months in the UK as they complete round 2 of the AZ vaccinations, and will peak at levels nowhere near those experienced in January.

In hindsight they probably could have opened fully today. Johnson is probably kicking himself.

It's good news for us though. While we haven't caught up with the UK in terms of numbers vaccinated, we are also a couple of weeks behind in terms of prevalence of the Delta variant. It is inevitable that it will become the dominant variant in the next few weeks, but it does look like we will have got closer to the UKs vaccination numbers and any increase in hospitalisations - which again, I think is inevitable - will be limited in terms of numbers and duration.

Goldengirl

JDD wrote: »

Looking at hospitalisations in the UK, their 7 day average admissions have doubled since mid-May, from just under 100 admissions a day to 196 in the last day or so.

For comparison purposes, when looking at similar numbers, at the start of the 2nd wave last September their hospitalisations doubled in the space of 2 weeks, and again 2 weeks later. This was pre-Kent variant and pre-Delta variant.

This all points to the fact that even where infections are doubling at a much faster rate, hospitalisations will increase at a much slower rate. I'd wager that hospitalisations will hit a peak in the next two months in the UK as they complete round 2 of the AZ vaccinations, and will peak at levels nowhere near those experienced in January.

In hindsight they probably could have opened fully today. Johnson is probably kicking himself.

It's good news for us though. While we haven't caught up with the UK in terms of numbers vaccinated, we are also a couple of weeks behind in terms of prevalence of the Delta variant. It is inevitable that it will become the dominant variant in the next few weeks, but it does look like we will have got closer to the UKs vaccination numbers and any increase in hospitalisations - which again, I think is inevitable - will be limited in terms of numbers and duration.

Read that they think it will peak at 20% of last wave as vaccinations knock it in the head in UK .

JDD

Goldengirl wrote: »

Read that they think it will peak at 20% of last wave as vaccinations knock it in the head in UK .

It certainly makes sense, and it does make you wonder why the UK health advisors advised a delay to a full reopening.

I would have assumed that they knew that the virus circulating, even in vastly increased numbers, in the younger population would not lead to rapidly increasing hospitalisation numbers. I thought that they had some data from India that led them to think that hospitalisation in the younger population would be more prevalent than in previous waves, and that's why they delayed reopening. Now it just looks like a knee jerk reaction.

Anyhoo, this is all good for us. Delta becoming the predominant variant here, and a sharp increase in those testing positive, should not derail our reopening plans.

Goldengirl

JDD wrote: »

It certainly makes sense, and it does make you wonder why the UK health advisors advised a delay to a full reopening.

I would have assumed that they knew that the virus circulating, even in vastly increased numbers, in the younger population would not lead to rapidly increasing hospitalisation numbers. I thought that they had some data from India that led them to think that hospitalisation in the younger population would be more prevalent than in previous waves, and that's why they delayed reopening. Now it just looks like a knee jerk reaction.

Anyhoo, this is all good for us. Delta becoming the predominant variant here, and a sharp increase in those testing positive, should not derail our reopening plans.

I guess they are just not opening up fully until they know they are getting it under control , breathing space .
Our " abundance of" bloody " caution " will probably save us from going backwards hopefully .

kleiner feigling

Goldengirl wrote: »

Once absorbed from the muscles in the arm , all medicines go to various organs in the body via your circulatory system.

Can you clarify for example, which component/s of the influenza vaccine or other traditional vaccines enter specific organs?

My understanding is that for standard intramuscular vaccines, the immune response is localized near the injection site, and the record (rather than the ingredients) of this immune response is recorded in the nearby lymph node to be transported throughout the lymph system in case of future reinfection.

Turtwig

Think you may be confusing UK current scenario with US winter scenarios. US are predicting an overall winter peak 20% of previous peaks. There is high levels of regional variability to this. Some states may be over 50% due to poor vaccination uptake.

The UK are predicting a wave of hospitalisation from delta that due to the delay in reopening should not exceed 50% of the January peak. If they can get even more vaccinated in the interim the peak should be lower.

Turtwig

If someone loses their vaccination arm after vaccination the vaccine still works. Only way this can happen is if the "vaccine" travels through the body. Yes, scientists are such cold bastards and bitches they studied the effects of vaccination on people and mice who had their vaccination arm amputated shortly after vaccination.

Apparently five minutes after the flu jab the vaccine is pretty much everywhere in your body as the intramuscular site is chosen due to the high amount of blood vessels. Muscles also make it easier for the vaccines to drain into the lymphatic vessels.

Goldengirl

Turtwig wrote: »

Think you may be confusing UK current scenario with US winter scenarios. US are predicting an overall winter peak 20% of previous peaks. There is high levels of regional variability to this. Some states may be over 50% due to poor vaccination uptake.

The UK are predicting a wave of hospitalisation from delta that due to the delay in reopening should not exceed 50% of the January peak. If they can get even more vaccinated in the interim the peak should be lower.

You are right ,it was US that predicted 20% , apologies.
With regional variations depending on vaccinations .

Goldengirl

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Can you clarify for example, which component/s of the influenza vaccine or other traditional vaccines enter specific organs?

My understanding is that for standard intramuscular vaccines, the immune response is localized near the injection site, and the record (rather than the ingredients) of this immune response is recorded in the nearby lymph node to be transported throughout the lymph system in case of future reinfection.

This is a good article explaining it .....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-01-08/covid-19-vaccine-injection-upper-arm-muscle-deltoid-immune/13031918

JDD

Turtwig wrote: »

Think you may be confusing UK current scenario with US winter scenarios. US are predicting an overall winter peak 20% of previous peaks. There is high levels of regional variability to this. Some states may be over 50% due to poor vaccination uptake.

The UK are predicting a wave of hospitalisation from delta that due to the delay in reopening should not exceed 50% of the January peak. If they can get even more vaccinated in the interim the peak should be lower.

Wow, 50% of the January peak would be 2k admissions a day. Which at the current rate of increase, it would take until mid-September to reach that high. Surely everyone who wants a vaccination in the UK will be vaccinated well before then? Perhaps they thought the rate of increase in hospitalisations would also increase? I.e. instead of doubling every month, it would double every three weeks or something? I can't understand the basis for that, when the numbers vaccinated is only going to go upwards.

EDIT: I understand that as things reopen, infections are going to increase quicker. And if infection numbers increase quicker, so will hospitalisations. But even taking into account the transmissability of the Delta variant, and even if the UK fully open tomorrow, I just can't understand how they would expect hospitalisations to hit 50% of the January peak, with the vast majority of the cohorts that were hospitalised in January being vaccinated.

kleiner feigling

Turtwig wrote: »

Apparently five minutes after the flu jab the vaccine is pretty much everywhere in your body as the intramuscular site is chosen due to the high amount of blood vessels. Muscles also make it easier for the vaccines to drain into the lymphatic vessels.

Any source for this, and any data for the components/excipients that enter organs, and in what quantities.
Genuinely curious to see how the new technologies compare to standard vaccines.

Goldengirl

JDD wrote: »

Wow, 50% of the January peak would be 2k admissions a day. Which at the current rate of increase, it would take until mid-September to reach that high. Surely everyone who wants a vaccination in the UK will be vaccinated well before then? Perhaps they thought the rate of increase in hospitalisations would also increase? I.e. instead of doubling every month, it would double every three weeks or something? I can't understand the basis for that, when the numbers vaccinated is only going to go upwards.

EDIT: I understand that as things reopen, infections are going to increase quicker. And if infection numbers increase quicker, so will hospitalisations. But even taking into account the transmissability of the Delta variant, and even if the UK fully open tomorrow, I just can't understand how they would expect hospitalisations to hit 50% of the January peak, with the vast majority of the cohorts that were hospitalised in January being vaccinated.

Problem is those people who won't accept a vaccine , unfortunately.