Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

JRant

Maxface wrote: »

Still failing to see what the Governments actual plan is at this stage? Is there any? If the virus rips through the unvaccinated and the talk of getting children vaccinated next year, are we gonna still be at this until then?

Vaccinate all adults before easing anymore restrictions seems to be the plan now. That will take us to late August at best. Rather than communicate this as their plan they have decided to go with the tried and tested lies of "a few more weeks". They have zero intention to open indoor on the 19th July. I'm not even sure it'll be open by the 19th August.

is_that_so

Maxface wrote: »

Still failing to see what the Governments actual plan is at this stage? Is there any? If the virus rips through the unvaccinated and the talk of getting children vaccinated next year, are we gonna still be at this until then?

It was Plan A, agreed and supported by NPHET now it's basically let's see what happens in the UK. They do seem to be looking at bringing in antigen testing but otherwise everything is up in the air.

JRant

is_that_so wrote: »

Is there any breakdown on who's being hospitalised, bearing in mind that the UK up to 25% hesitancy in some elderly groups? Would also say that there is more than a hint of setting out to frighten people and being utterly seduced by the the data. UK positivity rate BTW was down from 3.5% to 2.5% yesterday.

Don't they have vaccine hesitancy rates differing depending on the region as well?
That hasn't happened here at all with a very high take up right across the country.

crooked cockney villain

Ficheall wrote: »

Have you citations for any part of that, or did you make the entirety of it up?

The median age of death was 83. As in, half of people who died were 83 or over, which would lead one to assume the bulk of the rest were close to aged 83 (I haven't got the percentages by age to hand).

It would be safe to assume that a majority of people aged in and around 83 who were seriously ill with cancer, sepsis, diabetes and general old age between, say, February and November of 2020, will have passed away by now.

https://www.google.com/search?q=average+time+in+a+nursing+home+before+death&hl=en&source=hp&ei=LxPgYIDwGdqX8gKE1ofYCA&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYOAhP0K81Zwl9rwbb7h7QtLRoB4t9j_Q&oq=average+time+in+a+nursing+&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYATICCAAyAggAMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjoOCC4QxwEQrwEQkQIQkwI6BQguEJECOgoIABCxAxCDARBDOg4ILhCxAxCDARDHARCjAjoICC4QsQMQgwE6BQgAELEDOgsILhCxAxDHARCjAjoUCC4QsQMQgwEQxwEQrwEQkQIQkwI6BQgAEJECOgcILhCxAxBDOgQIABBDOgoILhDHARCvARBDOgoILhCxAxBDEJMCOgcIABCxAxBDOgQIABAKOgcIABCxAxAKSgUIQBIBMVC4AVjMI2CkN2gBcAB4AYAB6AKIAfkWkgEIMTguNS4zLjGYAQCgAQGqAQdnd3Mtd2l6&sclient=gws-wiz

The average nursing home resident survives 2.5 years before dying. Few to none of the nursing home residents who died were relatively fit and healthy and had potentially several years left. That is why they are in a home, because physically they are on the last stretch generally. That's not to be flippant, although tbh most people of that age tend to have a fairly come what may attitude to death- many, perhaps most, even welcome it given how torturous life has become when you are unable to be physically active.

Ironically I wouldn't bet against the stress, depression, isolation and constant scare stories in the news having killed off more healthy people aged 70 to 80 than Covid itself did.

What other part is confusing you?

is_that_so

JRant wrote: »

Don't they have vaccine hesitancy rates differing depending on the region as well?
That hasn't happened here at all with a very high take up right across the country.

Yeah, within particular ethnic groups. That is just one thing that the UK doesn't match up on. They also have a far higher usage of AZ with its extended gap along with a poor contact tracing system.

the kelt

crooked cockney villain wrote: »

The median age of death was 83. As in, half of people who died were 83 or over, which would lead one to assume the bulk of the rest were close to aged 83 (I haven't got the percentages by age to hand).

It would be safe to assume that a majority of people aged in and around 83 who were seriously ill with cancer, sepsis, diabetes and general old age between, say, February and November of 2020, will have passed away by now.

https://www.google.com/search?q=average+time+in+a+nursing+home+before+death&hl=en&source=hp&ei=LxPgYIDwGdqX8gKE1ofYCA&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYOAhP0K81Zwl9rwbb7h7QtLRoB4t9j_Q&oq=average+time+in+a+nursing+&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAEYATICCAAyAggAMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjoOCC4QxwEQrwEQkQIQkwI6BQguEJECOgoIABCxAxCDARBDOg4ILhCxAxCDARDHARCjAjoICC4QsQMQgwE6BQgAELEDOgsILhCxAxDHARCjAjoUCC4QsQMQgwEQxwEQrwEQkQIQkwI6BQgAEJECOgcILhCxAxBDOgQIABBDOgoILhDHARCvARBDOgoILhCxAxBDEJMCOgcIABCxAxBDOgQIABAKOgcIABCxAxAKSgUIQBIBMVC4AVjMI2CkN2gBcAB4AYAB6AKIAfkWkgEIMTguNS4zLjGYAQCgAQGqAQdnd3Mtd2l6&sclient=gws-wiz

The average nursing home resident survives 2.5 years before dying. Few to none of the nursing home residents who died were relatively fit and healthy and had potentially several years left. That is why they are in a home, because physically they are on the last stretch generally. That's not to be flippant, although tbh most people of that age tend to have a fairly come what may attitude to death- many, perhaps most, even welcome it given how torturous life has become when you are unable to be physically active.

Ironically I wouldn't bet against the stress, depression, isolation and constant scare stories in the news having killed off more healthy people aged 70 to 80 than Covid itself did.

What other part is confusing you?

Yeah but only COVID deaths matter.

And look it’s all about cases really, actually no it’s all about protecting the vulnerable and old, but they’re vaccinated now for the most part so it’s all about icu numbers, but they’re pretty low now for ages so it’s all about hospitalisations, but again they’re low and pretty static so look we are back to cases again this week, did ye see the huge daily case number in the uk with the delta variant??

JRant

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, within particular ethnic groups That is just one thing that the UK doesn't match up on. They also have a far higher usage of AZ with its extended gap along with a poor contact tracing system.

The also used 12 weeks for Pfizer which was also off label.

is_that_so

the kelt wrote: »

Yeah but only COVID deaths matter.

And look it’s all about cases really, actually no it’s all about protecting the vulnerable and old, but they’re vaccinated now for the most part so it’s all about icu numbers, but they’re pretty low now for ages so it’s all about hospitalisations, but again they’re low and pretty static so look we are back to cases again this week, did ye see the huge daily case number in the uk with the delta variant??

It is actually the hospital cases and if (or when) the link has been broken between them and overall case numbers then we have a cold on our hands.

daydorunrun

Ficheall wrote: »

Have you citations for any part of that, or did you make the entirety of it up?

To be fair the poster started off saying ‘would I be right in saying?’

Why don’t you have a go at answering the question or pointing out where he is wrong- that would make a far better argument.

prunudo

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, within particular ethnic groups. That is just one thing that the UK doesn't match up on. They also have a far higher usage of AZ with its extended gap along with a poor contact tracing system.

Has there been any reports on the vaccine uptake amongst our own ethnic groups. Particularly the group who seem to have been the driver for large case numbers from gatherings and funerals.

is_that_so

prunudo wrote: »

Has there been any reports on the vaccine uptake amongst our own ethnic groups. Particularly the group who seem to have been the driver for large case numbers from gatherings and funerals.

There seems to be a big uptake across the board to date with no noticeable issues.

prunudo

is_that_so wrote: »

There seems to be a big uptake across the board to date with no noticeable issues.

Its been a great success to be fair them. Seemingly great uptake of the jansen vaccine from 18-35 too with pharmices reporting long waiting lists already.
Its just a shame the government hadn't been proactive and implemented a vaccine/negative test/recovery pass to access certain activities from Monday. But then, they're not known for the proactive, decisive decisions.

Klonker

Deleted User wrote: »

Confirmed cases - 25% positive rate in spring 2020 in the uk with 4K cases per day, 1.5% positive rate now with 20k cases per day.

They were likely at 150k cases a day at peak of wave 1. That would be 6 deaths per 1000. Now it’s closer to 2

Are the UK only counting PCR tests in when getting that 1.5% positivity? If so you're talking about 1.3m tests a day so very impressive stuff in fairness to them.

TefalBrain

JRant wrote: »

Vaccinate all adults before easing anymore restrictions seems to be the plan now. That will take us to late August at best. Rather than communicate this as their plan they have decided to go with the tried and tested lies of "a few more weeks". They have zero intention to open indoor on the 19th July. I'm not even sure it'll be open by the 19th August.

There is no chance, zero actually that indoor will be open again this summer. I'd go as far as to say it will be October before a pint or meal is served inside. It was always their plan in my opinion and they just aren't honest enough to admit it because of the political fallout. It's easy to implement because Irish people are very gullible on the whole and have been bombarded with a relentless scare propaganda campaign by state and special interest media here.

Just 2 more weeks

Just 2 more weeks

Just 2 more weeks.....

is_that_so

prunudo wrote: »

Its been a great success to be fair them. Seemingly great uptake of the jansen vaccine from 18-35 too with pharmices reporting long waiting lists already.
Its just a shame the government hadn't been proactive and implemented a vaccine/negative test/recovery pass to access certain activities from Monday. But then, they're not known for the proactive, decisive decisions.

They don't agree with the idea of a discriminatory pass and add to that a hyper-cautious Taoiseach, a less than effective MoH and abject fear of a repetition of Christmas are part of it.

crooked cockney villain

TefalBrain wrote: »

There is no chance, zero actually that indoor will be open again this summer. I'd go as far as to say it will be October before a pint or meal is served inside. It was always their plan in my opinion and they just aren't honest enough to admit it because of the political fallout. It's easy to implement because Irish people are very gullible on the whole and have been bombarded with a relentless scare propaganda campaign by state and special interest media here.

Just 2 more weeks

Just 2 more weeks

Just 2 more weeks.....

This would have been the original plan, the public and backbench anger this time has been worse than anything ever seen before, in particular because it coincided with nothing of the sort happening in Europe, the North all but fully re opened, England re opening fully on July 19th, packed stadiums on the telly every night, the bizarre prospect that some of us will be able to go to a nightclub in Europe in late July but won't be able to have a pint in Dublin Airport on the way there etc etc etc.

FF TD's are more aware than ever that most of them won't be getting back in and it's all Micheal and NPHET's fault.

They may have just went too far this time, I pray that pubs just might be back in some form after the August BH. With every week that passes the fact that England is hitting record cases but absolutely feck all serious illnesses and deaths will become harder to ignore.

prunudo

is_that_so wrote: »

They don't agree with the idea of a discriminatory pass and add to that a hyper-cautious Taoiseach, a less than effective MoH and abject fear of a repetition of Christmas are part of it.

Personally, I'd have problem with it being vaccine only, hence why I included having a negative test as one of the criteria to get the pass. Think that would get over discriminatory element of the arguement.
It works in other EU countries, no reason it couldn't here but alas like many things its too little to late.

podgeandrodge

Normal One wrote: »

Interesting thread on the state of the uk

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1410989321394458629?s=21

She started off with reasonable facts, then noted that despite cases rising, deaths and hospitalisations were still very low.

Then she said:

"many will still get very sick and some will die",

"plus hospitals are already stressed and don't need more stress!"

"Long covid. ONS reports 1 million people a year living with long covid, and 385K have had it for over a year. 634K said it adversely affected their daily lives."

"Sooo... for every million new infections, we might expect 100K-200K (mostly young) people living with long covid."

"Many will find their ability to work or study affected."

"Instead, govt is planning to remove the few measures that we do have: social distancing, masks, isolation and allowing mass events & venues such as nightclubs without testing or other measures. "This is a deliberate choice to allow millions of young people to get infected."



When you start to argue that restrictions should remain for the whole country to avoid long covid, while ignoring the mental health issues of this, not to mention the economy...

TefalBrain

crooked cockney villain wrote: »

This would have been the original plan, the public and backbench anger this time has been worse than anything ever seen before, in particular because it coincided with nothing of the sort happening in Europe, the North all but fully re opened, England re opening fully on July 19th, packed stadiums on the telly every night, the bizarre prospect that some of us will be able to go to a nightclub in Europe in late July but won't be able to have a pint in Dublin Airport on the way there etc etc etc.

FF TD's are more aware than ever that most of them won't be getting back in and it's all Micheal and NPHET's fault.

They may have just went too far this time, I pray that pubs just might be back in some form after the August BH. With every week that passes the fact that England is hitting record cases but absolutely feck all serious illnesses and deaths will become harder to ignore.

They will ignore it. NPHET/Government will use the state media arm of their propaganda machine to put out news about the very rare cases of people being infected and dying all the while never mentioning that many will have had underlying conditions the same underlying conditions that would make the common flu very dangerous for them. They'll also push the increasing case number angle despite it not mattering a jot to most under 40's

In the coming week or so watch as they roll back on the covid green cert also and make it only available for fully vaccinated from the 19th with a "further review" in the middle of August conveniently timed for the end of the foreign holiday season (shock horror on that one)

This isn't some hap hazard half arsed plan they would have sat down with NPHET some time ago and trashed this out for the least amount of political fallout.

hotmail.com

Conservative nation and we got a conservative response.

is_that_so

prunudo wrote: »

Personally, I'd have problem with it being vaccine only, hence why I included having a negative test as one of the criteria to get the pass. Think that would get over discriminatory element of the arguement.
It works in other EU countries, no reason it couldn't here but alas like many things its too little to late.

I'd rather see neither but would favour the test, but not off the back of a set of numbers that could turn out to be wildly wrong. Even at the peak in January their upper projection of hospital cases was wrong by a factor of 20%.

Cork2021

podgeandrodge wrote: »

She started off with reasonable facts, then noted that despite cases rising, deaths and hospitalisations were still very low.

Then she said:

"many will still get very sick and some will die",

"plus hospitals are already stressed and don't need more stress!"

"Long covid. ONS reports 1 million people a year living with long covid, and 385K have had it for over a year. 634K said it adversely affected their daily lives."

"Sooo... for every million new infections, we might expect 100K-200K (mostly young) people living with long covid."

"Many will find their ability to work or study affected."

"Instead, govt is planning to remove the few measures that we do have: social distancing, masks, isolation and allowing mass events & venues such as nightclubs without testing or other measures. "This is a deliberate choice to allow millions of young people to get infected."



When you start to argue that restrictions should remain for the whole country to avoid long covid, while ignoring the mental health issues of this, not to mention the economy...

It’s the people in ISAG and independent SAGE that should be worried about their own mental health I think. They’ve become isolated and want it to stay that way

JRant

is_that_so wrote: »

I'd rather see neither but would favour the test, but not off the back of a set of numbers that could turn out to be wildly wrong. Even at the peak in January their upper projection of hospital cases was wrong by a factor of 20%.

A huge problem is that MM thinks the projections are "very clear" and has no interest in entertaining a second opinion.

Dr. Bre

hotmail.com wrote: »

Conservative nation and we got a conservative response.

Left wing nation and all left wing parties are pro lockdown

lucernarian

CoisFharraige wrote: »

If we go forward to the end of August when we could have 80% of the adult population vaccinated, we will still see virus breakthroughs of the vaccines. In a population of 4.9m, even if only 1% of the vulnerable saw a virus breakthrough (let's say a conservative estimate of 300,000 vulnerable people in the population), you could see 3,000 serious cases possible leading to death. Remember as well - a 90% uptake means 10% of those vulnerable people are completely unvaccinated (!)

These stats are not useful for gauging the impact on the country quantitatively, but in a qualitative sense, virus breakthroughs will happen, cases would skyrocket with the country opened more, and that will lead to more hospitilisations. The virus is dangerous and is going to spread rapidly over the coming weeks, we can't deny that. HOWEVER, as we become more protected, the virus' threat will begin to subside. The problem is that we're still 4-6 weeks from that.

I don't really think the stats posted are useful quantitatively or qualitatively. The takeup of vaccine amongst the highly vaccinated is going past 95%, the efficacy of the vaccines at preventing hospitalisation and death is currently found to be >90% and it is a well-known fact to say existing recovered patients who are not at risk from existing variants are another big cohort on top of the vaccinated pile.

This is an emotive and speculative hyperbole on top of a model that has proven to perform below the lowest confidence interval of predicted case numbers in every prediction made with each single step of reopening the country. If that isn't a systematic bias in the model being used, I don't know what to tell you.

hotmail.com

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Left wing nation and all left wing parties are pro lockdown

All the signs of our response points to caution and conservatism.

And we thought we had moved on from being conservative.

Holohan checking on drinkers in Dublin was peak Catholic bishop stuff.

And the public support it. We are still a conservative nation.

ongarite

Just look at the F1 in Austria, place is rammed with thousands of fans enjoying a great day outside.
2 weeks time, full capacity at Silverstone, UK.

Meanwhile today, 3 thousand fans in Aviva. Pathetic, we are so risk averse & scared its putting future of country at risk.
Long term youth unemployment leads to mass immigration & risk of life long social welfare class emerging.

Silentcorner

ongarite wrote: »

Just look at the F1 in Austria, place is rammed with thousands of fans enjoying a great day outside.
2 weeks time, full capacity at Silverstone, UK.

Meanwhile today, 3 thousand fans in Aviva. Pathetic, we are so risk averse & scared its putting future of country at risk.
Long term youth unemployment leads to mass immigration & risk of life long social welfare class emerging.

Before it's over tune to the Irish rugby match and look at how pathetic it looks.

There's no other word for it, it is pathetic...we are paying top dollar for our experts this is all they can manage!

Hooter23

If the HSE thinks the virus is so bad then why were all there nurses not wearing masks in a hospital in Galway for the during the whole year of 2020 during this so called pandemic..

Of course they did make sure there patients had to wear masks one rule for them and no rules for themselves...I suppose what do you expect from people that assault and abuse there patients...and as for there so called "professors" well there so kind to there patients that they offer the "very small amount of money" to "test out new drugs" can the HSE tell me if this is even legal...the patients are in there because they are not well....yet there are well enough to sign forms to take part in medical experiments..

Getting paid to assault and abuse patients #clapforscumbags

lucernarian

Hooter23 wrote: »

If the HSE thinks the virus is so bad then why were all there nurses not wearing masks in a hospital in Galway for the during the whole year of 2020 during this so called pandemic..

Of course they did make sure there patients had to wear masks one rule for them and no rules for themselves...I suppose what do you expect from people that assault and abuse there patients...and as for there so called "professors" well there so kind to there patients that they offer the "very small amount of money" to "test out new drugs" can the HSE tell me if this is even legal...the patients are in there because they are not well....yet there are well enough to sign forms to take part in medical experiments..

Getting paid to assault and abuse patients #clapforscumbags

What an obnoxious post.