Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Multipass

hmmm wrote: »

What's Phelps?

Just doing a back of an envelope calculation. In the most recent wave about 1.5% of 15-44 year olds diagnosed with Covid were hospitalised (2.49% for 35-44 year olds) (https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/)

Let's assume we undercounted everything, and there were twice as many cases - that's a 0.75% hospitalisation rate. If we assumed 500,000 cases of Delta in unvaccinated people in that group, in a relatively short period, that's (if I'm right) 3,750 people in hospital.

It's not trivial, I can understand why they might be cautious until they have more information.

‘Hospitalised’ doesn’t give enough info. The crunch is in the availability of ICU beds, and the numbers of needed by that age group are tiny, if any. Yes it’s sad if someone needs to spend a few hours on oxygen, but it’s not a reason to restrict the country.

hmmm

duffman13 wrote: »

The modellers can also use Data from PHE to put some projections forward which to be honest aren't very concerning depiste a massively higher prevelance of Delta variant there. This is genuinely a joke decision

The latest UK figures (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) have a 70% increase in cases in 7 days, and a 10% increase in numbers being hospitalised. We know also that the hospitalisation figures have a time delay.

I'm not a mathematician, but I wouldn't like to be making any predictions about the UK. Once that curve levels off we'll know more.

Atlantic Dawn

It's time to take to the streets, bloody joke of a country.

They are loving the IT hack because it means they are not reporting Covid deaths deaths of people who were diagnosed with Covid within 30 days of their death, despite the fact that a simple WhatsApp group or centralised email address could record all deaths from each office around the country registering deaths.

CruelSummer

eagle eye wrote: »

He can't introduce anything, when are people going to understand that. All he can do is advise the government.

When are you going to stop defending NPHET? It’s been abundantly clear for the last two weeks that Dr Tony got his colleagues on NPHET and ISAG to launch a fear mongering campaign across all media platforms to hype up his worry meter.
Even many other top Professors do not agree with this approach, the fact that NPHET seem to have aligned themselves with ISAG views says it all to me. Disband immediately.

Their letter is complete and utter fantasy, we can all see the data in the U.K.

The Governments biggest failure was allowing this group to become so powerful in the first place, deferring every decision to them to cover themselves.

It seems both the Government & NPHET are happy for the Irish tax payer, business’s and our society to collapse under their incompetence. The IMF will be here and we will be bankrupt if we allow this situation to continue.

Jinglejangle69

Who is responsible for giving Hoolohan the freedom of the city?

nc6000

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Who is responsible for giving Hoolohan the freedom of the city?

Of course it isn't much use to him with everything closed.

gral6

Not a bother, we can borrow again quarter of a trillion to keep NPHET's team doing their wonderful job!

Cork2021

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Who is responsible for giving Hoolohan the freedom of the city?

Absolutely! Who the fûck gave that prick freedom of the city? Seriously? He fuçking messed up a lot of womens lives with cervical check

duffman13

hmmm wrote: »

The latest UK figures (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) have a 70% increase in cases in 7 days, and a 10% increase in numbers being hospitalised. We know also that the hospitalisation figures have a time delay.

I'm not a mathematician, but I wouldn't like to be making any predictions about the UK. Once that curve levels off we'll know more.

1% of diagnosed cases have ended up in hospital, spread, prevalence etc are 4-5 weeks ahead of us with Delta variant. The equivalent of this in October seen 40k cases with up to 4k hospitalisations.

That's all from your own link. If we use the same data for Ireland they've seen daily case load in crease by a factor of 5 which is worrying. What's not worry is that hospitalisations have only gone from 154 - 227 per day, even with lag that's a tiny increase.

If we use UK data we'd have 1400 cases in 5 weeks with potentially 14 admissions per day two weeks thereafter. Nevermind where we'd be with vaccinations.

Death rate in UK is currently 0.1k per 100k. For a comparison, flu is 1.8 per 100k according to the CDC in America.

I'm not a Covid sceptic, have been vaccinated with AZ as I work in a Health care setting but this is absolutely madness and not based in anyway on scientific evidence. If it is, I look forward to seeing it and having a good read through it.

ShooterSF

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

So, it seems indoor dining will be allowed to all who are fully vaccinated - presumably you'd show your HSE card?

https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1409604121657815045

Said it in the pubs thread but assuming vaccination certs don't have photographs youd need to require ID otherwise whats to stop someone using someone else's cert it'll be like 60 going 18 with bouncers on the door
Can't see it working

Goldengirl

duffman13 wrote: »

Paul Moyna from Maynooth University this morning on Pat Kenny was very reasoned with him approach. Basically saying reopen, be agile, use all tools available which aren't currently doing. He was very middle ground and measured. Pity you don't have more like him on the airwaves

On news this evening also.
Very calm, measured, and totally reasonable .

hmmm

duffman13 wrote: »

Death rate in UK is currently 0.1k per 100k. For a comparison, flu is 1.8 per 100k according to the CDC in America.

I don't think the death rate really matters right now, the concern is hospital capacity as the most immediate problem.

If we use UK data we'd have 1400 cases in 5 weeks with potentially 14 admissions per day two weeks thereafter. Nevermind where we'd be with vaccinations.

I can't work out your maths, interested to know what the calculation was.

On Dec 12 with the previous variant, we had 248 cases. We peaked at over 8,000 in the first week of January. Given this variant spreads faster, you'd expect that peak would be reached even faster and 1400 after 5 weeks sounds low. 8,000 at a low 1% is still 80 a day.

And yeah I understand that vaccinations are having a huge impact on this, and are what will ultimately get us out of this. I'd love to see the raw modelling data we are using, I'm not sure if that is public.

alias no.9

Micky 32 wrote: »

NPHET obviously think the vaccines don’t work.

Their modeling is nonsense, the predictions in April before the start of restrictions easing was peak case numbers to exceed the peak in January despite going from zero vaccinations to most health care workers and most of the vulnerable vaccinated. Since then there has been a massive divergence between cases and hospitalisations and ICU cases but clearly they only adjust the assumptions that make the predictions worse like the estimates of transmission rates but take no account of any mitigating factors.

Numerical models are only as good as the assumptions they're bssed on.

bikeman1

Have I woken up in a parallel universe?

Sam McConkey was on The Tonight show saying we should open up and yet NPHET have issued a 26 page document to the government to keep indoor dining closed indefinitely.

NPHET headed up by the CMO are a disgrace. What is the point of the vaccines if we have to stay shut?

duffman13

hmmm wrote: »

I don't think the death rate really matters right now, the concern is hospital capacity as the most immediate problem.


I can't work out your maths, interested to know what the calculation was.

On Dec 12 with the previous variant, we had 248 cases. We peaked at over 8,000 in the first week of January. Given this variant spreads faster, you'd expect that peak would be reached even faster and 1400 after 5 weeks sounds low. 8,000 at a low 1% is still 80 a day.

And yeah I understand that vaccinations are having a huge impact on this, and are what will ultimately get us out of this. I'd love to see the raw modelling data we are using, I'm not sure if that is public.

I'm using the spread in the UK based over the last 4 weeks to predict spread here given they are ahead of us in both vaccination and Delta spread! Spread here would be relatively similar to the UK if you look at vaccination stats etc.

UKs death rate after 6 weeks of Delta is at its lowest since this began. It may creep up but id be confident it'll never get near its previous numbers.

You cannot use our growth data from December in order to model because a) 4 million vaccines have been done since b) its a completely different climate from 6 or 7 months ago.

Klonker

wadacrack wrote: »

“They are predicting an increase in deaths and hospitalisations,” said a senior source. “It is very alarming.”

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-warns-delta-variant-could-infect-thousands-per-day-in-august-leading-to-a-peak-of-deaths-40591171.html

Absolutely disgraceful stuff from NPHET. Does anywhere here actually believe these projections? NPHET don't even believe them. They are over projecting what they really believe so government will have no choice but to go with it.

And people still think Tony only advises. People are only deluding themselves if they can't see this yet.

stephenjmcd

duffman13 wrote: »

I'm using the spread in the UK based over the last 4 weeks to predict spread here given they are ahead of us in both vaccination and Delta spread! Spread here would be relatively similar to the UK if you look at vaccination stats etc.

UKs death rate after 6 weeks of Delta is at its lowest since this began. It may creep up but id be confident it'll never get near its previous numbers.

You cannot use our growth data from December in order to model because a) 4 million vaccines have been done since b) its a completely different climate from 6 or 7 months ago.

2170 deaths according to Daniel McConnell across August & September. Would absolutely love to know where they've managed to model that from

bikeman1

stephenjmcd wrote: »

2170 deaths according to Daniel McConnell across August & September. Would absolutely love to know where they've managed to model that from

I think their modelling computer has been hacked or someone missed a decimal point.

Atlantic Dawn

So am I correct in saying I will be able to fly over to Ibiza next week, mix with all sorts, drink indoors and go to niteclubs but I won't be able to have a pint and Sunday lunch in my local pub?

Cork2021

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

So am I correct in saying I will be able to fly over to Ibiza next week, mix with all sorts, drink indoors and go to niteclubs but I won't be able to have a pint and Sunday lunch in my local pub?

Oh yes baby!!!!

alias no.9

hmmm wrote: »

What's Phelps?

Just doing a back of an envelope calculation. In the most recent wave about 1.5% of 15-44 year olds diagnosed with Covid were hospitalised (2.49% for 35-44 year olds) (https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/)

Let's assume we undercounted everything, and there were twice as many cases - that's a 0.75% hospitalisation rate. If we assumed 500,000 cases of Delta in unvaccinated people in that group, in a relatively short period, that's (if I'm right) 3,750 people in hospital.

It's not trivial, I can understand why they might be cautious until they have more information.

I really hope this is some kind of pisstake. You make an assumption that delta is going to cause us to have just a shade under twice as many cases amongst our ever decreasing cohort of unvaccinated people than we have had in our entire population over 18 months including almost 12 months with zero vaccine and several months last summer with less restrictions than we have now... It's bat****... Are you Philip Nolan by any chance?

Klonker

stephenjmcd wrote: »

2170 deaths according to Daniel McConnell across August & September. Would absolutely love to know where they've managed to model that from

Be interesting too what they think the deaths will be if we don't open indoor dining. They must surely think it'll be in the hundreds so.

MerlinSouthDub

bikeman1 wrote: »

I think their modelling computer has been hacked or someone missed a decimal point.

You know, the decimal point thing is entirely possible.

Klonker

That's the green cert gone too so. I knew Tony wouldn't allow that to happen.

Cork2021

Klonker wrote: »

Be interesting too what they think the deaths will be if we don't open indoor dining. They must surely think it'll be in the hundreds so.

And where will the hundred be from?

Some unlucky Fecker who has a heart attack but was asymptomatic with covid?

jammiedodgers

I'm really struggling to see how they came up with 2170 deaths even as a doomsday worst case scenario.
Had a quick look on cso.ie, I can see approximately 1600 reported deaths for January & Febraury this year. Even accounting for a lag in reporting of deaths this makes no sense to me?

funnydoggy

jammiedodgers wrote: »

I'm really struggling to see how they came up with 2170 deaths even as a doomsday worst case scenario.
Had a quick look on cso.ie, I can see approximately 1600 reported deaths for January & Febraury this year. Even accounting for a lag in reporting of deaths this makes no sense to me?

There will be 2170 deaths between August and September alright, but not from COVID.

Madness. NPHET should be disbanded ASAP.

Widdensushi

jammiedodgers wrote: »

I'm really struggling to see how they came up with 2170 deaths even as a doomsday worst case scenario.
Had a quick look on cso.ie, I can see approximately 1600 reported deaths for January & Febraury this year. Even accounting for a lag in reporting of deaths this makes no sense to me?

There will be tribunals into this rubbish in the future

jam_mac_jam

How are they predicting death rates like that when the UK with a much higher population doesn't have that. I will have to have a look at the UK again but I thought their deaths were still low.

Vicxas

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

How are they predicting death rates like that when the UK with a much higher population doesn't have that. I will have to have a look at the UK again but I thought their deaths were still low.

They are. They had a very good video from sky news showing that the correlation between deaths and cases had been broken