Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

h2005

Barry Cowan abdicating any responsibility. Like he’s not in government. Absolute joker.

Amirani

h2005 wrote: »

Barry Cowan abdicating any responsibility. Like he’s not in government. Absolute joker.

He's not part of the Government.

h2005

Amirani wrote: »

He's not part of the Government.

He’s not a minister but he’s propping up this ****ing **** show. He’d be a minister if he knew the rules of the road.

Polar101

I'm not a government minister either, but if I were, I'd have thought of possible scenarios and what kind of a response should be implemented.

Such as
1) open up indoor hospitability
2) delay opening indoor hospitability by 2 weeks
3) open up indoor hospitability for vaccinated people
etc..

The Irish government only thought about 1 and 2 it seems. There's been plenty of time to come up with solutions on how other options could be implemented.

giveitholly

In general the weather has been very good for outdoor dining for the whole month of June,especially in the eastern half of the country where most of the population live. A lot of people have been able to enjoy themselves to a certain degree. The forecast from friday onwards looks a lot more unsettled. Somehow I think people won't be enjoying themselves as much and this will only add to the frustrations

Klonker

NPHET really needed someone on to explain that modelling tonight. I think it speaks volumes that they didn't.

Like does it include vaccine uptake from now onwards? If it does does it include previous projections before AZ and J&J were approved for under 40s? Why wasn't there any projections done on a delay of reopening for 2 weeks? We know now we're not opening up until 19th July at earliest so the modelling is already redundant.

I honestly think they should just open up. We have the UK a month ahead of us. If things get crazy there (not just case numbers) we'll have time to put on the breaks but I doubt it'll be needed.

lucernarian

seamus wrote: »

In effect, all discrimination is perfectly legal if it can be established that there is good reason for it.

A business can refuse to serve a disabled person, or a pregnant woman, or a muslim, or whatever, if they can show good reason why serving that person is not physically possible or otherwise cannot be accommodated due to the nature of the business.

The fact that someone cannot access a vaccine immediately, does not automatically make discrimination against them illegal. Nor does it make it unethical, especially when there is a reasonable alternative (outside) available to them.

The are no major legal ramifications to restricting indoor dining on a temporary basis, to vaccinated people only.

That's all a bit of a red herring. This is nothing AT ALL to do with the legal right of businesses to decide who they serve in particular circumstances.

What is being proposed is a legal mandate to discriminate against particular people, who are unable to avoid this status due to the nature of the vaccine rollout. Countless businesses that cannot open due to the impracticability of outdoor seating etc, and their customers, are affected by this. It's not that there is a right being established to deny customer service to the unvaccinated (where your comparison would make sense) but an explicit removal of rights against a group of people who are unable to reasonably meet the requirements of the proposed measures. That is clearly and obviously legally dubious, and for good reason.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

You can easily find 20 year old people, double vaccinated but recovered from cancer or HIV positive, as such their immune response to vaccines would be extremely low. The chances of them contracting covid, being hospitalised and dying would be higher, despite being vaccinated. It would be incorrect to use that as proof vaccine efficency is lower in younger people.

really?? the trials are done on healthy people with an ideal profile, so no one with high blood pressure, diabetes, high obesity, history of Cancer, currently using antidepressants, on statins and of course over 65 in the case of the AZ vaccine which the germans rubbished due to lack of that chorort in the studies.
This is done because that will feck up your study and you're more likely to get side effects , drop outs and bad results etc.

Now consider that many many people in the world have these ailments and if the media is to be believed, 1 in 2 will have cancer at some point I can personally see a pox of a blobagram for these vaccines and Andrew marr is 100% just the one that spoke up. Plus if 40% don't know they have and that 40% are younger, it's easy to chalk up high efficacy just because they had the jab when in fact they were never in danger or even symptomatic in the first instance.

bottom line, the elderly and compromised are jabbed for all that will do, lets get back to Normal, not a new normal as marketed by the media. anything less than life before covid is ABNORMAL.

Zebra3

h2005 wrote: »

He’s not a minister but he’s propping up this ****ing **** show. He’d be a minister if he knew the rules of the road.

Oh, he knew them all right.

But they’re for the little people as far he’s concerned.

Still too cowardly now to do the right thing and call out this this absolute sham.

His pension will be ok I guess.

normanoffside

wadacrack wrote: »

Were quite accurate around Christmas. Other times not so much as restrictions were brought in.

Anyway no point arguing. Been over this at certain points before. I value medical opinions rather than some random posters on boards.

The most important things is to get this vaccine rolled out and hopefully we can move on past this awful time. But its not over yet sadly.

This is an often told lie.
NPHET models had the numbers at 500-600 cases/day by January in a worst case scenario. In actual fact they were taken by shock and we were getting 8000+ positive swabs a day by the end of December. The counting and validation system collapsed along with the contact tracing system. The end of December numbers had to be added into January numbers as the spent a few weeks counting them back and validating.
NPHET were completely taken by surprise.

That’s not to mention the fact that they had us on a 6 week lockdown in the run in to Christmas to give us a meaningful Christmas. Their models had us at under 100 by early December to allow this to go ahead and it never happened.

In short NPHET models have always been wrong, underestimate in winter and overestimate at other times. They don’t take seasonality into any account and continue to refuse to factor it in. They blame their miscalculations on people’s behaviour rather than their own faulty models.

normanoffside

ednwireland wrote: »

https://twitter.com/earnestobob/status/1409819198012993538?s=19

https://twitter.com/earnestobob/status/1409912646980284420?s=19

no idea if this is legit

Yes. marmalade Max on Twitter discussed this model months ago and critiqued it.
The Author of that model is a statistics student who previously used another statistical model to determine the best snooker player ever.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0318/1204649-snooker-greatest-player-of-all-time/


(For those wondering it showed it to be a john Higgins)

Week before restrictions due to be lifted, we get Tony tweeting, Favier on the radio, Nolan usually having Twitter rants (not this time thankfully).

After more delays, their models being rightfully questioned, they are nowhere to be seen. You’d think if they’re about to bring down a whole sector, they could at least explain themselves.

But no. Cowards, just like Micheal and his pretend government. History won’t look kindly on this era of “leaders”.

Arghus

I wish I could give my crystal ball a polish so I could say something about what's going to happen over the next while - because, right now, I haven't got a fcking clue.

Jinglejangle69

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I also see 3 elephants in the room and at least 2 directly relate a certain persons personality. One, maybe two, we’re not allowed speak about.

1. Tony and NPHET’s disdain at antigen testing. A vaccine passport could potentially work with a negative antigen test accepted. However, we won’t entertain this and the Passport will likely fail on a number of grounds if it even gets to the courts. (It won’t). It’s clear they will lockdown again before considering antigens as a tool to reopen schools, colleges and hospitality.

2. NPHET and it’s many members relationship with alcohol. Lest we forget, days into Ireland’s pandemic, Tony hosted an anti alcohol conference. Coupled with a push for MUP, constant comments from Dr Favier with regards to alcohol, and Tony’s tweets, there is a clear disdain towards alcohol.

3. What I see as the major elephant in the room, Tony’s personality. Even tonight, the examiner reporting that he lobbed this grenade on purpose, knowing he wouldn’t be challenged. Tony has a reputation to restore. Every time a cervical scandal survivor or sufferer speaks or wins a court settlement, questions linger about Tony’s much maligned role in the scandal. There is no doubt he has taken charge of Covid, is it to improve his standing? This post will probably be deleted or banned because you are not allowed to mention cervical check scandal in here. But IMO, it’s deeply relevant with regards to his current strongman behaviour.

Or his personal bereavement recently.

Is he in a proper state of mind to be making such important decisions?

Jinglejangle69

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Or his personal bereavement recently.

Is he in a proper state of mind to be making such important decisions?

I wouldn’t go there to be fair, his decision there and his alone.

But his history as CMO during certain scandals is definitely something to be questioned with regards to his behaviour.

Jinglejangle69

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I wouldn’t go there to be fair, his decision there and his alone.

But his history as CMO during certain scandals is definitely something to be questioned with regards to his behaviour.

I'm sorry but he is making decisions that affect 6 million people.

And clearly after today most of those 6 million have no idea why he has made those decisions.

Decisions that is a matter of people putting food on the table and paying their mortgage and rent.

I have every right to question his state of mind at the moment.

A gard would ask the same, it's just logic.

PTH2009

Normal One wrote: »

I made a remark on Monday that Tony would have his revenge for S William St, I wasn’t joking, he was widely ridiculed and he was not going to let that go.

He was watching the riot guards with batons his office on multiple TVs ala like Mr Burns

PuddingBreath

How do we prove we recovered from coof in the last 9 month?

PuddingBreath

PuddingBreath wrote: »

How do we prove we recovered from coof in the last 9 month?

An antibody test.

For a nominal fee of course..

.42.

We are not going to get a large increase in positive COVID cases as people who received even 1 vaccine will not bother going to get tested.

Also the majority of people who were ending up in hospital, ICU and passing away are most likely fully vaccinated by mid July.

It looks from the outside that NPHET’s advice and predictions don’t take any of the above into account and are based on a model from last winter before vaccinations.

.42.

.42. wrote: »

We are not going to get a large increase in positive COVID cases as people who received even 1 vaccine will not bother going to get tested.

Also the majority of people who were ending up in hospital, ICU and passing away are most likely fully vaccinated by mid July.

It looks from the outside that NPHET’s advice and predictions don’t take any of the above into account and are based on a model from last winter before vaccinations.

I read that the model is a model made by a statistics student who used it to work out the greatest snooker player ever. Surely not?

wadacrack

Seems to be alot of mis information about indoor dining.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1409987689840103424

FintanMcluskey

wadacrack wrote: »

Seems to be alot of mis information about indoor dining.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1409987689840103424

A lot of disingenuous information alright

Would my of those countries in that tweet use antigen testing to allow indoor dining???

iamwhoiam

So how will they figure out if tourists have had a vaccine ? Not every country will have a digital pass I presume ? Or will they just wave a card in a foreign language ?

FintanMcluskey

Shane Coleman on newstalk today alluding to nPHEt having no credibility

Shane Coleman on newstalk in May “if we open inter county travel in Ireland we could end up like India”

Pathetic journalism

duffman13

Someone alluded to it on the radio yesterday but does anyone know if the off the wall projections by NPHET were based on current restriction levels or based on the reopening of indoor dining and the other reduction in restrictions due on 5th of July? The insinuation was it was based on current restrictions

duffman13

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Shane Coleman on newstalk today alluding to nPHEt having no credibility

Shane Coleman on newstalk in May “if we open inter county travel in Ireland we could end up like India”

Pathetic journalism

Only yesterday he was saying we have to follow what we are told. His credibility over the last two years has taken a serious nose dive with constant changing of opinions based on public response

is_that_so

duffman13 wrote: »

Someone alluded to it on the radio yesterday but does anyone know if the off the wall projections by NPHET were based on current restriction levels or based on the reopening of indoor dining and the other reduction in restrictions due on 5th of July? The insinuation was it was based on current restrictions

There was mention of the NPHET letter earlier and they seem to have picked a base of about 450 in ICU to keep adding numbers to.

is_that_so

duffman13 wrote: »

Only yesterday he was saying we have to follow what we are told. His credibility over the last two years has taken a serious nose dive with constant changing of opinions based on public response

There is a level of that but when you get decisions like that over the last 48 hours it's natural to respond to it and these numbers do make you question what they are doing with their models.

podgeandrodge

People need to remember the surge following the recent opening hotels for indoor dining and drinking. Not to mention the other absolutely shocking surge following Sth William St.

Joking aside, what are people's main view on here about the best alternative. Most agree this has gone too far. But what would people propose? It's probably clear enough that opening up to all would cause increase cases - but most seem to agree that these would be in younger people who are not as much at risk. Then there are the 50% vaccinated over 60's at the moment - could Delta at this point cause dramatic increases in hospitalisations in these people? We all agree that talk about new apps is unworkable, there'd be a lot of agro. Trust system is dubious.

When are over 60's fully vaccinated? At that point, really there is no argument. I'm not arguing that the deferral was correct, just now that it is made, asking what factors should end this for once and for all. Some other countries are asking fully vaccinated people from UK to quarantine - what is that about!

As for those crazy predictions........