Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

D.Q

Wouldn't bother engaging with the delta variant fan club haha

rm212

AdamD wrote: »

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

If this is the case then what's the end game? These people are vaccinated, if they are still vulnerable now then they will still be vulnerable in 4/6/8/12 months time. When do we move on from restrictions?

That’s not how 95% effectiveness works, it doesn’t mean that 25,000 PEOPLE are vulnerable… it’s not as if the vaccine doesn’t work at all for 5% of people. Everybody is protected to a very high standard with these vaccinations; what he means to say is that if the vaccines are 95% effective, then there is a potential scenario in which 25,000 could catch the virus.

That’s still quite flawed however, as it would assume that every single person in the 500,000 are going to be exposed to the virus and 95% will be “saved” by the their vaccine. This hypothetical scenario would be more or less the equivalent of every single vulnerable person catching COVID during one of the previous waves, when there was no protection from vaccines (ie. even in the worst case scenario, it could never happen). It seems disingenuous then for him to claim that “25000 people remain vulnerable”.

I’m surprised someone with such supposed advanced qualifications would come out and say something so inaccurate about how vaccine efficacy rates work. The man’s job is to be scientifically accurate.

Turtwig

AdamD wrote: »

This is what I would have thought too but if they're expecting hundreds of thousands of more cases in spite of vaccination rates, are they expecting vaccines to reduce case numbers at all? We could need the entire population vaccinating to remove restrictions if this is the line of thinking, including children.

That looks to be the primary difference between alpha and delta. Alpha our vaccines prevented symptomatic infection. Delta they're not as good. They still prevent severe illness! (Thank God!) Trouble is if vaccines are less effective at preventing infection then you need more of the population vaccinated than you would have for a more effective vaccine.

In about six weeks the UK should be able to answer this. Fingers crossed it's a positive answer.

TheDoctor

wadacrack wrote: »

Contacts have not increased that much.

That prediction was made in March.

Contacts have increased massively since then.

Pubs open, more shops open, more offices open.

.42.

NPHET



Government



Around and around we go.

wadacrack

TheDoctor wrote: »

That prediction was made in March.

Contacts have increased massively since then.

Pubs open, more shops open, more offices open.

Not according to the data published

Messi19

Speak Now wrote: »

Today is June, tomorrow is July

Damn you haha. You know what I meant!

CruelSummer

wadacrack wrote: »

Thread that explains the modelling. Quite a few in here would benefit from reading it. Their will be a significant surge in August regardless of indoor dining. Hopefully hospitalizations are kept under relative control but it seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410315246791802884

I’ve read it.
What is your opinion on this tweet?

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1410320834342932483?s=21

He’s basically saying that even when fully vaccinated the over 70s are still at risk & is attempting to justify further lockdowns & restrictions on the back of a group - fully vaccinated at 100% uptake.

Messi19

wadacrack wrote: »

Contacts have not increased that much.

Hahahahahahahahahaha. Literally everyone has increased their contacts bar those living in a bunker

TheDoctor

wadacrack wrote: »

Not according to the data published

Well my eyes and personal experiences in the largest city in the country the last few weeks say different

Coillte_Bhoy

seamus wrote: »

Every hotel outside of Dublin is completely booked out to September. Many hotels have little or no availability this side of Xmas.

Pubs and restaurants at the moment have a solid flow of customers in 7 nights a week.

They're flying it for now, but we need a more sustainable strategy once flights reopen and especially when we get to the end of the summer.

Utter nonsense, honestly why do you bother eh?

Wolf359f

CruelSummer wrote: »

I’ve read it.
What is your opinion on this tweet?

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1410320834342932483?s=21

He’s basically saying that even when fully vaccinated the over 70s are still at risk & is attempting to justify further lockdowns & restrictions on the back of a group - fully vaccinated at 100% uptake.

He's assuming a 100% spread into all over 70's, which is complete bull****.

wadacrack

TheDoctor wrote: »

Well my eyes and personal experiences in the largest city in the country the last few weeks say different

Most of these setting don't classify as close contacts

hmmm

AdamD wrote: »

If this is the case then what's the end game? These people are vaccinated, if they are still vulnerable now then they will still be vulnerable in 4/6/8/12 months time. When do we move on from restrictions?

The end-game is mass vaccination which suppresses the ability for the virus to spread, which we would have achieved along with reopening in mid July if we were dealing with the previous variant. Delta has thrown a spanner in the works, but the escape route is still the same - vaccination. We just have to be a bit more careful over the next few weeks and adapt our strategy as we get new data.

Silentcorner

If the link between cases and hospitalizations has been broken, and it looks like it is elsewhere, the daily case numbers need to be dropped by September.

Many of us suspect that this tool is only there to frighten the public...look at what has happened in our hospitals since February, but you wouldn't think it if you watched or listened to the news studiously.

9 died in June I believe, anyone like to guess the demographic breakdown?

Wolf359f

TheDoctor wrote: »

Well my eyes and personal experiences in the largest city in the country the last few weeks say different

So when NPHET do their modelling (I'm not defending the models) should they look at the data the contact tracers collect or stick their head out the window and count people close to each other for 15mins?
3.8 is the average number of close contacts, up from 3.6/3.7 a few weeks ago

And yes I remember the CMO's remark about full carparks he could see from his office window, even offering to show a journalist.

wadacrack

CruelSummer wrote: »

I’ve read it.
What is your opinion on this tweet?

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1410320834342932483?s=21

He’s basically saying that even when fully vaccinated the over 70s are still at risk & is attempting to justify further lockdowns & restrictions on the back of a group - fully vaccinated at 100% uptake.

My opinion is that the Ro could well be below 1 in this instance . The viral load is lower in vaccinated people so this could happen.

I'm not qualified tho and he is.

The situation may change between then. Theeir are earlier trials on a 3rd shot boosting immunity

TheDoctor

wadacrack wrote: »

Most of these setting don't classify as close contacts

Well then the definition of close contacts is rubbish if I stand in the middle of a few 100 people on a street having a few pints for hours and it’s 0 close contacts

TheDoctor

Wolf359f wrote: »

So when NPHET do their modelling (I'm not defending the models) should they look at the data the contact tracers collect or stick their head out the window and count people close to each other for 15mins?
3.8 is the average number of close contacts, up from 3.6/3.7 a few weeks ago

And yes I remember the CMO's remark about full carparks he could see from his office window, even offering to show a journalist.

Well, we can all see those numbers are BS so won’t be paying attention to them.

Again the model in March was spectacularly incorrect.

To note it was said that if a “moderate” increase in people’s contacts from 5 April to 30 September we would see a peak of 9,500 cases a day.

Also note this was before Delta

zuutroy

Looking at Nolan's research career things don't really add up. His research record is quite mediocre. It would be about the level where you might have a case for promotion to what used to be known as 'senior lecturer' and he's published one paper in 8 years, yet he's a full professor and has won numerous research awards. I suppose he could have advanced and become President of NUIM through other academic pursuits but it's certainly nothing like the profile you see for the likes of, for example, Brian McCraith.

Silentcorner

TheDoctor wrote: »

.

Again the model in March was spectacularly incorrect

Despite the huge increase in people's movement from schools, to work, to inter country travel....the numbers have been going down...like many of us predicted here, that make's a mockery of the belief that lock downs are the key driver in reducing infections.

Bsharp

I haven't come across a reference on how previously infected people are accounted for? He mentions those vaccinated alright. Also, what the assumption is for that number? Fair to say it's recognised that recorded cases are a lot lower then actual infection rates.

peasant

Just speaking for myself here.

I'm an old fart, reasonably healthy and doubly vaccinated.

I still don't want to get Covid, even if the vaccine keeps me out of the hospital.

Because Covid is so much more than a "flu" or a respiratory disease. It can affect your whole vascular system and have severe long-term effects on your organs, your heart and even your brain. As it is a relatively young disease, long term effects are only just emerging and by no means fully understood.

But I really don't want to dive back in- head on - into crowded pubs or any other crowd for that matter. If and when things open back up again, I will sit well back and wait until the initial excitement has died down and there's a chance of a quiet pint (or whatever) again.


Another thing that puzzles me, as I don't have any children ...but...won't anyone think of the children (and young people)?

No chance of a vaccine for them, but there's so many people hell bent on opening everything for the summer so that the kids and students can come back to a perfect storm of Covid cases in autumn - unvaccinated.

Really?

hmmm

Silentcorner wrote: »

Despite the huge increase in people's movement from schools, to work, to inter country travel....the numbers have been going down...like many of us predicted here, that make's a mockery of the belief that lock downs are the key driver in reducing infections.

This again, how else do you think the virus numbers reduce - magic?

Lockdowns break the chains of transmission, and work to stop the virus spreading into other unaffected bubbles of people at times where there is mass transmission (e.g. stopping people moving outside their county). There is a long tail afterwards as restrictions are gradually lifted and the virus works its way through the pockets of people who are in close contact with still-infected people.

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

Yes. marmalade Max on Twitter discussed this model months ago and critiqued it.
The Author of that model is a statistics student who previously used another statistical model to determine the best snooker player ever.

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2021/0318/1204649-snooker-greatest-player-of-all-time/


(For those wondering it showed it to be a john Higgins)

This has been confirmed by Nolan himself tonight

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410315619656949765

normanoffside

wadacrack wrote: »

Contacts have not increased that much.

NPHET Data has already confirmed that close contacts have already almost doubled since then

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1409885270049239048

Silentcorner

hmmm wrote: »

This again, how else do you think the virus numbers reduce - magic?

.

They reduce naturally after a viral surge, just like the flu does every year....the cases fell off a cliff at the end of January when we went back to testing healthy people again, but we were in level 5 for 5 weeks at that stage...why did it take 5 weeks to fall off a cliff, what happened in week 3 that didn't happen in week 2 (allowing for that famous 2 week timeline)...

It also explains why the numbers haven't shot up anywhere since February in any meaningful way...despite the increased movement across the country.

If lock downs work, then the countries or States that went light on restrictions would see a much higher death rate, hospitalization and infection rate....

giveitholly

seamus wrote: »

Every hotel outside of Dublin is completely booked out to September. Many hotels have little or no availability this side of Xmas.

Pubs and restaurants at the moment have a solid flow of customers in 7 nights a week.

They're flying it for now, but we need a more sustainable strategy once flights reopen and especially when we get to the end of the summer.

Seamus you should try visit rural Ireland and suggest to the publicans and small cafes that hospitality is flying it

Cork2021

normanoffside wrote: »

NPHET Data has already confirmed that close contacts have already almost doubled since then

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1409885270049239048

Nolan’s models are questionable and the fact he goes after the over 70’s being vulnerable once again…

What is the end game?
Are they saying vaccines won’t work in the medium to long term? Are we heading towards permanent social distancing and masks?
We’ll continue to be the outliers in Europe as long as this government and especially NPHET hold power!

So a senior member of NPHET has now confirmed that they still view the vulnerable as vulnerable even after full vaccination as it is only 95% effective.

Please disband these dangerous lunatics immediately!