Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

kennethsmyth

ginoginelli wrote: »

Same. Most people are just getting on with their lives. The outrage is mostly being whipped up by the mercentary media and the desperate vinters.

Then the usual lunatics on social media are doing what they always do - staring at their screen all day, searching for the latest thing to moan about.

This is how you demean any debate - play the ball not the man. If someone disagrees with your opinion it doesn't make them lunatics. Gemma D is definitely a mad mad person but that doesn't make other more reasonable persons opinions not worthy of debate.

ginoginelli

John.Icy wrote: »

Massive unemployment.
Businesses closed forever.
Young people missing out on huge parts of their lives in college.
Mental health issues.
Incoming disaster for illnesses such as cancer.
Debt that will absolutely cripple working people for years to come when we need to start paying back.

I'm no lunatic and am generally enjoying life lately but ffs. Wind your neck in. People have every right to be upset with things right now.

All relevant points that we should be worried about. The whole world is suffering because of the pandemic.

But keeping the pubs closed indoors until we can go there again safely again isnt exactly the same thing.

D.Q

Why do we think we're immune to some power hungry cretin attempting to take over

wadacrack

Thread that explains the modelling. Quite a few in here would benefit from reading it. Their will be a significant surge in August regardless of indoor dining. Hopefully hospitalizations are kept under relative control but it seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410315246791802884

Sweet.Science

seamus wrote: »

Every hotel outside of Dublin is completely booked out to September. Many hotels have little or no availability this side of Xmas.

Pubs and restaurants at the moment have a solid flow of customers in 7 nights a week.

They're flying it for now, but we need a more sustainable strategy once flights reopen and especially when we get to the end of the summer.

Agree on hotels . Mainly because we can't travel anywhere else and they are the only place you can dine indoors .

What pubs and restaurants have a solid flow of customers 7 days a week ? Let's forget a lot are closed since last year for a second

I'm genuinely intrigued .

I was walking along the Northside of town (Dublin) on Monday afternoon and there was a few stragglers outside pubs . The church on Henry St was busy .

I was in swords last night and it was empty . Few outside having drinks .

And that's our capital City, apparently places in rural Ireland are on their knees .

I expect the bigger fancier places in Dublin City will get by ok until September . They are a minority .

Hammer Archer

seamus wrote: »

Every hotel outside of Dublin is completely booked out to September. Many hotels have little or no availability this side of Xmas.

Pubs and restaurants at the moment have a solid flow of customers in 7 nights a week.

They're flying it for now, but we need a more sustainable strategy once flights reopen and especially when we get to the end of the summer.

Must tell the owner of my local that's been closed all year because they don't have any room for outdoors that actually he has a solid flow of customers 7 nights a week.

Sweet.Science

wadacrack wrote: »

Thread that explains the modelling. Quite a few in here would benefit from reading it. Their will be a significant surge in August regardless of indoor dining. Hopefully hospitalizations are kept under relative control but it seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410315246791802884

If this is to believed there should be level 5 lockdowns .

So why isn't there ?

pc7

fly_agaric wrote: »

So attack nasty NPHET or whatever but that's reality of the situation. If they do take a risk and just open it all up now and it results in (another) mess, you can just keep your heads down for a wee while and stop venting your spleen about Evil Dr Tony here till it blows over, but the govt. (+ NPHET) will be ones owning it in the end!

If they had of come out and said bear with us, give us until the 19th of July to really push forward with AZ second doses and to finish cohort 7, I really think people could have gotten on board with that.

But to come out with the most ridiculous models, scaring already scared elderly, treating us like kids and with contempt with threats already of schools etc. it is horrific.

Bsharp

seamus wrote: »

Every hotel outside of Dublin is completely booked out to September. Many hotels have little or no availability this side of Xmas.

Pubs and restaurants at the moment have a solid flow of customers in 7 nights a week.

They're flying it for now, but we need a more sustainable strategy once flights reopen and especially when we get to the end of the summer.

And the weather changes, next week looks awful.

wadacrack

wadacrack wrote: »

Thread that explains the modelling. Quite a few in here would benefit from reading it. Their will be a significant surge in August regardless of indoor dining. Hopefully hospitalizations are kept under relative control but it seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410315246791802884

A 36 tweet Twitter thread still doesn’t make him right. He’s done this before with some of his off the wall modelling. And when anyone questions him (Dr Jack Lambert for one), they get a Twitter rant.

Accidentally

seamus wrote: »

The kind of businesses we're talking about are well used to this. People booking a table for 12 and when they show up, they're 16 and they try to order 3 pizzas between them.
Or one guy books a table, shows ID that he's 18 and tries to buy booze for all his underage mates hiding in the snug.

When the rules are clear, people don't get annoyed that a business follows them. And the kind of customer who gets pissed off that you won't break the rules for them are more trouble than they're worth. Pubs and restaurants know this.

Hospitality is doing a roaring trade at the moment. Some gobsheen who abandons a table because he thought the pub would do him a favour, will be quickly replaced by a walk-in customer.

Sorry Seamus, I don't know what your local experience is, but for the country this is not true. There are a huge number of businesses in the hospitality industry who are either completely shut down or operating at a much reduced rate. I hear hotels in Dublin aren't exactly celebrating either.

Itssoeasy

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Agree on hotels . Mainly because we can't travel anywhere else and they are the only place you can dine indoors .

What pubs and restaurants have a solid flow of customers 7 days a week ? Let's forget a lot are closed since last year for a second

I'm genuinely intrigued .

I was walking along the Northside of town (Dublin) on Monday afternoon and there was a few stragglers outside pubs . The church on Henry St was busy .

I was in swords last night and it was empty . Few outside having drinks .

And that's our capital City, apparently places in rural Ireland are on their knees .

I expect the bigger fancier places in Dublin City will get by ok until September . They are a minority .

Any pub that has a bit of space to have customers outside must be thanking their patron saints because it allows them to do some trade while lots of pubs don’t have that luxury so are stuck closed until there’s some way that everyone can agree will work is found.

zackory

seamus wrote: »

Pubs and restaurants at the moment have a solid flow of customers in 7 nights a week.

That's simply untrue. In an area near me, of the 6 pubs, 2 are busy the other 4 are closed.

In limerick City the ones with beer gardens, river views etc., are busy, but others with just a couple of tables and umbrellas on the street or down an alley are struggling, even at best they might fit 20 to 30 customers.

Zebra3

seamus wrote: »

Every hotel outside of Dublin is completely booked out to September. Many hotels have little or no availability this side of Xmas.

Pubs and restaurants at the moment have a solid flow of customers in 7 nights a week.

They're flying it for now, but we need a more sustainable strategy once flights reopen and especially when we get to the end of the summer.

Head in the sand. Well done.

How are all those pubs closed for over a year doing?

Businesses have a steady flow of customers with severely restricted capacity? Wow.

Hotels doing a great trade because their rivals are being discriminated against. Isn’t that wonderful news?

Sweet.Science

@seamus

Are you a civil servant ? Or related to someone from NPHET / government ?

It's the only way I can understand your stance on certain things

AdamD

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

If this is the case then what's the end game? These people are vaccinated, if they are still vulnerable now then they will still be vulnerable in 4/6/8/12 months time. When do we move on from restrictions?

corcaigh07

ginoginelli wrote: »

That's a massive reason why we have to be so restrictive in this country. Many pubs and restaurants just wont adhere to the rules unless there is severe consequences for not doing so.

We saw it at christmas, places were jam packed, table service abandoned, no enforcment on masks.

Many in hospitality are their own worst enemy and spoiling it on the others.

Absolute nonsense, cases went sky high due to house visits across different generations all over the country at a bad time season wise with no jabs in our arms.

wadacrack

Deleted User wrote: »

A 36 tweet Twitter thread still doesn’t make him right. He’s done this before with some of his off the wall modelling. And when anyone questions him (Dr Jack Lambert for one), they get a Twitter rant.

He's more qualified than anyone on here . Models have been similar in other countries.

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

If this is the case then what's the end game? These people are vaccinated, if they are still vulnerable now then they will still be vulnerable in 4/6/8/12 months time. When do we move on from restrictions?

Until nphet are told “thanks, that’s you done”, and as a nation we talk about acceptable risk, there’s no end game.

zackory

wadacrack wrote: »

He's more qualified than anyone on here . Models have been similar in other countries.

How do you know what any of our qualifications are?

Bsharp

wadacrack wrote: »

Thread that explains the modelling. Quite a few in here would benefit from reading it. Their will be a significant surge in August regardless of indoor dining. Hopefully hospitalizations are kept under relative control but it seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410315246791802884

Good stuff, had a skim through first and this stuck out;

'A disadvantage of these models is that they assume homogeneous mixing, so any member of the population is assumed equally likely to transmit to any other member of the population, but we know that in reality we mix within age groups, social structures and communities'

To me this infers they're modelling in a vacuum, with no allowance for how society operates or behaves in the real world. It explains how they can get a worse case scenario; which is next to impossible to justify when you think of day to day life as present in Ireland.

Will have to have a good read on a big screen and see if they've provided more data on assumptions as opposed to just the base models.

For example, take the majority of towns and villages across Ireland which have populations under 50,000. If everyone above 50 is fully vaccinated by the end of July, others with first doses or already have covid, how does the chain of transmission work over the 3 months to produce the worst case scenario results for hospitalisations and deaths?

Turtwig

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Until nphet are told “thanks, that’s you done”, and as a nation we talk about acceptable risk, there’s no end game.

Orrr
Everyone around the vulnerable is vaccinated minimising the vulnerable's risk of exposure to a breakthrough infection.

zackory

Turtwig wrote: »

Orrr
Everyone around the vulnerable is vaccinated minimising the vulnerable's risk of exposure to a breakthrough infection.

Yeah but the epsilom variant will be on at some stage and be more vaccine resistant.

pc7

AdamD wrote: »

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

If this is the case then what's the end game? These people are vaccinated, if they are still vulnerable now then they will still be vulnerable in 4/6/8/12 months time. When do we move on from restrictions?

Does it take into account people already infected? Surely that brings things down now too

Messi19

wadacrack wrote: »

He's more qualified than anyone on here . Models have been similar in other countries.

How's his qualified opinion from about 8 weeks ago that we'd be hitting 7000 cases a day in June if people increased their contacts? Tomorrow is June

AdamD

Turtwig wrote: »

Orrr
Everyone around the vulnerable is vaccinated minimising the vulnerable's risk of exposure to a breakthrough infection.

This is what I would have thought too but if they're expecting hundreds of thousands of more cases in spite of vaccination rates, are they expecting vaccines to reduce case numbers at all? We could need the entire population vaccinating to remove restrictions if this is the line of thinking, including children.

zackory

Messi19 wrote: »

How's his qualified opinion from about 8 weeks ago that we'd be hitting 7000 cases a day in June if people increased their contacts? Tomorrow is June

Its in the toilet.

wadacrack

Messi19 wrote: »

How's his qualified opinion from about 8 weeks ago that we'd be hitting 7000 cases a day in June if people increased their contacts? Tomorrow is June

Contacts have not increased that much.

Speak Now

Messi19 wrote: »

How's his qualified opinion from about 8 weeks ago that we'd be hitting 7000 cases a day in June if people increased their contacts? Tomorrow is June

Today is June, tomorrow is July

zackory

wadacrack wrote: »

Contacts have not increased that much.

What?

Everywhere I go people are mixing and gathering without caution.

Did you miss Tonys Jones Road rant?