Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

AdamD

seamus wrote: »

I appreciate that some people find themselves so hopelessly exhausted by this, that it feels like it will never end.

But this year and last year are two entirely different scenarios. Last year we had no vaccines, and we were still hopelessly naive about infection control. We thought that we could do "nearly normal" with a bit of handwashing and distancing, and it turned out to be a mess.

In May/June there was still an aspect of "maybe we're done, maybe this thing won't come back", so a lot of guards were let down.

This year we have vaccines and a much better understanding as a society, of how to protect ourselves. We know this thing will come back amongst the unvaccinated, if we let our guard down.

There is no real justification for delaying indoor dining to protect schools. One way or another by the time we get to schools reopening, the majority of adults will be fully vaccinated. Right now we have a much more liberal opening of society than we did before indoor dining reopened last year, and cases are still dropping. This is the proof that we have a better grip on what needs to be done.

I'm not saying they won't push it back. I don't have a crystal ball. Micháel has at least once blamed variants for increases when relaxed restrictions were the issue, and has at least twice put out the "whole new virus" line, which is excessively alarmist. So we know he is very easily swayed toward risk aversion.

But based on the brief we heard yesterday, based on the situation in other regions, the pace of our vaccine rollout and the public appetite, I'm not expecting the 5th July date to be moved back. None of the comments being made by politicians seem to be suggesting it either - in the UK it was obvious two weeks out that their "freedom day", was off the table. Our politicians haven't been doing the same sandbagging, and if they wanted to push it back they wouldn't be leaving it to the last minute.

If asked for hypotheticals, then it could be pushed back by a week or two based on Martin's comment in Brussels today - the justification will be that they want to open the vaccination programme to all adults by mid-July, and need a little extra time to put this in place.

People overall are happy I think with outdoor eating and drinking. I've yet to hear anyone around me complaining that they'd prefer to be indoors. A pub near me has managed to make more space outside than they have ever had inside and have said they're doing the best business they have in years.

So I think any resistance to not reopening could be less than expected. The majority of premises seem to have adapted to some degree and the majority of people glad to sit outside in the summer.

On the bold - that hasn't been me, but if they delay now I think it will. I don't see any justification at this point. I don't want to be melodramatic about this, but the situation is verging on the ridiculous. Its caution above everything, we're a one-issue state at this point, is there any consideration of the negative effects of not reopening at this point?

Regarding July 5th, my optimism is dwindling. I could be wrong, but I'm not sure we've ever had a situation where a delay has been touted in the media only to not occur? Its front and center of the Irish Times website right now:


'Full return of pubs and restaurants on July 5th looking unlikely'.

The way our country has been run for the last year (we hear through the media first before any official announcements) leads me to believe that's going to be the case.

On people being happy about outdoor dining. That is true in my experience also, but we've had fantastic weather for the last few weeks. Yesterday was the first stinker and if we have a weekend like that attitudes will change. There also appears to be a growing discontent on social media driven by restaurant and pub owners now openly tweeting public figures about a potential delay. People will be unhappy, though I've no doubt it won't make a difference.

corkie

38 Cases
in Hospital of which 13 in ICU.
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/0814b13a2f2b4458a36105502c8e92e8


That is the lowest cases it has been in recent memory?



With the cases low, is it on average around 320+ cases per day of which only 20% (1 in 5) are delta variant. Clearly that hasn't peak here yet. So delaying opening is to delay it happening (it obviously is unavoidable going by media reports.)

Avon8

seamus wrote: »

People overall are happy I think with outdoor eating and drinking. I've yet to hear anyone around me complaining that they'd prefer to be indoors. A pub near me has managed to make more space outside than they have ever had inside and have said they're doing the best business they have in years.

So I think any resistance to not reopening could be less than expected. The majority of premises seem to have adapted to some degree and the majority of people glad to sit outside in the summer.

What's your sample size on this? I've been out near a dozen times since reopening and without fail every time it gets below about 15 degrees, people are itching to be indoors. It's at that point that such or others house gets mentioned.

Inspite of your anecdotal evidence, what we are certain of are the thousands of small business owners who it inconveniences hugely. It's been said numerous times that up to 80% of pub owners do not have the space for outdoors. Couple that with the prospect of losing the busiest 3 weeks of the year and anyone with even a passing presence on social media can see references of their utter despair at this likely news. I'm not sure how you can say the resistance to reopening may be less than expected. Step outside Boards for the day and look

And it's not just pub owners who get pushed back. This pushes back nightclubs, indoor gigs, indoor stadiums/arena, weddings. Think of the people working in these industries who are hoping for something to happen in the Autumn but see yet another delay to bring them into Winter where they suspect everything will be put on hold.

Klonker

TefalBrain wrote: »

That's what a journalist would do, inject balance. RTE are in huge financial trouble and are depending on the state to keep the show on the road and their huge salaries ticking over. It's not rocket science to realise why they are dancing a jig to the governments tune.

I don't think it's that they're dancing to governments tune, they actually put pressure on government to be more conservative. Lines like "look what happened when you ignored advice at Christmas". The issue is doom and fear sells and RTE are making more profit during covid than before. Its in their financial benifit to keep the covid show on the road as long as they can. And because its going on so long here they'll then have the huge debts and how we'll repay them to report on.

Peter Flynt

From July 5-19 not only do NPHET & politicians not want you to socialise indoors they don't want you doing that in any other country either as Ireland won't have signed up to the EU green cert on July 1st (like everyone else in the EU).

ninebeanrows

Looking around what's happening in Europe

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53640249

It would beyond ridiculous not to open indoor hospitality to at least 50% from 5 July

hmmm

Avon8 wrote: »

Couple that with the prospect of losing the busiest 3 weeks of the year and anyone with even a passing presence on social media can see references of their utter despair at this likely news. I'm not sure how you can say the resistance to reopening may be less than expected.

I can't see the Government making the same mistake three times of reopening too early and having to close businesses down in a panic.

They'll wait for the modelling to show that enough people are vaccinated so that Delta won't pose much of a threat.

It's very tough I know for those businesses who may be affected, but no-one in government will want to keep the place locked down any longer than is necessary. The end is still in sight as we increase our vaccination coverage.

prunudo

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed on the Danish game. It's not even clear where they caught it, they could all have been sharing a car for all we know.

On the other hand Delta I think is the real deal. The Australian contact tracing is showing genuine examples of spread with minimal contact. I think the Government will be cautious given the uncertainty, and even the talk of allowing J&J and AZ for younger people shows that we may make a dash to push out as many vaccines as possible as quickly as possible.

That was one thing that struck me odd. How could they categorically say they got it at the match. You could test every resident in a 25k town and probably get more than 3 cases. Doesn't mean they all go it at the local supermarket or park.


Regarding Australia, I've always been worried by their approach and how it would mean zero community immunity should covid ever get into the country. Also I believe they're having a hard time convincing their citizens to take the vaccine as they don't they need it as there's no covid there.

yourdeadwright

hmmm wrote: »

I can't see the Government making the same mistake three times of reopening too early and having to close businesses down in a panic.

They'll wait for the modelling to show that enough people are vaccinated so that Delta won't pose much of a threat.

It's very tough I know for those businesses who may be affected, but no-one in government will want to keep the place locked down any longer than is necessary. The end is still in sight as we increase our vaccination coverage.

Ends been "in sight" since March 2020 when it was just for 2 weeks

Sweet.Science

Question

If indoor dining isn't allowed will wedding still be increased to 50 ?

Sweet.Science

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Question

If indoor dining isn't allowed will wedding still be increased to 50 ?

Do you know what, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do let this happen. It would be a massive contradiction but they do love one.

They’ll argue like hotels, they are supporting the industry. While shafting the rest.

Cork2021

The government and NPHET are paralysed by fear

https://twitter.com/noelrock/status/1408377213381120005?s=21

irishguy1983

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Looking around what's happening in Europe

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53640249

It would beyond ridiculous not to open indoor hospitality to at least 50% from 5 July

I haven’t checked EVERY country in Europe but it does appear as though we are the slowest to open up/have the harshest restrictions…..Can anyone dispute this????

hmmm

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Ends been "in sight" since March 2020 when it was just for 2 weeks

It's really boring listening to this line being trotted out now. Just because people who had never done any basic research about the timeline between cases, hospitalisations, deaths were saying that they hoped restrictions could be lifted in days and weeks, doesn't mean they were ever correct - and plenty of us on here were pointing out that each wave would last months.

The end has always been vaccines which were at least a year away from March 2020 (with some people saying it was going to be years/never).

SortingYouOut

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Ends been "in sight" since March 2020 when it was just for 2 weeks

Did anyone actually believe that? Shortest pandemic in history if that had been the case.

What Username Guidelines

Anyone know the approx waiting time for results these days?

Kid in my daughters class was sent in all this week spluttering (and her younger sister and both parents coughing at drop off too apparently:rolleyes:). My kid started coughing yesterday morning too, so brought her out to citywest as a walk-in, was pleasantly surprised by the efficiency. Hopefully get results at some stage today.

seamus

Klonker wrote: »

It's not true to say there's no comments to suggest we won't reopen, there has been loads. A member of NPHET, Mary Favier said as much on national radio. Every paper is saying its likely to happen and we know they are very accurate with their leaks.

AdamD wrote: »

Regarding July 5th, my optimism is dwindling. I could be wrong, but I'm not sure we've ever had a situation where a delay has been touted in the media only to not occur? Its front and center of the Irish Times website right now:
'Full return of pubs and restaurants on July 5th looking unlikely'.

The way our country has been run for the last year (we hear through the media first before any official announcements) leads me to believe that's going to be the case.

The media have been very accurate with some leaks, 24-48 hours before the announcement. Outside of that, no so much. Only last week the IT announced the vaccine portal was going to open for the next phase, before being swiftly smacked down again by Colm Henry.

If you actually read the IT article above, it is basically without any substance. "Our sources told us what they think other people are thinking could potentially be the advice from NPHET".

One paragraph though does lay out a likely scenario where it won't be a big-bang reopening, but a phased one. So indoor training, weddings and other indoor events and larger outdoor events will be permitted on the 5th, followed a week later by things like bowling alleys and pool halls, followed then by casual eating and drinking around the 19th.

Still though, there would want to be strong justification for it. "This variant which as yet appears to be no issue for the most part is the reason we're pushing everything back", is not a good look. I would expect "robust exchanges" (to quote Eamon Ryan) between Varadkar and Holohan again if that's the excuse.

yourdeadwright

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Did anyone actually believe that? Shortest pandemic in history if that had been the case.

It wasn't yet a pandemic was it ?

timmyntc

hmmm wrote: »

It's really boring listening to this line being trotted out now. Just because people who had never done any basic research about the timeline between cases, hospitalisations, deaths were saying that they hoped restrictions could be lifted in days and weeks, doesn't mean they were ever correct - and plenty of us on here were pointing out that each wave would last months.

The end has always been vaccines which were at least a year away from March 2020 (with some people saying it was going to be years/never).

They're already talking about booster shots being needed - so if thats the case, then vaccines arent really "the end" - because the goalposts keep shifting. We keep needing to administer more and more vaccines, more boosters all the time.

What Username Guidelines

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Did anyone actually believe that? Shortest pandemic in history if that had been the case.

Remember how mental those weeks were. #StayHome on instagram and everyone baking bread and doing stuff like it was a gift that we were getting a couple of weeks to ourselves, etc. I remember thinking maybe I was losing the plot to think that it's blindingly obvious this is gonna go on a bit longer.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

I can't see the Government making the same mistake three times of reopening too early and having to close businesses down in a panic.

They'll wait for the modelling to show that enough people are vaccinated so that Delta won't pose much of a threat.

It's very tough I know for those businesses who may be affected, but no-one in government will want to keep the place locked down any longer than is necessary. The end is still in sight as we increase our vaccination coverage.

So lockdown from March 2020 would have been the best approach? Lockdown to avoid any lockdown.

Not sure how on earth you can actually claim reopening too soon is an issue in Ireland of all places... We've clearly being the slowest in the world to reopen on several occasions and are constantly the outlier in Europe.

It the end really in sight? We'll have to wait and see. Unless I'm able to go to a gig in the 3arena without a mask on in the next few weeks, then I don't believe the end is in sight.

seamus

yourdeadwright wrote: »

It wasn't yet a pandemic was it ?

It was actually. It was only when the WHO declared it a pandemic that most of the EU bothered their holes doing something about it. It was declared a pandemic on 11th March and we took the first steps into lockdown (closing all schools and govt. offices) the next day.

Gael23

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Looking around what's happening in Europe

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53640249

It would beyond ridiculous not to open indoor hospitality to at least 50% from 5 July

Is something like 50% capacity for 2 weeks from July 5th a reasonable compromise?

hynesie08

Gael23 wrote: »

Is something like 50% capacity for 2 weeks from July 5th a reasonable compromise?

If they insist on 2m spacing for no Time limit, most places will be running at that anyway.

Klonker

hmmm wrote: »

I can't see the Government making the same mistake three times of reopening too early and having to close businesses down in a panic.

They'll wait for the modelling to show that enough people are vaccinated so that Delta won't pose much of a threat.

It's very tough I know for those businesses who may be affected, but no-one in government will want to keep the place locked down any longer than is necessary. The end is still in sight as we increase our vaccination coverage.

When was these 3 times opening too early? You make it out like it would of been possible to never reimpose restrictions since last March. The only way to of done that would have to never reopen anything. Name one country that never reimposed restrictions? What you need to do is reimpose restrictions when necessary, unlike what was done last October.

hmmm

seamus wrote: »

One paragraph though does lay out a likely scenario where it won't be a big-bang reopening, but a phased one. So indoor training, weddings and other indoor events and larger outdoor events will be permitted on the 5th, followed a week later by things like bowling alleys and pool halls, followed then by casual eating and drinking around the 19th.

Still though, there would want to be strong justification for it. "This variant which as yet appears to be no issue for the most part is the reason we're pushing everything back", is not a good look. I would expect "robust exchanges" (to quote Eamon Ryan) between Varadkar and Holohan again if that's the excuse.

I'd announce a September bank holiday to help tourism & hospitality businesses.

I can't see the Government going against the medical advice this time.

Anyone who can read between the large lines of the Taoiseach asking for age restrictions on J&J and AZ to be lifted can see what is going to happen.

Klonker

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Looking around what's happening in Europe

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53640249

It would beyond ridiculous not to open indoor hospitality to at least 50% from 5 July

Most are opening nightclubs while we have people here justifying putting off opening indoor dining. Really is crazy stuff.

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

They're already talking about booster shots being needed - so if thats the case, then vaccines arent really "the end" - because the goalposts keep shifting. We keep needing to administer more and more vaccines, more boosters all the time.

Exactly, full expecting the goalposts to shift again in the future. Only boosters will help us from "Insert Variant". We just need to get everyone a booster. A few more weeks.

Wolf359f

Gael23 wrote: »

Is something like 50% capacity for 2 weeks from July 5th a reasonable compromise?

So a pub opens and is jam packed. Guards arrive, owner explains he normally has 2x as many, 'they do be swinging from the rafters pre pandemic' etc...
It's not America, we don't have maximum occupancy limits we can easily adjust, same for distinguishing between a pub and a restaurant etc...

SortingYouOut

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Remember how mental those weeks were. #StayHome on instagram and everyone baking bread and doing stuff like it was a gift that we were getting a couple of weeks to ourselves, etc. I remember thinking maybe I was losing the plot to think that it's blindingly obvious this is gonna go on a bit longer.

Ah it was a grand bit of time for some people. Time to renew yourself, reflect, take up a hobby and look after the garden for a few weeks.

In my head I was just thinking, if it made it's way from China and across the globe in a few months, how exactly will us locking down for two weeks bring an end to this global issue. Even if we somehow got the cases to complete zero, there was always a country who wouldn't and it would always jump right back without immunity.

Mad looking back at it all!