Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

is_that_so

cheezums wrote: »

Absolutely gutted for certain restaurants and pubs who were hanging on by a thread. This was last chance saloon for them. They are done now.

Not unless there is an actual plan they will stick to, by July 19. The herding of people into two groups is not a plan. What seems to be forgotten here is that the so-called vaccination bonus was used as a nudge to get people vaccinated not as a way to preclude people who can't get one from doing certain social activities.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

Because they didn't take the precautions they were told they should.

At some point personal responsibility comes into it. Blame the government, NPHET and the media all you like but the blunt truth is that its peoples' behaviour that gives the virus to others.

Human behaviour.

There will always be some virus/illness spreading.

is_that_so

RGS wrote: »

Met the local restaurant owner whilst walking the dog this lunch hour. Ive cant remember the last time I saw a person so drained of life. No sparkle in his eyes it was really sad.

Does MM, NPHET or the government care--- NO


MM going on about no independent evaluation of NPHETs modelling is unbelievable. Surely if a government is presented with these projections last minute before a major decision they should be questioning the figures and seeking a second opinion.

The government are really scared of NPHET.

Christmas haunts them and they will not go against them this time. The numbers really are pie in the sky and a pretty dubious base to recommend as they have.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

Human behaviour.


There will always be some virus/illness spreading.

Is that all the government's fault too?

Wolf359f

rob316 wrote: »

The optimistic projections are even off the wall. That's on par with what happened in January

There's logic to holding off on indoor dining, for the most part, but those projections are off the wall. Maybe they can explain how delta can or could spread so fast in Ireland but much slower/if at all in the rest of the EU?

hmmm

seamus wrote: »

I'll usually give NPHET the benefit of the doubt in that their primary purpose is public health and thus will be naturally cautious.

That letter from the CMO, is way beyond it though. There's cautious and then there's whatever this is.

I've had a good read of it now, and it's well written.

More than anything else it seems to be the lack of a second vaccine for at-risk groups which is causing the problem. Anyone who says that the "vulnerable are vaccinated" doesn't have the full picture. So you see lots of infections in the young who are at relatively low-risk, but the older and vulnerable populations with only a single dose are then at significant risk.

It's hard to argue with the figures as presented. Things should look much better in late July as the over 50s and the group 7 get their second doses.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

Is that all the government's fault too?

If nobody is factoring in human behaviour, yes very much so.

There are many reasons why humans need to leave the house everyday.

is_that_so

Wolf359f wrote: »

There's logic to holding off on indoor dining, for the most part, but those projections are off the wall. Maybe they can explain how delta can or could spread so fast in Ireland but much slower/if at all in the rest of the EU?

It's really back to those unmitigated projections of last March. They seem to ignore so many things, that people will respond to rapid case rises and take their their own measures, that we now have a pretty decent test and trace system and that the HSE public teams are capable of corralling sudden outbreaks.

boggerman1

hmmm wrote: »

I've had a good read of it now, and it's well written.

More than anything else it seems to be the lack of a second vaccine for at-risk groups which is causing the problem. Anyone who says that the "vulnerable are vaccinated" doesn't have the full picture. So you see lots of infections in the young who are at relatively low-risk, but the older and vulnerable populations with only a single dose are then at significant risk.

It's hard to argue with the figures as presented. Things should look much better in late July as the over 50s and the group 7 get their second doses.

Fair play to you to still be defending houlihan and dodgy maths Nolan.have grass ,live horse.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

I've had a good read of it now, and it's well written.

More than anything else it seems to be the lack of a second vaccine for at-risk groups which is causing the problem. Anyone who says that the "vulnerable are vaccinated" doesn't have the full picture. So you see lots of infections in the young who are at relatively low-risk, but the older and vulnerable populations with only a single dose are then at significant risk.

It's hard to argue with the figures as presented. Things should look much better in late July as the over 50s and the group 7 get their second doses.

You were saying its just another few weeks until some more people get vaccinated.

Today it was confirmed that its just another few weeks until we put a plan in place that will allow indoor dining to eventually go ahead for fully vaccinated people.

The alternative was a much more prolonged delay according to Leo. No date has been provided for when indoor dining will be permitted for non vaccinated.

Do you still feel like we are a few short weeks away from normality?

FintanMcluskey

hmmm wrote: »

I've had a good read of it now, and it's well written.

More than anything else it seems to be the lack of a second vaccine for at-risk groups which is causing the problem. Anyone who says that the "vulnerable are vaccinated" doesn't have the full picture. So you see lots of infections in the young who are at relatively low-risk, but the older and vulnerable populations with only a single dose are then at significant risk.

It's hard to argue with the figures as presented. Things should look much better in late July as the over 50s and the group 7 get their second doses.

Well written?

It’s literally numbers pulled out of their bottoms while ignoring data from across Europe and the uk

podgeandrodge

We need to flatten the curve.

funnydoggy

boggerman1 wrote: »

Fair play to you to still be defending houlihan and dodgy maths Nolan.have grass ,live horse.

To be fair, hmmmm (I may have added an extra m sorry lol) is an impartial poster and has been a repeatedly good source of information and explanations in the vaccine thread.

I don't think they love what's going on, as much as any of us.

mloc123

podgeandrodge wrote: »

We need to flatten the curve.

The next 2 weeks are crucial.... hold firm, stay safe...

funnydoggy

mloc123 wrote: »

The next 2 weeks are crucial.... hold firm, stay safe...

It's the "#ForUsAll" that pisses me off the most.

Tacitus Kilgore

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

What?



Off to the restrictions thread with ye

not at all, thanks anyway for the reference.

Wolf359f

is_that_so wrote: »

It's really back to those unmitigated projections of last March. They seem to ignore so many things, that people will respond to rapid case rises and take their their own measures, that we now have a pretty decent test and trace system and that the HSE public teams are capable of corralling sudden outbreaks.

It seems to be ignoring that we will keep vaccinating people. I know AZ second doses are needed and they are being fast tracked. It's almost like NPHET assume the worst, that no more vaccines will be given out.

hmmm

Deleted User wrote: »

You were saying its just another few weeks until some more people get vaccinated.

Today it was confirmed that its just another few weeks until we put a plan in place that will allow indoor dining to eventually go ahead for fully vaccinated people.

You can read the letter yourself. It emphasises how the at-risk groups are not fully protected yet, and there are lots of second vaccines due to be given out in the next few weeks.

Look, I've said for a long time ago that I'd support vaccine passports to give businesses a chance to survive. It's not all 70 year olds who are vaccinated, there are lots of health workers and other younger groups who are as well. But we decided that we were special, and we weren't going to do this, and now we're screwed.

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

I've had a good read of it now, and it's well written.

More than anything else it seems to be the lack of a second vaccine for at-risk groups which is causing the problem. Anyone who says that the "vulnerable are vaccinated" doesn't have the full picture. So you see lots of infections in the young who are at relatively low-risk, but the older and vulnerable populations with only a single dose are then at significant risk.

It's hard to argue with the figures as presented. Things should look much better in late July as the over 50s and the group 7 get their second doses.

How exactly do we end up with a worse surge than Christmas with over 40% fully vaccinated? Better at the end of July does not excuse these wild numbers. I admire your optimism that NPHET will be singing a different tune by then as the worst case scenario is that summer is done.

We are still paying the price for our inadequate health service which despite the billions been spent on it, doesn't have even half the amount of icu beds in our acute public hospitals. Tony Holohan knows this all too well. While Holohan and NPHET will get enormous criticism from the public, it's our hopeless and pathetic successive governments that have to take full responsibility and they should be the one getting a earful from the weary and angry public.

If only we had a proper and functioning health service then the country would be in a far better place and reopening society and unlocking the economy would have carried on. From recent health ministers from MM, to Mary Harney, to James Reilly, to Leo V, to Simon Harris and now Stephen Donnelly, to their dysfunctional departments, they may talk the good game, but in actual performance and implementation of the necessary reforms key to a functioning and effective public health service, they have failed miserably. That is where people's angst should be directed at.

With the right resources rather than pumping continuous billions into bureaucracy and its structures, the status quo of increased trolley numbers, budget overruns, doctor, consultant and nurse shortages and the lack of beds including in critical care and icu will remain. I might be deviating from the actual covid subject but if we had an semblance of a health service then we would be in a far stronger position to do the stuff like the continued unlocking/reopening the Irish economy.

But even in the Celtic Tiger era and booming tax revenues we squandered it all and now with our public finances in a far more precarious position similar to when the Troika came to town and a loss of our economic sovereignty in 2010, along with the same incompetent governments that we've become far too accustomed in Ireland, then I hold little or no hope for a change to the same failed policies that has made our health service more vulnerable to a global heath pandemic or emergency like covid compared to other jurisdictions/countries.

Multipass

How about a special badge for the one vaccine over 60s, to ensure that they stay out of anywhere dangerous to them, and that we can recognise and swerve around them. Makes more sense than discriminating against people at basically no risk.

bodhrandude

The main Covid thread is back to the good old days of being very busy, but no wonder! I think NPHET should bloody resign, their modelling is absolutely ridiculous at this stage. If Wild Roots get cancelled I hope the 10,000 angry fans will converge on Leinster House and punch some politicians in protest.

celt262

mloc123 wrote: »

The next 2 weeks are crucial.... hold firm, stay safe...

That isn't even funny anymore

TheDoctor

celt262 wrote: »

That isn't even funny anymore

Are you holding firm enough?

Marty Bird

hmmm wrote: »

You can read the letter yourself. It emphasises how the at-risk groups are not fully protected yet, and there are lots of second vaccines due to be given out in the next few weeks.

Look, I've said for a long time ago that I'd support vaccine passports to give businesses a chance to survive. It's not all 70 year olds who are vaccinated, there are lots of health workers and other younger groups who are as well. But we decided that we were special, and we weren't going to do this, and now we're screwed.

Maybe they should just issue advice to those cohorts to not attend those settings if they’re at risk, time to let people choose for themselves what’s risky or not.

hmmm

is_that_so wrote: »

How exactly do we end up with a worse surge than Christmas with over 40% fully vaccinated? Better at the end of July does not excuse these wild numbers. I admire your optimism that NPHET will be singing a different tune by then as the worst case scenario is that summer is done.

Page 9 of the letter is the key one I think.

They are estimating a "conservative" transmission advantage of 1.55 time Alpha. That's too high I think, the UK seems to be looking at 1.4 . The figures are changing all the time however.

Their higher estimate is 1.6.

Based on their models, I would say the most likely outcome is somewhere around their "Central 1" scenario (450 in ICU), and increasing vaccinations will bring that figure down over time.

But I can understand they want to be cautious in the face of a lot of uncertainty. A few weeks delay will buy the at-risk groups a lot of extra protection, and also give us much better information on Delta.

Doctors room ghost

A fcukin jokeshop of a country, governed by gombeens.
Rinse and repeat folks.
Rinse and repeat

Doctors room ghost

celt262 wrote: »

That isn't even funny anymore

It was never fcukin funny.

iamwhoiam

Multipass wrote: »

How about a special badge for the one vaccine over 60s, to ensure that they stay out of anywhere dangerous to them, and that we can recognise and swerve around them. Makes more sense than discriminating against people at basically no risk.

You don’t have to swerve around me thanks . I am quite happy mixing and meeting

“ vaccinated over 60 “

timmyntc

hmmm wrote: »

Page 9 of the letter is the key one I think.

They are estimating a "conservative" transmission advantage of 1.55 time Alpha. That's too high I think, the UK seems to be looking at 1.4 . The figures are changing all the time however.

Their higher estimate is 1.6.

Based on their models, I would say the most likely outcome is somewhere between their "Optimistic" and "Central 1" scenarios (195 in ICU and 450 in ICU), and increasing vaccinations will bring those figures down over time.

But I can understand they want to be cautious in the face of a lot of uncertainty. A few weeks delay will buy the at-risk groups a lot of extra protection, and also give us much better information on Delta.

Sure an extra month would give even more protection - an extra 2 months, even more again!


Honest to god where does it end? Are we trying to eliminate every single covid death? because it certainly appears that way