Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

aziz

Zebra3 wrote: »

Yeah, RIP all the staff dropping like flies working with indoor dining and drinking in hotels.

Those brave brave souls,I salute you

Stheno

Working class heroes wrote: »

Ah well. Fcuk it anyway.

Precisely my thoughts

beaz2018

Is there anybody left here that can defend this absolute nonsense from nphet?

FintanMcluskey

wadacrack wrote: »

“They are predicting an increase in deaths and hospitalisations,” said a senior source. “It is very alarming.”

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-warns-delta-variant-could-infect-thousands-per-day-in-august-leading-to-a-peak-of-deaths-40591171.html

Oh my god

The modelling for the delta variant in Ireland shows shocking rises in the worst-case model, which one informant described as “grim and alarming” and another said would be “like an invasion.”

Fatalities and hospitalisations will approach, but not meet, the chaos and harrowing caseload seen in January, ministers are warned.

Any source for these models I wonder

The vaccine mustn’t work if deaths will approach January levels soon

There was a few of us called conspiracy nuts when we said this would never end in Ireland until the metrics used to implement restrictions were altered

aziz

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, it seems indoor dining will be allowed to all who are fully vaccinated - presumably you'd show your HSE card?

https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1409604121657815045

Well bollox to that
Stay in to protect the vulnerable,they said
And now they are protected,I still have to stay in😡

iamwhoiam

aziz wrote: »

Well bollox to that
Stay in to protect the vulnerable,they said
And now they are protected,I still have to stay in😡

If its any comfort to you this is one ( older ) fully vaccinated person who feels deeply sorry now for young people . They have done their bit and can take no more and this is all wrong .

Micky 32

NPHET obviously think the vaccines don’t work.

Royale with Cheese

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There was a few of us called conspiracy nuts when we said this would never end in Ireland until the metrics used to implement restrictions were altered

It's funny to see the tone in here basically become what the restrictions thread has been since last summer.

I hated Tony and NPHET before it was cool.

stephenjmcd

Micky 32 wrote: »

NPHET obviously think the vaccines don’t work.

The vaccines work, the impact of delta on younger people in their worst case projections is questionable to say the least. Yes hospital numbers would increase, but to the same level or near to as Janaury, nah that's highly unlikely

Avon8

wadacrack wrote: »

“They are predicting an increase in deaths and hospitalisations,” said a senior source. “It is very alarming.”

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-warns-delta-variant-could-infect-thousands-per-day-in-august-leading-to-a-peak-of-deaths-40591171.html

This is so utterly pathetic. Our literal next door neighbours have thousands of cases per day which can accurately inform as to expected hospitalisation and deaths and theirs are relatively flat.

They are treating the government and the public as complete morons

Cork2021

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

It's funny to see the tone in here basically become what the restrictions thread has been since last summer.

I hated Tony and NPHET before it was cool.

I think NPHET are getting their last hooray and government will disband them especially with J&J and AZ approved for 18-40 year olds. It’s over! They just can’t hack it. The peak deaths thing is their psychotic episode before they get ****ed

hmmm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, it seems indoor dining will be allowed to all who are fully vaccinated - presumably you'd show your HSE card?

Great news for those businesses who would be affected. Should have been planned for months ago.

It'll be interesting to see if the "reopen" group support this. I suspect they won't be happy.

I'd estimate we're only a few weeks away from everyone being offered a vaccine, and if J&J becomes available in pharmacies it would be great news.

Multipass

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Oh my god



Any source for these models I wonder

The vaccine mustn’t work if deaths will approach January levels soon

There was a few of us called conspiracy nuts when we said this would never end in Ireland until the metrics used to implement restrictions were altered

My first thought too, they’re saying that the vaccines don’t work!
It would be interesting to know how they have characterised the delta variant in this model, given that the latest data from the uk seems to show that the vaccines work better against it than the older variants. Methinks they have given it superpowers, just out of a sense of caution perhaps.

Stheno

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The vaccines work, the impact of delta on younger people in their worst case projections is questionable to say the least. Yes hospital numbers would increase, but to the same level or near to as Janaury, nah that's highly unlikely

Why are they lying?

They have data from Phe

I'm sick of them

FintanMcluskey

hmmm wrote: »

Great news for those businesses who would be affected. Should have been planned for months ago.

It'll be interesting to see if the "reopen" group support this. I suspect they won't be happy.

I'd estimate we're only a few weeks away from everyone being offered a vaccine, and if J&J becomes available in pharmacies it would be great news.

What are you plucking your estimates from knowing we have 1 million citizens under 15? Or 1.65 million under 25

Is it safe to assume you mean 2 weeks when you reference a few weeks?

funnydoggy

It would be funny if it wasn't so mind boggingly fxcking stupid

aziz

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What are you plucking your estimates from

Out of his hole like the rest of the “experts” in this shambles

FintanMcluskey

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The vaccines work, the impact of delta on younger people in their worst case projections is questionable to say the least. Yes hospital numbers would increase, but to the same level or near to as Janaury, nah that's highly unlikely

No Stephen it’s not questionable, it’s absolutely dishonesty and lies and incredibly irresponsible public health messaging which will diminish the effects of public health messaging in future

What will it take for some to eventually remove the blinkers regarding nPHEt

hmmm

Stheno wrote: »

Why are they lying?

They have data from Phelps

What's Phelps?

Just doing a back of an envelope calculation. In the most recent wave about 1.5% of 15-44 year olds diagnosed with Covid were hospitalised (2.49% for 35-44 year olds) (https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/)

Let's assume we undercounted everything, and there were twice as many cases - that's a 0.75% hospitalisation rate. If we assumed 500,000 cases of Delta in unvaccinated people in that group, in a relatively short period, that's (if I'm right) 3,750 people in hospital.

It's not trivial, I can understand why they might be cautious until they have more information.

eagle eye

CruelSummer wrote:

He should have introduced antigen testing to help set up events like gigs, people’s attendance at matches.

He can't introduce anything, when are people going to understand that. All he can do is advise the government.

beaz2018

hmmm wrote: »

Great news for those businesses who would be affected. Should have been planned for months ago.

It'll be interesting to see if the "reopen" group support this. I suspect they won't be happy.

I'd estimate we're only a few weeks away from everyone being offered a vaccine, and if J&J becomes available in pharmacies it would be great news.

The ‘reopen’ group. Dear lord.

Cork2021

hmmm wrote: »

What's Phelps?

Just doing a back of an envelope calculation. In the most recent wave about 1.5% of 15-44 year olds diagnosed with Covid were hospitalised (2.49% for 35-44 year olds) (https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/)

Let's assume we undercounted everything, and there were twice as many cases - that's a 0.75% hospitalisation rate. If we assumed 500,000 cases of Delta in unvaccinated people in that group, in a relatively short period, that's (if I'm right) 3,750 people in hospital.

It's not trivial, I can understand why they might be cautious until they have more information.

Hmmm seriously this letter is a farce and a power struggle really isn’t it? How can they come to a conclusion that It’ll lead to peak cases and deaths? They’re playing us for fools! You know as well as I do a lot of people watch the numbers daily and see no rise in cases or hospitalisations! They’re playing their last card and getting the most out of it.

beaz2018

hmmm wrote: »

What's Phelps?

Just doing a back of an envelope calculation. In the most recent wave about 1.5% of 15-44 year olds diagnosed with Covid were hospitalised (2.49% for 35-44 year olds) (https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/)

Let's assume we undercounted everything, and there were twice as many cases - that's a 0.75% hospitalisation rate. If we assumed 500,000 cases of Delta in unvaccinated people in that group, in a relatively short period, that's (if I'm right) 3,750 people in hospital.

It's not trivial, I can understand why they might be cautious until they have more information.

You had to bring in 500k cases in a short period of time to make your argument substantial. Jesus this really is weak.

hmmm

beaz2018 wrote: »

You had to bring in 500k cases in a short period of time to make your argument substantial. Jesus this really is weak.

If you want to contribute anything to this thread other than insults please feel free.

How many cases would you estimate based on your knowledge of Delta, and how did you arrive at that number?

Dr. Bre

I’d say the PUP will last forever

beaz2018

hmmm wrote: »

If you want to contribute anything to this thread other than insults please feel free.

How many cases would you estimate based on your knowledge of Delta, and how did you arrive at that number?

How in the name of god did you arrive at 500k?

stephenjmcd

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No Stephen it’s not questionable, it’s absolutely dishonesty and lies and incredibly irresponsible public health messaging which will diminish the effects of public health messaging in future

What will it take for some to eventually remove the blinkers regarding nPHEt

Yes Fintan that's what questionable means in this sense.

hmmm

Cork2021 wrote: »

You know as well as I do a lot of people watch the numbers daily and see no rise in cases or hospitalisations! They’re playing their last card and getting the most out of it.

In fairness, and I agree with you most of the time, you know that the number of hospitalisations today aren't a great indicator for what happens in the future.

The modellers need to figure out how many more extra cases there will be when we relax restrictions, and from that they can figure out what peak hospitalisations will be.

We know that indoor is where the virus likes to spread. They have a new variant which appears more transmissable which will increase spread, we have lots of vaccinations which will reduce the risk, and they have to try and somehow model this.

duffman13

hmmm wrote: »

In fairness, and I agree with you most of the time, you know that the number of hospitalisations today aren't a great indicator for what happens in the future.

The modellers need to figure out how many more extra cases there will be when we relax restrictions, and from that they can figure out what peak hospitalisations will be.

We know that indoor is where the virus likes to spread. They have a new variant which appears more transmissable which will increase spread, we have lots of vaccinations which will reduce the risk, and they have to try and somehow model this.

The modellers can also use Data from PHE to put some projections forward which to be honest aren't very concerning depiste a massively higher prevelance of Delta variant there. This is genuinely a joke decision

Cork2021

hmmm wrote: »

In fairness, and I agree with you most of the time, you know that the number of hospitalisations today aren't a great indicator for what happens in the future.

The modellers need to figure out how many more extra cases there will be when we relax restrictions, and from that they can figure out what peak hospitalisations will be.

We know that indoor is where the virus likes to spread. They have a new variant which appears more transmissable which will increase spread, we have lots of vaccinations which will reduce the risk, and they have to try and somehow model this.

Okay but with the news that we can now administer J&J and AZ to 18-40 that mitigates any substantial risk surely?