Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

duffman13

hmmm wrote: »

ECDC modelling is here (page 8 onwards):
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Implications-for-the-EU-EEA-on-the-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-Delta-VOC-23-June-2021.pdf

You read all this yes? A faster spread a lower mortality rate v Alpha (.3%v2%)

The less fatal more transmissible variant we've all had on our wish list for a while
Over 41% fully vaccinated and 67% with one dose

hmmm

alias no.9 wrote: »

Your numbers are nonsense. Look at a chart for cases in any country, peaks last a couple of days and fall off just as quickly as the rise.

Because of lockdowns and restrictions.

Unless you're talking about the "natural" rise and fall of cases in India, but I don't want to be trying to buy black-market oxygen if it turns out their figures for deaths turn out to have been completely false and not in any way suppressed for political purposes.

Goldengirl

Economics101 wrote: »

NPHET's worst case scenario over 3 months is 2,170 deaths , and the best case is 165. For case numbers the range is from 700,000 to 81,000. If their "models" give such a wide range of outcomes they are worthless: it would be more honest to say "we don't know".

Can you imagine if the typical Met Eireann forecast was that tomorrow's maximum temperature will be between 5c and 30c, and rainfall somewhere 0 and 500mm, do you think anyone would ever pay a blind bit of attention to weather forecasts?

There is too much belief in the infallibility of medics. I would trust them when it comes to treating my illness, but when it comes to statistical modelling I would give more credence to the hospital janitor.

Don't forget that all of this outrage and rightly so, incredulity about numbers is based on media reports .
As of yet we don't really know what was said and how they came to their conclusions.
Let's wait and see .
The media have been known to cause ructions before .

Turtwig

AdamD wrote: »

The result of the model is loopy, I'm not sure we need to know what loopy input got them to this point in order to judge it.

We don't even know what the result is. They do multiple scenarios and the media only have leaks. There's simply not enough details to know if anything is loopy yet.

Other than the inkling we may not like the result.

JRant

hmmm wrote: »

If you're happy to go back into lockdown for a few months if cases explode it's nonsense yes. I'm not, we had to put up with this "ignore NPHET and reopen!" bull**** in December and it cost us a fortune as a consequence.

We had 8,000 cases at peak in January, having risen from 200 cases in December. A virus isn't going to "level out" by itself until it infects everyone it can find who is susceptible. If we had not imposed restrictions in January we'd have easily hit several hundred thousand additional cases.

I'd like us to come out of the current one at some stage this year, preferably some time this summer or over the next few weeks.

Your post seems to suggest there will be a transmission chain unbroken between people. The vaccines work and are reducing serious illness and death while limiting spread.

Goldengirl

alias no.9 wrote: »

Simple question, if NPHET are publishing a modelling outcome where Ireland fairs much worse than applying Indias worst case mortality rate per capita over a sustained two month period, can you trust any NPHET model?

Simple question, if ......?

hmmm

duffman13 wrote: »

You read all this yes? A faster spread a lower mortality rate v Alpha (.3%v2%)

The less fatal more transmissible variant we've all had on our wish list for a while
Over 41% fully vaccinated and 67% with one dose

It's not less fatal (or at least that hasn't been proven). It's infecting groups who are less likely to die because we have vaccinated those at greater risk, and so the mortality appears to be decreasing if you look at the raw numbers.

We know that Delta spreads faster (c. 40%). There is some data suggesting that it may lead to greater levels of hospitalisation, but that hasn't been proven yet and may turn out to be incorrect. I've seen no reliable statistics on death rates by age, it hasn't been around long enough.

JRant

marno21 wrote: »

This thread is giving me a headache.

We’ve steadily opened up since April and there has been no increase in cases. Cases in vaccinated people have collapsed, there is a handful of people in hospital and the level of risk involved here is much much lower than before.

We’re now seriously considering destroying large swathes of the Irish economy because models, which have been thoroughly disproven in recent months, show a potential surge which hasn’t happened in several other countries with similar profiles of vaccination and have undergone similar reopenings over recent months.

This country is on a knife edge. A government terrified of making adult decisions deferring decisions which have life changing consequences over to a single issue motley crew of medics. It’s genuinely bizarre how ok the population is with what’s going on.

Remember Dr Glynn claiming a couple of weeks ago that we must not rely on models and only real world data counts?

alias no.9

Goldengirl wrote: »

Simple question, if ......?

It's being reported by political correspondants in broadsheets, it's not a barstool Chinese whisper

ixoy

hmmm wrote: »

ECDC modelling is here (page 8 onwards):
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Implications-for-the-EU-EEA-on-the-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-Delta-VOC-23-June-2021.pdf

I don't care for them lumping in single doses with no vaccination in the report and the rise in projected cases seems a bit too steep but at least it's some sort of potential model. It seems odd though that vaccines don't seem to impact it much even if restriction easings are delayed for months.

Klonker

53 people under the age of 44 have died from covid from March last year to May this year. 20 people have died under the age of 34. I think it's fair to assume most of these would have had serious underlying conditions and people on similar situations would be fully vaccinated now. Where are they getting their 2000+ deaths from?

Turtwig

All of this reopening sh1t could have been avoided weeks ago if we'd agreed a protocol for fully vaccinated to indoor dine and drink. Instead we dithered on that and it's potentially come back to bite us.

Gael23

These projections steep sending out a message that vaccination is pointless.

Something very significant needs to happen in the next 24 hours

Atlantic Dawn

Why did we rely on grouped thinking to use vaccines but will not rely on the same common approach to opening the place back up?

JRant

hmmm wrote: »

We'd have to look at the modelling assumptions to figure that out I'd say. We're doing 50,000 vaccines a day, it's a huge number. Despite what was said above I don't see what has changed about the inside of a pub in July which makes it so much less likely to spread Covid than we saw in December, and back then we went from 200 cases a day to 8,000 in less than a month.

It's pretty clear that the medics are looking to buy some extra time, and it's going to be difficult (and I think reckless) for politicians to disagree with them.

But you have no proof that the inside of pubs caused 8k cases a day in January. There was practically no Co tact tracing carried out as the system collapsed long before we got to that figure. Comparing opening indoor in December and the same in July is a strange one and I don't see the similarities at all.

duffman13

hmmm wrote: »

It's not less fatal (or at least that hasn't been proven). It's infecting groups who are less likely to die because we have vaccinated those at greater risk, and so the mortality appears to be decreasing if you look at the raw numbers.

We know that Delta spreads faster (c. 40%). There is some data suggesting that it may lead to greater levels of hospitalisation, but that hasn't been proven yet and may turn out to be incorrect. I've seen no reliable statistics on death rates by age, it hasn't been around long enough.

Honestly, I'm tired and need sleep. At the end of the day, we are in a privileged position with our nearest neighbours being about 6 weeks ahead. This gives us time to react, plan and be agile. None of the above in the ECDC report is actually accurate, its projection based and a Conservative slant. NPHETs modelling is actually more conservative than the ECDCs worst case which is crazy

I'd recommend having a listen to Paul Moyna on Pat Kenny this morning. Very middle of the road expert sounding a cautionary note while also highlighting some of the things we could do to help a return to normality.

JRant

Turtwig wrote: »

All of this reopening sh1t could have been avoided weeks ago if we'd agreed a protocol for fully vaccinated to indoor dine and drink. Instead we dithered on that and it's potentially come back to bite us.

Only vaccinated people or would you add in those with a negative rapid test or recently recovered as well?

hmmm

ixoy wrote: »

It seems odd though that vaccines don't seem to impact it much even if restriction easings are delayed for months.

It's a bit of a head-scratcher alright. But just because I don't understand the modelling, doesn't mean I feel qualified to say they are wrong...

giveitholly

Turtwig wrote: »

All of this reopening sh1t could have been avoided weeks ago if we'd agreed a protocol for fully vaccinated to indoor dine and drink. Instead we dithered on that and it's potentially come back to bite us.

And who would of served the fully vaccinated people?

Atlantic Dawn

giveitholly wrote: »

And who would of served the fully vaccinated people?

You would fast track them like the HSE staff.

Klonker

Turtwig wrote: »

All of this reopening sh1t could have been avoided weeks ago if we'd agreed a protocol for fully vaccinated to indoor dine and drink. Instead we dithered on that and it's potentially come back to bite us.

If NPHET allowed antigen testing it could of been done, not without.

giveitholly

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

You would fast track them like the HSE staff.

Jaysus everyone would be classifying themselves as hospitality workers!!!!

cefh17

Turtwig wrote: »

All of this reopening sh1t could have been avoided weeks ago if we'd agreed a protocol for fully vaccinated to indoor dine and drink. Instead we dithered on that and it's potentially come back to bite us.

So what, a big 2 fingers to everyone 35 and under who are still waiting for their vaccine?

Ah yeah, sure we're used to it already

Klonker

hmmm wrote: »

It's a bit of a head-scratcher alright. But just because I don't understand the modelling, doesn't mean I feel qualified to say they are wrong...

Either Ireland is wrong or the rest of the world is wrong. Which is more likely? Delta isn't exclusive to us.

Multipass

Turtwig wrote: »

All of this reopening sh1t could have been avoided weeks ago if we'd agreed a protocol for fully vaccinated to indoor dine and drink. Instead we dithered on that and it's potentially come back to bite us.

We didn’t dither - it’s a disgusting concept and hopefully we continue to reject it. To bar people who were never at any risk, whilst the vaccinated vulnerable that they were told to protect get freedom. F that. (I’m fully vaccinated, but I’d join protests against vaccine apartheid)

Turtwig

JRant wrote: »

Only vaccinated people or would you add in those with a negative rapid test or recently recovered as well?

That's a tough one. I don't know how previous infections and rapid tests work for delta. I'd probably follow Israel during their reopening phase months ago. Not fully vaccinated; no entry.

It's no where near ideal. At least this offers the businesses a chance to re-open - and they could have done so weeks ago!

Atlantic Dawn

giveitholly wrote: »

Jaysus everyone would be classifying themselves as hospitality workers!!!!

Revenue would have their employment category already captured, no need to contact NASA to calculate it.

Turtwig

giveitholly wrote: »

And who would of served the fully vaccinated people?

Staff with the appropriate PPE and procedures.

giveitholly

Turtwig wrote: »

That's a tough one. I don't know how previous infections and rapid tests work for delta. I'd probably follow Israel during their reopening phase months ago. Not fully vaccinated; no entry.

It's no where near ideal. At least this offers the businesses a chance to re-open - and they could have done so weeks ago!

Who would work in these businesses that could of opened weeks ago?

Polar101

alias no.9 wrote: »

Simple question, if NPHET are publishing a modelling outcome where Ireland fairs much worse than applying Indias worst case mortality rate per capita over a sustained two month period, can you trust any NPHET model?

The question doesn't make sense. All we know from India is that they had a lot of cases, and now they have fewer cases than they had before. It's unlikely their numbers are exact enough that they should be used in any kind of modeling in Ireland.