Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Swaine

There are now 5 more members of NPHET than people in hospital with COVID19 in Ireland.

UK talking about allowing 140k at Silverstone Grand Prix and 60k at Wembley soon.

Ireland talking about cancelling reopening because of “situation in the UK”.

This is really bonkers.

Swaine

TheDoctor wrote: »

36 hospital v 38 NPHET I think?

It’s a great stat

41 members of NPHET at the moment.

TheDoctor

Swaine wrote: »

41 members of NPHET at the moment.

We are seeing a steady increase in the admissions to NPHET over the past few weeks.

We need these numbers to drop before we could consider the easing of restrictions.

When was the most recently reported Covid death?

If feels like ages. Deaths were still reasonably frequent last month, but have noticeably disappeared from recent reports.

Cork2021

Interesting that MM took this direct quote from the Portuguese PM

Quoting the Portuguese Prime Minister, Mr Martin said the experience of the Delta variant there was not accompanied by a rise in hospitalisation and critical care.

TheDoctor

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

When was the most recently reported Covid death?

If feels like ages. Deaths were still reasonably frequent last month, but have noticeably disappeared from recent reports.

There was one day they reported a back dated block of deaths, say was about a week ago.

yourdeadwright

TheDoctor wrote: »

We are seeing a steady increase in the admissions to NPHET over the past few weeks.

We need these numbers to drop before we could consider the easing of restrictions.

Should be renamed NOTFIT .........I'LL GET MY HAT

snotboogie

munchkin_utd wrote: »

Everywhere is open as far as I know, but even if it wasnt, it isnt an issue on the continent as people generally sit outside in the summer.
If you ask an owner of some dark irish pub in a dungeon basement somewhere in Europe you'll be told that they do almost no business during the summer as nobody wants to be indoors. The only pubs and restaurants that keep ticking over in the summer are the ones that have a nice big terrace that people can sit out in the fresh air and sunshine, and thats before Covid.

On the continent opening indoors in the summer isnt going to create a massive infection problem as nobody wants to be indoors in the summer.
In Ireland, its a very different story so a very different decision that NPHET has to make and way more laden with risk than for the continent.

just this one time NPHET might actually have a point in being anxious in opening indoors .

Ourworldindata has a restrictions measurement which puts us as the 3rd most restricted in the EU, behind Italy and Portugal. I don't know the situation in Italy and Portugal but they also put Canada as more restricted than us which is insane. On balance it does seem that we have the most restrictions of anywhere in Europe and North America.

If there is a delay in reopening, I think we need a bit more reasoning than vague "dark clouds" I can somewhat understand the logic of finishing the AZ dosage for the over 60's while continuing to monitor data from the UK on the Delta variant. That's a 2 to 3 week turnaround at most and would be far more restrictive than anywhere else in Europe. The public at least deserves clear communication on why we are deviating from the rest of the EU and what measures need to be met to continue our reopening.

I watched prime time last night and it was subtly very misleading on the restrictions in the UK, the talk was about them delaying reopening and how we may follow suit. It was never mentioned that the UK is already as open as we plan to be on July 5th and it was a further reopening that they were delaying. The impression was that we were doing the same thing.

Wolf359f

TheDoctor wrote: »

I dont know anyone whos contacts have gone down since 31st March.

Really showing how rubbish those models are.

Close contacts have gone from 3.5 to 3.7 since March to June. So there was no moderate increase, hence daily figures they quoted didn't come to pass.

TheDoctor

Wolf359f wrote: »

Close contacts have gone from 3.5 to 3.7 since March to June. So there was no moderate increase, hence daily figures they quoted didn't come to pass.

I find those figures quite hard to believe comparing the city centre here now to what it was in March.

Wolf359f

TheDoctor wrote: »

I find those figures quite hard to believe comparing the city centre here now to what it was in March.

Feel free to check it out for yourself
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-updates.html

TheDoctor

Wolf359f wrote: »

Feel free to check it out for yourself
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-updates.html

Methinks people aren't being completely honest when been questioned on their movements.

Also gathering in shops and outside pubs for take away pints, you wouldnt have a clue who you've run into. Those werent options in March.

Wolf359f

snotboogie wrote: »

Ourworldindata has a restrictions measurement which puts us as the 3rd most restricted in the EU, behind Italy and Portugal. I don't know the situation in Italy and Portugal but they also put Canada as more restricted than us which is insane. On balance it does seem that we have the most restrictions of anywhere in Europe and North.

That ourworldindata comparison is absolute crap. Part of the calculation is based on financial aid, vaccine purchasing and totally non related items when you're talking about lockdown severity.

On Canada, parts of it had indoor dining closed the past 8 months. Montreal I believe have indoor dining closed a total of 360 days since the pandemic hit.

Wolf359f

TheDoctor wrote: »

Methinks people aren't being completely honest when been questioned on their movements.

Also gathering in shops and outside pubs for take away pints, you wouldnt have a clue who you've run into. Those werent options in March.

Close contacts in those settings (strangers) were never considered close contacts for obvious reasons... Because you wouldn't know them.
People were never 100% honest when questioned, I doubt much has changed on that.

It's one data point, changes in community transmission or positivity in close contacts would help them remove some noise.
But the lower the close contacts, the less spread there can be.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Close contacts in those settings (strangers) were never considered close contacts for obvious reasons... Because you wouldn't know them.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but what was the point of the tracker app, then anyway?

I got a contact notification from it once, and back then they were still rationing tests, I couldn't even get tested. They said I was probably only a brief contact.

Are people still using that tracker app at all?

Necro

Folks if you are posting links or information please add your own opinion or commentary to it, otherwise you're just link dumping which is not what a discussion forum is meant for. Thanks

TefalBrain

Swaine wrote: »

There are now 5 more members of NPHET than people in hospital with COVID19 in Ireland.

UK talking about allowing 140k at Silverstone Grand Prix and 60k at Wembley soon.

Ireland talking about cancelling reopening because of “situation in the UK”.

This is really bonkers.

They've lost the run of themselves they really have. Personally i think Covid has done a huge amount of damage to peoples mental health more than we can imagine. Look at some of the comments on here regarding delaying reopening with miniscule amounts of people in hospital with the virus, like you'd fit more people in a mini bus. It's crazy stuff

yourdeadwright

Can someone explain why the next reopening window would be Autumn if the 5th of July doesn't go ahead ?
Hurley reopening windows are just a made up human constraint so surely you can just make one up whenever you feel like its needed ?

What am i missing here ?

Doctor Jimbob

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Can someone explain why the next reopening window would be Autumn if the 5th of July doesn't go ahead ?
Hurley reopening windows are just a made up human constraint so surely you can just make one up whenever you feel like its needed ?

What am i missing here ?

Despite the claims of following a data-driven approach to reopening, our government seems intent on basing decisions around stuff like bank holidays, when schools are open, the phase of the moon, and their horoscopes.

seamus

AdamD wrote: »

Right I'll join the 'conspiracy theorists'. Its shaping up the same as last summer, they'll delay indoor dining (see pubs last summer), then there will be another reason - August bank holiday / schools returning, for it to be delayed again. Suddenly we're in Autumn and they haven't opened, there's worry of a 'winter wave'....

I appreciate that some people find themselves so hopelessly exhausted by this, that it feels like it will never end.

But this year and last year are two entirely different scenarios. Last year we had no vaccines, and we were still hopelessly naive about infection control. We thought that we could do "nearly normal" with a bit of handwashing and distancing, and it turned out to be a mess.

In May/June there was still an aspect of "maybe we're done, maybe this thing won't come back", so a lot of guards were let down.

This year we have vaccines and a much better understanding as a society, of how to protect ourselves. We know this thing will come back amongst the unvaccinated, if we let our guard down.

There is no real justification for delaying indoor dining to protect schools. One way or another by the time we get to schools reopening, the majority of adults will be fully vaccinated. Right now we have a much more liberal opening of society than we did before indoor dining reopened last year, and cases are still dropping. This is the proof that we have a better grip on what needs to be done.

I'm not saying they won't push it back. I don't have a crystal ball. Micháel has at least once blamed variants for increases when relaxed restrictions were the issue, and has at least twice put out the "whole new virus" line, which is excessively alarmist. So we know he is very easily swayed toward risk aversion.

But based on the brief we heard yesterday, based on the situation in other regions, the pace of our vaccine rollout and the public appetite, I'm not expecting the 5th July date to be moved back. None of the comments being made by politicians seem to be suggesting it either - in the UK it was obvious two weeks out that their "freedom day", was off the table. Our politicians haven't been doing the same sandbagging, and if they wanted to push it back they wouldn't be leaving it to the last minute.

If asked for hypotheticals, then it could be pushed back by a week or two based on Martin's comment in Brussels today - the justification will be that they want to open the vaccination programme to all adults by mid-July, and need a little extra time to put this in place.

People overall are happy I think with outdoor eating and drinking. I've yet to hear anyone around me complaining that they'd prefer to be indoors. A pub near me has managed to make more space outside than they have ever had inside and have said they're doing the best business they have in years.

So I think any resistance to not reopening could be less than expected. The majority of premises seem to have adapted to some degree and the majority of people glad to sit outside in the summer.

JRant

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Can someone explain why the next reopening window would be Autumn if the 5th of July doesn't go ahead ?
Hurley reopening windows are just a made up human constraint so surely you can just make one up whenever you feel like its needed ?

What am i missing here ?

It appears they don't want to reopen indoor activities until we reach their own arbitrarily defined number of 80% first doses. Instead of just being clear on this and treating the population like adults they've come out with "concerns" and "dark clouds". The government are being cautious, NIAC are applying an "abundance of caution" and NPHET are by default Uber cautious. This has led to a slowdown in returning civil liberties and in the vaccine rollout.

We are now left with a situation, whereby, our government have completely and utterly abdicated all responsibility to health officials within the country on policy and the EU for vaccines. Continually spouting the "we know nothing" mantra.

Necro

Maybe I'm too much of an optimist but I reckon things will steam on ahead as planned.

I will say I'm rather disappointed in RTE over their headline about cases at the Denmark Euros game - 3 cases in 25,000 should be put in the headline not buried in the text. Fairly poor reporting tbh.

Avon8

PowerToWait wrote: »

Could the fear and doom merchants not stick to the restrictions thread?

It’s hard work wading through dozens of pages of incessant negativity, from the same half dozen, on a thread which should be a source of hope now that everything is opening up due to the fantastic vaccination program.

You're upset that people may have a differing opinion to your idea that the situation for citizens is currently a positive one? Should we all automatically agree with your crap viewpoints?

Without even an ounce on irony also that the people currently celebrating the situation and exercising caution were the ones with incessant negativity throughout the first 12 months, calling at every opportunity for people's livelihoods and freedoms to be curbed for the greater good

rob316

Necro wrote: »

Maybe I'm too much of an optimist but I reckon things will steam on ahead as planned.

I will say I'm rather disappointed in RTE over their headline about cases at the Denmark Euros game - 3 cases in 25,000 should be put in the headline not buried in the text. Fairly poor reporting tbh.

18 months into this, your still surprised at how RTE report something :rolleyes:

Economics101

snotboogie wrote: »

Ourworldindata has a restrictions measurement which puts us as the 3rd most restricted in the EU, behind Italy and Portugal. I don't know the situation in Italy and Portugal but they also put Canada as more restricted than us which is insane. On balance it does seem that we have the most restrictions of anywhere in Europe and North America.

Portugal has a Delta Variant surge in the Lisbon area. Life goes on pretty normally with hospitality, subject to social distancing, masking and, AFAIK, restrictions on late opening. The only big thing they have done is to restrict movement into and out of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (i.e. greater Lisbon) at weekends, unless you have proof of vaccination or a negative PCR test. They seem to tailor their responses to specific local conditions.

TefalBrain

Necro wrote: »

Maybe I'm too much of an optimist but I reckon things will steam on ahead as planned.

I will say I'm rather disappointed in RTE over their headline about cases at the Denmark Euros game - 3 cases in 25,000 should be put in the headline not buried in the text. Fairly poor reporting tbh.

That's what a journalist would do, inject balance. RTE are in huge financial trouble and are depending on the state to keep the show on the road and their huge salaries ticking over. It's not rocket science to realise why they are dancing a jig to the governments tune.

JRant

seamus wrote: »

I appreciate that some people find themselves so hopelessly exhausted by this, that it feels like it will never end.

But this year and last year are two entirely different scenarios. Last year we had no vaccines, and we were still hopelessly naive about infection control. We thought that we could do "nearly normal" with a bit of handwashing and distancing, and it turned out to be a mess.

In May/June there was still an aspect of "maybe we're done, maybe this thing won't come back", so a lot of guards were let down.

This year we have vaccines and a much better understanding as a society, of how to protect ourselves. We know this thing will come back amongst the unvaccinated, if we let our guard down.

There is no real justification for delaying indoor dining to protect schools. One way or another by the time we get to schools reopening, the majority of adults will be fully vaccinated. Right now we have a much more liberal opening of society than we did before indoor dining reopened last year, and cases are still dropping. This is the proof that we have a better grip on what needs to be done.

I'm not saying they won't push it back. I don't have a crystal ball. Micháel has at least once blamed variants for increases when relaxed restrictions were the issue, and has at least twice put out the "whole new virus" line, which is excessively alarmist. So we know he is very easily swayed toward risk aversion.

But based on the brief we heard yesterday, based on the situation in other regions, the pace of our vaccine rollout and the public appetite, I'm not expecting the 5th July date to be moved back. None of the comments being made by politicians seem to be suggesting it either - in the UK it was obvious two weeks out that their "freedom day", was off the table. Our politicians haven't been doing the same sandbagging, and if they wanted to push it back they wouldn't be leaving it to the last minute.

If asked for hypotheticals, then it could be pushed back by a week or two based on Martin's comment in Brussels today - the justification will be that they want to open the vaccination programme to all adults by mid-July, and need a little extra time to put this in place.

People overall are happy I think with outdoor eating and drinking. I've yet to hear anyone around me complaining that they'd prefer to be indoors. A pub near me has managed to make more space outside than they have ever had inside and have said they're doing the best business they have in years.

So I think any resistance to not reopening could be less than expected. The majority of premises seem to have adapted to some degree and the majority of people glad to sit outside in the summer.

I agree with some of what you're saying here Seamus. I don't think there'll be much pushback if the next round of relaxations are delayed.

However, I feel they are delaying them for all the wrong reasons. Remember, the extraordinary measures currently in place should require extraordinary evidence to maintain them. With less than 40 people in hospital and nearly 70% of the adult population with at least a single dose I am just left scratching my head at their reluctance to open up the economy more.

Other countries have been proactive since April on this with many trial events and data gathering exercises while opening up their economies when the numbers allowed it. Here we seem to be stuck in a holding pattern of "let's not open up in case we have to take a step back at some stage". There's incredible risk adversion here that is bordering on the pathological IMO.

As a country, I honestly don't think we've made much ground at all in how to manage the situation. We had from January to June with very little of our economy open and quite severe restrictions on travel. We've seen very modest relaxations since then with little to no data being presented as to why that is still the case. Add in the awful communications coming from government and NPHET and 2021 has been a far more frustrating year than last even with the incredible news on vaccines.

hmmm

Necro wrote: »

Maybe I'm too much of an optimist but I reckon things will steam on ahead as planned.

I will say I'm rather disappointed in RTE over their headline about cases at the Denmark Euros game - 3 cases in 25,000 should be put in the headline not buried in the text. Fairly poor reporting tbh.

Agreed on the Danish game. It's not even clear where they caught it, they could all have been sharing a car for all we know.

On the other hand Delta I think is the real deal. The Australian contact tracing is showing genuine examples of spread with minimal contact. I think the Government will be cautious given the uncertainty, and even the talk of allowing J&J and AZ for younger people shows that we may make a dash to push out as many vaccines as possible as quickly as possible.

Wolf359f

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I'm not disagreeing with you, but what was the point of the tracker app, then anyway?

I got a contact notification from it once, and back then they were still rationing tests, I couldn't even get tested. They said I was probably only a brief contact.

Are people still using that tracker app at all?

I'm not sure the close contacts from the App are large enough to change the number of close contacts that are tracked on the contact tracing dashboard (16k positive cases uploaded their ID's and triggered 25K strangers to hopefully get tested, 1.56 close contacts) far less than the 2.0 - 3.7 that's been tracked on the dashboard.

Klonker

seamus wrote: »

I appreciate that some people find themselves so hopelessly exhausted by this, that it feels like it will never end.

But this year and last year are two entirely different scenarios. Last year we had no vaccines, and we were still hopelessly naive about infection control. We thought that we could do "nearly normal" with a bit of handwashing and distancing, and it turned out to be a mess.

In May/June there was still an aspect of "maybe we're done, maybe this thing won't come back", so a lot of guards were let down.

This year we have vaccines and a much better understanding as a society, of how to protect ourselves. We know this thing will come back amongst the unvaccinated, if we let our guard down.

There is no real justification for delaying indoor dining to protect schools. One way or another by the time we get to schools reopening, the majority of adults will be fully vaccinated. Right now we have a much more liberal opening of society than we did before indoor dining reopened last year, and cases are still dropping. This is the proof that we have a better grip on what needs to be done.

I'm not saying they won't push it back. I don't have a crystal ball. Micháel has at least once blamed variants for increases when relaxed restrictions were the issue, and has at least twice put out the "whole new virus" line, which is excessively alarmist. So we know he is very easily swayed toward risk aversion.

But based on the brief we heard yesterday, based on the situation in other regions, the pace of our vaccine rollout and the public appetite, I'm not expecting the 5th July date to be moved back. None of the comments being made by politicians seem to be suggesting it either - in the UK it was obvious two weeks out that their "freedom day", was off the table. Our politicians haven't been doing the same sandbagging, and if they wanted to push it back they wouldn't be leaving it to the last minute.

If asked for hypotheticals, then it could be pushed back by a week or two based on Martin's comment in Brussels today - the justification will be that they want to open the vaccination programme to all adults by mid-July, and need a little extra time to put this in place.

People overall are happy I think with outdoor eating and drinking. I've yet to hear anyone around me complaining that they'd prefer to be indoors. A pub near me has managed to make more space outside than they have ever had inside and have said they're doing the best business they have in years.

So I think any resistance to not reopening could be less than expected. The majority of premises seem to have adapted to some degree and the majority of people glad to sit outside in the summer.

There is absolutely no justification for not opening on the 5th July. It may very well go ahead but the fact its 50/50 now and having a discussion on it is crazy.

It's not true to say there's no comments to suggest we won't reopen, there has been loads. A member of NPHET, Mary Favier said as much on national radio. Every paper is saying its likely to happen and we know they are very accurate with their leaks.

Some pubs and restaurants are doing well that's true but about 50% are not opened at all. If people think outdoor is so great and people won't want to go indoors even if allowed then what's the harm in reopening them so if they'll be empty?