Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

corkie

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1408455225158078467

As of midnight, Thursday 24 June, we are reporting
380*
confirmed cases of #COVID19.

13 in ICU. 38 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.



Cases count doesn't really matter unless a spike happens, but the above higher than daily average?

Goldengirl

Ficheall wrote: »

R numbers from wiki:

Measles 12-18
Chickenpox 10-12
Mumps 10-12
Rubella 6-7
Polio 5-7
Pertussis, I've never heard of (oh, seems it's whooping cough) but they've somehow managed to nail it down to 5.5.
Smallpox 3.5-6
I see they have Covid listed here as 2.7 (2.39-3.44) - perhaps needs updating at some point.
Hiv 2-5
SARS 2-4
etc.


R numbers are tricky to calculate - especially in a relatively new and evolving situation.


Would be interesting to see their calculations, sure, but posters on here were arguing until they were blue in the face about what "mean" "median" "outlier" "exponential" etc. meant - I'm not confident that NPHET's calculations would lead to much enlightenment for us mere mortals. Owen aside, obviously.

Those R numbers are without lockdown or other restrictions applied btw so maybe Covid should be 5 to 6 which is what it is as far as they said for unrestricted, Alpha variant ?

Wolf359f

Hardyn wrote: »

B.1.1.318 originated in Nigeria. It makes up a large proportion of cases in Greece and was responsible for the recent surge in Mauritius. It has some interesting mutations so it's a bit of a "one to watch".

Are you sure about the origination?

Sixteen cases of a new variant, VUI-202102/04 (lineage B.1.1.318), have been identified in the UK. The variant has been designated a Variant Under Investigation (VUI) by Public Health England (PHE).

Cases of this variant, understood to have originated in the UK, were first identified on 15 February through genomic horizon scanning

Then again the ECDC list the origin as unknown.
Anyways, it's one to watch.

Goldengirl

marno21 wrote: »

There is one thing that concerns me greatly atm

There is going to be an increase in “cases” when we reopen. This is without question. A case in 2021 is very very different to a case in 2020. If we have 400 cases per day, 80% asymptomatic, 19% mildly symptomatic and <<1% severe, what do we do? We could manage hundreds of “cases” indefinitely at that rate as the risk profile becomes similar to flu.

The risk profile of Covid-19 at the minute, if it were like this back last March, would not have led to the measures we saw. An airborne respiratory virus with an R0 ~ 7 is scary but a majority of the population vaccinated with a 95% efficacious vaccine changes the landscape completely.

If we delay reopening til the winter it improves transmission environment and it’ll make the surge worse. Now is our chance to open with a good balance of risk.

Majority of population not fully vaccinated only half vaxxed as yet .

Widdensushi

brickster69 wrote: »

Hopefully Tony does not watch Formula 1

https://www.silverstone.co.uk/news/silverstone-welcome-full-crowd-2021-formula-1-british-grand-prix

He would find the speed they were travelling concerning.

CruelSummer

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/public-is-being-conditioned-for-a-delay-to-indoor-dining-as-politicians-back-off-from-nphet-before-a-row-can-begin-40580834.html

Could this rag get any worse? It’s the one doing the conditioning all week. Or should I say gaslighting for clicks.

Anyone pretending delta is an actual threat to those under 40 is being dishonest as nearly all of the vulnerable groups in this age bracket are vaccinated through cohort 4 & 7. Its symptoms are that of a mild cold for goodness sake.

If the population accept this delay, it will continue definitely. People need to seriously ask themselves are they able to think critically, accept indefinite restrictions and at least 50% - 80% of hospitality to go out of business for extremely minor risk.

People also need to realise this is a bill the taxpayers of this country will have to pay, not ISAG, not NPHET or anyone else. Where is the evidence beyond the ridiculous scaremongering that any delay is justified?

Goldengirl

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Anyone know the approx waiting time for results these days?

Kid in my daughters class was sent in all this week spluttering (and her younger sister and both parents coughing at drop off too apparently:rolleyes:). My kid started coughing yesterday morning too, so brought her out to citywest as a walk-in, was pleasantly surprised by the efficiency. Hopefully get results at some stage today.

24 to 30 hours. A few I know recently had their results back within 26 hours .
Hope she is ok .

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

Are you sure about the origination?

Then again the ECDC list the origin as unknown.
Anyways, it's one to watch.

Yeah. It was first identified there in January.

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1405477217996611591?s=19

Wolf359f

Hardyn wrote: »

Yeah. It was first identified there in January.

https://twitter.com/Tuliodna/status/1405477217996611591?s=19

Very interesting that we have such a high number, similar to the delta variant. Once alpha goes, which will reign as the dominant strain? Place your bets!

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think that's the more important piece. So last week 80% of sequenced swabs were confirmed Alpha (they do a quick check for some added or missing gene) anything missing it or having it is a different variant to Alpha. So last week 20% were non Alpha. That quickly changed to 20% was Delta....

Anyway, it appears that B.1.1.318 is growing faster than Delta.
B.1.1.318 seems to be another UK variant, information is a little scarce, it's a VOI rather than a VOC.

I love the design of that chart.

Except for one slight gripe... I wish people wouldn't put those colours on charts so often. Six of those colours are indistinguishable to me. I can make-out B117 though. 10% of the people reading that chart (or at least the guys) are gonna be colourblind. But I'm only nitpicking.

Klonker

Cork2021 wrote: »

Anyone have an opinion on this? Looks good to me. Plus nearly 7million people on this island! 54 in hospitals with 13 of those in icu! One part has indoor hospitality open with stable hospitals and has opened the vaccine programme for anyone over 18

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1408365194070351876?s=21

Absolute nonsense that chart is. Week 22 should be totally ignored. How often is this report published? I can't find any previous one so I'm I right that this is the only one published so far? Why would you publish a report with the most important data (latest week) only completed by less than 20% of previous weeks.

This is purposely misleading and Tony knows it. That other variant was falling the last few weeks to barely a percent and now it's 10% and they are using the same data to justify saying that Delta is 20%. If NPHET actually believed the data in this wouldn't you think they'd be more worried about the VOI that we know little about yet and has increased 1000% in a week in percentage share of cases?

This is scandalous stuff in my opinion. As I've said previously sequincing is targeted on imported cases and when a VOC or VOI is found they target their contacts too and sequince them too. As I said in previous posts and I stand by it now even more this is purposedly misleading by Tony.

Wolf359f

Klonker wrote: »

Absolute nonsense that chart is. Week 22 should be totally ignored. How often is this report published? I can't find any previous one so I'm I right that this is the only one published so far? Why would you publish a report with the most important data (latest week) only completed by less than 20% of previous weeks.

This is purposely misleading and Tony knows it. That other variant was falling the last few weeks to barely a percent and now it's 10% and they are using the same data to justify say that Delta is 20%. If NPHET actually believed the data in this wouldn't you think they'd be more worried about the VOI that we know little about yet and has increased 1000% in a week in percentage share of cases?

This is scandalous stuff in my opinion. As I've said previously sequincing is targeted on imported cases and when a VOC or VOI is found they target their contacts too and sequince them too. As I said in previous posts and I stand by it now even more this is purposedly misleading by Tony.

The reports are published every week but they overwrite the previous one rather than adding them all separately.

The 20% was blow outta proportion. 20% of the sequenced cases were not the Alpha variant. So technically up to 20% could have been Delta (upon waiting for genome sequencing) the media ran with 20% of cases are Delta.

In relation to week 22, the document actually says week 22 figures should be taken with caution as the numbers sequenced is low etc... It's not the authors fault the media don't read the small print.

Cork2021

The smile on George Lees face!! Absolute prick!

Dr. Bre

Cork2021 wrote: »

The smile on George Lees face!! Absolute prick!

George Glee

Cork2021

This is great news and also will only increase in the 9days before the 5th of July. Illogical to keep indoor hospitality closed any longer!!

https://twitter.com/michealmartintd/status/1408472454230646797?s=21

ednwireland

funny listening to the europe covid round up. with sarah mcinerny desperately trying to find somwhere that's talking about not rolling back restrictions (there wasnt anywhere ).

CruelSummer

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/public-is-being-conditioned-for-a-delay-to-indoor-dining-as-politicians-back-off-from-nphet-before-a-row-can-begin-40580834.html

Could this rag get any worse? It’s the one doing the conditioning all week. Or should I say gaslighting for clicks.

Anyone pretending delta is an actual threat to those under 40 is being dishonest as nearly all of the vulnerable groups in this age bracket are vaccinated through cohort 4 & 7. Its symptoms are that of a mild cold for goodness sake.

If the population accept this delay, it will continue definitely. People need to seriously ask themselves are they able to think critically, accept indefinite restrictions and at least 50% - 80% of hospitality to go out of business for extremely minor risk.

People also need to realise this is a bill the taxpayers of this country will have to pay, not ISAG, not NPHET or anyone else. Where is the evidence beyond the ridiculous scaremongering that any delay is justified?

This 100%

Also the bill estimated at 2.5 Billion if covered for the MICA Scandal.
Also the childrens hospitals will top 2.5 Billion and more if raw material shortages world wide keep going.
Also the 130 Billion Climate action Bill
.......and the hits just keep on rolling..

Those of us who still have jobs will have a new universal stealth tax charge on the way.

The "wet pubs" wont be opening again this year. the incremental process will see to that. The indoor dining for cafes and restaurants will go ahead in 3-4 weeks. Then it will be nearly August. 6 weeks later we'll see another Variant ahead of the schools opening and because children are not vaccinated, they'll be the NEW vulnerable.. I heard a cafe owner on the radio saying he doesn't mind halving his capacity indoors or staying closed for another 4 weeks, he just wants clarity.

Imagine saying you've no issue with being denied your ability to trade or earn a living, you just take issue now with the manner in which they give you the bad news.. what the actual fook! I don't mind going to the wall Leo, just at least give me 2 weeks notice mate please??:rolleyes:

Martin reminds me jack Nicholson in a few good men.."you can open your café and your family run pub...YOU JUST HAVE TO ASK ME NICELY"

From the people who brought you the Kent, Brazil, south African and now the INDIAN Variant...DELTA 2..This time it's personal!!

It's about as threatening as a B movie to your health!

Klonker

Wolf359f wrote: »

The reports are published every week but they overwrite the previous one rather than adding them all separately.

The 20% was blow outta proportion. 20% of the sequenced cases were not the Alpha variant. So technically up to 20% could have been Delta (upon waiting for genome sequencing) the media ran with 20% of cases are Delta.

In relation to week 22, the document actually says week 22 figures should be taken with caution as the numbers sequenced is low etc... It's not the authors fault the media don't read the small print.

OK, I actually didnt realise this is data from a few weeks ago so I think I overreacted

My point still stands though, week 22 in this chart shows how the variants are targeted which is why the variants are so high originally until the actual random selections are added.

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1408359420338315264

The last line says it all.

More concerned with European values than Irish peoples constitutional rights and values...He stared off as a teacher and he still has that "now girls and boys" mentality..absolute shameful.

Goldengirl

Cork2021 wrote: »

The smile on George Lees face!! Absolute prick!

Thought he looked quite serious .
Want to be careful though , too serious and it would be ...
" Did you see the doom and gloom on George Lee' s face ..scaremongering !"

bucketybuck

ninebeanrows wrote: »

If they announce next week that indoor hospitality is definitely to open on 19 July, I think it will be accepted by the industry.

Tell me, if they did say hospitality could open on the 19th, why should anybody believe them?

Jinglejangle69

The protest a few weeks I laughed at thinking they were 5g idiots.

I would join in on the next one.

This has gone too far.

Not one of these people making the rules, yes rules we all have to stick to, have lost any of their salary through all of this.

80k a year for some of them, more for others.

Why would they see the other side to restrictions?

JRant

rusty cole wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1408359420338315264

The last line says it all.

More concerned with European values than Irish peoples constitutional rights and values...He stared off as a teacher and he still has that "now girls and boys" mentality..absolute shameful.

He ain’t to keen on the European value of free travel within the EU zone funnily enough.

Cork2021

Very good article and talks sense

https://twitter.com/irishtimesoped/status/1408489092455751687?s=21

GooglePlus

rusty cole wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1408359420338315264

The last line says it all.

More concerned with European values than Irish peoples constitutional rights and values...He stared off as a teacher and he still has that "now girls and boys" mentality..absolute shameful.

What are you on about? It was a European Council meeting, of course European values were top of the agenda. Did you expect all the member states to crowd around Micheál and listen to the woes of the Irish for the entirety of the sitting?

Klonker

Cork2021 wrote: »

Very good article and talks sense

https://twitter.com/irishtimesoped/status/1408489092455751687?s=21

Great article. The young are and will continue to bear the brunt of this for years to come. Some of the media were very slow to come around what's happening here. It feels like it's too little too late at this stage unfortunately.

Doctor Jimbob

rusty cole wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1408359420338315264

The last line says it all.

More concerned with European values than Irish peoples constitutional rights and values...He stared off as a teacher and he still has that "now girls and boys" mentality..absolute shameful.

Is that him after travelling again for some meeting that could have been held over zoom?

shockframe

Klonker wrote: »

Great article. The young are and will continue to bear the brunt of this for years to come. Some of the media were very slow to come around what's happening here. It feels like it's too little too late at this stage unfortunately.

Can't be true.

I mean it's not like all these restrictions have any effect on trivial matters like media manipulation, hidden alcohol/drug addictions,bankruptcies, billions and billions of national debt, a place to do business, the social fabric, domestic violence, mental health etc. eh?

snotboogie

Cork2021 wrote: »

Very good article and talks sense

https://twitter.com/irishtimesoped/status/1408489092455751687?s=21

68% of over 65's said that life should not go back to normal after most people are vaccinated!

snotboogie

snotboogie wrote: »

68% of over 65's said that life should not go back to normal after most people are vaccinated!

What do they actually want? To live in a perpetual state of fear?

Great line in there too - “ Have the vaccinated over-60s a right to deprive people in their 20s and 30s of a social life for another summer?”.