Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Spanish Eyes

I am working on the basis that indoor socialising will not happen as planned on 5th July. There is a lot of kite flying going on about a further delay.

I'm not going to get annoyed about it, no point, there is nothing I can do to change things.

However, if things do open up as originally planned that will be a great bonus for the hospitality trade and the punters alike. Just have to wait and see.

namloc1980

KrustyUCC wrote: »

They won't give definites

It will be reevaluate in two to three weeks time

Which is useless to businesses dealing in food.

Wait until the talk in August of protecting the return to school and we'll be into Autumn and Winter then. They just need to open up now! Entire businesses are going to have another lost summer if they delay opening. Heartbreaking for them.

Tyrone212

Nightclubs opening in France the first week of July.

seamus

Klonker wrote: »

Look, I'm not saying it's going to be delayed but don't pretend it's not being mentioned as very possible and I'm sure if a bookies was taking odds now they'd a delay of lifting would be the favourite.

There is no universe though in which that is not the case if you think about it. We could have no cases, nobody in ICU, 60% fully vaccinated, and there would still be commentators suggesting that delaying reopening is prudent because of variants. Just because commentators are talking about something, doesn't increase the likelihood of it happening.

Like I say, the fact that Donnelly, Varadkar and Martin aren't actively sandbagging right now, tells me that a delay gets less and less likely all the time.

The UK started laying the groundwork for delaying their reopening at least two weeks beforehand. First they started added random countries (except India) to their travel lists based on "the variant", then it was all talk about the concerning number of outbreaks across the country. They pushed back their reopening with seven days to go, but by the time they did it, it was very clear that it was coming. It had been building in the media all week and then leaked unambiguously on the Friday, before the announcement on the Monday.

We are now ten days away from our own next phase, and everyone seems to be thinking that we're 50:50 on whether it's going happen. So unless a story breaks today that shifts it considerably, then there is no way it's getting pushed back next week.
At worst, it'll be moved from a single reopening to phased one.

None of know for sure of course, this is just my commentary as I see it. Politicians never want bad news to be a surprise. They aim to carefully drip it out. In this case, all I see is speculation from commentators, not hints and suggestions from the actual people inside the circle.

Mary Favier is merely one advisor out of the 41 or whatever. It would be a mistake to assume she is representative of them all. Her day job is representing GPs, and her comments in relation to delaying reopening were more related to that role than they were to her position on NPHET.

podgeandrodge

Klonker wrote: »

Do we know how many daily admissions to hospital we're currently having? It must be in single digits at this stage.

Hotels have been open for a while now. With indoor dining and indoor drinking.

No surge as a result. None at all that I've heard of. That's residents staying week in week out and no outbreaks. (Though I guess I'll be told of one shortly!).

There is no reason to delay reopening on 5 July, none.

We can see what the Indian Variant is doing in the UK -- nothing whatsoever. Cases rising, but no hospitals overwhelmed. They are set to drop all restrictions in 3.5 weeks.

If it's good enough for the UK who have performed the experiment with the variant, then it's good enough for us.

We have to learn to live with the virus, and that means taking some degree of personal risk.

That personal risk evaluation should not be determined by Government. The crisis phase of the pandemic is quite clearly over.

Klonker

seamus wrote: »

There is no universe though in which that is not the case if you think about it. We could have no cases, nobody in ICU, 60% fully vaccinated, and there would still be commentators suggesting that delaying reopening is prudent because of variants. Just because commentators are talking about something, doesn't increase the likelihood of it happening.

Like I say, the fact that Donnelly, Varadkar and Martin aren't actively sandbagging right now, tells me that a delay gets less and less likely all the time.

The UK started laying the groundwork for delaying their reopening at least two weeks beforehand. First they started added random countries (except India) to their travel lists based on "the variant", then it was all talk about the concerning number of outbreaks across the country. They pushed back their reopening with seven days to go, but by the time they did it, it was very clear that it was coming. It had been building in the media all week and then leaked unambiguously on the Friday, before the announcement on the Monday.

We are now ten days away from our own next phase, and everyone seems to be thinking that we're 50:50 on whether it's going happen. So unless a story breaks today that shifts it considerably, then there is no way it's getting pushed back next week.
At worst, it'll be moved from a single reopening to phased one.

None of know for sure of course, this is just my commentary as I see it. Politicians never want bad news to be a surprise. They aim to carefully drip it out. In this case, all I see is speculation from commentators, not hints and suggestions from the actual people inside the circle.

Mary Favier is merely one advisor out of the 41 or whatever. It would be a mistake to assume she is representative of them all. Her day job is representing GPs, and her comments in relation to delaying reopening were more related to that role than they were to her position on NPHET.

I guess we'll have to disagree. I think it's a very bad sign that a member of the advicing body is advocating for a delay even if doing it respect to her separate full time role.

A phased reopening is a delay, lets not pretend it's not. It would be great if weddings, sports, event numbers aren't delayed but indoor hospitality is the big one in terms of numbers it'll effect and financially. That's the one most likely to be pushed back.

podgeandrodge

We need to flatten the curve though. :rolleyes:

Deeper Blue

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is no reason to delay reopening on 5 July, none.

We can see what the Indian Variant is doing in the UK -- nothing whatsoever. Cases rising, but no hospitals overwhelmed. They are set to drop all restrictions in 3.5 weeks.

If it's good enough for the UK who have performed the experiment with the variant, then it's good enough for us.

We have to learn to live with the virus, and that means taking some degree of personal risk.

That personal risk evaluation should not be determined by Government. The crisis phase of the pandemic is quite clearly over.

We'll probably have to hold our own test events first though because we're different.

Hold firm

Cork2021

Anyone have an opinion on this? Looks good to me. Plus nearly 7million people on this island! 54 in hospitals with 13 of those in icu! One part has indoor hospitality open with stable hospitals and has opened the vaccine programme for anyone over 18

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408365194070351876?s=21

Rayne Wooney

Wolf359f wrote: »

A high % of that 600k will be second doses for HCW's, some of cohort 4 and the 60-69 age group. Those 3 groups without their second dose are at higher risk vs the Delta variant compared to say 50 year olds fully vaccinated with Pfizer/moderna. You could say we owe it to those 3 groups to make sure they have the same level of protection as those below them not as high of a risk.

But basically, getting those second jabs is of high importance. So much so that they reduced the AZ gap and quite a few Dublin MVC's have being soley doing AZ second jabs all this week (hence the reason for the delay in Dublin 40 year old group getting their appointment)

What are the chances of that small minority of the population you mention getting the disease in the two weeks after 5th July?

The vaccinations will happen regardless - if those people choose to be in the pub for those two weeks they’ve made their decision.

You have to admit this is complete madness.

Peter Flynt

eskimohunt wrote: »

There is no reason to delay reopening on 5 July, none.

We can see what the Indian Variant is doing in the UK -- nothing whatsoever. Cases rising, but no hospitals overwhelmed. They are set to drop all restrictions in 3.5 weeks.

If it's good enough for the UK who have performed the experiment with the variant, then it's good enough for us.

We have to learn to live with the virus, and that means taking some degree of personal risk.

That personal risk evaluation should not be determined by Government. The crisis phase of the pandemic is quite clearly over.

There is something else at play.

Apparently only 25% of those in their sixties (who took AZ vaccine already) have been fully vaccinated.

Our entire response to Coronavirus needs to be independently investigated by someone from abroad with expertise.

We don't have experts on this in Ireland.

If other countries are fully or nearly fully opened then the Irish people are entitled to know why they are being asked to still carry out pre-vaccination lockdown style measures.

My opinion on it is that it all comes down to the health service and a decade of understaffing and underfunding.

It's a total f**k up.

Wolf359f

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

What are the chances of that small minority of the population you mention getting the disease in the two weeks after 5th July?

The vaccinations will happen regardless - if those people choose to be in the pub for those two weeks they’ve made their decision.

You have to admit this is complete madness.

Well for HCW's I'd would be rather high even if they stayed out of the pub (assuming we see an uptick in hospital admissions). All going to plan it would be technically 2 weeks after those 2 weeks when their full protection kicks in.
With the caveat, that if/when cases rise, unless people act reckless or like Xmas, cases shouldn't spike that soon.

There's a lag for their vaccine to kick in, a lag for cases to increase, a lag (hopefully) of cases possibly reducing due to primary schools closing for the summer etc...

So there's alot to it, alot more than people realise.

RGS

seamus wrote: »

There is no universe though in which that is not the case if you think about it. We could have no cases, nobody in ICU, 60% fully vaccinated, and there would still be commentators suggesting that delaying reopening is prudent because of variants. Just because commentators are talking about something, doesn't increase the likelihood of it happening.

Like I say, the fact that Donnelly, Varadkar and Martin aren't actively sandbagging right now, tells me that a delay gets less and less likely all the time.

The UK started laying the groundwork for delaying their reopening at least two weeks beforehand. First they started added random countries (except India) to their travel lists based on "the variant", then it was all talk about the concerning number of outbreaks across the country. They pushed back their reopening with seven days to go, but by the time they did it, it was very clear that it was coming. It had been building in the media all week and then leaked unambiguously on the Friday, before the announcement on the Monday.

We are now ten days away from our own next phase, and everyone seems to be thinking that we're 50:50 on whether it's going happen. So unless a story breaks today that shifts it considerably, then there is no way it's getting pushed back next week.
At worst, it'll be moved from a single reopening to phased one.

None of know for sure of course, this is just my commentary as I see it. Politicians never want bad news to be a surprise. They aim to carefully drip it out. In this case, all I see is speculation from commentators, not hints and suggestions from the actual people inside the circle.

Mary Favier is merely one advisor out of the 41 or whatever. It would be a mistake to assume she is representative of them all. Her day job is representing GPs, and her comments in relation to delaying reopening were more related to that role than they were to her position on NPHET.

Its not just Favier, Walley was on NT saying the same thing,


Heres an extract of an article in the examiner:
"the chair of the Irish Medical Organisation's GP committee said the Government should not rely on the number of hospitalisations associated with Covid-19 when making decisions about easing restrictions next week."


ISAG took over the airwaves earlier in the week,


Reid from the IT "the State was at a “point of unease and apprehension as to what might happen next”.


Its clearly a concerted effort to pressure the government.

Peter Flynt

Peter Flynt wrote: »

There is something else at play.

Apparently only 25% of those in their sixties (who took AZ vaccine already) have been fully vaccinated.

Yes - but the Indian variant will not reach all over 60s in the next 4-weeks.

TefalBrain

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Nightclubs opening in France the first week of July.

Living life.

Ireland is concerned.

TefalBrain

Peter Flynt wrote: »

There is something else at play.

Apparently only 25% of those in their sixties (who took AZ vaccine already) have been fully vaccinated.

Our entire response to Coronavirus needs to be independently investigated by someone from abroad with expertise.

We don't have experts on this in Ireland.

If other countries are fully or nearly fully opened then the Irish people are entitled to know why they are being asked to still carry out pre-vaccination lockdown style measures.

My opinion on it is that it all comes down to the health service and a decade of understaffing and underfunding.

It's a total f**k up.

Then let the over 60's who've not been fully vaccinated hibernate for another couple of weeks and let the rest get on with life.

Wolf359f

Cork2021 wrote: »

Anyone have an opinion on this? Looks good to me. Plus nearly 7million people on this island! 54 in hospitals with 13 of those in icu! One part has indoor hospitality open with stable hospitals and has opened the vaccine programme for anyone over 18

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408365194070351876?s=21

I think that's the more important piece. So last week 80% of sequenced swabs were confirmed Alpha (they do a quick check for some added or missing gene) anything missing it or having it is a different variant to Alpha. So last week 20% were non Alpha. That quickly changed to 20% was Delta....

Anyway, it appears that B.1.1.318 is growing faster than Delta.
B.1.1.318 seems to be another UK variant, information is a little scarce, it's a VOI rather than a VOC.

HildaOgdenx

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Hotels have been open for a while now. With indoor dining and indoor drinking.

No surge as a result. None at all that I've heard of. That's residents staying week in week out and no outbreaks. (Though I guess I'll be told of one shortly!).

Exactly.

And if it's safe to have people eating indoors in a hotel, it's just as safe in a restaurant or cafe.

The government need to just get on with it at this stage, and take back the power that they have so willingly handed over to NPHET, for far too long.

TefalBrain

Tony won't like this

https://news.sky.com/story/no-substantial-covid-outbreaks-reported-after-mass-test-events-report-finds-12341747

Circus Nightclub in Liverpool hosted almost 7,000 people over two nights and recorded 10 cases. Quick lock everything down!!!!! 10 cases

He's concerned

PowerToWait

TefalBrain wrote: »

Tony won't like this

https://news.sky.com/story/no-substantial-covid-outbreaks-reported-after-mass-test-events-report-finds-12341747

Circus Nightclub in Liverpool hosted almost 7,000 people over two nights and recorded 10 cases. Quick lock everything down!!!!! 10 cases

He's concerned

Scintillating wit.

brickster69

TefalBrain wrote: »

Tony won't like this

https://news.sky.com/story/no-substantial-covid-outbreaks-reported-after-mass-test-events-report-finds-12341747

Circus Nightclub in Liverpool hosted almost 7,000 people over two nights and recorded 10 cases. Quick lock everything down!!!!! 10 cases

He's concerned

Give him this one

https://twitter.com/CentralFMNews/status/1408442374750097408

brickster69

Hopefully Tony does not watch Formula 1

https://www.silverstone.co.uk/news/silverstone-welcome-full-crowd-2021-formula-1-british-grand-prix

seamus

RGS wrote: »

Its not just Favier, Walley was on NT saying the same thing,


Heres an extract of an article in the examiner:
"the chair of the Irish Medical Organisation's GP committee said the Government should not rely on the number of hospitalisations associated with Covid-19 when making decisions about easing restrictions next week."


ISAG took over the airwaves earlier in the week,

Walley, McCauley nor ISAG are part of NPHET though.

Walley and ISAG have been flapping gums with doom and gloom for a year and have been consistently ignored by the government.

Its clearly a concerted effort to pressure the government.

There's a concerted effort from the hospitality sector too. Someone is always pressuring the government on something.

The point is that there are little indications coming from those who actually make or influence the decisions on what way things are leaning. If they had a good inkling at this stage that they were going to push back, then we would hearing about it directly from sources in government or NPHET. But we're not. Even Dr. Favier's commentary could at best be considered a pessimistic caution rather than a clear statement of intent.

If Martin himself doesn't make a statement between now and the end of Monday that suggests quite clearly that the 5th is looking unlikely, then you can take it that it's going ahead. Martin is risk averse in relation to covid, but also in relation to politics as well. He doesn't drop bombshells.

brickster69

brickster69 wrote: »

Hopefully Tony does not watch Formula 1

https://www.silverstone.co.uk/news/silverstone-welcome-full-crowd-2021-formula-1-british-grand-prix

But, but, but... The UK delayed didn't they...

And yet they still have indoor hospitality open and a full crowd allowed at Silverstone in a few weeks.

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

But, but, but... The UK delayed didn't they...

And yet they still have indoor hospitality open and a full crowd allowed at Silverstone in a few weeks.

But but but maybe they haven't seen what is happening in Moscow!!!

It is alleged that there was 1 million on the streets of London protesting lock downs a few weeks ago, certainly was a massive massive crowd...the British Government know they can't push too far...

Renjit

This thread is same drivel over and over again. Glad I don't visit often. Guys, take some time off and chill.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think that's the more important piece. So last week 80% of sequenced swabs were confirmed Alpha (they do a quick check for some added or missing gene) anything missing it or having it is a different variant to Alpha. So last week 20% were non Alpha. That quickly changed to 20% was Delta....

Anyway, it appears that B.1.1.318 is growing faster than Delta.
B.1.1.318 seems to be another UK variant, information is a little scarce, it's a VOI rather than a VOC.

B.1.1.318 originated in Nigeria. It makes up a large proportion of cases in Greece and was responsible for the recent surge in Mauritius. It has some interesting mutations so it's a bit of a "one to watch".

hmmm

Wolf359f wrote: »

Anyway, it appears that B.1.1.318 is growing faster than Delta.
B.1.1.318 seems to be another UK variant, information is a little scarce, it's a VOI rather than a VOC.

Interesting and great chart. I imagine though that contact tracing is chasing Delta pretty aggressively, so that will have an effect on suppressing it?

Goldengirl

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

It seemed obvious to me that the plan for reopening was always meant to coincide with having the adult population as vaccinated as possible. As we didn’t hit our 80% target for end of June - then compound that with the imminence of the delta variant - it seems self-evident that the reopening would have to be delayed.

What is interesting to me is the flip in people’s attitudes — a lot of people I know now who are full vaccinated want society to reopen for them, and seem not to care for the remaining unvaccinated members of our populace who may mostly be under the age of forty, but just because it won’t kill them doesn’t mean they can’t experience complications from COVID (for further reading: long COVID). The constant trivialising of an serious disease because of its mortality rate among age cohorts is tiresome and a lazy argument.

Exactly.