Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

is_that_so

kieran26 wrote: »

If everyone granted entry is fully vaciinated or has a recent negative test, where is the danger? It will have to be done sometime. A lot of these business will not be viable without a certain number of people allowed on the premesis.

Seems like a resonable request to me. As long as it is monitored. although i suspect by the time anything is put in place vaccinaation levels will be such that it is not necessary. due to heel dragging form the government.

They may bite on antigen tests, a reasonable compromise, but they don't like the enforceable discriminatory digital cert idea. Hospitality are against the cert idea too.

seamus

Scottish case numbers have potentially peaked, registering a decline 3 days in a row now. Hard to tell as the numbers drop on the weekends, so we'd need to see it do the same for another couple of days.

Very interesting to see if this continues, mostly because as far as I can tell, they've basically done nothing in response. If the decline continues, then in the absence of any more obvious explanation it suggests that their vaccination levels are enough effect some suppression of cases. They're at 50% fully done and another 20% with one dose.

lucernarian

seamus wrote: »

Scottish case numbers have potentially peaked, registering a decline 3 days in a row now. Hard to tell as the numbers drop on the weekends, so we'd need to see it do the same for another couple of days.

Very interesting to see if this continues, mostly because as far as I can tell, they've basically done nothing in response. If the decline continues, then in the absence of any more obvious explanation it suggests that their vaccination levels are enough effect some suppression of cases. They're at 50% fully done and another 20% with one dose.

How will the Govt react, given we will reach that point by July 19th? It would become hard to take NPHET's current predictions seriously, from any perspective, if this trend solidifies.

is_that_so

lucernarian wrote: »

How will the Govt react, given we will reach that point by July 19th? It would become hard to take NPHET's current predictions seriously, from any perspective, if this trend solidifies.

Glynn has said they will adjust their models. TBH it will want to be a model of under 100 cases a day peak for NPHET (and the government) to let go of their pathological fear of indoor activities.

CalamariFritti

Wolf359f wrote: »

Last 4 weeks here 10062 cases, of which 198 hospital admissions: 1.96% admissions (going with a 1 week lag between positive case and admission, it's pretty much the same as cases haven't increased substantially)
Maybe NPHET believe vaccinations case a higher hospitalization figure?
I'm all for being cautious, but jesus it's has a big impact, at least use realistic figures.

I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

So 2% hospital admission rate.

On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

0.0024% case fatality rate.

We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get t IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

0.0024%.

In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

jhegarty

seamus wrote: »

Scottish case numbers have potentially peaked, registering a decline 3 days in a row now. Hard to tell as the numbers drop on the weekends, so we'd need to see it do the same for another couple of days.

Very interesting to see if this continues, mostly because as far as I can tell, they've basically done nothing in response. If the decline continues, then in the absence of any more obvious explanation it suggests that their vaccination levels are enough effect some suppression of cases. They're at 50% fully done and another 20% with one dose.

Increase does appear to be slowing down across the uk, but today's number will be the real test. Last Monday was the last big jump.

is_that_so

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

So 2% hospital admission rate.

On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

0.0024% case fatality rate.

We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get t IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

0.0024%.

In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

IFR has always been the big emotional club to swing around with this and it was incredibly important when we had little mitigation anywhere there were people at risk. Since then and even pre-vaccination it's been of far less concern than the other two, hospital cases and ICU, which can cripple a health system.

Isn't the UK at 1.6% anyway?

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

So 2% hospital admission rate.

On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

0.0024% case fatality rate.

We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get to IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

0.0024%.

In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

There weren't 92,056 hospital attendances from delta, there were only 161,000 cases of Delta total to the end of June

is_that_so

Italy has recorded 31 more deaths on Monday – compared 12 the day before, its health ministry said, while the daily tally of new infections fell to 480 from 808.

CalamariFritti

Deleted User wrote: »

There weren't 92,056 hospital attendances from delta, there were only 161,000 cases of Delta total to the end of June

I can only guess its got to do with them not sequencing/genotyping everything. Probably only the symptomatic/severe cases.

Anyway, these are the numbers Public Health England are reporting. Period is February 1 to June 25. Table 4, page 13.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

brickster69

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

So 2% hospital admission rate.

On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta since Feb 1 2021.

So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

Its an approximation but we dont need the exact figure, ballpark, order of magnitude is all we need.

0.0024% case fatality rate.

We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get to IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

0.0024%.

In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

One unknown is that it appears to be the case that the UK has or very nearly has broken the link between transmission and deaths. If others have done the same is yet to be determined.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I can only guess its got to do with them not sequencing/genotyping everything. Probably only the symptomatic/severe cases.

Anyway, these are the numbers Public Health England are reporting. Period is February 1 to June 25. Table 4, page 13.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997418/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

Here is the relevant data from the report

kieran26

ShooterSF wrote: »

Well for one it is endangering their staff if they aren't fully vaccinated by the time they can do this. Something people seem to keep ignoring as an issue. Pints don't pour themselves.

Free Antigen / PCR tests for staff until they are fully vaccinated. if its good to gain entry as a customer it should be OK for staff too.

Wolf359f

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

So 2% hospital admission rate.

On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

0.0024% case fatality rate.

We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get t IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

0.0024%.

In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

Why are you dividing it by 50?
And why are you using hospital attendance rather than case numbers?

CalamariFritti

Deleted User wrote: »

Here is the relevant data from the report
...

Table 4 is better as it concentrates on delta alone with breakdown by vaccination cohorts. Same numbers anyway.

CalamariFritti

Wolf359f wrote: »

Why are you dividing it by 50?
And why are you using hospital attendance rather than case numbers?

Its an attempt to get to an approximation of CFR. I know there are a number of unknowns but it should be good enough for an approximation. Get to a ballpark number.

If 0.12% of the hospital admissions die and about 2% (1 in 50) of the cases get to hospital in the first place then CFR = 0.12% / 50 = 0.0024%.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Its an attempt to get to an approximation of CFR. I know there are a number of unknowns but it should be good enough for an approximation. Get to a ballpark number.

If 0.12% of the hospital admissions die and about 2% (1 in 50) of the cases get to hospital in the first place then CFR = 0.12% / 50 = 0.0024%.

You're presuming there has been 4.8m delta cases in the UK?

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Table 4 is better as it concentrates on delta alone with breakdown by vaccination cohorts. Same numbers anyway.

And what both tables show is that the 92,000 number is not attendances to hospital, which is actually 7,431

Table 4. Attendance to emergency care and deaths by vaccination status among Delta confirmed cases (sequencing and
genotyping) including all confirmed Delta cases in England, 1 February 2021 to 21 June 2021

CalamariFritti

Deleted User wrote: »

And what both tables show is that the 92,000 number is not attendances to hospital, which is actually 7,431

You seem to be right in saying its not 92,056. Thats why I asked in a previous post for someone to review my interpretation of the data.
I guess I got thrown by the headline of the table but I wont try to make excuses for myself.

I agree now that my line of thought appears to be wrong. And I also must conclude that this data is not suitable to get to a case fatality rate.

However, the overall number however stands, 92,056 delta case / 117 deaths = 0.12%. But ye I got carried away with that divide by 50.

Thanks actually.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

You seem to be right in saying its not 92,056. Thats why I asked in a previous post for someone to review my interpretation of the data.

Since I have people's attention lets try do this together.

I get to 7.931 summing up

2,406
3,460
745
1,320

But that isn't really the right number either. The table seems to distinguish between people attending emergency care once or multiple times.

My adding in my head missed 500. It distinguishes people who had a positive test prior to arrival at hospital and those who tested positive once they attended hospital.

Taken in total, and applying your method, we get 117/7931 = 6.05%.
Divde by 50 = 0.121%.
However the total cases was 92,000 so we get to 0.127%.
0.1% in under 50s, compared to 0.1% for alpha, and 1.1% in over 50s compared to 4.8% in Alpha. The vaccine effect on the older population

Atlantic Dawn

Boris doing a presser now, they will have niteclubs open from the 19th and no more social distancing requirements, masks fully optional. Meanwhile we hold an open air concert with 500 people penned in seperate holding pens like sheep and we think we have put a man on the moon.

Hurrache

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Boris doing a presser now, they will have niteclubs open from the 19th and no more social distancing requirements, masks fully optional. Meanwhile we hold an open air concert with 500 people penned in seperate holding pens like sheep and we think we have put a man on the moon.

"Boris" is just great isn't he.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

"Boris" is just great isn't he.

His health system is anyway

hotmail.com

Looks like England is going back to normal from July 19.

Working class heroes

Boris the Brave........FREEDOM!!!!

jakiah

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Boris doing a presser now, they will have niteclubs open from the 19th and no more social distancing requirements, masks fully optional. Meanwhile we hold an open air concert with 500 people penned in seperate holding pens like sheep and we think we have put a man on the moon.

130,000 at the Austrian Grand Prix this weekend.

hotmail.com

I wonder if the PUP was doubled would the masses support a return to normal?

hotmail.com

jakiah wrote: »

130,000 at the Austrian Grand Prix this weekend.

Irish people have behaved so conservatively throughout this pandemic.

It could be next year before the public support a return to large gatherings.

brickster69

Looks like no rush for the kids to get jabbed until it is proved to be worth the risk for them. Good decision IMO.

AdamD

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1412082604384342018

We're obviously a bit behind but its a pertinet question for the UK at least, if not now, when?

Its a conversation that hasn't even been brought up over here, how do we plan to get back to normal.