Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

duffman13

Vicxas wrote: »

They are. They had a very good video from sky news showing that the correlation between deaths and cases had been broken

Because the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, its madness. 28 pages, it should be published or a FOI request sent in

RGS

stephenjmcd wrote: »

2170 deaths according to Daniel McConnell across August & September. Would absolutely love to know where they've managed to model that from[/QUOTE

Since the pandemic started ireland suffered around 5000 deaths.
NPHET new modelling as per the letter to government states we will have over 2 thousand deaths in 2 months.(August & september)
This with many of the population vaccinated and a large proportion with at least one jab and vaccines proceeding at pace.

This modelling has to be incorrect or it confirms the vaccines dont work.

Some journalist needs to ask the hard questions at the briefings this week . We need a Vincent Browne type journo now.

Klonker

Is there data available from the UK of who's actually dieing from covid. I thought I read somewhere is was unvaccinated elderly peoole mostly. Nearly everyone in Ireland over 70 is fully vaccinated. And it isn't even that bad in the UK, they're planning on lifting all restrictions!

CMO advises, CMO gets what he wants. Nothing to see here.

Starting to believe a lot of this is whitewashing by (Saint) Dr Tony. More and more people publicly have been questioning his role in the scandal we are bizarrely not aloud to mention here. Being the Covid hero redeems his reputation. Nothing to see here.

thebaz

RGS wrote: »

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Some journalist needs to ask the hard questions at the briefings this week . We need a Vincent Browne type journo now.

Hopefully some credible jouralist calls out this modelling - extend lockdown if ther is a need , but stop feeding us nonsense , this modelling does not add up , reminds me of Professor Ferguson doomsday predictions , that never happened , and then he was breaking the very rules he was suggesting.

Patrick2010

Have I got this right, Tony and NPHET are basically saying vaccines don’t work and we have to stay closed indefinitely?

Beanybabog

Where can I see the models and the letter?

thebaz

Patrick2010 wrote: »

Have I got this right, Tony and NPHET are basically saying vaccines don’t work and we have to stay closed indefinitely?

Vaccines do work , that is what is so extroudinary about ther projections.

giveitholly

Lost for words I am at this stage,what's the point anymore

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

CMO advises, CMO gets what he wants. Nothing to see here.

Starting to believe a lot of this is whitewashing by (Saint) Dr Tony. More and more people publicly have been questioning his role in the scandal we are bizarrely not aloud to mention here. Being the Covid hero redeems his reputation. Nothing to see here.

I believe hes been emboldened by the unquestioning support of so many of the public, blindly following . The ones who slagged off the rest of us for asking questions, the ones who told us to suck it up.

See a lot of them turning now though.

alias no.9

stephenjmcd wrote: »

2170 deaths according to Daniel McConnell across August & September. Would absolutely love to know where they've managed to model that from

For context, there's been less than 5000 deaths attributed to covid to date in total, this is bat****.

For more context, the epicentre of Delta, India peaked at a 4200 daily deaths amongst a population of 1.366 billion, we know there was under reporting but we also know cases peak and fall off quickly. Applying the maximum 4200 deaths for 61 days in August and September more than makes up for under reporting, adjusting for the population still only leaves us with an estimate of about 930 deaths in a two month period. Why the **** do NPHET models predict our heavily vaccinated population will fare worse from Delta than unvaccinated overcrowded India?

Are they trolling the government to see how far they can push before meeting any resistance?

VG31

[Deleted User] wrote: »

CMO advises, CMO gets what he wants. Nothing to see here.

Starting to believe a lot of this is whitewashing by (Saint) Dr Tony. More and more people publicly have been questioning his role in the scandal we are bizarrely not aloud to mention here. Being the Covid hero redeems his reputation. Nothing to see here.

He might have actually been able to come out of this at least partly redeemed had he not completely lost the plot.

Messi19

This could well be the straw that breaks the government's back

AdamD

wadacrack wrote: »

Would be irrational to open indoor dining at this stage for a number of reasons.

Healthcare system not functioning properly due to a cypher attack.
2 Dose vaccinations in the 60-70 age not at a high enough percentage.
Europeans countries are likely to bring in retrictions soo, its expected .
Acting quickly now will make living with this new variant more sustainable in the future.

Are you suggesting restaurants remain shut because the HSE had a cyber attack? Is this a parallel universe?

hmmm wrote: »

What's Phelps?

Just doing a back of an envelope calculation. In the most recent wave about 1.5% of 15-44 year olds diagnosed with Covid were hospitalised (2.49% for 35-44 year olds) (https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/)

Let's assume we undercounted everything, and there were twice as many cases - that's a 0.75% hospitalisation rate. If we assumed 500,000 cases of Delta in unvaccinated people in that group, in a relatively short period, that's (if I'm right) 3,750 people in hospital.

It's not trivial, I can understand why they might be cautious until they have more information.

Ireland has had 270,000 covid cases in 16 months. With 2 thirds of adults vaccinated you're assuming we're going to have 500,000 new cases in a couple of months?

That is genuinely off the walls. No other way to put it.

duffman13

The more I look at UK data for cases and deaths over the last few weeks, the more I'm stunned by this. The vaccines work, we are motoring through them and the most vulnerable bar 60+ 2nd doses are protected. If they had of said a week or two, I "might" have accepted the logic but this absolute garbage. A lot of people pissed by this. Staycations will be out the window too.

gral6

So, no indoor dining for the foreseeable future. Some indoor dining will be allowed for fully vaccinated from 19th July

Looking increasingly like I’ll be postponing my return to Ireland until toward the end of the year, if not next. Pity...:I was looking forward to getting back home.

It’s a joke shop at this stage

Turtwig

We haven't seen any modelling data yet. Likely won't for another full week. If the modelling consortium reported to NPHET's a pessimistic outcome then the underlying conditions they used need to be known. Last time they assumed vaccine efficacy of 85% I wonder if they modified it.

Also PHE latest report was only published on Friday. I doubt this would have been included. However PHE did not alter anything greatly in the latest report. The increased transmission was refined to 40% but this was within the range of their original estimates so the modeling will likely have taken all ranges.

Biggest problem I have is the politicians will be answering the questions. The modelling group need to be imo. Given the importance and the implications.

I don't envy them. Such a tough task. Be really interesting to see how susceptibility of the unvaccinated is estimated. Really looking forward to the reports.

Necro

duffman13 wrote: »

The more I look at UK data for cases and deaths over the last few weeks, the more I'm stunned by this. The vaccines work, we are motoring through them and the most vulnerable bar 60+ 2nd doses are protected. If they had of said a week or two, I "might" have accepted the logic but this absolute garbage. A lot of people pissed by this. Staycations will be out the window too.

On top of that, I don't know if that modelling including the ridiculous amount of deaths for August and September actually takes into account the increasing likelihood (with new NIAC recommendations) we're going to be close to 80% with one dose by end of July and probably well over 50% fully vaxxed

It's just nuts. Plain nuts. Any government blindly accepting that rubbish should be collapsed tbh, and I don't say that lightly.

Atlantic Dawn

gral6 wrote: »

So, no indoor dining for the foreseeable future. Some indoor dining will be allowed for fully vaccinated from 19th July

The proper approach would have been for them to say indoor dining open for the fully vaccinated and left it at that with zero checks required, leave it up to the public to decide on the risk factor.

hmmm

AdamD wrote: »

Ireland has had 270,000 covid cases in 16 months. With 2 thirds of adults vaccinated you're assuming we're going to have 500,000 new cases in a couple of months?

That is genuinely off the walls. No other way to put it.

It's not really. Firstly we know that 270,000 is an underestimate. We had 8,000 cases at peak in January, if that continued over 30 days it'd be 240,000, and that doesn't take into account continued exponential growth. The vaccines given to the "vulnerable" are great for reducing deaths, but would have less impact on spread I think as many of that group would have been taking precautions to avoid getting infected. The reason our cases were suppressed were because of lockdown, and no-one wants that to have to happen again.

I can't find the NPHET paper we're talking about, but the report in the media seems to suggest 700,000 cases as their top end estimate.

The thread sounds like January at the moment with people going off the deep end and claiming its the end of the world. It's going to mean a delay of a few weeks while we get nearly a million extra people vaccinated, hopefully they find a way to open things for vaccinated people in the meantime, and then we're out of this.

ixoy

So I presume NPHET believes that mainland Europe will be a giant morgue given they're further ahead opening? Do they have different models that nobody else in Europe developed or something?

Economics101

NPHET's worst case scenario over 3 months is 2,170 deaths , and the best case is 165. For case numbers the range is from 700,000 to 81,000. If their "models" give such a wide range of outcomes they are worthless: it would be more honest to say "we don't know".

Can you imagine if the typical Met Eireann forecast was that tomorrow's maximum temperature will be between 5c and 30c, and rainfall somewhere 0 and 500mm, do you think anyone would ever pay a blind bit of attention to weather forecasts?

There is too much belief in the infallibility of medics. I would trust them when it comes to treating my illness, but when it comes to statistical modelling I would give more credence to the hospital janitor.

cefh17

hmmm wrote: »

It's going to mean a delay of a few weeks while we get nearly a million extra people vaccinated, hopefully they find a way to open things for vaccinated people, and then we're out of this.

Let me guess, the next 2 weeks are crucial?

alias no.9

Turtwig wrote: »

We haven't seen any modelling data yet. Likely won't for another full week. If the modelling consortium reported to NPHET's a pessimistic outcome then the underlying conditions they used need to be known. Last time they assumed vaccine efficacy of 85% I wonder if they modified it.

Also PHE latest report was only published on Friday. I doubt this would have been included. However PHE did not alter anything greatly in the latest report. The increased transmission was refined to 40% but this was within the range of their original estimates so the modeling will likely have taken all ranges.

Biggest problem I have is the politicians will be answering the questions. The modelling group need to be imo. Given the importance and the implications.

I don't envy them. Such a tough task. Be really interesting to see how susceptibility of the unvaccinated is estimated. Really looking forward to the reports.

I'm going to quote my own post here but in what universe do we suffer a sustained death rate that would see us have more than twice the mortality rate of India from the delta variant, even allowing for massive under reporting in India, these loons can't even do a sanity check on their predictions

alias no.9 wrote: »

For context, there's been less than 5000 deaths attributed to covid to date in total, this is bat****.

For more context, the epicentre of Delta, India peaked at a 4200 daily deaths amongst a population of 1.366 billion, we know there was under reporting but we also know cases peak and fall off quickly. Applying the maximum 4200 deaths for 61 days in August and September more than makes up for under reporting, adjusting for the population still only leaves us with an estimate of about 930 deaths in a two month period. Why the **** do NPHET models predict our heavily vaccinated population will fare worse from Delta than unvaccinated overcrowded India?

Are they trolling the government to see how far they can push before meeting any resistance?

Turtwig

Back in January peak only symptomatic people were mainly tested. There was limited serial testing and perhaps the odd exception of some GPS referring people without symptoms for tests. Case counts, as evidenced by high positivity rates, were significant undercounts.

Widdensushi

Turtwig wrote: »

Back in January peak only symptomatic people were mainly tested. There was limited serial testing and perhaps the odd exception of some GPS referring people without symptoms for tests. Case counts, as evidenced by high positivity rates, were significant undercounts.

So hospitalisation and deaths are much lower as a percentage of cases, you can't have it both ways.

hmmm

Widdensushi wrote: »

So hospitalisation and deaths are much lower as a percentage of cases, you can't have it both ways.

Yes. But a small percentage of a big figure is still a problem for our hospitals, and we have a lot of people who are unvaccinated right now.

duffman13

hmmm wrote: »

It's not really. Firstly we know that 270,000 is an underestimate. We had 8,000 cases at peak in January, if that continued over 30 days it'd be 240,000, and that doesn't take into account continued exponential growth. The vaccines given to the "vulnerable" are great for reducing deaths, but would have less impact on spread I think as many of that group would have been taking precautions to avoid getting infected. The reason our cases were suppressed were because of lockdown, and no-one wants that to have to happen again.

I can't find the NPHET paper we're talking about, but the report in the media seems to suggest 700,000 cases as their top end estimate.

The thread sounds like January at the moment with people going off the deep end and claiming its the end of the world. It's going to mean a delay of a few weeks while we get nearly a million extra people vaccinated, hopefully they find a way to open things for vaccinated people in the meantime, and then we're out of this.

Ah stop will you. If you want to call 270k an underestimate then grand but more people have a natural immunity than we thought, that's good news, not bad

8,000 cases a day wasn't sustained and won't be anywhere near that given a) vaccination numbers and b)natural immunity

At the time of the HSE attack 18% or so of the 18-44 category had covid and therefore some form of immunity

You are also neglecting the people who are likely to contract it are not at risk and are going to be slightly more vaccine hesitant. As for it sounding like January, it's literally nothing, and I mean nothing like January

CruelSummer

Will be interesting to see if any politician grows a backbone in the coming 24 hours. All three of these Government parties are toast if they don’t. I don’t care if they are. What I do care about is the Irish people & our country’s future.

- Staycations will take a big hit with no indoor dining.
- Many restaurants & pubs will go out of business.
- Aer Lingus will go bust if they change the EU Covid Cert roll out.
- Thousands of aviation, tourism & travel sector jobs will be lost due to this.
- Ireland is approaching quarter of a TRILLION in debt assuming none of this was going to happen & reopening would continue on July 5th. We cannot afford further payment supports for all of the above sectors on top of everything else.
- Vaccination only indoors seeks to aid ISAG aims of divide and conquer society. Their new spokespeople tonight seem to be NPHET.

Finally, the implications of what NPHET ‘modelled’ tonight are enormous - the people who created this piece of science fiction to try & destroy our society and country need to be fired & investigated.

It is essentially stating vaccines don’t work, Ireland will never reopen & as long as Covid exists we will be living under the rule of unelected NPHET / ISAG nut cases.

Anyone up for forming a new centre left / right party with some brain cells and a back bone??