Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

cheezums

Deleted User wrote: »

Posted my view earlier in the week, but was away a few days do not looked at in as much detail. Am very dubious about the data. It looks to me that there is a major flaw in there somewhere. I believe they may just have plugged in the vaccine numbers in the day they ran the model, and hospitalisation rates based on those numbers and not factored in the continued rollout. Something dodgy anyway. Could also be that assumptions were based on preliminary uk data in areas such as the north west England and parts of Scotland , which had relatively low levels of vaccine uptake in the older populations and high levels with only one dose AZ unlike here where the vast majority got mRNA.

There is a chance the models are accurate, but even so, the increase will be delayed compared to earlier waves giving time to react if required.

i think that was it alright. a model with increasing contact and transmission, but a static figure in there for % fully vaccinated.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

Posted my view earlier in the week, but was away a few days so not looked at in as much detail. Am very dubious about the data. It looks to me that there is a major flaw in there somewhere. I believe they may just have plugged in the vaccine numbers in the day they ran the model, and hospitalisation rates based on those numbers and not factored in the continued rollout. Something dodgy anyway. Could also be that assumptions were based on preliminary uk data in areas such as the north west England and parts of Scotland , which had relatively low levels of vaccine uptake in the older populations and high levels with only one dose AZ unlike here where the vast majority got mRNA.

There is a chance the models are accurate, but even so, the increase will be delayed compared to earlier waves giving time to react if required.

But even if they did that the death numbers are still way way off?

Knowing 90%+ of deaths occurred in the over 65s and the 65-69 sge group are receiving second doses now (due to AZ delay) even if we went back to normal and opened up nightclubs and had covid parties tomorrow the death projections still seem absurd

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But even if they did that the death numbers are still way way off?

Knowing 90%+ of deaths occurred in the over 65s and the 65-69 sge group are receiving second doses now (due to AZ delay) even if we went back to normal and opened up nightclubs and had covid parties tomorrow the death projections still seem absurd

The death projections are the least objectionable actually if the others came to pass. You forget the headline effectiveness numbers are based on the average person. Those older and vulnerable populations are those most likely to have an ineffective dose/ vaccine breakthrough due to their weaker immune system in general. Estimates put the risk of death in a fully vaccinated person over 80 at around 6x that of an unvaccinated under 40. Down from over 100x. That’s why continuing down the age groups with vaccinations is so important.

Klonker

giveitholly wrote: »

Wouldn't have much time for Ciara Kelly but she does raise a lot of valid points in the video on her Instagram

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CQtbiVPHjKX/?utm_medium=copy_link

Can't disagree with anything she said. It's a pity she's on holidays from Newstalk considering the shambles this week was.

Klonker

Doesn't matter if he had pictures of all of NPHET at an orgy not a word would be said against them, they can do what they like. Sure for the antigen discussion with the travel committee 6 members of NPHET sat in a small room together for an hour with no masks and no social distancing and not a word was said.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

The death projections are the least objectionable actually if the others came to pass. You forget the headline effectiveness numbers are based on the average person. Those older and vulnerable populations are those most likely to have an ineffective dose/ vaccine breakthrough due to their weaker immune system in general. Estimates put the risk of death in a fully vaccinated person over 80 at around 6x that of an unvaccinated under 40. Down from over 100x. That’s why continuing down the age groups with vaccinations is so important.

You say that the vaccinated person over 80 is 6x more likely to die.

Didn’t the uk cmo say that last year every 1000 cases resulted in 60 deaths whereas now 1000 cases results in 1 death.

60 times less deadly

That stat would still allude to NPHET’s death projection being way way off regardless of less vaccines being administered here

Of course continuing the vaccinations is important, but reopening is just as important

Solli

Normal One wrote: »

Looks like England is surviving delta, unlike us



https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1410725161125355522?s=21

Really? Today Britain recorded more new cases of #COVIDー19 (27,989) than any other country in the world, except India (42,950). worldometers.info/coronavirus/#c…

Normal One

Solli wrote: »

Really? Today Britain recorded more new cases of #COVIDー19 (27,989) than any other country in the world, except India (42,950). worldometers.info/coronavirus/#c…

Yes, cases.

FintanMcluskey

Solli wrote: »

Really? Today Britain recorded more new cases of #COVIDー19 (27,989) than any other country in the world, except India (42,950). worldometers.info/coronavirus/#c…

Lifted from a different thread

The "Delta" variant has a case fatality rate of 0.1% (Public Health England, 11 June 2021).

Solli

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Lifted from a different thread

Guess you’d like to be able to taste food and smell for the rest of your life. It’s not a trivial thing, most of my family affected in this way. Young and not so young

FintanMcluskey

Solli wrote: »

Guess you’d like to be able to taste food and smell for the rest of your life. It’s not a trivial thing, most of my family affected in this way. Young and not so young

I’d like to afford food for the rest of my life

Not something that’s guaranteed anymore

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

You say that the vaccinated person over 80 is 6x more likely to die.

Didn’t the uk cmo say that last year every 1000 cases resulted in 60 deaths whereas now 1000 cases results in 1 death.

60 times less deadly

That stat would still allude to NPHET’s death projection being way way off regardless of less vaccines being administered here

Of course continuing the vaccinations is important, but reopening is just as important

Someone quoted that from the UK CMO, but you need to be careful.
Wave 1 in the UK: 1000 cases = 226 deaths
Wave 2 (November peak): 1000 cases = 19 deaths
Wave 3 (Jan peak): 1000 cases = 21 deaths
All 3 above were from the peak case numbers and all 3 vary wildly due to lack of testing and vaccines etc...

If the UK CMO's 1000 cases = 1 death holds true at the peak of this wave than that's absolutely amazing and shows just how well vaccines work. Technically it should stay low because it will be the young and healthy getting covid.
I can't see the deaths in the UK getting anywhere near previous waves, but hospital figures potentially could get uncomfortably high.

domrush

Solli wrote: »

Guess you’d like to be able to taste food and smell for the rest of your life. It’s not a trivial thing, most of my family affected in this way. Young and not so young

It’s just to avoid your cooking

Northernlily

What do we reckon, any merit to Ewan McKennas ramblings on twitter this evening?

Seems like a man at the the grog. He has a lot of support egging him on anyway. Much more than usual.

Faugheen

Northernlily wrote: »

What do we reckon, any merit to Ewan McKennas ramblings on twitter this evening?

Seems like a man at the the grog. He has a lot of support egging him on anyway. Much more than usual.

There is f*ck all. He’s basically blackmailed the CMO claiming to have pictures of a member of his family breaching the rules.

Anybody here who supports that is an out and out scumbag just like he is.

He’s an alcoholic who has been on the piss and is looking for attention. Shameful bastard.

Northernlily

Faugheen wrote: »

There is f*ck all. He’s basically blackmailed the CMO claiming to have pictures of a member of his family breaching the rules.

Anybody here who supports that is an out and out scumbag just like he is.

He’s an alcoholic who has been on the piss and is looking for attention. Shameful bastard.

Yeah, I think he's stirring the pot and riling people up when in reality has sweet **** all.

*If it is the case a member of NPHET broke protocol then they need to step down.

FintanMcluskey

Faugheen wrote: »

There is f*ck all. He’s basically blackmailed the CMO claiming to have pictures of a member of his family breaching the rules.

Anybody here who supports that is an out and out scumbag just like he is.

He’s an alcoholic who has been on the piss and is looking for attention. Shameful bastard.

It’s been a weird year

People have been fined for walking outdoors in public amenities in the name of public health

Travel abroad carries a heafty fine

Funerals were limited to 10 people early in the year (if I remember correctly)

Human rights were never suspended on such a scale

The guys that implemented and those that advised those rules sure as hell better have been following them, blackmail or not

Or as you say yourself scum bag

Those people in nPHEt could have cost lives if they didn’t follow the rules

bucketybuck

RunningFlyer wrote: »

I can only imagine if the ‘smoking gun’ images thing is real and are being withheld on ‘morals’ then it is related to an event concerned with a family tragedy.

If so, no matter the perception of the individual involved, it would be completely immoral and insensitive to try create a smear campaign over.

As unpopular NPHET are to many, this would be crossing a line.

I have no idea what he is referring to, but I can say one thing in advance with complete sincerity.

I ****ing hate hypocrites.

Wolf359f

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s been a weird year

People have been fined for walking outdoors in public amenities in the name of public health

Travel abroad carries a heafty fine

Funerals were limited to 10 people early in the year

Human rights were never suspended on such a scale

The guys that implemented and those that advised those rules sure as hell better have been following them, blackmail or not

Or as you say yourself scum bag

Those people in nPHEt could have cost lives if they didn’t follow the rules

Yeah I'm not sure our human rights were suspended.
Only place that occurred was Australia.

bucketybuck

Solli wrote: »

Guess you’d like to be able to taste food and smell for the rest of your life. It’s not a trivial thing, most of my family affected in this way. Young and not so young

Christ, I know the goalposts are constantly shifting but I never thought we would go from protecting the vulnerable from death, to protecting randomers from losing their sense of taste.

I remember when all this was about protecting hospitals, not hors d'oeuvres.

Normal One

Interesting thread on the state of the uk

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1410989321394458629?s=21

FintanMcluskey

bucketybuck wrote: »

Christ, I know the goalposts are constantly shifting but I never thought we would go from protecting the vulnerable from death, to protecting randomers from losing their sense of taste.

I remember when all this was about protecting hospitals, not hors d'oeuvres.

It’s getting out of hand now

It’s gone from flatten to the curve to tasting food

Faugheen

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

It’s been a weird year

People have been fined for walking outdoors in public amenities in the name of public health

Travel abroad carries a heafty fine

Funerals were limited to 10 people early in the year (if I remember correctly)

Human rights were never suspended on such a scale

You poor thing.

Speaking as someone who lost a family member to COVID very early on in the first wave, we couldn't even have a funeral. They were brought straight to a crematorium and we couldn't even go inside. So I can quite frankly see through your faux-outrage about funeral numbers.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The guys that implemented and those that advised those rules sure as hell better have been following them, blackmail or not

Or as you say yourself scum bag

Those people in nPHEt could have cost lives if they didn’t follow the rules

The suggestion is that it's a family member of a NPHET member. That's bang out of f*cking order bringing people who have no bearing in the conduction of the public health advice into this. It's proper gangland sh*te that is and to see people thinking it's ok to threaten people who are simply doing their f*cking job with pictures of their family member is below the f*cking belt.

NPHET advises, government decides. The problem here is we have a spineless bunch of idiots who are frightened of their sh*te of getting it wrong like they did at Christmas.

And now that scumbag (which you seem to be making excuses for) is going public about pictures he has but won't publish. He's a fool and he's playing on people's frustrations and anger for his own gain.

Morals my f*cking hole.

Northernlily

^^^^^

You seem to be very worked up about it. I don't agree with how McKenna is conducting this at all.

Let's wait and see.

Zebra3

Faugheen wrote: »

It's proper gangland sh*te that is

You should meet people who have had family murdered by gangland scumbags.

Bodies chopped up. Bodies buried in concrete.

Cop yourself on. :rolleyes:

Faugheen

Northernlily wrote: »

^^^^^

You seem to be very worked up about it. I don't agree with how McKenna is conducting this at all.

Let's wait and see.

Yeah I am.

Threatening a member of NPHET with photos of a family member has gone way beyond the levels of basic human decency. Especially when he announces it publicly and then declares that nobody else is going to see it.

The fact he's directing all of his ire at the CMO suggests to me that it's one of his family members. Considering the year they have had, why would anyone with any basic morals not be pissed off about it and then see some fools here trying to justify what Ewan McKenna is doing?

I'm f*cking raging that it is getting to this. Raging. People can be pissed off with NPHET all they want but to actively support some pr*ck who is trying to rile everyone up by insinuating he has compromising pictures of a family member of someone on NPHET? In what decent society is that in anyway acceptable? How??

FintanMcluskey

Faugheen wrote: »

You poor thing.

Speaking as someone who lost a family member to COVID very early on in the first wave, we couldn't even have a funeral. They were brought straight to a crematorium and we couldn't even go inside. So I can quite frankly see through your faux-outrage about funeral numbers.



The suggestion is that it's a family member of a NPHET member. That's bang out of f*cking order bringing people who have no bearing in the conduction of the public health advice into this. It's proper gangland sh*te that is and to see people thinking it's ok to threaten people who are simply doing their f*cking job with pictures of their family member is below the f*cking belt.

NPHET advises, government decides. The problem here is we have a spineless bunch of idiots who are frightened of their sh*te of getting it wrong like they did at Christmas.

And now that scumbag (which you seem to be making excuses for) is going public about pictures he has but won't publish. He's a fool and he's playing on people's frustrations and anger for his own gain.

Morals my f*cking hole.

Gangland? Eh no it’s not gangland

If he does have something, and he may have nothing, it’s at a time of poor public relations for nPHEt

bucketybuck

Faugheen wrote: »

The suggestion is that it's a family member of a NPHET member. That's bang out of f*cking order bringing people who have no bearing in the conduction of the public health advice into this.

Irish people have been nastily shaming those who broke these inane restrictions for well over a year now, why would it be out of bounds to do it now just because they are possibly connected to NPHET?

We can make jokes about traveller weddings but have to quietly ignore NPHET families, is that it?

bucketybuck

Faugheen wrote: »

He’s an alcoholic who has been on the piss and is looking for attention. Shameful bastard.

Faugheen wrote: »

How about you 'cop yourself on' instead of showing support for an alcoholic

By the way, your frothing outrage rings hollow when this is the sort of bile you spew out.

FintanMcluskey

bucketybuck wrote: »

Irish people have been nastily shaming those who broke these inane restrictions for well over a year now, why would it be out of bounds to do it now just because they are possibly connected to NPHET?

We can make jokes about traveller weddings but have to quietly ignore NPHET families, is that it?

Have to agree here

Anyone remember the people that went to buy a dog last year

Or the student parties in Limerick

Or that bar in Dublin

Or that man fined on the beach walking the dog

Or the Dubai pair

The keelings workers

All breaking the rules

And gladly vilified by the nation