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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP
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Going on holiday in ireland with extended family. We are in an airbnb and they’re in a hotel. They can all go for dinner inside. I cant.
However if I got myself added to a siblings room for the night I can go for dinner? Wtaf? It’s like it’s all about the money…
I’m fully vaccinated. They aren’t all fully done. This is completely mental.0 -
goingnowhere wrote: »I think they have the graph upside-down.
Cases continue to collapse in mainline Europe if you ignore Spain/Portugal.
Austria reported 29 cases yesterday and they have almost twice our population, but you cannot eat indoors without proof of a test/vaccination there. Hungary is down to 34 cases.
So basically its safer leave the country than stay here...
That’s mad.
Hungary have been packing over 60,000 in to their national football stadium and have an incredibly low number of cases.
So this weekend we’ll have sports stadia all around the country mostly empty, and why?
Because, Antony Says!!!0 -
Loafing Oaf wrote: »Let's assume the current government goes the distance and the pandemic and lockdown are firmly behind us. Would you still?
Absolutely, the Government handed power to an elected body whose sole focus was only Covid. They proceeded to hide behind this body of doctors for every decision, statement and interview they gave in relation to restrictions since May 2020. They have failed to take into account the serious ramifications of the restrictions, which grow more serious as each day passes.
Furthermore they are accepting the modelling at face value, without any verification methods or independent analysis, and according to Stephen Donnelly yesterday - 'this has always been the way with the NPHET modelling' - modelling which is deciding who can work, who can't, who can live, who can't. This is incredibly serious.
We need people in charge who are willing to take the lead - listen to the public health advice and decide on broader terms after consultation with other bodies re consequences of their actions.
It's as clear as day now from the events of the last few days - Dr Tony is firmly in charge - no one gets to make any decisions only our great master and commander who must surely have Kim Jong Un and his pal Denis Rodman on speed dial at this stage.
What was incredibly insulting to people also in the last two weeks was watching NPHET all sitting in close quarters, no masks on - even when they not speaking while appearing via video link to the Oireachtas Committee. The group deciding indoors for eating / drinking will be a catastrophe spent at least 1.5 hours or more indoors in close quarters not wearing masks / distancing or acting like there was any Covid in existence. This gives out the message - one rule for the peasants but not for us all important super powerful unelected body.0 -
Fred Astaire wrote: »Big day tomorrow everybody - the 1st of July.
We will finally be able to see if NPHET's round of modelling for July was accurate and maybe that will help us see if their modelling this time is worth listening to.
What was the prediction for July again? Oh right, 7000 cases a day. Yep, 7000.
Fergal Bowers on May 1st - "NPHET modelling to Govt this week suggested Covid-19 cases could rise to 7,000 a day in July if there was a significant increase in social contacts."
I missed that the first time around. Jesus tapdancing chríst0 -
funnydoggy wrote: »I missed that the first time around. Jesus tapdancing chríst
And that was before the Delta.
Recut their numbers with the delta factor and we should be on about 20000 cases today.
Shows how bad NPHET are.0 -
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CruelSummer wrote: »Absolutely, the Government handed power to an elected body whose sole focus was only Covid. They proceeded to hide behind this body of doctors for every decision, statement and interview they gave in relation to restrictions since May 2020. They have failed to take into account the serious ramifications of the restrictions, which grow more serious as each day passes.
Furthermore they are accepting the modelling at face value, without any verification methods or independent analysis, and according to Stephen Donnelly yesterday - 'this has always been the way with the NPHET modelling' - modelling which is deciding who can work, who can't, who can live, who can't. This is incredibly serious.
We need people in charge who are willing to take the lead - listen to the public health advice and decide on broader terms after consultation with other bodies re consequences of their actions.
It's as clear as day now from the events of the last few days - Dr Tony is firmly in charge - no one gets to make any decisions only our great master and commander who must surely have Kim Jong Un and his pal Denis Rodman on speed dial at this stage.
What was incredibly insulting to people also in the last two weeks was watching NPHET all sitting in close quarters, no masks on - even when they not speaking while appearing via video link to the Oireachtas Committee. The group deciding indoors for eating / drinking will be a catastrophe spent at least 1.5 hours or more indoors in close quarters not wearing masks / distancing or acting like there was any Covid in existence. This gives out the message - one rule for the peasants but not for us all important super powerful unelected body.
But what relevance do you see this stuff as having going forward, is what I what I was mainly asking? Do you envisage 'public health experts' having a major influence on government policy post-pandemic?
You may be still so angry that you will wish to retrospectively punish the government parties for their (mis) handling of the pandemic at the next election, but I don't believe many voters think like that.0 -
Mr Ryan agreed that Nphet had been clear the system must be enforceable rather than advisory.
But he added: “It’s not their job to actually make it enforceable and the reality of that is something that Government have to consider and have to make happen.
So now these unelected muppets want to lay down laws to keep us suppressed. This just gets more ridiculous.0 -
CruelSummer wrote: »Absolutely, the Government handed power to an elected body whose sole focus was only Covid. They proceeded to hide behind this body of doctors for every decision, statement and interview they gave in relation to restrictions since May 2020. They have failed to take into account the serious ramifications of the restrictions, which grow more serious as each day passes.
Furthermore they are accepting the modelling at face value, without any verification methods or independent analysis, and according to Stephen Donnelly yesterday - 'this has always been the way with the NPHET modelling' - modelling which is deciding who can work, who can't, who can live, who can't. This is incredibly serious.
We need people in charge who are willing to take the lead - listen to the public health advice and decide on broader terms after consultation with other bodies re consequences of their actions.
It's as clear as day now from the events of the last few days - Dr Tony is firmly in charge - no one gets to make any decisions only our great master and commander who must surely have Kim Jong Un and his pal Denis Rodman on speed dial at this stage.
What was incredibly insulting to people also in the last two weeks was watching NPHET all sitting in close quarters, no masks on - even when they not speaking while appearing via video link to the Oireachtas Committee. The group deciding indoors for eating / drinking will be a catastrophe spent at least 1.5 hours or more indoors in close quarters not wearing masks / distancing or acting like there was any Covid in existence. This gives out the message - one rule for the peasants but not for us all important super powerful unelected body.
100% and the irony is simply this : when you used your vote to elect whomever, that was democracy..that same democratic right is being handed to a body who was not elected. they changed Gov policy overnight and hence, DICTATE what happens in Ireland. The can wheel out any figures they like because nobody can question their methods or motives. Just because a man wears a white coat doesn't mean his character and advice are unquestionable.
Look at Tonys role in ahem..other scandals..he never had the patients true interest at heart, why would that change at all. I think the last 24hrs have shown them up as utterly contemptuous and insulting to the people of Ireland, both the elected and UNelected so called experts.
and some posters are correct, we have slid into the realm of conspiracy here now, that's the scary part..life now imitating science fiction.0 -
Fred Astaire wrote: »Big day tomorrow everybody - the 1st of July.
We will finally be able to see if NPHET's round of modelling for July was accurate and maybe that will help us see if their modelling this time is worth listening to.
What was the prediction for July again? Oh right, 7000 cases a day. Yep, 7000.
Fergal Bowers on May 1st - "NPHET modelling to Govt this week suggested Covid-19 cases could rise to 7,000 a day in July if there was a significant increase in social contacts."
I'm sure they will defend it by saying there was only a modest increase in social contacts (social contacts have remained low)
So all their modelling is based off Xmas levels of social contacts? We're all gonna be licking our unvaccinated grannies as soon as we test positive, the way they model!0 -
"If" doing the work there.Fred Astaire wrote: »Fergal Bowers on May 1st - "NPHET modelling to Govt this week suggested Covid-19 cases could rise to 7,000 a day in July if there was a significant increase in social contacts."
Here's the document you're referring to;
https://assets.gov.ie/133926/98409bf0-d6e5-4c60-b806-fdc8a0f554fc.pdf
They modelled 3 scenarios - opening outdoor hospitality/hotels in May, June, or July. The 7,000 a day you refer to was if hospitality was reopened in May. That didn't happen, so of course the scenario (#1) didn't play out.
The models in the above document are more sane, but nevertheless our current scenario (#2) predicted around ~500 cases/day by the start of July. So we're ahead of that and even below the confidence interval.
The model also predicted a sharp drop-off in cases starting around the end of July due to vaccinations. Which makes the more recent models even more confusing; Delta might be more transmissible, but not THAT transmissible.
The same document also reckoned we'd have twice as many people in hospital/ICU than we do right now.
Models are best-guesses, they're never going to be bang on target. They're good for guidance on what's most likely to happen next.
But when there's a 100% difference between the real-world outcome and the original forecast, you have to ask if your models were ever fit for purpose in the first place.0 -
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"If" doing the work there.
Here's the document you're referring to;
https://assets.gov.ie/133926/98409bf0-d6e5-4c60-b806-fdc8a0f554fc.pdf
They modelled 3 scenarios - opening outdoor hospitality/hotels in May, June, or July. The 7,000 a day you refer to was if hospitality was reopened in May. That didn't happen, so of course the scenario (#1) didn't play out.
The models in the above document are more sane, but nevertheless our current scenario (#2) predicted around ~500 cases/day by the start of July. So we're ahead of that and even below the confidence interval.
The model also predicted a sharp drop-off in cases towards the end of July. Which makes the more recent models even more confusing; Delta might be more transmissible, but not THAT transmissible.
The same document also reckoned we'd have twice as many people in hospital/ICU than we do right now.
Models are best-guesses, they're never going to be bang on target. They're good for guidance on what's most likely to happen next.
But when there's a 100% difference between the real-world outcome and the original forecast, you have to ask if your models were ever fit for purpose in the first place.
But it did open, takeaway pints were flying, huge crowds gathering, remember Tonys rant about Jones Road?
Hundreds of bins and toilets in Dublin and other areas to cater for the crowds.
And indoor house parties and gatherings have been continuing unabated since about Easter.
Its all going on and no cases. (Edit - no increase in cases)
Remember a few weeks ago the Limerick explosive multiplier effect, Tony meeting the politicians, local lockdowns etc.?
Where are Limericks cases today?
This is all pure ridiculous and NPHET are simply pulling farcical modelling predictions out of there rears.0 -
It's fit for NPHET's purpose though!"If" doing the work there.
Here's the document you're referring to;
https://assets.gov.ie/133926/98409bf0-d6e5-4c60-b806-fdc8a0f554fc.pdf
They modelled 3 scenarios - opening outdoor hospitality/hotels in May, June, or July. The 7,000 a day you refer to was if hospitality was reopened in May. That didn't happen, so of course the scenario (#1) didn't play out.
The models in the above document are more sane, but nevertheless our current scenario (#2) predicted around ~500 cases/day by the start of July. So we're ahead of that and even below the confidence interval.
The model also predicted a sharp drop-off in cases starting around the end of July due to vaccinations. Which makes the more recent models even more confusing; Delta might be more transmissible, but not THAT transmissible.
The same document also reckoned we'd have twice as many people in hospital/ICU than we do right now.
Models are best-guesses, they're never going to be bang on target. They're good for guidance on what's most likely to happen next.
But when there's a 100% difference between the real-world outcome and the original forecast, you have to ask if your models were ever fit for purpose in the first place.0 -
Models are best-guesses, they're never going to be bang on target. They're good for guidance on what's most likely to happen next.
But when there's a 100% difference between the real-world outcome and the original forecast, you have to ask if your models were ever fit for purpose in the first place.
I believe that Covid models are about as useful as weather forecasts for predictions, i.e. not at all in anything more than the short term. Seasonal modelling can be useful, in the same way that planning a foreign holiday should take account of climate, but that's about it. There is too much feedback and sensitivity to unmeasurable behavioural factors.
I would challenge anyone to design a model that fitted the pattern of outbreaks in various EU countries this summer with a degree of accuracy that could inform policy making to any useful degree.
It is better to design public policy from basic first principles that are insensitive to modelling. For instance:
- Limit communal indoor activities to those who are likely to be uninfected
- Enforce indoor wearing of masks that are useful to both wearer and others
- Encourage frequent and rapid testing, e.g. free rapid antigen testing
I don't need a model with confidence intervals to believe in those policies - they're screamingly obvious.
Mathematics is not the answer here.0 -
Its incredible that these models are actually being used to determine our countries policies.
There was never EVER going to be 7000 cases a day in July considering seasonality, data from last year, vaccinations etc.
We didn't have those numbers at Christmas. It was all backlog because the system failed and everybody was off on their Christmas holidays.
Those numbers really are nothing more than a bunch of doctors with a fetish for misery playing with their toy models0 -
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rusty cole wrote: »so according to Leo, t his system will be lawful. It's not now but when they pass the legislation, it will be..are they having a laugh??
It's currently unlawful to collect our first born but if you make it legal, then of course it is lawful, that's the point..where do we stop writing new draconian laws to seperate society, this is absolutely shocking stuff to read..
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/other/restricting-indoor-dining-to-vaccinated-people-will-be-lawful/ar-AALCczy?ocid=entnewsntp
You didn't even read the first sentence of the article.The Attorney General told the Government that restricting indoor dining to vaccinated people is “lawful” and does not breach constitutional rights, according to Leo Varadkar.
The issue was whether it would be unconstitutional or not and the Attorney General has clarified it.
Personally, I don't mind restricting access to things based on whether the person has been vaccinated or not. However, in this case, we have countless people across the country who would have bitten your hands off for a vaccine months ago but didn't and still don't have access to one. That just isn't fair.0 -
goingnowhere wrote: »The UK generated a perfect storm
1. Poor vaccination levels in minority groups
2. Left the door wide open to India for weeks and given the UK-India historical connections the UK was where people with money or family ran to, see 1
3. AZ as the primary vaccine, while a great vaccine you need to double dose to beat Delta and even then Pfizer has the edge
4. Dragged out the Pfizer schedule to 12 weeks as well
4. The UK attitude of over promise, they have gotten very lax on basic precautions and pubs are open and the next step is stage 0, every restriction gone. Utter madness
We are not in a great place but we are in a much better position.
1. Pfizer is the primary vaccine
2. Almost 100% take up across the entire population offered, ahead of almost the entire of Europe and this is what will save us as we will get very very close to 100% coverage in risk groups
3. We haven't gone mad with opening up
4. If the NHPET projections are based on the UK growth rates the projections are junk
Central Europe while mostly open as a few massive advantages
1. They have very low and failing case levels so Delta will take while to get stuck in
2. Mostly ahead of us in vaccinations but a small %
3. They eat outdoors in the Summer anyway...
4. Due to the hesitancy they opened up to all 18+ and this means you have more even distribution of vaccinated people which breaks the chain of transmission. Ireland probably has the lowest % of under 30's in the EU with a jab and the numbers show covid is running riot in the 18-25 age bracket.
So we are basically playing a herd immunity strategy for under 30's this Summer
The CMO in the UK Chris Whitty announced this morning that their full reopening will be going ahead on July 19th
His said hospitals can manage after their vaccination programme
You may want to try contact and show him your findings0 -
The big hole as I see it in Nphets modelling is that they are not factoring in the seasonal aspect of this virus.
Yes, it spreads year round, but in manageable clusters, like the Limerick situation a month ago....like we saw all last summer.
You'll get a load of cases with little or no impact on hospitalizations.
The human immune system is simply in a better condition to fight a virus during the summer months...0 -
“The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”
- Camille Paglia
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Mr Ryan agreed that Nphet had been clear the system must be enforceable rather than advisory.
But he added: “It’s not their job to actually make it enforceable and the reality of that is something that Government have to consider and have to make happen.
It can be mandated and "enforceable" in theory but it is unworkable in practice. Restaurants can't staff and stock for a busy night of reservations just to have to turn away tables where someone doesn't have their ID and cert with them. Staff are not going to want to be on the door IDing everyone coming in and asking about their medical history. They will get the brunt of everyone's frustrations for their ~ minimum wage. The idea of a 50 something walking up to a local pub to be stopped by some kid trying to make a few quid while in college looking for their ID and cert will not go well in this country and I'd argue it puts them at more risk of harm than the virus in some cases. To top it all off most of the staff serving you all night can't have a pint in the same place they've spent 8+ hours because it would be a huge risk to them to be in a pub for an hour or two.
I'm not a ooh NPHET are out to ruin the industry type. I've been supportive of most measures up to now with the exception of not letting people consent to vaccines with miniscule risk. I don't think this is all a big conspiracy. What I do think, and it is with my experience as someone in the industry almost 20 years, is this is an idea put forward by someone who has never worked hospitality in this country in their life. I have no bone in seeing indoor service open any sooner, I'm fine meeting a friend for pints outside, I'm just saying what I see.0 -
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Why does it work in other countries but not here?It can be mandated and "enforceable" in theory but it is unworkable in practice. Restaurants can't staff and stock for a busy night of reservations just to have to turn away tables where someone doesn't have their ID and cert with them. Staff are not going to want to be on the door IDing everyone coming in and asking about their medical history. They will get the brunt of everyone's frustrations for their ~ minimum wage. The idea of a 50 something walking up to a local pub to be stopped by some kid trying to make a few quid while in college looking for their ID and cert will not go well in this country and I'd argue it puts them at more risk of harm than the virus in some cases
People will have to go through this for foreign travel anyway. I'm not unaware of or insensitive to the precedent that this sets, but just writing it off as not implementable seems like selling the Irish people short.0 -
I wonder if a subsidized pcr test could be on the table. Have it valid for 72 hours similar to Denmark.0
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Why does it work in other countries but not here?
People will have to go through this for foreign travel anyway. I'm not unaware of or insensitive to the precedent that this sets, but just writing it off as not implementable seems like selling the Irish people short.
It can work, if peoples livelihoods depend on it they will make it work.
The goverment cant half ass it tho. Strict enforcement and harsh penalties for non compliance and the pubs/restaurants will follow suit.0 -
Travel is a choice, being able to sit in for a coffee is viewed as a more basic everyday activity. It also goes against the positive messaging of all together and is based off modelling of how people behaved at the Christmas. Let's not forget we managed the €9 protection for quite a while before that. Why would we behave that way in July when we never have before?Why does it work in other countries but not here?
People will have to go through this for foreign travel anyway. I'm not unaware of or insensitive to the precedent that this sets, but just writing it off as not implementable seems like selling the Irish people short.0 -
Yeah, mandatory prison sentences to boot!ginoginelli wrote: »It can work, if peoples livelihoods depend on it they will make it work.
The goverment cant half ass it tho. Strict enforcement and harsh penalties for non compliance and the pubs/restaurants will follow suit.0 -
Why does it work in other countries but not here?
People will have to go through this for foreign travel anyway. I'm not unaware of or insensitive to the precedent that this sets, but just writing it off as not implementable seems like selling the Irish people short.
I'd feel like I need a degree in group psychology or something to say why and I am no way selling Irish people short, we have a different culture and values, but we have some level of anti authoritarianism for a start. Then take the U.S., they are fine with everyone even if you're 60 producing ID to be served in pubs there. I worked in North America for a few years and no one bats an eyelid at being asked for ID. It isn't the same here, it is met with regular outrage if the patron is even 20 years old here! Table service is already something that works everywhere else but is a constant battle here with regulars "not wanting to make you walk over" (not wanting to wait for you to walk over).
If it gets brought in and it works and I don't hear of 20 something year olds being verbally abused by people for asking them to follow the rules and carry ID and certs with them or restaurants having fights with groups because one of them doesn't have them with them I'll be delighted and to borrow a phrase from the wonder Tim Minchin "You show me that it works and how it works and when I've recovered from the shock I will take a compass and carve 'Fancy That' on the side of my c**k"0 -
is_that_so wrote: »Travel is a choice, being able to sit in for a coffee is viewed as a more basic everyday activity. It also goes against the positive messaging of all together and is based off modelling of how people behaved at the Christmas. Let's not forget we managed the €9 protection for quite a while before that. Why would we behave that way in July when we never have before?
That doesn't address my question about why it works elsewhere but can't here.
Is "sitting in for a coffee" not considered a basic everyday activity in Berlin or Copenhagen?0 -
I'd feel like I need a degree in group psychology or something to say why and I am no way selling Irish people short, we have a different culture and values, but we have some level of anti authoritarianism for a start. Then take the U.S., they are fine with everyone even if you're 60 producing ID to be served in pubs there. I worked in North America for a few years and no one bats an eyelid at being asked for ID. It isn't the same here, it is met with regular outrage if the patron is even 20 years old here! Table service is already something that works everywhere else but is a constant battle here with regulars "not wanting to make you walk over" (not wanting to wait for you to walk over).
If it gets brought in and it works and I don't hear of 20 something year olds being verbally abused by people for asking them to follow the rules and carry ID and certs with them or restaurants having fights with groups because one of them doesn't have them with them I'll be delighted and to borrow a phrase from the wonder Tim Minchin "You show me that it works and how it works and when I've recovered from the shock I will take a compass and carve 'Fancy That' on the side of my c**k"
Agreed. Recipe for disaster . Kids requesting groups of adults leave because they have no proof of vaccination for their steak and chips .
It's nonsense0 -
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The critical difference is the inability for people to be tested negative to take part, while they cannot get access to vaccines themselves. This is an unprecedented move except I guess PR China, and even there, vaccines are available to the whole adult population. Is that the example you think we should follow?Why does it work in other countries but not here?
People will have to go through this for foreign travel anyway. I'm not unaware of or insensitive to the precedent that this sets, but just writing it off as not implementable seems like selling the Irish people short.0
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