Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Turtwig

alias no.9 wrote: »

I'm going to quote my own post here but in what universe do we suffer a sustained death rate that would see us have more than twice the mortality rate of India from the delta variant, even allowing for massive under reporting in India, these loons can't even do a sanity check on their predictions

Probably none. This is why leaks are useless. You need to know what the purpose of the model used to arrive at that was. Often times by tweaking a few parameters you can get ridiculous results but you can still learn a lot from the underlying behaviour. Or it's a complete dud.
I'm not saying they're ridiculous. Need to see what they publish. Which unfortunately will probably be next week. I don't know why there's such a delay but unfortunately that's the way it's been all pandemic.

Side note: India death count is likely off by at least one factor of ten.

Why are they loons? You and me don't know how the models were constructed . It might be loony, it might not be. I find it scary though that people criticise something without knowing what they're criticising. It's like criticising a film without having watched it.

Atlantic Dawn

HSE should be encouraging people to present at hospitals now for non Covid related illnesses to get best useage of our health system.

FintanMcluskey

Necro wrote: »

It's just nuts. Plain nuts. Any government blindly accepting that rubbish should be collapsed tbh, and I don't say that lightly.

And to be fair on the other hand, a medical professional in a position of authority in public health guidance should be immediately removed from their position for such gross incompetence

AdamD

Turtwig wrote: »

Probably none. This is why leaks are useless. You need to know what the purpose of the model used to arrive at that was. Often times by tweaking a few parameters you can get ridiculous results but you can still learn a lot from the underlying behaviour. Or it's a complete dud.
I'm not saying they're ridiculous. Need to see what they publish. Which unfortunately will probably be next week. I don't know why there's such a delay but unfortunately that's the way it's been all pandemic.

Side note: India death count is likely off by at least one factor of ten.

Why are they loons? You and me don't know how the models were constructed . It might be loony, it might not be. I find it scary though that people criticise something without knowing what they're criticising. It's like criticising a film without having watched it.

The result of the model is loopy, I'm not sure we need to know what loopy input got them to this point in order to judge it.

hmmm

duffman13 wrote: »

Ah stop will you. If you want to call 270k an underestimate then grand but more people have a natural immunity than we thought, that's good news, not bad

8,000 cases a day wasn't sustained and won't be anywhere near that given a) vaccination numbers and b)natural immunity

8,000 was not sustained because we had instituted restrictions a week and a half before. You're rewriting history here. None of us want another lockdown, and we'd look stupid having to do it if a delay of a few weeks will allow us to reopen safely for good.

You are also neglecting the people who are likely to contract it are not at risk and are going to be slightly more vaccine hesitant. As for it sounding like January, it's literally nothing, and I mean nothing like January

You keep saying that yet you've offered nothing (other than vague handwaving about why you think it is different). The "most vulnerable" have received their vaccines, but they weren't the ones visiting the pubs and restaurants in December.

Even those over 18 you claim to be "not at risk" had somewhere between a 1 and 2% chance of being hospitalised during the December/January wave - again assuming we undercounted cases by 100%, that is still a hefty number of potential hospitalisations if numbers spiraled.

The only way out of this is large-scale vaccinations, and we are well on our way to achieving this.

bucketybuck

hmmm wrote: »

The thread sounds like January at the moment with people going off the deep end and claiming its the end of the world. It's going to mean a delay of a few weeks while we get nearly a million extra people vaccinated, hopefully they find a way to open things for vaccinated people in the meantime, and then we're out of this.

Well at least certain people are finally admitting that there is even an issue, instead of rolling their eyes and telling those concerned about further delays in reopening that they are imagining things.

I am curious though, if the cases have been as badly underestimated as you seem to be claiming, doesn't that also mean hundreds of thousands more people who have already had covid and so are at less risk today? Hundreds of thousands that can be added to the millions vaccinated yet you are talking about half a million cases in just the next few months?

Turtwig

Widdensushi wrote: »

So hospitalisation and deaths are much lower as a percentage of cases, you can't have it both ways.

That's where this dilemma lies. How likely is a individual in the population to get hospitalised and how many of these individuals are there for the various graduations of population risk groups.

It is important to emphasise this isn't individual level risk. It's population based.

ixoy

Do no other European countries do such modelling? Have an of those come to these mad projections? It's not as if Ireland is way behind on vaccination so surely other models are predicting these scenarios right?!

alias no.9

hmmm wrote: »

Yes. But a small percentage of a big figure is still a problem for our hospitals, and we have a lot of people who are unvaccinated right now.

Seriously, a sanity check of your numbers shows them to be nonsense. You predict our unvaccinated population to have almost twice as many future cases as a result of delta as our entire population have had of all variants over 18 months, just stop, its nonsense.

MerlinSouthDub

I would just note that there are no leaks so far of what the cabinet sub committee has decided - they are still meeting. I don't envy their job, but I go to sleep in the hope they will come up some kind of compromise. To me, that's delay for 2 to 3 weeks, and open properly then.

namloc1980

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I would just note that there are no leaks so far of what the cabinet sub committee has decided - they are still meeting. I don't envy their job, but I go to sleep in the hope they will come up some kind of compromise. To me, that's delay for 2 to 3 weeks, and open properly then.

That's not really a compromise. That's agreeing with NPHET and then looking at it again in a few weeks.

stephenjmcd

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I would just note that there are no leaks so far of what the cabinet sub committee has decided - they are still meeting. I don't envy their job, but I go to sleep in the hope they will come up some kind of compromise. To me, that's delay for 2 to 3 weeks, and open properly then.

Was thinking the same myself, usually alot more out by now. Would have to imagine there's some sort of push back

hmmm

alias no.9 wrote: »

Seriously, a sanity check of your numbers shows them to be nonsense. You predict our unvaccinated population to have almost twice as many future cases as a result of delta as our entire population have had of all variants over 18 months, just stop, its nonsense.

If you're happy to go back into lockdown for a few months if cases explode it's nonsense yes. I'm not, we had to put up with this "ignore NPHET and reopen!" bull**** in December and it cost us a fortune as a consequence.

We had 8,000 cases at peak in January, having risen from 200 cases in December. A virus isn't going to "level out" by itself until it infects everyone it can find who is susceptible. If we had not imposed restrictions in January we'd have easily hit several hundred thousand additional cases.

Scuid Mhór

It's so strange seeing all of the boards covid regulars posting tonight with a mostly shared incredulity. It's like the country is no longer unified by a shared reality anymore.

duffman13

hmmm wrote: »

8,000 was not sustained because we had instituted restrictions a week and a half before. You're rewriting history here. None of us want another lockdown, and we'd look stupid having to do it if a delay of a few weeks will allow us to reopen safely for good.


You keep saying that yet you've offered nothing (other than vague handwaving about why you think it is different). The "most vulnerable" have received their vaccines, but they weren't the ones visiting the pubs and restaurants in December.

Even those over 18 you claim to be "not at risk" had somewhere between a 1 and 2% chance of being hospitalised during the December/January wave - again assuming we undercounted cases by 100%, that is still a hefty number of potential hospitalisations.

The only way out of this is large-scale vaccinations, and we are well on our way to achieving this.

Someone said it yesterday, let's stay in lockdown to avoid another lockdown, that's where its gone. I've given you facts based on NPHET published data and you said in your previous post case load is likely higher so if anything we've a much larger pool of people with natural immunity.

Your bit about the pubs December is nonsense. When I went to the pub there was people of all ages there. Spread was predominantly from household interactions over Christmas and New year which lead to our largest spike. Dr Holohan said as much in one of the NPHET briefings in late Jan/early Feb.

People will get the virus who are and are not vaccinated, the vast vast majority of them will have a positive outcome. The hospitalisation rate is around 1% currently in the UK. If over 3 months we do hit that 700k figure then that 7,000 hospitalistions. Sounds awful but most of them will have a shorter hospital stay according to public health England.

My main issue is the 700k figure is a nonsense. A range if 81k cases to 700k cases is a joke. Why are we measuring this thing anymore on case numbers is an absolute mystery. Hospitalisations are the concern, you can roughly predict them on cases but the hospitalisation rate is coming down all the time and NPHET seem to be ignoring that piece

alias no.9

Turtwig wrote: »

Probably none. This is why leaks are useless. You need to know what the purpose of the model used to arrive at that was. Often times by tweaking a few parameters you can get ridiculous results but you can still learn a lot from the underlying behaviour. Or it's a complete dud.
I'm not saying they're ridiculous. Need to see what they publish. Which unfortunately will probably be next week. I don't know why there's such a delay but unfortunately that's the way it's been all pandemic.

Side note: India death count is likely off by at least one factor of ten.

Why are they loons? You and me don't know how the models were constructed . It might be loony, it might not be. I find it scary though that people criticise something without knowing what they're criticising. It's like criticising a film without having watched it.

The purpose of the model was to scare politicians. Any scenario that predicts a much worse outcome for a Ireland at its current stage of vaccination than India with little vaccination and massive overcrowding should never reach publication. India is what uncontrolled spread of delta looks like, it is worst case. My rudimentary calculations applied its worst case reported for a sustained 61 days, it accounts for under reporting.

FintanMcluskey

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

To me, that's delay for 2 to 3 weeks, and open properly then.

Are you joking saying this?

It’s a phrase repeated for 15 months now.

That time scale brings us within 3 weeks of schools opening, what sense would it make to reopen then using the metrics currently used to delay reopening

giveitholly

hmmm wrote: »

If you're happy to go back into lockdown for a few months if cases explode it's nonsense yes. I'm not, we had to put up with this "ignore NPHET and reopen!" bull**** in December and it cost us a fortune as a consequence.

We had 8,000 cases at peak in January, having risen from 200 cases in December. A virus isn't going to "level out" by itself until it infects everyone it can find who is susceptible. If we had not imposed restrictions in January we'd have easily hit several hundred thousand additional cases.

Why didn't this happen in India so? Cases have plummeted over there

bucketybuck

alias no.9 wrote: »

Seriously, a sanity check of your numbers shows them to be nonsense. You predict our unvaccinated population to have almost twice as many future cases as a result of delta as our entire population have had of all variants over 18 months, just stop, its nonsense.

The scary part is that unelected advisors will be giving similar nonsense to our government and history has shown that our weak government will be listening to it.

ruth123456

Is there any mention of indoor gym classes?

Goldengirl

alias no.9 wrote: »

I really hope this is some kind of pisstake. You make an assumption that delta is going to cause us to have just a shade under twice as many cases amongst our ever decreasing cohort of unvaccinated people than we have had in our entire population over 18 months including almost 12 months with zero vaccine and several months last summer with less restrictions than we have now... It's bat****... Are you Philip Nolan by any chance?

In fairness to hmmm , hospitalisation for Delta has been reported widely in UK to be twice the incidence of the Alpha variant .
As others who regularly post here , I don't know where they are modelling the deaths from and am sceptical of that large an increase so soon and with that severity as we are very cautiously opening anything unlike the situation in the UK.

So unless you guys have any other solid information, maybe stow the abuse on posters trying to rationalise or debate .
It doesn't mean these posters are agents of the NPHET .

JRant

hmmm wrote: »

It's not really. Firstly we know that 270,000 is an underestimate. We had 8,000 cases at peak in January, if that continued over 30 days it'd be 240,000, and that doesn't take into account continued exponential growth. The vaccines given to the "vulnerable" are great for reducing deaths, but would have less impact on spread I think as many of that group would have been taking precautions to avoid getting infected. The reason our cases were suppressed were because of lockdown, and no-one wants that to have to happen again.

I can't find the NPHET paper we're talking about, but the report in the media seems to suggest 700,000 cases as their top end estimate.

The thread sounds like January at the moment with people going off the deep end and claiming its the end of the world. It's going to mean a delay of a few weeks while we get nearly a million extra people vaccinated, hopefully they find a way to open things for vaccinated people in the meantime, and then we're out of this.

If it's only going to take a few weeks to have all those ecmxtra vaccines administered then why bother delaying at all? One week until they were due to open indoor, plus the 2 extra weeks to vaccinate everyone according to your prediction. Where's the risk and why delay? I mean, it's only a few extra weeks.

As someone with a single dose and soon to hopefully have a second I hope they don't listen to that advice. Unless it's vaccine, recently recovered, or negative rapid test provided free by the government then in no way should it be entertained.

marno21

This thread is giving me a headache.

We’ve steadily opened up since April and there has been no increase in cases. Cases in vaccinated people have collapsed, there is a handful of people in hospital and the level of risk involved here is much much lower than before.

We’re now seriously considering destroying large swathes of the Irish economy because models, which have been thoroughly disproven in recent months, show a potential surge which hasn’t happened in several other countries with similar profiles of vaccination and have undergone similar reopenings over recent months.

This country is on a knife edge. A government terrified of making adult decisions deferring decisions which have life changing consequences over to a single issue motley crew of medics. It’s genuinely bizarre how ok the population is with what’s going on.

hmmm

ixoy wrote: »

Do no other European countries do such modelling? Have an of those come to these mad projections? It's not as if Ireland is way behind on vaccination so surely other models are predicting these scenarios right?!

ECDC modelling is here (page 8 onwards):
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Implications-for-the-EU-EEA-on-the-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-Delta-VOC-23-June-2021.pdf

alias no.9

hmmm wrote: »

If you're happy to go back into lockdown for a few months if cases explode it's nonsense yes. I'm not, we had to put up with this "ignore NPHET and reopen!" bull**** in December and it cost us a fortune as a consequence.

We had 8,000 cases at peak in January, having risen from 200 cases in December. A virus isn't going to "level out" by itself until it infects everyone it can find who is susceptible. If we had not imposed restrictions in January we'd have easily hit several hundred thousand additional cases.

Your numbers are nonsense. Look at a chart for cases in any country, peaks last a couple of days and fall off just as quickly as the rise.

funnydoggy

marno21 wrote: »

.

This country is on a knife edge. A government terrified of making adult decisions deferring decisions which have life changing consequences over to a single issue motley crew of medics. It’s genuinely bizarre how ok the population is with what’s going on.

Even reddit.com/r/ireland is starting to turn. That's when you know **** has hit the fan.

JRant

Turtwig wrote: »

Probably none. This is why leaks are useless. You need to know what the purpose of the model used to arrive at that was. Often times by tweaking a few parameters you can get ridiculous results but you can still learn a lot from the underlying behaviour. Or it's a complete dud.
I'm not saying they're ridiculous. Need to see what they publish. Which unfortunately will probably be next week. I don't know why there's such a delay but unfortunately that's the way it's been all pandemic.

Side note: India death count is likely off by at least one factor of ten.

Why are they loons? You and me don't know how the models were constructed . It might be loony, it might not be. I find it scary though that people criticise something without knowing what they're criticising. It's like criticising a film without having watched it.

When you are trying to model a multivariable system and guessing every single parameter going in then it's highly likely you'll get garbage out. It's just not a serious position to take, that a model like the one's we've seen to date, are in any way credible.

hmmm

JRant wrote: »

If it's only going to take a few weeks to have all those ecmxtra vaccines administered then why bother delaying at all? One week until they were due to open indoor, plus the 2 extra weeks to vaccinate everyone according to your prediction. Where's the risk and why delay? I mean, it's only a few extra weeks.

We'd have to look at the modelling assumptions to figure that out I'd say. We're doing 50,000 vaccines a day, it's a huge number. Despite what was said above I don't see what has changed about the inside of a pub in July which makes it so much less likely to spread Covid than we saw in December, and back then we went from 200 cases a day to 8,000 in less than a month.

It's pretty clear that the medics are looking to buy some extra time, and it's going to be difficult (and I think reckless) for politicians to disagree with them.

Turtwig

The vulnerable groups are only part of the equation. Some of these will actually be hospitalised if there is another wave. Breakthrough infection for any vaccine is highest for this group.
However, I hope that at this stage the bigger vulnerability to the health system is actually the lowest risk populations that are unvaccinated.

alias no.9

Goldengirl wrote: »

In fairness to hmmm , hospitalisation for Delta has been reported widely in UK to be twice the incidence of the Alpha variant .
As others who regularly post here , I don't know where they are modelling the deaths from and am sceptical of that large an increase so soon and with that severity as we are very cautiously opening anything unlike the situation in the UK.

So unless you guys have any other solid information, maybe stow the abuse on posters trying to rationalise or debate .
It doesn't mean these posters are agents of the NPHET .

Simple question, if NPHET are publishing a modelling outcome where Ireland fairs much worse than applying Indias worst case mortality rate per capita over a sustained two month period, can you trust any NPHET model?