Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Cork2021

Ficheall wrote: »

Did you not say you'd arranged to get your vax ~6 weeks earlier than the rest of your cohort despite having no underlying conditions?
I'm sure I'll be more relaxed when I get my vax and my parents have their second vax.

I didn’t ask for the vaccine our GP is going through the age groups after finishing his cohort 4/7 and over 70’s
I was offered due to technically working on the frontline in retail. Also my parents and in laws are fully vaccinated plus a few siblings.
Again offered due to GP going through the ages.
I’m not happy with the way peoples livelihoods are being messed around with due to a abundance of caution. We’ve 36 in hospitals average cases 300 a day 50,000 vaccines a day being given.
This has to stop we need to move on!

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

What have your own calculations revealed, Owen?

To be fair, he's not in charge of modelling for the entire country, is he? And Owen's models don't decide if an entire industry is going to be put on the scrap heap, now, does it?

petes

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Do that

Better than getting annoyed online because people are getting annoyed online

Couldn’t make it up

Read my posts again, I'm not in the one bit annoyed. But, yeah rather than answer the question I posed, keep ignoring it and claim hypocrisy, it's actually quite funny how posters here deflect a direct question.

Peter Flynt

prunudo wrote: »

Lets see how that mood is in 2 weeks time when people realise their staycation is a waste of money as everywhere is still closed.

Staycations are a waste of money anyway.
Country is a rip off.

yourdeadwright

So only 36 people in hospital & there going to hold up opening the country ?

Id love to know the average age of the hospitalised or how many have under lying conditions ,

Looking like we won't open and then Autumn & winter will roll around and they'll get scared and try kept things closed ,

Peter Flynt

At the heart of the apparent decision not to reopen indoors on July 5th appears to be what went on in December which led to Ireland being the worst place on Earth for covid for a period in January ans schools closed for January & February.

In December the politicians reopened for the "meaningful Christmas" and it was probably against NPHET's advice.

This time NPHET are running the show as the politicians are not prepared to deal with the flak for a second time if things go wrong.

Stated yesterday that if indoor dining does not happen on July 5th then it won't happen at all in 2021 as I do not see what will happen in 14 days after July 5th to improve things when the rest of Europe is open.

There is also one major difference this time - vaccination.
For all the boasts from politicians of our vaccination scheme we might as well not be taking them at all.

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

To be fair, he's not in charge of modelling for the entire country, is he? And Owen's models don't decide if an entire industry is going to be put on the scrap heap, now, does it?

To be fair, he doesn't. But it would be nice to know if he had anything to back up his assertions when dissing the team of professionals who are doing the actual calculations.


Otherwise you get two posters saying
"Those guys are wrong - I think the R rate is 0.4, NPHET are idiots" and those in favour of opening up will thank it, and another poster saying
"I think the R rate is 1.3, NPHET are definitely doing the right thing", and that is equally pointless.


I don't know what Owen's qualifications/background are - he could well have some data or insight into the calculations that the rest of us don't and that would be good to hear. Disagreeing with numbers simply on the grounds that they inconvenience you is less noteworthy.

AdamD

Ficheall wrote: »

What have your own calculations revealed, Owen?

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1377275983535951875?s=21


Dunno but not sure they'd be as far off as these

podgeandrodge

What's the logic with Belgium (and I think Canada) refusing people from countries like UK even if fully vaccinated due to Delta? But opening to EU countries for vaccinated people due to passport? Surely fully vaccinated should mean the same treatment, regardless of the levels of Delta around - or is vaccination no longer sufficient if there are high levels of Delta?

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

To be fair, he doesn't. But it would be nice to know if he had anything to back up his assertions when dissing the team of professionals who are doing the actual calculations.

.

What have we got to go on though? Nolan and NPHET are extremely secretive of their methods and have had bizarre regions such as 0.5-1.2 which could mean the pandemic is halving or it could be growing exponentially. When these calculations are being used to shut down entire economies and sectors, we could do with some better maths then 'maybe things are awful, maybe things are good'.

You can criticise what looks like back of the fag packet maths when it is so vague and open to interpretation without having to be a mathematician yourself.

Normal One

yourdeadwright wrote: »

So only 36 people in hospital & there going to hold up opening the country ?

Id love to know the average age of the hospitalised or how many have under lying conditions ,

Looking like we won't open and then Autumn & winter will roll around and they'll get scared and try kept things closed ,

Worth remembering that there may be asymptotic cases and in hospital for completely unrelated matters too - and still included in the numbers

TefalBrain

Deleted User wrote: »

The fact this line below is being bandied about tells you there's a good chance this will happen.

"However, there are also concerns at senior levels of Government a delay may lead to further extensions, with the next window for more reopening not arising until as late as autumn".

How can they play with people's livelihoods like this? It's abhorrent, it's coercive control, simple as. Why does not opening on the 5th July mean a delay til August/September? That's not the 2 week delay the NPHET shills (let's be honest and call them what they are at this stage - the faux concern isn't fooling anyone) keep advocating in the wait and see approach. We'll be waiting and seeing until Christmas.

They are a playing compliant populace for fools.

Normal One

TefalBrain wrote: »

They are a playing compliant populace for fools.

The Public Order Unit are taking care of the non compliant

FintanMcluskey

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Stated yesterday that if indoor dining does not happen on July 5th then it won't happen at all in 2021 as I do not see what will happen in 14 days after July 5th to improve things when the rest of Europe is open..

100%

I seen yesterday people were saying it’s just 2 weeks

Is it bo#ix, if it doesn’t happen on July 5th it won’t happen this year

TefalBrain

We have less freedoms in our lives than we had this time last year, with millions of vaccinations in arms now. Lol. What a kip of a country.

They need to stick "careful now" on the tricolour at this stage.

TheDoctor

AdamD wrote: »

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1377275983535951875?s=21


Dunno but not sure they'd be as far off as these

I dont know anyone whos contacts have gone down since 31st March.

Really showing how rubbish those models are.

Scuid Mhór

It seemed obvious to me that the plan for reopening was always meant to coincide with having the adult population as vaccinated as possible. As we didn’t hit our 80% target for end of June - then compound that with the imminence of the delta variant - it seems self-evident that the reopening would have to be delayed.

What is interesting to me is the flip in people’s attitudes — a lot of people I know now who are full vaccinated want society to reopen for them, and seem not to care for the remaining unvaccinated members of our populace who may mostly be under the age of forty, but just because it won’t kill them doesn’t mean they can’t experience complications from COVID (for further reading: long COVID). The constant trivialising of an serious disease because of its mortality rate among age cohorts is tiresome and a lazy argument.

Ficheall

Deleted User wrote: »

bizarre regions such as 0.5-1.2

R numbers from wiki:

Measles 12-18
Chickenpox 10-12
Mumps 10-12
Rubella 6-7
Polio 5-7
Pertussis, I've never heard of (oh, seems it's whooping cough) but they've somehow managed to nail it down to 5.5.
Smallpox 3.5-6
I see they have Covid listed here as 2.7 (2.39-3.44) - perhaps needs updating at some point.
Hiv 2-5
SARS 2-4
etc.


R numbers are tricky to calculate - especially in a relatively new and evolving situation.


Would be interesting to see their calculations, sure, but posters on here were arguing until they were blue in the face about what "mean" "median" "outlier" "exponential" etc. meant - I'm not confident that NPHET's calculations would lead to much enlightenment for us mere mortals. Owen aside, obviously.

Sweet.Science

Gael23 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0625/1231268-covid-hospitals/

Im going to estimate hospital numbers will be 24 on July 5th.
ICU numbers 8

Be some speech from MM

Tired332

petes wrote: »

Read my posts again, I'm not in the one bit annoyed. But, yeah rather than answer the question I posed, keep ignoring it and claim hypocrisy, it's actually quite funny how posters here deflect a direct question.

Watching Rte and our political party all their lives, bound to pick up a few tricks on deflection

MerlinSouthDub

I'm struggling with seeing a scenario where reopening on 5th July would lead to a bad outcome.

By end of july, we will have
70ish% fully vaccinated
80ish% with one dose

Pretty much everyone 30+ will have one dose by then (everyone who wants one anyway). One dose of Pfizer gives 90%+ protection against hospitalisation from the virus (even with delta).

Even if we see case number increase by 50% a week from their current levels (300 a day) from 5th July to end of July, we'd be at 1200 cases or so at end of July. That would be pretty rapid acceleration, and it's hard to see it being any worse than that. Hospitalisation rates are about 2% at the moment, and this will fall further as we push the virus down to lower age groups. We would be miles off overloading the health service.

funnydoggy

At least MM hasn't said "it's like a new virus" this time lol

JDD

Surely schools being closed should lead to a reduction in positive cases?

I think we're going to end up with the same average number of cases a day in two weeks and we'll be kicking ourselves that we didn't stick to the July 5th plan.

I'm sure Boris is also kicking himself. Daily cases have doubled in the UK over the past two weeks, and yet hospitalisations have only gone up by around 15%. If we take a similar period from last year - last week of September to first week of October - cases also doubled during a two week period and average numbers admitted to hospitals also doubled during those two weeks. Vaccinations are working.

If Johnson had held out, the vaccinations would have caught up with the Delta variant and even with a higher surge in cases resulting from a full reopen, hospitalisations would never have increased to an unworkable peak. But Boris is worried about how he will be written about since the Cummings revelations, and his legacy, and he is more cautious now that he might have been a year ago.

yourdeadwright

The government need to show some balls here and let people actuality start living again,

We are almost 18 months deep with nearly a million jabs done its time to cope on and open up ,

If hospital cases are not rising quickly than i really can't see the issue,

God knows how this will effect the youngest missing out on vital years of building up social skills and learning about the world around them ,

Turtwig

AdamD wrote: »

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1377275983535951875?s=21


Dunno but not sure they'd be as far off as these

Fergal, as is his wont, picked one of their case scenario projections for a moderate increase in r. It wasn't a prediction of the future. It wasn't even a prediction NPHET were going with. In fact, if I remember correctly that was in a no vaccine population too.

The modelling consortiums modelling has been OK imo.

No where near the exaggerated levels of awful some people like to make out.

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Im going to estimate hospital numbers will be 24 on July 5th.
ICU numbers 8

Be some speech from MM

I don't think hospital numbers even matter at this point.
It could be 9 in hospital and 2 in ICU and the concern would still be there.

Leo said before that we have funds to last into 2023. A terrifying thought.

Sweet.Science

So now there are officially more members in NPHET than there are with Covid 19 in our hospitals .

TheDoctor

Sweet.Science wrote: »

So now there are officially more members in NPHET than there are with Covid 19 in our hospitals .

36 hospital v 38 NPHET I think?

It’s a great stat

GeorgeBailey

Turtwig wrote: »

Fergal, as is his wont, picked one of their case scenario projections for a moderate increase in r. It wasn't a prediction of the future. It wasn't even a prediction NPHET were going with. In fact, if I remember correctly that was in a no vaccine population too.

Someone asked Fergal in the comments whether that included there being vaccines and he confirmed it did factor it in.

marno21

There is one thing that concerns me greatly atm

There is going to be an increase in “cases” when we reopen. This is without question. A case in 2021 is very very different to a case in 2020. If we have 400 cases per day, 80% asymptomatic, 19% mildly symptomatic and <<1% severe, what do we do? We could manage hundreds of “cases” indefinitely at that rate as the risk profile becomes similar to flu.

The risk profile of Covid-19 at the minute, if it were like this back last March, would not have led to the measures we saw. An airborne respiratory virus with an R0 ~ 7 is scary but a majority of the population vaccinated with a 95% efficacious vaccine changes the landscape completely.

If we delay reopening til the winter it improves transmission environment and it’ll make the surge worse. Now is our chance to open with a good balance of risk.