Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Bsharp

giveitholly wrote: »

Seamus you should try visit rural Ireland and suggest to the publicans and small cafes that hospitality is flying it

I really fear for towns and villages across rural Ireland. With unknown restrictions on indoor hospitality and uncertain weather most people I know have now cancelled their staycations.

Cork2021

giveitholly wrote: »

Seamus you should try visit rural Ireland and suggest to the publicans and small cafes that hospitality is flying it

Spot on! Seen too many small businesses go down the toilet since this all began!
Enough is enough

giveitholly

And all these pubs that are flying it could get a rude awakening with the weather due to change from the weekend

zackory

hmmm wrote: »

This again, how else do you think the virus numbers reduce - magic?

Lockdowns break the chains of transmission, and work to stop the virus spreading into other unaffected bubbles of people at times where there is mass transmission (e.g. stopping people moving outside their county). There is a long tail afterwards as restrictions are gradually lifted and the virus works its way through the pockets of people who are in close contact with still-infected people.

How did the numbers in Limerick decrease (14 day average 24 cases per day) after the "explosive multipler effect" a few weeks ago. How come, without a lockdown Limerick is no longer in the news?

TefalBrain

Deleted User wrote: »

So a senior member of NPHET has now confirmed that they still view the vulnerable as vulnerable even after full vaccination as it is only 95% effective.

Please disband these dangerous lunatics immediately!

It's okay. Just two more weeks, honestly.

Silentcorner

zackory wrote: »

How did the numbers in Limerick decrease (14 day average 24 cases per day) after the "explosive multipler effect" a few weeks ago. How come, without a lockdown Limerick is no longer in the news?

And the pubs opened about the time of that surge...the city centre is busier all and every weekend...

It's incredible that people still believe that lock downs work, if Nphet believed their own predictions we'd be back in level 5...year round.

The HorsesMouth

The physician and CNN medical analyst Leana Wen also made a point of noting that “all of the vaccines are essentially a hundred percent” in this regard. And half a dozen former members of President Joe Biden’s COVID-19 Advisory Board wrote in USA Today, “Varying ‘effectiveness’ rates miss the most important point: The vaccines were all 100% effective in the vaccine trials in stopping hospitalizations and death.”

Where is this 95% efficiency stat coming from? Is it not 95% efficiency from symptomatic infection?

Cork2021

zackory wrote: »

How did the numbers in Limerick decrease (14 day average 24 cases per day) after the "explosive multipler effect" a few weeks ago. How come, without a lockdown Limerick is no longer in the news?

Outbreaks it’s as simple as that, they petered out! Yet we are constantly told these are super spreader events. I’ve enough of it and these doomsday scenarios are a fûcking joke!
We have over 4million doses of vaccine administered and over 6million on the island of Ireland! If they believe that we’ll have such a huge wave of infection just fuçking lockdown again and repeat until we’ve mass emigration and the country is gone

CruelSummer

Míchéal Martin at FF parliamentary party meeting:

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410330835283292162?s=21

So Delta is a ‘slow burner’ now? This just gets better and better.

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410328183442976773?s=21

And as for this…NPHET ‘set the bar high’ - ‘it’s going to be very difficult’. Openly admitting its Dr Tony who’s in charge & dictating terms.

This quite frankly is getting more & more outrageous by the minute.

zackory

Silentcorner wrote: »

And the pubs opened about the time of that surge...the city centre is busier all and every weekend...

It's incredible that people still believe that lock downs work, if Nphet believed their own predictions we'd be back in level 5...year round.

Limerick is our observation point for an exponential rise in cases and it is simply not happening.

hmmm

zackory wrote: »

How did the numbers in Limerick decrease (14 day average 24 cases per day) after the "explosive multipler effect" a few weeks ago. How come, without a lockdown Limerick is no longer in the news?

Extensive testing, lots of contact tracing and a big effort by the people of Limerick. No-one is claiming lockdowns alone are the only tactic available, but I’m not getting dragged into some stupid conversation as to whether or not the virus magically faded away.

aziz

Bsharp wrote: »

I really fear for towns and villages across rural Ireland. With unknown restrictions on indoor hospitality and uncertain weather most people I know have now cancelled their staycations.

I think anyone who can, should feck off abroad for their holidays

The hospitality industry have rolled over and took the crap the government were giving out

And now they want to charge for two weeks in the algarve prices for a wet weekend in Kerry

zackory

CruelSummer wrote: »

Míchéal Martin at FF parliamentary party meeting:

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410330835283292162?s=21

So Delta is a ‘slow burner’ now? This just gets better and better.

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410328183442976773?s=21

And as for this…NPHET ‘set the bar high’ - ‘it’s going to be very difficult’. Openly admitting its Dr Tony who’s in charge & dictating terms.

This quite frankly is getting more & more outrageous by the minute.

This is obscene, the high transmissible delta variant is a slow burner.

He has bought NPHET's position hook, line and sinker.

Engage with hospitality, come up with a plan by 19th July, then suddenly its back to school season and that comes first.

Silentcorner

hmmm wrote: »

Extensive testing, lots of contact tracing and a big effort by the people of Limerick. No-one is claiming lockdowns alone are the only tactic available, but I’m not getting dragged into some stupid conversation as to whether or not the virus magically faded away.

You are having a laugh....the pubs were packed when they reopened, retail reopened..the city centre cafe's had been serving people outdoors for weeks before they were allowed to and were packed, the streets have been much busier.

The virus needs a critical mass of vulnerable immune systems to surge across the entire population, you won't get that during the summer months.

Cluster, yes, the impact of which will be minuscule.

We saw the same thing last year....Kildare was treated to severe restrictions to little or no effect.

zackory

hmmm wrote: »

Extensive testing, lots of contact tracing and a big effort by the people of Limerick. No-one is claiming lockdowns alone are the only tactic available, but I’m not getting dragged into some stupid conversation as to whether or not the virus magically faded away.

hmmm wrote: »

This again, how else do you think the virus numbers reduce - magic?

You seem to be contradicting yourself there.

zackory

Silentcorner wrote: »

You are having a laugh....the pubs were packed when they reopened, retail reopened..the city centre cafe's had been serving people outdoors for weeks before they were allowed to and were packed, the streets have been much busier.

The virus needs a critical mass of vulnerable immune systems to surge across the entire population, you won't get that during the summer months.

Cluster, yes, the impact of which will be minuscule.

We saw the same thing last year....Kildare was treated to severe restrictions to little or no effect.

Ah yeah the great LOKdown. Another fail.

hmmm

zackory wrote: »

You seem to be contradicting yourself there.

Contact tracing and testing is the standard way of controlling outbreaks when numbers are relatively low.

Lockdowns are required when the numbers get too high for these to work effectively.

Public Health are currently suppressing Delta through jumping on every case they find and contact tracing - they don't do that for every Covid case. At some point however the dam will break and they get overwhelmed if numbers are allowed get too high.

Or maybe the virus just fades away by itself - which Facebook group have you arrived in from.

TheDoctor

CruelSummer wrote: »

Míchéal Martin at FF parliamentary party meeting:

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410330835283292162?s=21

So Delta is a ‘slow burner’ now? This just gets better and better.

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410328183442976773?s=21

And as for this…NPHET ‘set the bar high’ - ‘it’s going to be very difficult’. Openly admitting its Dr Tony who’s in charge & dictating terms.

This quite frankly is getting more & more outrageous by the minute.

NPHET only give advice sure.

Just remember that.

“Set the bar high”

Only advice.

zackory

hmmm wrote: »

Contact tracing and testing is the standard way of controlling outbreaks when numbers are relatively low.

Lockdowns are required when the numbers get too high for these to work effectively.

Public Health are currently suppressing Delta through jumping on every case they find and contact tracing - they don't do that for every Covid case. At some point however the dam will break and they get overwhelmed if numbers are allowed get too high.

Or maybe the virus just fades away by itself - which Facebook group have you arrived in from.

Why was the LOKdown necessary then?

Wolf359f

normanoffside wrote: »

NPHET Data has already confirmed that close contacts have already almost doubled since then

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1409885270049239048

We were not discussing January, it was a prediction from March when close contacts were 3.2, they have risen to 3.8 now. So they haven't doubled.

duffman13

So I read his 36 tweets

Tweet 23 speculates on hospital admissions and deaths

This is based on a policy document in September of last year to plan for surges. The modelling plugged in is based on R numbers for cases which is probably still relevant.

It states planning for a hospitalisation rate of 2.6% of cases, current hospitalisation rate is below 1% here and is around 1% in the UK. So you've already got a huge variance on project hospital numbers.

Of these cases that are hospitalised 10.8% require ICU treatment. The ECDC have it currently 3.9%. We have vaccinations and a number of treatments which should bring this down further hopefully.

Two key indicators, hospitalisation and ICU cases appear to be using very much outdated inputs. Am i missing something?

If not we are over egging hospitalistions in all scenarios by a factor of nearly 3 and ICU by a lot lot more than that

marno21

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410328183442976773?s=21

The Taoiseach now answers to the Chief Medical Officer by all accounts.

zackory

Wolf359f wrote: »

We were not discussing January, it was a prediction from March when close contacts were 3.2, they have risen to 3.8 now. So they haven't doubled.

Below is from public health Limerick today, so if the official number is 3.8 you can add to that again.



The department said it is containing to encounter “difficulties throughout the contact tracing process, where some people are not fully disclosing their close contacts or activities”.

beaz2018

duffman13 wrote: »

So I read his 36 tweets

Tweet 23 speculates on hospital admissions and deaths

This is based on a policy document in September of last year to plan for surges. The modelling plugged in is based on R numbers for cases which is probably still relevant.

It states planning for a hospitalisation rate of 2.6% of cases, current hospitalisation rate is below 1% here and is around 1% in the UK. So you've already got a huge variance on project hospital numbers.

Of these cases that are hospitalised 10.8% require ICU treatment. The ECDC have it currently 3.9%. We have vaccinations and a number of treatments which should bring this down further hopefully.

Two key indicators, hospitalisation and ICU cases appear to be using very much outdated inputs. Am i missing something?

If not we are over egging hospitalistions in all scenarios by a factor of nearly 3 and ICU by a lot lot more than that

If this guy who ran this model didn’t win fantasy football after writing a thesis on it, I’ve lost all faith

TheDoctor

marno21 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1410328183442976773?s=21

The Taoiseach now answers to the Chief Medical Officer by all accounts.

No, remember it’s only “advice”.

Wolf359f

zackory wrote: »

Below is from public health Limerick today, so if the official number is 3.8 you can add to that again.



The department said it is containing to encounter “difficulties throughout the contact tracing process, where some people are not fully disclosing their close contacts or activities”.

If that is the first time they have encountered people fully disclosing their close contacts since contract tracing began, then yes it would mean the current close contacts is inaccurate.
However we've heard all along throughout this pandemic about people not being forthcoming with disclosing close contacts.

Cork2021

TheDoctor wrote: »

No, remember it’s only “advice”.

If anyone thinks Holahans ‘advice’ is advice then you’ve been living under a rock, that tweet right there says it all!
Holahan and NPHET are our unelected government what they say goes, even if it’s completely off the wall!

Arghus

I know the tide of public opinion - or definitely the tide of online public opinion - has most definitely turned, particularly over the last couple of days. I've been a staunch defender of nearly every single major public health decision taken over the last 18 months, but, even I am unsure about what's the right course to take at this point or whether figures that are being bandied about can be taken at face value. I envy the people with certainty: it must provide incredible peace of mind.

But, one thing I keep thinking about is that the level of backlash would have been anticipated by the government - and it was deemed worth the risk. And maybe those predictions are right and maybe they're wrong. Everyone is screaming themselves hoarse about the situation as it exists now - the proof will be in the pudding, in my own totally personal and fallible opinion, in a few weeks and perhaps many of the things we are currently arguing about will be seen in a very different light - maybe not. We're in a transition from one point of things to another, I think there has to be a measure of calm - as difficult as it is - until the fog clears and more becomes apparent.

Just my view, which could well look silly in time.

zackory

Wolf359f wrote: »

If that is the first time they have encountered people fully disclosing their close contacts since contract tracing began, then yes it would mean the current close contacts is inaccurate.
However we've heard all along throughout this pandemic about people not being forthcoming with disclosing close contacts.

Well I'd say during real lockdown phases its pretty accurate, as most of people would not have attended any parties, super spreader events etc. and only have a couple of contacts anyway.

Then as people start attending gatherings etc. the accuracy dwindles.

How many people will feel comfortable naming say 20 or 30 close contacts from a house party hanging everybody, can they even name them if they don't know them?

One thing we know is we can't rely on official close contact figures as they are imperfect.

Turtwig

Arghus that's the story of this pandemic. It's a dynamic volatile situation that's very sensitive to tiny changes. Hopefully they're wrong. Hopefully 6 weeks from now the UK will be able to provide us a reasonably complete picture of impact to vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts.

Only time will tell.