Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In the UK right now, have availed of their vaccination programme. So am used to the assumption that pretty much everyone over 40 now is fully vaccinated

So can someone explain to me how the hell only 1 in 4 Irish over 60s are fully vaccinated? Surely that is not true? If it is, it is a level of incompetence by the medical authorities that simply beggars belief. Can someone explain?

1 in 4 in their 60s is what the poster said, not all over 60s. Simple reason, AZ initially a 12 week gap.

Wolf359f

stephenjmcd wrote: »

1 in 4 in their 60s, not all over 60s. Simple reason, AZ initially a 12 week gap.

Reading skills are hard for some people. Or maybe phrasing it as 1 in 4 over 60 are only fully vaccinated sparks more outrage.

But this is our first go around, once time machines are invented, someone in the HSE will go back in time and will change policy for AZ in light of the Delta variant.
Thank **** we didn't go 12 weeks for mRNA as some were screaming for here or trade it for Germany's AZ stock as others wanted!

Maybe someone can work out, if we didn't use AZ on the 60-69 group and went mRNA, what age groups would be called for vaccination now? 45-50?

stephenjmcd

Wolf359f wrote: »

Reading skills are hard for some people. Or maybe phrasing it as 1 in 4 over 60 are only fully vaccinated sparks more outrage.

But this is our first go around, once time machines are invented, someone in the HSE will go back in time and will change policy for AZ in light of the Delta variant.
Thank **** we didn't go 12 weeks for mRNA as some were screaming for here or trade it for Germany's AZ stock as others wanted!

Maybe someone can work out, if we didn't use AZ on the 60-69 group and went mRNA, what age groups would be called for vaccination now? 45-50?

The 12 week gap that some were screaming for would have left us royaly screwed right about now when the pressure would have come on to drop it back to 4 weeks and the supply line not being there for that.

Tenger

Klonker wrote: »

Very quick though to send us out a unsubstantiated tweet that 20% of cases are Delta.

Irish Times podcast about 3 days ago stated that only 30% of overall positive are actually being sequenced for the variant.

20% is still 20%, but considering that the UK is at 95% and we have an open border with them, 20% is “not as bad as it could be”

Sam W

Northern Ireland offers walk-in vaccine services from today. Saw quite a few people on Twitter and Facebook saying they are going over to get a jab there. Has anyone actually done so? Do they still require an HSC/NHS number?

Tenger

peasant wrote: »

..........
2) The low death rate in the UK probably has little to do with the Delta variant being "harmless" but everything with them being way ahead when it comes to vaccinations.


We were sooo damn close when this delta variant showed up on these shores. Another month or two of vaccinations and I'd say we probably would have been fine ...now I'm not so sure anymore, it's going to be a close-run thing.

I have to respectfully disagree.
The UK isnt “way ahead of us”. 2 months ago they were but we are gaining on them each day. They sprinted ahead but then started to slow down in mid April. We are steadily catching up to them in terms of “fully vaccinated”. We would be in a better position if we didn’t have the (seemingly) arbitrary allocation of certain vaccines only for certain groups.

Of course at the moment time is of the essence and thus they are in a better position than us. I agree that the emergence of Delta hits us at a vulnerable point. But it’s not catastrophic.

Wolf359f

Tenger wrote: »

Irish Times podcast about 3 days ago stated that only 30% of overall positive are actually being sequenced for the variant.

20% is still 20%, but considering that the UK is at 95% and we have an open border with them, 20% is “not as bad as it could be”

I think it's closer to 40% that are sequenced.
Using some process and with the Kent variant having or not having a certain gene, they can eliminate 80% of those sequenced as the Kent variant quickly.
So 80% is Kent, meaning 20% is other, so technically 20% could be Delta, in reality it's far less though. It didn't stop the media running with 20% of cases are Delta.

brickster69

Deleted User wrote: »

In the UK right now, have availed of their vaccination programme. So am used to the assumption that pretty much everyone over 40 now is fully vaccinated

So can someone explain to me how the hell only 1 in 4 Irish over 60s are fully vaccinated? Surely that is not true? If it is, it is a level of incompetence by the medical authorities that simply beggars belief. Can someone explain?

Yeah it goes back a while. Firstly 2 vaccines were available but as they were being introduced Germany & France made up a load of bollox about AZ not being effective in older people which Ireland went along with. Despite it being passed as safe for all ages by the EMA.

Then a few other countries joined in and stopped AZ being used for people 55+ 60+ 65+. Later on it was decided that AZ could not be used on younger people and only on older people so everything turned fully 180 degrees.

A few weeks later AZ was deemed to have risks in people under 40 because of reported very rare blood clots.

And now 6 months later AZ can and is being used on all age groups that it was not deemed suitable for. Apart from under 40's which they are wanting to change now.

Wolf359f

brickster69 wrote: »

Yeah it goes back a while. Firstly 2 vaccines were available but as they were being introduced Germany & France made up a load of bollox about AZ not being effective in older people which Ireland went along with. Despite it being passed as safe for all ages by the EMA.

Then a few other countries joined in and stopped AZ being used for people 55+ 60+ 65+. Later on it was decided that AZ could not be used on younger people and only on older people so everything turned fully 180 degrees.

A few weeks later AZ was deemed to have risks in people under 40 because of reported very rare blood clots.

And now 6 months later AZ can and is being used on all age groups that it was not deemed suitable for. Apart from under 40's which they are wanting to change now.

God so much wrong with the post, firstly quoting the OP who has the figures mixed up. 60+ is not the same as 60-69.

Being effective and safe are 2 different things. EMA proved it was safe, however AZ could not show via trials that is was effective in older people.
The data was so lacking, and going only by data, the placebo group in the older age group was as effective as the vaccine was. So under an abundance of caution and the fact other vaccines were available changes were made. (due to the piss poor deliveries of AZ, we could have never vaccinated those most at risk solely with AZ anyway!)

Macron;s quasi ineffective comment reflected the data. Germany's quote was misinterpreted or something, the 8% effective was from 8% of the trial having a certain age group etc... I have no idea why or how the media ran with that.

When the MHRA released efficiency data, countries obviously changed policy. But that should have been in the approval data and not down to the UK acting as guinea pigs.

The rare blood clots went from 1 in a million down to 1 in 66,000. It was the UK press saying it was all political, punishment for Brexit etc..... despite commonwealth countries pausing their AZ rollout and other non-EU countries etc...

AZ is a safe and effective vaccine, same for J&J. However both have a certain risk (as do all vaccines) but we need to weigh up risk vs benefit.
Delta has shifted the balance and as such the same risk vs benefit calculation has to be recalculated.

rob316

It's decided for me anyway I'm going joining the next anti lockdown protest that's on.

Oranage2

Oranage2 wrote: »

I remember last year it was in single digits and we know how that worked out, anyone scared that another lockdown could happen during the winter again?

Yes because we have no vaccines to protect us.

Tyrone212

Avon8 wrote: »

Not a fan either but strongly suspect we'd be in a better place if FG were still in sole charge. The initial stage of the pandemic was decisive action in both directions. The reopen plan started being delayed once the new government was formed and NPHET's unquestioned authority seemed to grow

Decisive..a bit of revisionism going on there. They were reactionary never proactive. Cancelled paddies day parades after mounting public pressure. Pubs stayed open, were closed after videos on twitter showing a packed temple bar and Harris saying how awful it was.

Repeatedly stated they couldn't stop flights as were in the EU. Loads of EU countries closed their airports and land borders. Now I'm not advocating zero covid policy here, but in regards to when the pandemic started,it was abundantly clear what was happening in Italy it was a completely different situation to now. They continued letting people in as normal, this greatly prolonged the first wave. Earlier action would have gotten us out of lockdown sooner and the pubs could have opened as normal last summer. I think Ireland was the only EU country not to open pubs normal last summer. Their 5 level plan didn't reach the final stage until August when they announced it.

The minister for health Simon Harris months in to the pandemic stated on radio that we have to remember there were 18 previous covids and we never managed to make a vaccine for them so we don't know how long it will take. That was the minister of health during a pandemic, thick as shiite.

If FG were really that unhappy about how this pandemic is being handled they could pull the plug on the government and go to the polls. The fact remains they're both as inept as each other and as responsible as one another.

People have short memories if they think Ireland was decisive in action at the start of the pandemic. Maybe how brutally run the UK and USA were at the beginning of it clouds peoples judgment.

Klonker

Tenger wrote: »

Irish Times podcast about 3 days ago stated that only 30% of overall positive are actually being sequenced for the variant.

20% is still 20%, but considering that the UK is at 95% and we have an open border with them, 20% is “not as bad as it could be”

Is the s genome sequencing done on the same number of cases as the whole genome sequencing? I'm just curious as to the sample size. Anyway our sequencing is targeted on where we expect VOCs and VOIs to be for example from international travel and contacts of an expected Delta case. This would skew the sample as its not a random. As you said 20% isn't too bad at this stage not I still don't believe an accurate reflection of our Delta cases.

Real Donald Trump

Cork2021 wrote: »

Who’s this gimp?
No qualifications it seems

https://twitter.com/dminghella/status/1409060780465704964?s=21

Just another ****ing asshole

eagle eye

Jinglejangle69 wrote:

What's your opinion so if you think Leo is only doing it for his image?

He turned NPHET into the bar guys by leaking stuff to the press.
Fact is NPHET don't make decisions. They just advise the government. The government make the decisions. He leaked information to the press because he knew the people were restless and he was about to make an unpopular decision.
So he goes and blames NPHET for it which is wrong.
Anybody blaming NPHET for anything hasn't a clue.

Maxface

eagle eye wrote: »

He turned NPHET into the bar guys by leaking stuff to the press.
Fact is NPHET don't make decisions. They just advise the government. The government make the decisions. He leaked information to the press because he knew the people were restless and he was about to make an unpopular decision.
So he goes and blames NPHET for it which is wrong.
Anybody blaming NPHET for anything hasn't a clue.

NPHET are fond of the odd leak themselves as well.

Working class heroes

eagle eye wrote: »

He turned NPHET into the bar guys by leaking stuff to the press.
Fact is NPHET don't make decisions. They just advise the government. The government make the decisions. He leaked information to the press because he knew the people were restless and he was about to make an unpopular decision.
So he goes and blames NPHET for it which is wrong.
Anybody blaming NPHET for anything hasn't a clue.

The irony.

CruelSummer

Maxface wrote: »

NPHET are fond of the odd leak themselves as well.

And the multiple radio interviews, tweets & general hyping up of Dr Holohan’s worry-meter.
Not to mention whenever Tony is ‘concerned’ ISAG appear across all media platforms with unlimited access making up rubbish re Covid, false statistics & fake news in general.
Who in mainstream media continue to give this group a platform without calling out their fake statistics? Eg 1 in 7 children will get long Covid - it was actually children who ended up hospitalised which were extremely small numbers. They used this statistic to try & keep schools closed.

NPHET have their press conferences & Dr Nolan’s ‘extremely accurate’ modelling which is something I read last week. I assume he himself wrote the article & just as Dr Tony cannot admit when he was wrong - which was multiple times.

Dr Holohan shouldn’t have tweeted ‘concern’ re South William street. He should have introduced antigen testing to help set up events like gigs, people’s attendance at matches. They would be great for indoor dining also.

OwenM

If Micheal Martin does delay the next phase of reopening for 3 weeks, what then? Cases will undoubtedly be higher than they are now, is he going to reopen then? Numbers in hospital/ICU might be slightly higher but the numbers in the UK strongly suggest they won't be substantial, the growth in cases has most definitely not translated into the numbers of ICU and hospital patients that previous waves resulted in.

As of 27th June:
1505 people in hospital with covid from an all time peak of 38.5k
Daily admissions are around 220 from a peak of 3700
The delta variant has been >75% of cases for several weeks
The effect of delta is known and measured in a comparable population

Martin takes ten minutes to decide if he's having cornflakes or rice crispies for breakfast, NPHET is exactly what he wants to follow because he can't be blamed. He's a coward.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

We’ve a culture of absolutely crucifying people for well intentioned mistakes. You see it constantly in commentary here, and in how we deal with all medical issues. It’s always straight to court and sue, sue, sue!

Then we’re furious when ‘abundance of caution’ approaches are taken.

If the government makes a call and there’s a blip, the commentary will absolutely rip them apart.

The reality with this situation is there are unknowns and unknowables. I’m still finding Irish media and discussion seems to think every outcome should be entirely reliably predicted and that a hard, inflexible plan should be put in place, after negotiating with the virus.

This is seat of pants time and we need to be nimble, responsive, adaptive and swift, not terrified of making any mistakes.

ArthurDayne

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

We’ve a culture of absolutely crucifying people for well intentioned mistakes. You see it constantly in commentary here, and in how we deal with all medical issues. It’s always straight to court and sue, sue, sue!

Then we’re furious when ‘abundance of caution’ approaches are taken.

If the government makes a call and there’s a blip, the commentary will absolutely rip them apart.

The reality with this situation is there are unknowns and unknowables. I’m still finding Irish media and discussion seems to think every outcome should be entirely reliably predicted and that a hard, inflexible plan should be put in place, after negotiating with the virus.

This is seat of pants time and we need to be nimble, responsive, adaptive and swift, not terrified of making any mistakes.

But therein lies the very problem — the government has acted like it is terrified of making a call and being torn apart in commentary. As a result, the abundance of caution and the abandonment of any semblance of proportionality.

That is not leadership — it’s blame management.

bloopy

Anyone know what time we can expect the 'leaks' to start coming out from today's meeting?

ClosedAccountFuzzy

That’s what we’re like as a political culture though. It’s a complex, consensus finding system and we’ve a public that will see any misstep as unforgivable.

I’m not advocating some mad Trumpian stuff, but I think we could be a hell of a lot more decisive.

If you look at the situation around antigen tests. We’ve a medical profession that won’t use them in case there’s any inaccuracies.

Ever hear of a medical professional being sued to hell and back for an inaccuracy in a test? Think they might be a bit cautious? Or that might be what’s informing their culture of decision making?

That’s in effect where we are. Rapid decision making and best efforts aren’t good enough. It’s perfection, check, check again, check you’ve checked and have a paper trail showing you did so. Otherwise, don’t move.

Decisions in this aren’t being made by high rolling politicians. They’ve been driven largely by very risk averse medics.

FuzzyThinking

FuzzyThinking wrote: »

We’ve a culture of absolutely crucifying people for well intentioned mistakes. You see it constantly in commentary here, and in how we deal with all medical issues. It’s always straight to court and sue, sue, sue!

Then we’re furious when ‘abundance of caution’ approaches are taken.

If the government makes a call and there’s a blip, the commentary will absolutely rip them apart.

The reality with this situation is there are unknowns and unknowables. I’m still finding Irish media and discussion seems to think every outcome should be entirely reliably predicted and that a hard, inflexible plan should be put in place, after negotiating with the virus.

This is seat of pants time and we need to be nimble, responsive, adaptive and swift, not terrified of making any mistakes.

Thats why we need strong leaders but sadly we don't have any.

Our leaders are terrified so just listen to NPHET. And NPHET don't consider anything other than Covid. They couldn't care less if we bankrupt the place for generations to come.

Whats best for the country is not considered.

xabi

bloopy wrote: »

Anyone know what time we can expect the 'leaks' to start coming out from today's meeting?

During the meeting

Tenger

rob316 wrote: »

It's decided for me anyway I'm going joining the next anti lockdown protest that's on.

Enjoy your walk through the city centre surrounded by Covid deniers, anti-maskers, right wing party members and 'energy healers'.

ClosedAccountFuzzy

Watch what happened when they tried leadership around Xmas though. We had a spike and the response was the media crucified them for slight deviation from the NPHET advice.

They misstepped and the political cost of repeating that is huge.

Look at the surveys done recently. The population is extremely conservative on this stuff and very risk averse.

We’re getting a reflection of ourselves.

I suspect though you’ll see toe in water and baby steps here and then once things brighten the covid era will be forgotten.

Ireland moves very much like that. It’s not a very confrontational kind of place. The public opinion moves as the consensus positions change.

Right now we’re still at “careful now.”

You’re not going to get strong leadership on this, rather it’ll just fizzle back to normality as things start to show more stable positive results.

Renjit

Tenger wrote: »

Enjoy your walk through the city centre surrounded by Covid deniers, anti-maskers, right wing party members and 'energy healers'.

:pac: I have some crystals to sell

duffman13

Paul Moyna from Maynooth University this morning on Pat Kenny was very reasoned with him approach. Basically saying reopen, be agile, use all tools available which aren't currently doing. He was very middle ground and measured. Pity you don't have more like him on the airwaves

brickster69

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

They are the leaders now in cases in Europe yet again

I predicted several months ago on this forum that half arsed vaccinations with AZ will come bite them in rear with new variants.

And here we are

Possibly doing 7 million tests a week and 50% of the worlds genome sequencing might have something to do with that.

Not much chance of finding and isolating if you don't look, even if it is to get a clue what is going on in certain areas.