Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Economics101

Latest from Paul Reid in the Indo: "Every day counts". So the next 24 hours are vital? Makes a bit of a change from the next 2 weeks being vital. If only they were as good at getting coherent policy implementation as they are at producing cliches.

Arghus

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Remember how mental those weeks were. #StayHome on instagram and everyone baking bread and doing stuff like it was a gift that we were getting a couple of weeks to ourselves, etc. I remember thinking maybe I was losing the plot to think that it's blindingly obvious this is gonna go on a bit longer.

This thread and this forum can function like an insight into an alternate reality sometimes because there wasn't a single person that I knew who didn't accept this thing was going to go on longer than two weeks...three weeks....four weeks.... that really there was no set date when things would be swinging back to normal again.

Timeframes like two to three weeks were put out there at the start so people - including the government - could get their head around what was going on - when everything was entirely without precedent, nothing was normal and there was no way to predict what lay ahead in any sense.

If you actually believed that figure of a couple of weeks, I can see why you'd be annoyed now - but you're also incredibly naive and have fundamentally misunderstood what is going on since the start.

Edit: That came out sounding unnecessarily harsh. I appreciate that maybe people had to make themselves believe that two or three weeks stuff at the time to make sense of it all and not to be overwhelmed - but if you're still clinging to that now...well...

hmmm

Klonker wrote: »

When was these 3 times opening too early? You make it out like it would of been possible to never reimpose restrictions since last March. The only way to of done that would have to never reopen anything. Name one country that never reimposed restrictions? What you need to do is reimpose restrictions when necessary, unlike what was done last October.

It became obvious very early on that this was a virus which was primarily transmitted through air circulation indoors in places where people spend an extended amount of time. Every time we have pushed to reopen indoors, we have been shocked (shocked) to find that the case rate shoots up.

I believe we could have allowed businesses remain open (outdoors) throughout this, but we have had this continuous push to reopen indoors locations which has screwed us every single time. With the vaccines being deployed we will be able to open indoors, but I can understand why the government will want to be sure that they will remain open this time.

seamus

Klonker wrote: »

Most are opening nightclubs while we have people here justifying putting off opening indoor dining. Really is crazy stuff.

That's not really what it says though, is it.
If you look through the list, it's varied. The countries with the loosest restrictions require you to be certified covid-free to get in anywhere. Others still have curfews in place and/or restrictions on the sale of alcohol. Others allow for local restrictions and bye-laws. In many aspects our restrictions are looser and simpler.

Obsessively focussing on indoor dining as the sole measure of how restricted a country is, is odd.

How can you say, for example, that Ireland is less open than Germany, if in Germany you can't go to the shops, watch a movie or get your hair cut without proof that you don't have covid?

Klonker

hmmm wrote: »

It became obvious very early on that this was a virus which was primarily transmitted through air circulation indoors in places where people spend an extended amount of time. Every time we have pushed to reopen indoors, we have been shocked (shocked) to find that the case rate shoots up.

I believe we could have allowed businesses remain open (outdoors) throughout this, but we have had this continuous push to reopen indoors locations which has screwed us every single time. With the vaccines being deployed we will be able to open indoors, but I can understand why the government will want to be sure that they will remain open this time.

Come on, do you really think indoor hospitality caused the lockdown in October? People mix outside on public establishments. People were going to each others homes, mixing in work, schools etc. At Christmas I'm sure indoor hospitality was some aspect to the surge then but I don't believe it was the biggest contributor. People were visiting family and friends houses during Christmas like the always do at Christmas, houseparties all over the place. Especially after being in lockdown for the 2 months preceding this, it creates pent up demand for socialising.

VG31

seamus wrote: »

People overall are happy I think with outdoor eating and drinking. I've yet to hear anyone around me complaining that they'd prefer to be indoors. A pub near me has managed to make more space outside than they have ever had inside and have said they're doing the best business they have in years.

Try outdoor dining in Achill and you might have a different experience.

I was in Mayo last week and it's just as well there's indoor dining in hotels as sitting outside in the wind and rain was horrible. Outdoor dining generally works well enough in Dublin or the east of the country but on the Atlantic coast it's no fun at all.

Gael23

Wolf359f wrote: »

So a pub opens and is jam packed. Guards arrive, owner explains he normally has 2x as many, 'they do be swinging from the rafters pre pandemic' etc...
It's not America, we don't have maximum occupancy limits we can easily adjust, same for distinguishing between a pub and a restaurant etc...

Only seated customers, no standing.

At least indoors

VG31

hmmm wrote: »

The end has always been vaccines which were at least a year away from March 2020 (with some people saying it was going to be years/never).

A few months ago I would have agreed with you but the goalposts keep shifting. We've gone from:

Vaccinate the vulnerable -> Vaccinate a critical mass of the population (60% was the original figure but it's gone up and up) -> Vaccinate all adults

By September when all adults are vaccinated it will be what about the unvaccinated kids? Then what about the elderly and vulnerable who need boosters?

Hopefully I'm wrong but the way it's going there's no obvious end to this cycle.

Klonker

seamus wrote: »

The media have been very accurate with some leaks, 24-48 hours before the announcement. Outside of that, no so much. Only last week the IT announced the vaccine portal was going to open for the next phase, before being swiftly smacked down again by Colm Henry.

If you actually read the IT article above, it is basically without any substance. "Our sources told us what they think other people are thinking could potentially be the advice from NPHET".

One paragraph though does lay out a likely scenario where it won't be a big-bang reopening, but a phased one. So indoor training, weddings and other indoor events and larger outdoor events will be permitted on the 5th, followed a week later by things like bowling alleys and pool halls, followed then by casual eating and drinking around the 19th.

Still though, there would want to be strong justification for it. "This variant which as yet appears to be no issue for the most part is the reason we're pushing everything back", is not a good look. I would expect "robust exchanges" (to quote Eamon Ryan) between Varadkar and Holohan again if that's the excuse.

Look, I'm not saying it's going to be delayed but don't pretend it's not being mentioned as very possible and I'm sure if a bookies was taking odds now they'd a delay of lifting would be the favourite.

I'm too lazy give links but I mentioned Mary Favier on the radio suggesting a delay. Paul Reid saying government have a very hard decision to make and we can't go back to dark days of Jan and Feb. Micheal Martin said CMO outlined his concerns on Delta and going against advice would be very hard. Leo mentioning dark clouds on the horizon.

I'm hopeful cases will stay steady and hospitalisations continue to drop so we won't delay reopening but the fact its even debatable at this stage is crazy imo.

Avon8

Arghus wrote: »

[This thread and this forum can function like an insight into an alternate reality sometimes because there wasn't a single person that I knew who didn't accept this thing was going to go on longer than two weeks...three weeks....four weeks.... that really there was no set date when things would be swinging back to normal again.

Timeframes like two to three weeks were put out there at the start so people - including the government - could get their head around what was going on - when everything was entirely without precedent, nothing was normal and there was no way to predict what lay ahead in any sense.

If you actually believed that figure of a couple of weeks, I can see why you'd be annoyed now - but you're also incredibly naive and have fundamentally misunderstood what is going on since the start.

Edit: That came out sounding unnecessarily harsh. I appreciate that maybe people had to make themselves believe that two or three weeks stuff at the time to make sense of it all and not to be overwhelmed - but if you're still clinging to that now...well...

Its abundantly clear that nobody here believed the two weeks thing either, so why the dig at the thread?

90% of the references to "two weeks more" are sneering jokes at the constant message of "the next two weeks are crucial" which didn't just happen as a way to buy time given unknowns at the beginning like you're implying, but right through the summer when cases were in single digits and indeed right up to the end of 2020, until it became clear that message was doing more harm than good.

The jokes may be outdated, but lets not confuse them and assume its people's lack of understanding or idiocy

What Username Guidelines

Avon8 wrote: »

Its abundantly clear that nobody here believed the two weeks thing either, so why the dig at the thread?

90% of the references to "two weeks more" are sneering jokes at the constant message of "the next two weeks are crucial" which didn't just happen as a way to buy time given unknowns at the beginning like you're implying, but right through the summer when cases were in single digits and indeed right up to the end of 2020, until it became clear that message was doing more harm than good.

The jokes may be outdated, but lets not confuse them and assume its people's lack of understanding or idiocy

There were plenty of people utterly shocked when Leo announced the 3 week lockdown would become 5 weeks. Yes there are "crucial 2-week" jokes alright, but also many people, perhaps who weren't following the news overlay closely, that bought into the message.

Klonker

seamus wrote: »

That's not really what it says though, is it.
If you look through the list, it's varied. The countries with the loosest restrictions require you to be certified covid-free to get in anywhere. Others still have curfews in place and/or restrictions on the sale of alcohol. Others allow for local restrictions and bye-laws. In many aspects our restrictions are looser and simpler.

Obsessively focussing on indoor dining as the sole measure of how restricted a country is, is odd.

How can you say, for example, that Ireland is less open than Germany, if in Germany you can't go to the shops, watch a movie or get your hair cut without proof that you don't have covid?

If you see my post, I said most. Yes I'd say Germany is more open. Go get free antigen tests every few days and you can do all those things. They're also lifting compulsory wfh at end of month.

You cherry picked the next most restrictive country and we're still a lot more restrictive than us. If Delta is going to be as harmful enough for us to delay reopening indoors shouldn't all these countries be closing all their indoors now? But what they are actually doing is planning for more easing

ednwireland

VG31 wrote: »

Try outdoor dining in Achill and you might have a different experience.

I was in Mayo last week and it's just as well there's indoor dining in hotels as sitting outside in the wind and rain was horrible. Outdoor dining generally works well enough in Dublin or the east of the country but on the Atlantic coast it's no fun at all.

barely anyone dining out in the lashing rain yesterday lunchtime in sw donegal.
to be fair all looked pretty full today.

not sure I'd want to sit out in the evening when its 11 degrees or lower.

Avon8

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

There were plenty of people utterly shocked when Leo announced the 3 week lockdown would become 5 weeks. Yes there are "crucial 2-week" jokes alright, but also many people, perhaps who weren't following the news overlay closely, that bought into the message.

Elderly People who's only news source was RTE and Leo's announcements maybe. Nobody visiting these threads with 50 pages of discussion a day and countless articles being shared of the situation worldwide were under any illusions that we'd be locked down for a while. It's here that was being referred to

Arghus

Avon8 wrote: »

Elderly People who's only news source was RTE and Leo's announcements maybe. Nobody visiting these threads with 50 pages of discussion a day and countless articles being shared of the situation worldwide were under any illusions that we'd be locked down for a while. It's here that was being referred to

I know there's a distinction between people commentating with "the next two weeks are crucial" and people being stunned that the situation has gone on longer than expected - but I assure you there was a proportion of the commentary here that was shocked going into April 2020 that this was still ongoing and have been pissed off about it ever since - go back and look if you don't believe me; I especially recommend the first relaxation of restrictions thread: there's reams of posts in there since Day One giving out about measures being in place longer than was initially announced.

I've been reading here - not always this particular thread - people proclaiming since April onwards of last year that it was all over and it was time to move on. Much as they were in May, June..September..December, January... but I guess that's an entirely different issue.

Rayne Wooney

How does 2 weeks benefit us, what difference does 600,000 vaccines make at this point when it’s administered to people not filling the hospitals, is it worth the substantial cost of not reopening for another 2 weeks. I don’t know how this could be imposed on us without the above questions answered.

What are they predicting will happen here, if we open tomorrow and follow the same course as the UK we’ll have 100-150 people in hospital by end of August, 6.5 - 7 million vaccinations given out. Are we going to fare worse than the UK for some reason? Is Delta going to hospitalise 10 times as many here than there?

I’d like to see their worst case prediction, just to see how far beyond the realm of possibility it really is.

GeorgeBailey

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

How does 2 weeks benefit us, what difference does 600,000 vaccines make at this point when it’s administered to people not filling the hospitals
.

Second doses of AZ are to have finished round mid-July. So we're probably talking most of them being in a somewhat vulnerable age group. Not saying I think that we should delay but there is at least some important vaccinations to happen in the time period.

Klonker

Do we know how many daily admissions to hospital we're currently having? It must be in single digits at this stage.

ninebeanrows

If they announce next week that indoor hospitality is definitely to open on 19 July, I think it will be accepted by the industry.

If they try and say, we will postpone the decision another 2 weeks, then it will not be accepted and there really is a question mark whether it will open for many months.

Arghus

Arghus wrote: »

I know there's a distinction between people commentating with "the next two weeks are crucial" and people being stunned that the situation has gone on longer than expected - but I assure you there was a proportion of the commentary here that was shocked going into April 2020 that this was still ongoing and have been pissed off about it ever since - go back and look if you don't believe me; I especially recommend the first relaxation of restrictions thread: there's reams of posts in there since Day One giving out about measures being in place longer than was initially announced.

I've been reading here - not always this particular thread - people proclaiming since April onwards of last year that it was all over and it was time to move on. Much as they were in May, June..September..December, January... but I guess that's an entirely different issue.

Well, it was essentially over last May. At least the first wave. We should have reopened almost fully right up until mid November.

A 2nd lockdown would have been justified as we had another peak over Christmas period during respiratory illness season.

We really should have gotten rid of the travel restrictions as far back as February and have almost all restrictions gone by now.

Somewhere along the line we lost all sight of the fact that lockdown is an extreme measure that should only be used to prevent deaths and overwhelmed hospitals. Now the goal seems to be stop Covid at any cost.

Wolf359f

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

How does 2 weeks benefit us, what difference does 600,000 vaccines make at this point when it’s administered to people not filling the hospitals, is it worth the substantial cost of not reopening for another 2 weeks. I don’t know how this could be imposed on us without the above questions answered.

What are they predicting will happen here, if we open tomorrow and follow the same course as the UK we’ll have 100-150 people in hospital by end of August, 6.5 - 7 million vaccinations given out. Are we going to fare worse than the UK for some reason? Is Delta going to hospitalise 10 times as many here than there?

I’d like to see their worst case prediction, just to see how far beyond the realm of possibility it really is.

A high % of that 600k will be second doses for HCW's, some of cohort 4 and the 60-69 age group. Those 3 groups without their second dose are at higher risk vs the Delta variant compared to say 50 year olds fully vaccinated with Pfizer/moderna. You could say we owe it to those 3 groups to make sure they have the same level of protection as those below them not as high of a risk.

But basically, getting those second jabs is of high importance. So much so that they reduced the AZ gap and quite a few Dublin MVC's have being soley doing AZ second jabs all this week (hence the reason for the delay in Dublin 40 year old group getting their appointment)

JP100

Are all the other things that was supposed to go ahead on July the 5th still going ahead and is it just the indoor dining aspect that is potentially been paused?

VG31

Good news... Malta or the UK will probably be next. We should be able to achieve a similar level of uptake here.

Iceland set to be first European country to lift all Covid restrictions

Iceland will remove all Covid restrictions on Saturday and is expected to be the first European country to do so, reports Reuters.

The health minister, Svandís Svavarsdóttir, said on Friday that from Saturday Icelanders will no longer have to social distance or wear masks..

The country has a well-regarded test and trace system and has enforced lockdown measures several times to stop spikes in infections.

Svavarsdóttir said:

We are restoring the society we are used to living in and which we have longed for.

Restrictions included limits on public gatherings and a social distancing rule of two metres.

A staggering 87% of people in Iceland have had their first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, reportedly the highest rate among comparable countries.

Iceland, which has a population of just 360,000 people, has an infection incidence of 1.6 per 100,000 on a fortnightly average. Its death toll is also comparatively low. Overall, 30 people have died from a total 6,637 Covid infections.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jun/25/coronavirus-live-news-eu-countries-look-to-toughen-restrictions-on-travel-from-uk?page=with:block-60d5d3dd8f0814bdddf9b186#block-60d5d3dd8f0814bdddf9b186

Doctor Jimbob

VG31 wrote: »

Good news... Malta or the UK will probably be next. We should be able to achieve a similar level of uptake here.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jun/25/coronavirus-live-news-eu-countries-look-to-toughen-restrictions-on-travel-from-uk?page=with:block-60d5d3dd8f0814bdddf9b186#block-60d5d3dd8f0814bdddf9b186

They must not know about the situation in the UK.

VG31

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They must not know about the situation in the UK.

They have 87% of their population vaccinated. If that's not enough to lift all restrictions what is?

Doctor Jimbob

VG31 wrote: »

They have 87% of their population vaccinated. If that's not enough to lift all restrictions what is?

They're right to be lifting the restrictions, I'm just poking fun at our own cautious approach.

namloc1980

JP100 wrote: »

Are all the other things that was supposed to go ahead on July the 5th still going ahead and is it just the indoor dining aspect that is potentially been paused?

NPHET will tell Martin what he can announce next week. Until then who knows.

Klonker

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

They're right to be lifting the restrictions, I'm just poking fun at our own cautious approach.

They surely must mean 87% of adults. 87% of population would mean every single adult would need to have a first dose.

I hate the confusion with % of adults and % of population. Media are always mixing them up.

mloc123

ednwireland wrote: »

barely anyone dining out in the lashing rain yesterday lunchtime in sw donegal.
to be fair all looked pretty full today.

not sure I'd want to sit out in the evening when its 11 degrees or lower.

It will make it very hard for places to plan stock etc... most places packed out last weekend with the nice weather, this weekend not looking as likely

KrustyUCC

ninebeanrows wrote: »

If they announce next week that indoor hospitality is definitely to open on 19 July, I think it will be accepted by the industry.

If they try and say, we will postpone the decision another 2 weeks, then it will not be accepted and there really is a question mark whether it will open for many months.

They won't give definites

It will be reevaluate in two to three weeks time