Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

giveitholly

Turtwig wrote: »

Staff with the appropriate PPE and procedures.

Surely customers could then dine and drink in these businesses if they wore appropriate PPE and followed procedures

Goldengirl

duffman13 wrote: »

Ah stop will you. If you want to call 270k an underestimate then grand but more people have a natural immunity than we thought, that's good news, not bad

8,000 cases a day wasn't sustained and won't be anywhere near that given a) vaccination numbers and b)natural immunity

At the time of the HSE attack 18% or so of the 18-44 category had covid and therefore some form of immunity

You are also neglecting the people who are likely to contract it are not at risk and are going to be slightly more vaccine hesitant. As for it sounding like January, it's literally nothing, and I mean nothing like January

1. Wild type immunity does not confer immunity from variants , only the specific infecting strain , that is why vaccinations are adjusted for variants .

2. Vaccines are not completely 100% although they are in the high 90% efficacy with 2 doses .

3. There will be a minority that are fully vaccinated that will become sick because of waning immunity and immunocompromise .

4. All young people are not immune to serious illness .

The higher the community transmission of the variant the more all of the above applies....

However...I cannot see this situation deteriorating so fast as a) we still have restrictions and b) so many are and so many will be vaccinated in the next few weeks .

I can't see this being pushed out beyond 19th July, except they know something that nobody here knows , which is possible I suppose , do you think maybe ?
Or maybe not and then it is actually just a load of ....

Turtwig

giveitholly wrote: »

Surely customers could then dine and drink in these businesses if they wore appropriate PPE and followed procedures

How do people wearing masks properly eat and drink? Most enter these premises to socialise and chat. The louder they talk the more likely an infection is spread.

If you follow the interim Israeli system, you don't even require social distancing for fully vaxxed. . The premises can be packed.

Klonker

Goldengirl wrote: »

1. Wild type immunity does not confer immunity from variants , only the specific infecting strain , that is why vaccinations are adjusted for variants .

This isn't true. Previous infections gives a high level of immunity to all variants, though it dips slightly, similar to the vaccines. The vaccines haven't been adjusted for variants yet as they haven't needed to be.

I agree with the rest of your post though.

Turtwig

Goldengirl wrote: »

However...I cannot see this situation deteriorating so fast as a) we still have restrictions and b) so many are and so many will be vaccinated in the next few weeks

The rapid deterioration if reported correctly is really surprising. Very interested to see under what conditions exactly they expect it to occur.

nc6000

I'm really sick of this, it's never-ending. They might as well just tell us that the rest of 2021 is a write-off.

Goldengirl

alias no.9 wrote: »

It's being reported by political correspondants in broadsheets, it's not a barstool Chinese whisper

What isn't ?
And you accusing others of posting nonsense.
Link ?

JRant

Turtwig wrote: »

That's a tough one. I don't know how previous infections and rapid tests work for delta. I'd probably follow Israel during their reopening phase months ago. Not fully vaccinated; no entry.

It's no where near ideal. At least this offers the businesses a chance to re-open - and they could have done so weeks ago!

But they have a chance to open now even without those measures. If these reports are true, then we are going to decide public policy on worst case scenario modelling that is wildly inaccurate. Israel reopened and quickly removed a lot of the restrictions that we will still have in place even if we reopened now. Businesses can't operate in this current environment. There's far too much uncertainty coming from government and the communication from them has been appalling this past week.

We are in a very good position to reopen now. Hospital numbers are probably as low as they'll go, case numbers steady and we're declining. The link between cases and hospitalisations is prettyuch broken. Let's take the next step and see how it goes. This paralysis by analysis is killing small businesses all across the country a d the government don't seem to care one jot.

JRant

Turtwig wrote: »

How do people wearing masks properly eat and drink? Most enter these premises to socialise and chat. The louder they talk the more likely an infection is spread.

If you follow the interim Israeli system, you don't even require social distancing for fully vaxxed. . The premises can be packed.

That's not even on the table. The talk of reopening for vaccinated people will 100% include all the current social distancing rules etc that were going to be applied anyway.

Goldengirl

Klonker wrote: »

53 people under the age of 44 have died from covid from March last year to May this year. 20 people have died under the age of 34. I think it's fair to assume most of these would have had serious underlying conditions and people on similar situations would be fully vaccinated now. Where are they getting their 2000+ deaths from?

Why do people think that it " is fair to assume " anything when they really don't have a clue about what those young people actually died from?
You do realise that many " underlying conditions " are only diagnosed in the young when they become ill?

Klonker

Goldengirl wrote: »

Why do people think that it " is fair to assume " anything when they really don't have a clue about what those young people actually died from?
You do realise that many " underlying conditions " are only diagnosed in the young when they become ill?

Up to 12 December (last report published) at least 93.4% of deaths had an underlying condition. I say at least because 2.7% didn't and 4% was unknown. So I stand by my 'is fair to assume'.

Anything to back up your "only diagnosed when they get sick"?

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/

nocoverart

nc6000 wrote: »

I'm really sick of this, it's never-ending. They might as well just tell us that the rest of 2021 is a write-off.

I know, right? when this all hit hard around March 20, never would I of thought we’d be still carrying this burden 15 months later… and what’s even more surprising (for me, anyways) is the most problematic aspect of it all right now isn’t the virus in of it self but the dishonest media and mass hysteria that coincides with it. Don’t get get me wrong, I don’t want to get Covid but the way Variants have been used as scaremongering is nothing short of an insult to the actual science behind the vaccines.

Goldengirl

JRant wrote: »

But they have a chance to open now even without those measures. If these reports are true, then we are going to decide public policy on worst case scenario modelling that is wildly inaccurate. Israel reopened and quickly removed a lot of the restrictions that we will still have in place even if we reopened now. Businesses can't operate in this current environment. There's far too much uncertainty coming from government and the communication from them has been appalling this past week.

We are in a very good position to reopen now. Hospital numbers are probably as low as they'll go, case numbers steady and we're declining. The link between cases and hospitalisations is prettyuch broken. Let's take the next step and see how it goes. This paralysis by analysis is killing small businesses all across the country a d the government don't seem to care one jot.

Israel reintroduced restrictions and maskwearing just in the last couple of weeks
Their vaccination programme had stalled and cases were rising again as result .
Currently emphasising vaccine bonus to encourage younger age groups who were hesitant .
So no entry unless vaxxed .

ceadaoin.

Goldengirl wrote: »

1. Wild type immunity does not confer immunity from variants , only the specific infecting strain , that is why vaccinations are adjusted for variants .

2 ....

Not true. There is zero evidence that prior infection doesn't confer immunity against variants. The vast majority of people are still protected over a year later at least and the vast majority of those unlucky enough to be reinfected, have no symptoms

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v3

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-national-surveillance-of-possible-covid-19-reinfection-published-by-phe

There is currently no evidence that the Delta variant, or any other Variants of Concern, are more likely to cause reinfection than others, but we will closely monitor this.

Also, which vaccinations have been adjusted for variants to date? I thought they were found to protect against variants and no adjustments were needed?

Atlantic Dawn

Goldengirl wrote: »

Israel reintroduced restrictions and maskwearing just in the last couple of weeks
Their vaccination programme had stalled and cases were rising again as result .
Currently emphasising vaccine bonus to encourage younger age groups who were hesitant .
So no entry unless vaxxed .

And not a single benefit whatsoever to you in Ireland if you have been vaccinated or not.

Goldengirl

Klonker wrote: »

This isn't true. Previous infections gives a high level of immunity to all variants, though it dips slightly, similar to the vaccines. The vaccines haven't been adjusted for variants yet as they haven't needed to be.

I agree with the rest of your post though.

Talking about other vaccines like flu .
And yes , Pfizer for one , are currently " tweaking "

Klonker

Goldengirl wrote: »

Talking about other vaccines like flu .
And yes , Pfizer for one , are currently " tweaking "

Covid isn't same as flu, it doesn't mutate as much thankfully so it's not a good comparison. Yes I believe they are trialling it currently but the current Pfizer vaccine is very effective against all known variants.

ceadaoin.

Goldengirl wrote: »

Talking about other vaccines like flu .
And yes , Pfizer for one , are currently " tweaking "

Are they? Do you have a link? Can't find anything except statements that it works on the variants and doesn't need adapting as of now

Goldengirl

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Not true. There is zero evidence that prior infection doesn't confer immunity against variants. The vast majority of people are still protected over a year later at least and the vast majority of those unlucky enough to be reinfected, have no symptoms

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v3

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-national-surveillance-of-possible-covid-19-reinfection-published-by-phe



Also, which vaccinations have been adjusted for variants to date? I thought they were found to protect against variants and no adjustments were needed?

Your first link is too old to be relevant , and yes, wild type immunity does confer some immunity and antibodies but people are recommended to get a dose of a vaccine also .

2nd article does not have information on Delta as yet as it only began circulating when that study was ending .

By the way if there is zero evidence , how is it not true ? The two statements are not the same thing

Goldengirl

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Are they? Do you have a link? Can't find anything except statements that it works on the variants and doesn't need adapting as of now

Goodnight !

ceadaoin.

Goldengirl wrote: »

Goodnight !

So pfizer isnt being tweaked then? Grand.

Goldengirl

ceadaoin. wrote: »

So pfizer isnt being tweaked then? Grand.

Read Klonker's post above , similar to mine .
Not looking fir linksatthis time to post . Night .

JRant

Goldengirl wrote: »

Israel reintroduced restrictions and maskwearing just in the last couple of weeks
Their vaccination programme had stalled and cases were rising again as result .
Currently emphasising vaccine bonus to encourage younger age groups who were hesitant .
So no entry unless vaxxed .

I read they reintroduced masks but decided against reintroducing restrictions as the link between cases and hospitalisations is broken.

Happydays2020

I think a two week delay may be best as it will ensure a far great proportion of 50’s and 60’s will be fully dosed.

But this is quite frankly alarmist and those modellers should be ashamed of themselves. Deliberately over egging it and ignoring the science.

The worst-case scenario would potentially see almost 700,000 cases of the virus over July, August and September, with as many as 2,170 deaths as the Delta variant becomes dominant. The most optimistic projection would see 81,000 cases and 165 deaths.

The Irish Times understands the modelling estimates almost 13,000 hospital admissions over the three months, and more than 1,600 people in intensive care units (ICU) should the most pessimistic scenario play out. One source said this would see hospitals “overrun”.

The most benign scenario would see just over 1,500 admissions and 195 people in ICUs.

Eod100

This seemed to come out of nowhere. Varadkar mentioned it yesterday morning in radio 1 but seemed more like he was thinking out loud rather than seriously considering it. https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1409727294944550913?s=19

Happydays2020

Eod100 wrote: »

This seemed to come out of nowhere. Varadkar mentioned it yesterday morning in radio 1 but seemed more like he was thinking out loud rather than seriously considering it. https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1409727294944550913?s=19

Should have been looked at three months ago. It was an obvious option.

Doctor Jimbob

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Should have been looked at three months ago. It was an obvious option.

Yep. Should have been plans to have something like this in place just in case a long time ago. Instead businesses get fúcked over yet again.

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

This seemed to come out of nowhere. Varadkar mentioned it yesterday morning in radio 1 but seemed more like he was thinking out loud rather than seriously considering it. https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1409727294944550913?s=19

A two week delay could have been explained on the basis of getting more vaccinated. This "vaccinated only indoors" idea does seem like an effort by NPHET to appear reasonable given the pretty absurd models they have produced. Generally been supportive of NPHET efforts but the time has come to address much wider societal considerations than their very narrow focus.

giveitholly

Vaccine passports? Jesus what a load of crap,once again the young people of this country are getting screwed. Absolutely disgusted with developments over the last 24 hours

Eod100

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Should have been looked at three months ago. It was an obvious option.

Brings up a lot of issues so not sure system could be sorted within a few weeks. Guess there must be some sort of system to the vaccine card for travel like QR code but not sure how it would work sharing access to pubs and restaurants.