Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

hmmm

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We have issues with hospital capacity every year, COVID or not. It will be under pressure again in the near future, COVID or not. What's the solution here? We keep a significant number of businesses closed or severely limited until our recurring healthcare system issues are resolved?

I haven't a clue, what would you do?

And not something vague about improving the system, what solution could we implement in the next 3 or 4 weeks? (other than suspending all elective admissions).

Spiderman0081

I’ve felt that I’ve been extremely fortunate to be in Sweden since day one of this pandemic. But now I am starting to worry. Really worry. Indoor dining is open here (well it never closed) which means according to Nphet we are about to see 1.400.000 cases of covid before the end of September. Why didn’t I just move back home where I could have been protected by the all knowing, all powerful Dr Holohan.

stephenjmcd

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, the numbers at the outset are fine, as is the rationale, it's just the models that go off on one (as well the enforcement recommendations)

As you say, the "Central 1" model seems about the most realistic - if we were to pause vaccinations. As it stands, 90% of the over-40s will be fully vaccinated by the end of the July. The cases could ramp up, but the projected hospital and death numbers to the end of September just don't add up unless you discount the vaccination programme completely.

That's the thing that I'm struggling with here, I just don't see any scenario playing out through the numbers by looking at other countries where the hospital and death numbers get anywhere close to the projections.

Cases could indeed increase but that link that gave cause for concern between cases and hospitals and sadly death just doesn't exist to the levels forecasted, especially not by the end of September

timmyntc

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

I’ve felt that I’ve been extremely fortunate to be in Sweden since day one of this pandemic. But now I am starting to worry. Really worry. Indoor dining is open here (well it never closed) which means according to Nphet we are about to see 1.400.000 cases of covid before the end of September. Why didn’t I just move back home where I could have been protected by the all knowing, all powerful Dr Holohan.

Just tell the swedes to dine in hotels instead!

Marty Bird

hmmm wrote: »

I haven't a clue, what would you do?

And not something vague about improving the system, what solution could we implement in the next 3 or 4 weeks? (other than suspending all elective admissions).

Use the private capacity sure we have spent millions on it and didn’t use it, pay it again to get all the ridiculous waiting lists down to zero sure we are shìt deep in debt now whats another couple of billion.

Cork2021

Okay saying it now! The letter is a joke! The CMO and NPHET have gone beyond reproach!

They won’t come out and talk to media yet when it suits them they’ll ridicule a whole population just because they can. They’ve been let do it!

Summer is gone for indoor hospitality and if anyone thinks otherwise your heads are fully in the sand. The vaccine passports won’t work. They’ll have fakes etc..

The modelling is off the charts and total fear and scaremongering. It undermines the vaccine programme and it’s playing us all for fools

TefalBrain

"We are all in this together", until in fact we are not all in this together.

As i near my 50's in life it's with utter embarrassment i see the way this country treats it's young. Then again haven't we always.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, the numbers at the outset are fine, as is the rationale, it's just the models that go off on one (as well the enforcement recommendations)

As you say, the "Central 1" model seems about the most realistic - if we were to pause vaccinations. As it stands, 90% of the over-40s will be fully vaccinated by the end of the July. The cases could ramp up, but the projected hospital and death numbers to the end of September just don't add up unless you discount the vaccination programme completely.

and what about those who cannot or indeed may not want a vaccine?
what are they to do? it seems to me that this is more like a reward system to get vaccinated or as Newstalk call it, the vaccine bonus. It wasn't long NPHET were saying kids cannot spread it or are not even in danger, just so they could open the schools. Now with I'll bet one month between reopening and schools opening, you'll hear the same shyte peddled out and in fact even more draconian two tier system offerings in the wings. I'd have never believed it a year ago and yet here we are, the stick to get jabbed when the carrot failed to work..

jakiah

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

I’ve felt that I’ve been extremely fortunate to be in Sweden since day one of this pandemic. But now I am starting to worry. Really worry. Indoor dining is open here (well it never closed) which means according to Nphet we are about to see 1.400.000 cases of covid before the end of September. Why didn’t I just move back home where I could have been protected by the all knowing, all powerful Dr Holohan.

This. Exactly this. My partner is in France with indoor dining etc. open, according to the NPHET model tens of thousands are going to die there between now and September.

I mean surely it cant be right.

iamwhoiam

I feel really despondent today . The realisation that we have a cowardly mickey mouse Government who don’t give a toss about anything or anyone is actually upsetting me . We are left to our own devices basically and no one leading or guiding us .

amandstu

This on the RTE (Fergal Bowers) page.Anyone explain what that means?

The warning is that while infections would occur largely in younger, unvaccinated people, as the force of infection grows, significant numbers would also be seen in older, vaccinated people"

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0629/1232066-nphet-view-of-covid-threat/

MerlinSouthDub

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That's the thing that I'm struggling with here, I just don't see any scenario playing out through the numbers by looking at other countries where the hospital and death numbers get anywhere close to the projections.

Cases could indeed increase but that link that gave cause for concern between cases and hospitals and sadly death just doesn't exist to the levels forecasted, especially not by the end of September

Yes a very odd projection. There is no mention of what the numbers vaccinated are expected to be at end of September, for example. You would think that would be pretty fundamental!

TheDoctor

Spiderman0081 wrote: »

I’ve felt that I’ve been extremely fortunate to be in Sweden since day one of this pandemic. But now I am starting to worry. Really worry. Indoor dining is open here (well it never closed) which means according to Nphet we are about to see 1.400.000 cases of covid before the end of September. Why didn’t I just move back home where I could have been protected by the all knowing, all powerful Dr Holohan.

Thoughts and prayers

Indestructable

Anyone want to scale up the figures to an EU level and see what they're in for in the next 3 months, for a laugh. They need to be warned.

jakiah

amandstu wrote: »

This on the RTE (Fergal Bowers) page.Anyone explain what that means?

The warning is that while infections would occur largely in younger, unvaccinated people, as the force of infection grows, significant numbers would also be seen in older, vaccinated people"

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0629/1232066-nphet-view-of-covid-threat/

It means the vaccine doesnt work as we'd hoped it does and the worst could be yet to come with this virus.

If you believe NPHET.

jakiah

Indestructable wrote: »

Anyone want to scale up the figures to an EU level and see what they're in for in the next 3 months, for a laugh. They need to be warned.

Are NPHET not warning them? They have information that hundreds of thousands of Europeans will die.

hmmm

amandstu wrote: »

This on the RTE (Fergal Bowers) page.Anyone explain what that means?

The warning is that while infections would occur largely in younger, unvaccinated people, as the force of infection grows, significant numbers would also be seen in older, vaccinated people"

The letter discusses this. We still have a significant group of more vulnerable people who haven't received their second vaccination, so they become at risk if there is a significant spread in younger groups.

"(75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received
second dose; cohort 7 not yet complete)"

Hopefully most of them will be vaccinated over the next few weeks.

ednwireland

default nphet stance open nothing, then if numbers go down "look how well we did". if they go up "its everyone elses fault"

i suspect numbers will probably rise now as people give up and have house parties and nphet will say "told you so"
(

jakiah

hmmm wrote: »

The letter discusses this. We still have a significant group of more vulnerable people who haven't received their second vaccination, so they become at risk if there is a significant spread in younger groups.

"(75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received
second dose; cohort 7 not yet complete)"

Hopefully most of them will be vaccinated over the next few weeks.

Has there been specific advice to this cohort to isolate seeing as they are so exposed?

is_that_so

amandstu wrote: »

This on the RTE (Fergal Bowers) page.Anyone explain what that means?

The warning is that while infections would occur largely in younger, unvaccinated people, as the force of infection grows, significant numbers would also be seen in older, vaccinated people"

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0629/1232066-nphet-view-of-covid-threat/

What we've seen before, like Christmas. If enough younger groups get infected older people are at risk. Now we have 40%+ fully vaccinated so quite probably not true.

is_that_so

Not sure if this was posted earlier but bemusement and anger at the dining passport idea in government.

“This thing just fell out of the clear blue sky,” said one Government figure of the move to give only vaccinated people the privilege of enjoying indoor activities this summer.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/analysis-move-on-indoor-dining-for-vaccinated-fell-out-of-clear-blue-sky-1.4606883

muddypuppy

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We have issues with hospital capacity every year, COVID or not. It will be under pressure again in the near future, COVID or not. What's the solution here? We keep a significant number of businesses closed or severely limited until our recurring healthcare system issues are resolved?

So forever, because it doesn't seem that the government is in any hurry to provide additional capacity to hospitals.

hmmm

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure if this was posted earlier but bemusement and anger at the dining passport idea in government.

It only fell from the sky if you were completely naive and more interested in vague notions of "fairness" than actual practical solutions to keep businesses open during a pandemic.

Crocodile tears the lot of them. We could have opened pubs and restaurants weeks ago to vaccinated people. Israel showed the way months ago.

Larbre34

Sounds like a volte face may be in the offing as regards this daft notion of declaring your vaccine status to restaurants. Regina Doherty and Alan Kelly both agreeing that even cabinet members are enraged.

More than that, there are quite obvious legal questions around it, does the Attorney General even sit at cabinet anymore??

seamus

amandstu wrote: »

This on the RTE (Fergal Bowers) page.Anyone explain what that means?

The warning is that while infections would occur largely in younger, unvaccinated people, as the force of infection grows, significant numbers would also be seen in older, vaccinated people"

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0629/1232066-nphet-view-of-covid-threat/

So this is in relation to herd immunity. Herd immunity only works when it's across the entire population.

There are about 1.25 million people over 60 or otherwise vulnerable. If they're 100% vaccinated, there are still some for this group for whom vaccination doesn't work, about 5%, I think. That's 62,500 people.

Herd immunity works because if that was the whole population, the odds of one of those 62k people becoming infected and passing it onto one of the other 62k, is pretty small.
But that's not the whole population. If we say that there are 2m younger people who are not vaccinated (about 50%), than that 62k vulnerable people are completely exposed to those 2m unvaccinated. As the infection numbers grow in that 2m, the odds of one of the vulnerable becoming infected, increase.

So it's not a case that we can just let loose with the infection in younger people. There would be a knock-on effect to older/vulnerable cohorts. We have to achieve herd immunity across the entire adult population, or at least achieve significant coverage all the way down to the young adults.

is_that_so

hmmm wrote: »

It only fell from the sky if you were completely naive and more interested in vague notions of "fairness" than actual practical solutions to keep businesses open during a pandemic.

Crocodile tears the lot of them. We could have opened pubs and restaurants weeks ago to vaccinated people. Israel showed the way months ago.

In the article, which you clearly didn't read, it points out it is (now was) government policy not to use them domestically but you did get to page 9 of NPHET's letter!

timmyntc

hmmm wrote: »

It only fell from the sky if you were completely naive and more interested in vague notions of "fairness" than actual practical solutions to keep businesses open during a pandemic.

Crocodile tears the lot of them. We could have opened pubs and restaurants weeks ago to vaccinated people. Israel showed the way months ago.

Denmark and Germany have something similar in place, only they also allow a negative antigen test, alongside proof of recovery and proof of vaccination.
That is fair, and workable.

You're right, we could have done that months ago - but we didnt. Because NPHET dont like antigen testing, despite it proving very effective all across the continent.

Doctor Jimbob

hmmm wrote: »

I haven't a clue, what would you do?

And not something vague about improving the system, what solution could we implement in the next 3 or 4 weeks? (other than suspending all elective admissions).

My point isn't that someone should magic up a solution in a few weeks, that would be unreasonable. It's that at some point, we have to accept that our hospitals will be under pressure sometimes.

Rayne Wooney

Every adult in the country will be fully vaccinated by the 13th of September, assuming they actually want one.

This is a complete shambles by all involved, NPHET, Martin and Co. Nobody will ever be held accountable for this either, we are watching a car accident unfolding right before our eyes.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

The letter discusses this. We still have a significant group of more vulnerable people who haven't received their second vaccination, so they become at risk if there is a significant spread in younger groups.

"(75% of 60-69 year olds and & 46% 50-59 year olds have not yet received
second dose; cohort 7 not yet complete)"

Hopefully most of them will be vaccinated over the next few weeks.

That's some incredible ineptitude for the 50-59 years olds to be so far ahead of the 60-69 years olds at this stage.