Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Lumen

Lumen wrote: »

The UK is governed by a bunch of barely restrained herd-immunity-by-infection lunatics with arts degrees. They're not high minded geniuses.

Harsh on Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance.. unless they don’t agree, do they?

Arghus

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

That's not how it works.

It usually goes as follows:
-Deaths surge
-Tories +5

Boris does seem to be impervious no matter what he does.

They may well push ahead with July 19th, but I really wouldn't be putting the house on it at this stage. Time will tell, one week is a long time at the moment and a fortnight is practically an eternity. And the list of u-turns from Boris and co is fairly extensive. The last big one was only a month ago, in case many have forgotten.

Jim_Hodge

Deleted User wrote: »

Harsh on Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance.. unless they don’t agree, do they?

Governed. Not advised.

"Allowing people to make their own choices on this is, effectively, handing control of the safety of such spaces over to the least informed, least caring and indeed the most callous members of society," said Peter English, former chair of the British Medical Association Public Health Medicine Committee.

timsey tiger

Arghus wrote: »

Boris does seem to be impervious no matter what he does.

They may well push ahead with July 19th, but I really wouldn't be putting the house on it at this stage. Time will tell, one week is a long time at the moment and a fortnight is practically an eternity. And the list of u-turns from Boris and co is fairly extensive. The last big one was only a month ago, in case many have forgotten.

They said the same about Trump until he wasn't.

HalfAndHalf

Skygord wrote: »

Better to reach herd immunity through vaccinations, not infections. UK are far from the % vaccinated needed for herd immunity, and throwing everything open when the Ro is already over 1. It won't go well.

Our ever-increasing, controlled, opening-up can continue until we reach herd immunity through vaccinations, which fortunately we can now measure in weeks not months.

Edit to add: Boris is only going now because the 'vaccination advantage' (as he sees it) over the EU will only last about another 3-4 weeks. It's his last chance, and biggest way, to say "UK got here 1st". IMHO It'll be a disaster, and the end of Boris as PM before Xmas.

It’s stated by most experts and the WHO that between 60-70% fully vaccinated is herd immunity for Covid. The U.K. are at 64% so not sure where you got ‘far from the %’ from.

Good rant though!

is_that_so

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

It’s stated by most experts and the WHO that between 60-70% fully vaccinated is herd immunity for Covid. The U.K. are at 64% so not sure where you got ‘far from the %’ from.

Good rant though!

The UK still has issues with older group hesitancy. In that scenario the risk of serious disease remains. 1 in 4 were not vaccinated in some ethnic groups according to this piece from a month ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/05/one-in-four-elderly-black-people-in-the-uk-still-not-vaccinated

You’ve got to admire the UK for actually trying to do something and trying to find a balance.

When our economy is obliterated we’ll act like we had no choice. We did.

HalfAndHalf

is_that_so wrote: »

The UK still has issues with older group hesitancy. In that scenario the risk of serious disease remains. 1 in 4 were not vaccinated in some ethnic groups according to this piece from a month ago.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/05/one-in-four-elderly-black-people-in-the-uk-still-not-vaccinated

That’s those people’s choice, it doesn’t change the fact that they’re in the agreed range for herd immunity by vaccination.

Trampas

Do we know the breakdown of people in hospital with covid or been admitted and left recently have been vaccinated or not?

Could it be a case of the numbers aren’t what they want to release due to the wrong picture it paints?

tom1ie

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

It’s stated by most experts and the WHO that between 60-70% fully vaccinated is herd immunity for Covid. The U.K. are at 64% so not sure where you got ‘far from the %’ from.

Good rant though!

75-80% was herd immunity for original strain.
Delta could have higher rate due to higher transmission.

Good rant though!

Skygord

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

It’s stated by most experts and the WHO that between 60-70% fully vaccinated is herd immunity for Covid. The U.K. are at 64% so not sure where you got ‘far from the %’ from.

Good rant though!

Ah thanks, I enjoyed it! :-)

I thought we needed about 85-90%, of total population, for herd immunity. That's what I was basing that % comment on. I'll go hunting to see what they are saying about that.

As for Boris, people knew he wanted infection-based herd immunity at the beginning then retreated, if Cummings was right he was pushing for it last Autumn ("Let the bodies pile high"), and he's gone on SO much about the UK being ahead of the EU/World on vaccinations that UK people now needed to see some benefit of that.

IMHO he's backed himself into a corner and this is an all or nothing gamble. Think I'll go see what PP odds are on him being PM at the end of the year.

is_that_so

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

That’s those people’s choice, it doesn’t change the fact that they’re in the agreed range for herd immunity by vaccination.

It distorts what that range might be, which TBH itself is still a guess. Presumed is not actual.

timsey tiger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

It’s stated by most experts and the WHO that between 60-70% fully vaccinated is herd immunity for Covid. The U.K. are at 64% so not sure where you got ‘far from the %’ from.

Good rant though!

Forget the reality in the UK they are at herd immuntiy because experts said it. :rolleyes:

Experts revise their estimates when they get new information. The increases in the UK show that they are far from herd immunity.

HalfAndHalf

tom1ie wrote: »

75-80% was herd immunity for original strain.
Delta could have higher rate due to higher transmission.

Good rant though!

Nope, that’s what Fauci came up with by himself and seeing as he’s proven to make it up as he goes I’ll stick with the WHO and other medical experts.

Also, I need to have had a rant for you to be able to say my ‘Good rant though’ back at me, I didn’t rant so erm…….good one!! LOL!

HalfAndHalf

timsey tiger wrote: »

Forget the reality in the UK they are at herd immuntiy because experts said it. :rolleyes:

Experts revise their estimates when they get new information. The increases in the UK show that they are far from herd immunity.

How so? It’s getting really tiring being held to last years lockdown rules when the majority are now vaccinated.

The vaccine does not stop you catching Covid, it stops a severe response to the virus, we should be governed by ICU and fatalities now of which there are extremely few! Here and in the U.K.!

Meaning that the vast majority of cases are in people with enough immunity to fight it off easily.

AKA - herd immunity.

shinzon

Deleted User wrote: »

You’ve got to admire the UK

HUH whatever about the other restrictions lifting the mask mandate is sheer trumpian levels of lunacy (just how many will take personal responsibility for wearing a mask on buses etc when they dont have to not many id wager) , whitty and vallance both said cases hospitalisations and deaths will rise but **** it well try it anyways.

Nothing to admire tbh

Shin

HalfAndHalf

Skygord wrote: »

Ah thanks, I enjoyed it! :-)

I thought we needed about 85-90%, of total population, for herd immunity. That's what I was basing that % comment on. I'll go hunting to see what they are saying about that.

As for Boris, people knew he wanted infection-based herd immunity at the beginning then retreated, if Cummings was right he was pushing for it last Autumn ("Let the bodies pile high"), and he's gone on SO much about the UK being ahead of the EU/World on vaccinations that UK people now needed to see some benefit of that.

IMHO he's backed himself into a corner and this is an all or nothing gamble. Think I'll go see what PP odds are on him being PM at the end of the year.

85-90% was for Polio.

Regardless, it’s the ICU and fatalities that matter now, we’re still being held to restrictions that were apt last year when there was no vaccine, now is completely different. It’s very rare for there to be a fatality of admission to ICU here so those people that get classed as a daily positive case seemingly have enough immunity to fight it off easily.

timsey tiger

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

How so? It’s getting really tiring being held to last years lockdown rules when the majority are now vaccinated.

The vaccine does not stop you catching Covid, it stops a severe response to the virus, we should be governed by ICU and fatalities now of which there are extremely few! Here and in the U.K.!

Meaning that the vast majority of cases are in people with enough immunity to fight it off easily.

AKA - herd immunity.

Oh right so. You are making up your own definitions. :eek: In future state this up fornt and stop wasting peoples time. :rolleyes:

is_that_so

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

85-90% was for Polio.

Regardless, it’s the ICU and fatalities that matter now, we’re still being held to restrictions that were apt last year when there was no vaccine, now is completely different. It’s very rare for there to be a fatality of admission to ICU here so those people that get classed as a daily positive case seemingly have enough immunity to fight it off easily.

Reduced hospitalisations is disease management not herd immunity. Herd immunity applies to normal life and a lack of required prophylactic measures. Even the WHO, who you've quoted, don't have a definitive % and suggest it can vary.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

ClosedAccountFuzzy

It depends on how it transmits and also on how well the various vaccines are preventing transmission. Most of the discussed efficacy has been exclusively about preventing either bad symptomatic disease or hospitalisation.

I've yet to see data on preventing transmission.

HalfAndHalf

timsey tiger wrote: »

Oh right so. You are making up your own definitions. :eek: In future state this up fornt and stop wasting peoples time. :rolleyes:

How am I making up definitions? Or are you one of those that seem to think if you’re vaccinated then you can’t get a Covid anymore!

Maybe research what immunity means, it doesn’t say it means the majority will not get a particular disease, it states it is when a majority have an immunity to a disease. Being immune to something doesn’t mean you can’t catch something, it means your immune system has the requisite antibodies to fight off a disease.

Also, don’t bother replying, you don’t bring anything to the topic, you just attack and throw stupid accusations.

CalamariFritti

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I know I probably sound like a broken record but here I go again.

So 2% hospital admission rate.

On the 25th the UK gave its latest update on delta monitoring. Where they reported 117 deaths from 92,056 hospital attendances from delta. (not even admissions, attendances, but anyway)

So lets try to work out the case fatality rate then.

117 from 92,056 is 0.12% Divided by 50 is 0.0024%.

0.0024% case fatality rate.

We dont even need to try to work the 'dark figure' of undetected cases into this now to get t IFR. Which is probably another factor of 5 or 10 or whatever.

0.0024%.

In the current situation delta isn't even the flu.

For everyone and the record and the people who thanked my OP in particular.

While the hospitalisation rate appears low and the death rate very low and undoubtedly there is a dark figure that makes those numbers even lower...

My attempt at amateur statistics went fairly arseways, I definitely read that table wrong and my 0.0024% is definitely wrong, possibly by quite a bit. Quite embarrassing really, but fair is fair. I'd like to see myself as someone who thinks in facts and I certainly dont want to make up any 'facts' and when I get things (very) wrong I have to hold up my hand and say so.

Thanks to those who set me right.

brickster69

timsey tiger wrote: »

The increases in the UK show that they are far from herd immunity.

Increases in what exactly ?

HalfAndHalf

is_that_so wrote: »

Reduced hospitalisations is disease management not herd immunity. Herd immunity applies to normal life and a lack of required prophylactic measures. Even the WHO, who you've quoted, don't have a definitive % and suggest it can vary.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

Disease management is the restrictions we’re under.

Disease management is also things like Parkinson’s meds or blood pressure meds.

Reduced hospitalisations and fatalities are a direct result of vaccinations. Of which there are 16 in ICU and we are seeing almost zero fatalities for a fair time now.

So do we wait and say we only have herd immunity when someone invents a vaccine that means nobody can catch Covid.

shinzon

shinzon wrote: »

HUH whatever about the other restrictions lifting the mask mandate is sheer trumpian levels of lunacy (just how many will take personal responsibility for wearing a mask on buses etc when they dont have to not many id wager) , whitty and vallance both said cases hospitalisations and deaths will rise but **** it well try it anyways.

Nothing to admire tbh

Shin

We didn’t have a mask mandate until August 2020 and we were grand before the mandate. Nothing out of the ordinary will happen when masks are gone.

tom1ie

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Nope, that’s what Fauci came up with by himself and seeing as he’s proven to make it up as he goes I’ll stick with the WHO and other medical experts.

Also, I need to have had a rant for you to be able to say my ‘Good rant though’ back at me, I didn’t rant so erm…….good one!! LOL!

Yeah good rant.
Prof Micheal olsterholm has said 75-80 since (feb2020) and again he states the higher herd immunity with delta.
Not just him plenty of others.

bloopy

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0705/1233041-covid-19/

Mr Martin added that it was too early to say whether vaccine certificates will be needed for other activities beyond indoor dining, but recalled that it was Government policy not to implement vaccine certificates up until advice was received from NPHET last week.

Potential mission creep about to begin?

tom1ie

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Ah you’re just being silly now, for someone that tries to insult me in every post (yet hasn’t made a single valid individual contribution) you could at least think up some of your own insults instead of repeating mine, which wasn’t even an insult it was a congrats on the Boris rant!

Plus, I still haven’t ranted.

If it makes you feel any better let’s just say your latest 10 minute Google to find something that suits your narrative makes you right. You’ll feel better, I won’t care less.

Sorted.

Sure. Good lad.
Haven’t insulted you at all.
I have spoke about prof Michael olsterholm since thread 1 of this, but whatever floats your boat.

HalfAndHalf

tom1ie wrote: »

Yeah good rant.
Prof Micheal olsterholm has said 75-80 since (feb2020) and again he states the higher herd immunity with delta.
Not just him plenty of others.

Ah well if there’s ‘plenty of others’ said it then it must be true. Damn those ‘others’ and their words.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2



I can Google search plenty of articles that say you can’t have here immunity with Covid and plenty with the original 60-70%.

The fact is, if ICU and fatality numbers are down to such low numbers the evidence is that the majority of cases are in people who’s immune system has built up immunity and can fight the virus with minimal or no symptoms.

HalfAndHalf

tom1ie wrote: »

Sure. Good lad.
Haven’t insulted you at all.
I have spoke about prof Michael olsterholm since thread 1 of this, but whatever floats your boat.

Yeah I deleted that post, the ‘good rant’ bit made me think you were the other poster.

I deleted it in about 20 seconds so clearly you were waiting for a reply though, odd.