Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Normal One

On VM1 news now, this outbreak in Athlone that we were supposedly gravely concerned about had 18 positive cases, 6 of which might be delta variant. No news of anything approaching hospitalisation levels of illness as a result. No outbreaks in care homes or hospitals in the last week anywhere in the country.

amandstu

Normal One wrote: »

On VM1 news now, this outbreak in Athlone that we were supposedly gravely concerned about had 18 positive cases, 6 of which might be delta variant. No news of anything approaching hospitalisation levels of illness as a result. No outbreaks in care homes or hospitals in the last week anywhere in the country.

How long ,in general between infection and resultant hospitalization?

ElTel

Turtwig wrote: »

Is there not a two to three week lag between a suspect delta case and confirmation?
Or has this been eliminated.

Yeah the lag is there.

Delta can be inferred from some PCR tests by the absence of an amplification curve for a certain marker for the s gene I think. That was the case for the Kent variant anyway wrt no amplification of a particular bit of expected Covid RNA on some PCR platforms.

I have explained this poorly no doubt but this paper gives an idea of the adjustments and/or additions that can be made to PCR procedures to detect variants.

https://www.jmdjournal.org/article/S1525-1578(21)00089-1/fulltext

Is a new swab needed for sequencing? Can the swab used in the PCR test be sequenced? No would add greatly to the lag.
I think I remember a doctor (Female. glasses with long dark hair and a hint of a foreign accent) saying that a new swab is needed at one of the briefings weeks ago.

Klonker

Arghus wrote: »

AFAIK there's still a wait of about a fortnight. Someone else might have more up to date information, but that was the case up until very, very recently and I haven't heard anything to the contrary.

Would be helpful if someone from NPHET came out to explain this, they really should considering the hysteria since Tony's tweet. I don't just mean the newer quicker way of identifying what's Alpha variant or not but also how they use the sequincing to estimate total % of variants that make up total cases. As its not just a simple '10% of sequinced = 10% of cases' as sequincing is targeted for the newer variants.

Arghus

Klonker wrote: »

Would be helpful if someone from NPHET came out to explain this, they really should considering the hysteria since Tony's tweet. I don't just mean the newer quicker way of identifying what's Alpha variant or not but also how they use the sequincing to estimate total % of variants that make up total cases. As its not just a simple '10% of sequinced = 10% of cases' as sequincing is targeted for the newer variants.

In fairness whenever they have Cillian DeGascun appear at briefings or in the media - which is frequently enough - he's usually very forthcoming and exspansive enough about the facts and figures of sequencing etc.

AFAIK there's been no press briefing since the "20%" tweet.

I do find a certain irony in people now complaining that members of NPHET should be saying more - after spending months complaining that we hear from them at all.

martingriff

Things are going well in. Yes we should be as careful as you normally are but given there has been no real rise in cases since we opened up I don't think we are heading the way of Britian. Of course they will show caution (overly so in most cases) but they don't want to do a Boris Johnston and go you know how I said we said we have full by this well ya sorry

Gael23

304 cases

Klonker

Arghus wrote: »

In fairness whenever they have Cillian DeGascun appear at briefings or in the media - which is frequently enough - he's usually very forthcoming and exspansive enough about the facts and figures of sequencing etc.

He's actually very good in fairness. He was on Claire Byrne radio show a few months ago and it was the most informative interview I've heard on covid here yet.

Anyway hopefully they'll clear things up a bit but I'm very skeptical of the 20% figure.

Skygord

Maxface wrote: »

We have our vulnerable vaccinated

I'd be careful using that phrase. Many over 60's, and those in cohorts 4 & 7 (by definition our most vulnerable), received AZ as their 1st dose, and are still awaiting their 2nd dose. The HSE plan says these 2nd doses of AZ will be accelerated over the next 4 weeks, so we're not far off, but we can't quite yet say...

We have our vulnerable vaccinated

Turtwig

Arghus wrote: »

I do find a certain irony in people now complaining that members of NPHET should be saying more - after spending months complaining that we hear from them at all.

To be fair. People are seeking clarification over what the lead member of NPHET, the CMO, said. If he hadn't said anything people wouldn't be seeking clarification.

Cork2021

This is excellent zero outbreaks in our health system.. vaccines hey…

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408083677251309572?s=21

hmmm

giveitholly wrote: »

On what grounds can they justify not pushing ahead with further reopening on July 5th?

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1408083334488641540?s=19

Because they need to know:
1. Whether there will be a spike in cases caused by reopening indoor locations
2. What % of people will end up in hospital if Delta becomes dominant (as seems likely)
3. What size the spike will be, and how many will end up in hospital

They don't have the data yet, but caution is the correct approach for now - we might reopen on time, we might need a short delay to get more vaccinated. No-one wants to tell businesses to close down for a third time shortly after re-opening, this needs to be the once-and-done reopening.

Sweet.Science

hmmm wrote: »

Because they need to know:
1. Whether there will be a spike in cases caused by reopening indoor locations
2. What % of people will end up in hospital if Delta becomes dominant (as seems likely)
3. What size the spike will be, and how many will end up in hospital

They don't have the data yet, but caution is the correct approach for now - we might reopen on time, we might need a short delay to get more vaccinated. No-one wants to tell businesses to close down for a third time shortly after re-opening, this needs to be the once-and-done reopening.

And how are we to know these things without ... Actually opening up

They need to know if there will be a spike with indoor dining

So let's ban indoor dining

Turtwig

Sweet.Science wrote: »

And how are we to know these things without ... Actually opening up

Our neighbours.

Sweet.Science

Turtwig wrote: »

Our neighbours.

And here is another contradiction . When it came to vaccine effectiveness we need our own data and couldn't go off Israel or the UK

When it comes to live events we cant use the UK the rest of Europe or the US . We had to carry out our own embarrassing pilot events

But when it comes to looking for a reason to keep ongoing restrictions we are happy to remain closed and use the data from other countries

Silentcorner

Sweet.Science wrote: »

And here is another contradiction . When it came to vaccine effectiveness we need our own data and couldn't go off Israel or the UK

When it comes to live events we cant use the UK the rest of Europe or the US . We had to carry out our own embarrassing pilot events

But when it comes to looking for a reason to keep ongoing restrictions we are happy to remain closed and use the data from other countries

And we can't look at parts of the US that have abandoned restrictions, some for months now...but look at Moscow!!!! Or whatever the most recent hot spot around the world is!

Klonker

Turtwig wrote: »

Our neighbours.

What about rest of Europe? Are they all clamouring to close indoor dining as we are all expected to have 90% Delta cases in the coming months? I highly doubt it.

There was no talk of delaying out reopening until the CMOs unsubstantiated tweet. We knew what Delata In fact we are ahead of NPHETs best case scenario projecting at this stage and its 50/50 if we'll reopen indoor dining or not. We'd want to see a serious up tick in hospitalisations to justify not reopening which I can't see happening.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

Because they need to know:
1. Whether there will be a spike in cases caused by reopening indoor locations
2. What % of people will end up in hospital if Delta becomes dominant (as seems likely)
3. What size the spike will be, and how many will end up in hospital

They don't have the data yet, but caution is the correct approach for now - we might reopen on time, we might need a short delay to get more vaccinated. No-one wants to tell businesses to close down for a third time shortly after re-opening, this needs to be the once-and-done reopening.

Yes, lock down longer to avoid a lockdown

Not that there are other countries that we could look at or anything

Turtwig

Sweet.Science wrote: »

And here is another contradiction . When it came to vaccine effectiveness we need our own data and couldn't go off Israel or the UK

This is not true. We heavily relied on the UK data to make adjustments to the vaccine recommendations. Israel was also used to a lesser extent. If the data is available why wouldn't you use it?

Turtwig

Klonker wrote: »

What about rest of Europe?

Sure we can use them but it terms of the time evolution of the spread of delta the UK are ahead. They're the best proxy for us for what to expect.

Yes, Delta is expected dominate Europe.

Sweet.Science

Turtwig wrote: »

This is not true. We heavily relied on the UK data to make adjustments to the vaccine recommendations. Israel was also used to a lesser extent. If the data is available why wouldn't you use it?

We can debate that but it's good to know you agree the rest of the shambles

Ficheall

What's the story with vaccine passes - did we decide to implement those at some point? Not for travel, but for events /indoor dining etc.?

Klonker

Ficheall wrote: »

What's the story with vaccine passes - did we decide to implement those at some point? Not for travel, but for events /indoor dining etc.?

We'd need to allow antigen testing to do that. Is anywhere doing this and not accepting antigen tests?

Turtwig

Sweet.Science wrote: »

We can debate that but it's good to know you agree the rest of the shambles

Have no interest in debates. Have no idea what you think I agree to. This is a very nuanced issue and considering my reply didn't openly agree with any of your post. I can't really see how you are inferring I was agreeing to something.

As it stands I'm just very confused as to what exactly you mean.

Sweet.Science

Turtwig wrote: »

Have no interest in debates. Have no idea what you think I agree to. This is a very nuanced issue and considering my reply didn't openly agree with any of your post. I can't really see how you are inferring I was agreeing to something.

As it stands I'm just very confused as to what exactly you mean.

Accepted

giveitholly

hmmm wrote: »

Because they need to know:
1. Whether there will be a spike in cases caused by reopening indoor locations
2. What % of people will end up in hospital if Delta becomes dominant (as seems likely)
3. What size the spike will be, and how many will end up in hospital

They don't have the data yet, but caution is the correct approach for now - we might reopen on time, we might need a short delay to get more vaccinated. No-one wants to tell businesses to close down for a third time shortly after re-opening, this needs to be the once-and-done reopening.

1. How are they going to figure this out?
2.How long will this take?I presume they don't know how long it will take for the Delta variant to become dominant so how long will it take them to know how it will affect hospitalizations
3.Same as above.
You do realise that one week's trading the hospitality industry is worth about a month's worth in the winter.So a short delay could be disastrous for some businesses

Indestructable

I don't get it. If the Delta strain is such a massive worry, why have India's cases reduce so dramatically lately.

They should be in the midst of a massive and uncontrollable wave, yet they seem to have a handle on the situation now.

It's not vaccination, numbers are too low.
It's not distancing, not possible in India.
Herd immunity, unlikely given the population.

How have their numbers recovered at all?

Silentcorner

Indestructable wrote: »

I don't get it. If the Delta strain is such a massive worry, why have India's cases reduce so dramatically lately.

They should be in the midst of a massive and uncontrollable wave, yet they seem to have a handle on the situation now.

It's not vaccination, numbers are too low.
It's not distancing, not possible in India.
Herd immunity, unlikely given the population.

How have their numbers recovered at all?

If the virus is uncontrollable and lock downs and vaccines are the only way of stopping it....then the people working in the coffee shops, petrol stations and supermarkets would have seen massive spikes in case numbers during a viral surge...but that didn't happen either.

Rayne Wooney

giveitholly wrote: »

On what grounds can they justify not pushing ahead with further reopening on July 5th?

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1408083334488641540?s=19

Cases will start to increase again because people are going elsewhere to do things they can’t here, and spending the money that’s been hoarded over the last 1.5 years, it’s a f**king catastrophe what’s happening.


There will be no accountability when this is all over, the main players in government will lay low for a couple of years. NPHET have known all along where we would be on 5th of July, it doesn’t take an astrophysicist to work out how many vaccinations we will have given, it’s exactly the amount the UK had when they opened indoor on the 17th of May, NPHET now saying we need more time to vaccinate which tells you the roadmap was just a complete ruse to get us to comply.

It’s taken almost a month for the hospital number to go from 900 to 1,550 in the UK. The worst case scenario for us right now doesn’t plunge the country into a crisis by any means, every adult will be vaccinated by mid September if they choose so, it seems genuinely impossible for things to escalate to December/January levels in 12 weeks, it’s almost 5 weeks now since UK started trending upwards and there is no state of emergency.

NPHET need to share their forecasts with us, I get the feeling that Tony Holohan’s gut feeling is a genuine variable that they take into account, the man lambasted a crowd of young people enjoying their outdoor summer and it has had absolutely zero effect on cases.

bucketybuck

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

There will be no accountability when this is all over, the main players in government will lay low for a couple of years.

They won't lay low, they will just gaslight the **** out of all of us. They will give each other medals, the freedom of Ireland, fat pensions, book deals and tell us all that the past 14 months of inadequacy didn't actually happen the way we remember it. You can see it already, their shills telling us that we weren't actually locked down, that we weren't actually restricted, that the sky is not actually blue.

You know its true, these ***** will all look after each other, it will be medals and pats on the back and most definitely not a badly needed public inquiry.