Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

AlmightyCushion

bucketybuck wrote: »

Currently when I open the RTE news website the top headlines, centre page are:


And then some clown on Boards will try and claim that there is no narrative being pushed in the Irish media.

The biggest and most prominent story on the site is the 999 call story. If they were pushing the fear narrative as much as you claimed why isn't some covid or delta variant story at the very top. On the RTE site there is only one story about covid. If they were pushing the fear narrative why isn't the front page of RTE filled with covid stories instead of stories about Britney Spears' court case and Kellher getting a deal with Liverpool.

seamus

Cork2021 wrote: »

This can’t be right???? Only 210?? Not even a days case numbers!!

Yeah, that's right. That's the number officially detected, based on sequenced samples. They don't sequence them all.

It represents 22 Delta variant cases sequenced in the last 7 days (it was 188 at the last briefing). Which is not a very useful number without knowing how many were sequenced in total, but at a basic level it suggests that it is not growing at any concerning pace, if it's growing at all.

Wolf359f

Cork2021 wrote: »

This can’t be right???? Only 210?? Not even a days case numbers!!

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408060078389829632?s=21

Last report had it at 59 up to May 8th.
So +151 in.... Like 6.5 weeks?
But they are estimating it's taking up 20% of all new cases? Well it was initially worded as could be up to 20% of sequenced cases and then passed through the media, it pops out the other side as 20% of all cases.

Wolf359f

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, that's right. That's the number officially detected, based on sequenced samples. They don't sequence them all.

It represents 22 Delta variant cases sequenced in the last 7 days (it was 188 at the last briefing). Which is not a very useful number without knowing how many were sequenced in total, but at a basic level it suggests that it is not growing at any concerning pace, if it's growing at all.

It's an old report
But looks like they were sequencing close 40% of all new cases, so a decent amount.

KrustyUCC

Cork2021 wrote: »

This can’t be right???? Only 210?? Not even a days case numbers!!

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408060078389829632?s=21

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1405547519610744834

A whopping 30 cases increase in a week

Just over 4 a day

Very concerning according to Tony Holohan's tweet

However if the delta variant accounts for 20% of all cases how has it only gone up 30 cases?

We've had more than 150 cases every day not to mind in a week

TheDoctor

KrustyUCC wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1405547519610744834

A whopping 30 cases increase in a week

Just over 4 a day

Very concerning according to Tony Holohan's tweet

However if the delta variant accounts for 20% of all cases how has it only gone up 30 cases?

We've had more than 150 cases every day not to mind in a week

Seems to be the same level of concerning, all those people meeting up in Dublin city centre 3 weeks ago was.

bucketybuck

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The biggest and most prominent story on the site is the 999 call story. If they were pushing the fear narrative as much as you claimed why isn't some covid or delta variant story at the very top.

You are aware that they change the site throughout the day, yes?

seamus

Wolf359f wrote: »

But they are estimating it's taking up 20% of all new cases? Well it was initially worded as could be up to 20% of sequenced cases and then passed through the media, it pops out the other side as 20% of all cases.

Well, it's OK to say that, it's how statistics work. You take a sample of the wider population, observe the data and then make inferences.

However, the smaller your sample compared to the total, the less accurate your predictions.

If they tell us this week that 40% of all new cases are Delta variant, then we know that they've based that on just 22 new detections. Which means the full sample size is just 55 out of ~2000 cases. Which is....not a lot.

TefalBrain

Cork2021 wrote: »

This can’t be right???? Only 210?? Not even a days case numbers!!

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408060078389829632?s=21

This is ridiculous now. The vaccines are working and the new variant has failed to have any dent on our hospitals some of which have absolutely zero covid cases on their wards. Pressure on the government big time now to go ahead with the reopening and i'd even say they will come under increasing pressure now to bring forward the 19th of July date for travel.

ypres5

TheDoctor wrote: »

Seems to be the same level of concerning, all those people meeting up in Dublin city centre 3 weeks ago was.

Have they finished digging all the mass graves in Phoenix Park in the aftermath of the scenes in Dublin a few weeks ago?

Wolf359f

seamus wrote: »

Well, it's OK to say that, it's how statistics work. You take a sample of the wider population, observe the data and then make inferences.

However, the smaller your sample compared to the total, the less accurate your predictions.

If they tell us this week that 40% of all new cases are Delta variant, then we know that they've based that on just 22 new detections. Which means the full sample size is just 55 out of ~2000 cases. Which is....not a lot.

Also makes it worse if they are doing targeted sequencing. Someone with travel history from the UK tests positive, they sequence that, and any positive contacts. Means you could be finding a higher % than at a population level.

Needless to say, it's obvious Delta will eventually become dominant, it's all a race between it's spread and the vaccine rollout now.

Turtwig

Is there not a two to three week lag between a suspect delta case and confirmation?
Or has this been eliminated.

KrustyUCC

Over the last week not including today

348
294
284
288
393
313
373

2293

If Delta variant is 20% of cases that should be 459 cases in last week

Maxface

The virus is still out there, we all know that. It will spread more as we open up, of course, that is what it does. We have many more tools now than what we did last year to deal with it. We have a much better understanding of it. We have our vulnerable vaccinated and our hospitals are not under pressure and ready for a surge I presume (if it comes). We can mobilise targeted testing to areas to find problem areas and schools are closing or closed which was or never was a problem. We can deal with the perceived uncertainties by locking down, or use the knowledge and experience we have to deal with it at hand with what we know.

TheDoctor

Maxface wrote: »

The virus is still out there, we all know that. It will spread more as we open up, of course, that is what it does. We have many more tools now than what we did last year to deal with it. We have a much better understanding of it. We have our vulnerable vaccinated and our hospitals are not under pressure and ready for a surge I presume (if it comes). We can mobilise targeted testing to areas to find problem areas and schools are closing or closed which was or never was a problem. We can deal with the perceived uncertainties by locking down, or use the knowledge and experience we have to deal with it at hand with what we know.

Level 5 it is

When asked how many of the new coronavirus patients have been vaccinated, Levy said that "We're looking at a rate of 40 to 50 percent," and said that the figure is concerning.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-covid-delta-variant-two-month-record-1.9935923

Maxface

TheDoctor wrote: »

Level 5 it is

Might be the best thing, lock down the whole place, put all on the pup and see how quick it changes.

Klonker

seamus wrote: »

Well, it's OK to say that, it's how statistics work. You take a sample of the wider population, observe the data and then make inferences.

However, the smaller your sample compared to the total, the less accurate your predictions.

If they tell us this week that 40% of all new cases are Delta variant, then we know that they've based that on just 22 new detections. Which means the full sample size is just 55 out of ~2000 cases. Which is....not a lot.

They sequence about 20% of cases.

They actually target sequencing for the new variants. Such as people in hotel quarentine, people who travel from UK lately and then they'll track and sequence their contacts also.

Looks like Tony at best purposedly misled or at worst outright lied. This needs to be followed up by media as to where his 20% figure came from.

Polar101

isha wrote: »

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-covid-delta-variant-two-month-record-1.9935923

And today they had 82 cases. 1 death in the last 2 weeks.

Sounds like the vaccines work quite well.

seamus

Klonker wrote: »

They sequence about 20% of cases.

They actually target sequencing for the new variants. Such as people in hotel quarentine, people who travel from UK lately and then they'll track and sequence their contacts also.

Looks like Tony at best purposedly misled or at worst outright lied. This needs to be followed up by media as to where his 20% figure came from.

So if we assume Krusty's figure of ~2300 new cases last week, 20% sequenced gives us 460 cases sequenced. 22 new Deltas detected. Or 30 depending on who reported.

But it doesn't matter because it still means that somewhere between 5% and 6.5% of sequenced cases are Delta. And if sequencing is being targetted, then our Delta numbers are likely much lower than they say.

OR it could mean that we only sequenced a tiny number of cases.

I wouldn't immediately accuse anyone of lying, but something doesn't add up. Someone has misread a slide, or overly simplified the data.

MerlinSouthDub

304 new cases (compared to 373 last Thursday)

no delta surge.

giveitholly

On what grounds can they justify not pushing ahead with further reopening on July 5th?

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1408083334488641540?s=19

Klonker

seamus wrote: »

So if we assume Krusty's figure of ~2300 new cases last week, 20% sequenced gives us 460 cases sequenced. 22 new Deltas detected. Or 30 depending on who reported.

But it doesn't matter because it still means that somewhere between 5% and 6.5% of sequenced cases are Delta. And if sequencing is being targetted, then our Delta numbers are likely much lower than they say.

OR it could mean that we only sequenced a tiny number of cases.

I wouldn't immediately accuse anyone of lying, but something doesn't add up. Someone has misread a slide, or overly simplified the data.

Did you not see the whiole antigen debacle at the transport committee. Purposely misleading, giving data for self administered tests and then showing how to fake them when no one is looking for self administered tests for travel. Also no mention that even those self administered tests picked up 80% of likely infectious cases.

This 20% tweet needs to be queried by the media but I doubt it will. Is it not a bit of a coincidence Tony tweeted this the day after Leo disagreed on travel?

Arghus

Turtwig wrote: »

Is there not a two to three week lag between a suspect delta case and confirmation?
Or has this been eliminated.

AFAIK there's still a wait of about a fortnight. Someone else might have more up to date information, but that was the case up until very, very recently and I haven't heard anything to the contrary.

Dickie10

would i be right in saying many of those getting the covid virus are between 16-40? how many of these would actually cop they have symtoms? how many have it , had it and never knew? if cases are not reported, cases disapeer?

irishguy1983

giveitholly wrote: »

On what grounds can they justify not pushing ahead with further reopening on July 5th?

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1408083334488641540?s=19

They will come up with something

Meanwhile 140,000 people attending Grand Prix in UK in 4 weeks…I know it is not exactly comparing like for like but still…

seamus

giveitholly wrote: »

On what grounds can they justify not pushing ahead with further reopening on July 5th?

There's none, so it's more than likely that 5th July is going to go ahead.

There hasn't even been any growth in delta cases, so all indicators seem clear at this stage.

CalamariFritti

seamus wrote: »

There's none, so it's more than likely that 5th July is going to go ahead.

There hasn't even been any growth in delta cases, so all indicators seem clear at this stage.

What is this obsessions with Delta and other variants anyway?

I thought the metric was severe cases and hospitalisations? To a degree where they overwhelm the health service. Triage blablabla.

This is either happening or its not. If we never stop fretting what may or may not happen when will we ever end this?

There could be a whole new virus altogether emerging tomorrow. Or aliens or something. No?

And yes I'm being a little facetious but seriously...

Ficheall

Polar101 wrote: »

And today they had 82 cases. 1 death in the last 2 weeks.

Sounds like the vaccines work quite well.

And about 500 cases in the last seven days vs. 150 in the previous seven, if I'm reading worldometers right on the phone. That's a fair leap, but hopefully just a blip.

Turtwig

seamus wrote: »

So if we assume Krusty's figure of ~2300 new cases last week, 20% sequenced gives us 460 cases sequenced. 22 new Deltas detected. Or 30 depending on who reported.

But it doesn't matter because it still means that somewhere between 5% and 6.5% of sequenced cases are Delta. And if sequencing is being targetted, then our Delta numbers are likely much lower than they say.

OR it could mean that we only sequenced a tiny number of cases.

I wouldn't immediately accuse anyone of lying, but something doesn't add up. Someone has misread a slide, or overly simplified the data.

You can't use last week's cases as a total for confirmed deltas.

Hopefully Martina or another poster can clarify this better than me.

This is my bastardised understanding:

Every suspect case is sent to a lab in Kildare to see if they have a particular gene or not. If the gene is present then they are not the alpha variant.
To confirm what variant exactly requires the entire virus to be examined and that takes up to three weeks. This means the confirmed delta numbers are three weeks old.
What public health officials look for is the deviation in the rate of variants that are not alpha. For weeks this ratio was relatively consistent. Last week that changed significantly. It showed a heavier infiltration by some other variant(s) compared to previous weeks. Hence the remark up to 20% cases may be delta. There will some other variants in there as well. However, we'd be super optimistic, probably naive, to think the majority are not delta.
Whatever the proportion turns out to be it's clear there has been a significant change in the make up of the virus here.

How much of a change? 3 weeks from now we'll know what that was. Except, well, 3 weeks from now the situation will also be very different.