Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

AdamD

Turtwig wrote: »

The mix of unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated and fully vaccinated with inadequate immune response means there is a selective pressure for a variant to emerge with vaccine evasion properties. One that can only infect the unvaccinated is at disadvantage. Any that has any sort of property that helps it infect the vaccinated will be advantageous.

It's an interesting question. There's no pressure in an unvaccinated population for an evasive variant to emerge. Sheer number of infections means it could. In the vaccinated population with a sizeable amount still unvaccinated there's greater pressure but far less numbers.

It's not an experiment a vaccinated society should be running. Especially in the UK where they have very good uptake. The unvaccinated will likely take a vaccine when it's offered to them. They're effectively gambling that it won't happen in the timeframe it takes to get everyone fully vaccinated. It's a gamble that potentially has global repurcussions if it backfires.

But why the specific focus on the UK? Most countries are running vaccination programmes right now and they all have covid spreading within the community, with varying levels of vaccination across the world. They are all 'factories' for variants. This just comes across as another reason to kick any reopening down the road.

In two months time maybe the UK has every adult vaccinated, but that still leaves everyone under the age of 18 unvaccinated, 20% of the population. It will remain a variant 'factory'. So when do they open, are we now suggesting we need 100% vaccination across the population?

And underneath all of this people need to start considering that there is more going on in the world than covid, it can't continue to dominate every policy decision.

Turtwig

AdamD wrote: »

But why the specific focus on the UK? Most countries are running vaccination programmes right now and they all have covid spreading within the community, with varying levels of vaccination across the world. They are all 'factories' for variants. This just comes across as another reason to kick any reopening down the road.

In two months time maybe the UK has every adult vaccinated, but that still leaves everyone under the age of 18 unvaccinated, 20% of the population. It will remain a variant 'factory'. So when do they open, are we now suggesting we need 100% vaccination across the population?

And underneath all of this people need to start considering that there is more going on in the world than covid, it can't continue to dominate every policy decision.

I don't think the focus is even on the UK. It's just England. Many countries won't have the luxury of avoiding the experiment due to poorer vaccine uptake levels. England doesn't have that problem. It's such an unnecessary experiment for them to take.

Under 18s will eventually be vaccinated. Spare a thought for parents of cohort 4 children in England. The child isn't yet vaccinated and is still extremely medically vulnerable to covid. The at risk children will definitely have to be vaccinated.

blowitupref

Leo Varadkar talking directly to ISAG and RTE (especially George Lee???

I'd warn against any “spiral of fear” because vaccines offers such protection

"I want to reassure people, you will see cases rise dramatically over the next few weeks, but it's not the same as it was back in the Alpha wave or last year… the Delta wave will be different, let’s avoid a cycle of fear”

I'm not predicting any specific case number, but in principle cases could increase dramatically without an increase of similar scale on hospitalisations.

Peter Flynt

blowitupref wrote: »

Leo Varadkar talking directly to ISAG and RTE (especially George Lee???

I'd warn against any “spiral of fear” because vaccines offers such protection

"I want to reassure people, you will see cases rise dramatically over the next few weeks, but it's not the same as it was back in the Alpha wave or last year… the Delta wave will be different, let’s avoid a cycle of fear”

I'm not predicting any specific case number, but in principle cases could increase dramatically without an increase of similar scale on hospitalisations.

That guy is a moron.

Says one thing in the morning and the complete opposite in the afternoon.

A total chancer.

Widdensushi

I was listening to radio 1 earlier, Sam mcconkey, obviously with doomsday scenarios, we have to design theatres so people can go there and be safe, these measures will be here for several/seven years (not sure which he said). Followed by an interview with a doctor Martin coyne, I presumed it would be to balance the discussion which is the format these discussions take but no, he basically agreed with everything Sam had said and added that most people have long covid. A balanced discussion and either of these 2 could be fact checked, because what I heard was their opinions with no basis or facts to back it up, but we are in a North Korea situation where the one line is being pushed. We need to be careful or they will start blocking our Internet access.

Once again, another day of absolutely miserable rain. I see floods forming and have heard thunder. This is our peak summer month...

Outdoor summer is simply not viable in this country.

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

The mix of unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated and fully vaccinated with inadequate immune response means there is a selective pressure for a variant to emerge with vaccine evasion properties. One that can only infect the unvaccinated is at disadvantage. Any that has any sort of property that helps it infect the vaccinated will be advantageous.

It's an interesting question. There's no pressure in an unvaccinated population for an evasive variant to emerge. Sheer number of infections means it could. In the vaccinated population with a sizeable amount still unvaccinated there's greater pressure but far less numbers.

It's not an experiment a vaccinated society should be running. Especially in the UK where they have very good uptake. The unvaccinated will likely take a vaccine when it's offered to them. They're effectively gambling that it won't happen in the timeframe it takes to get everyone fully vaccinated. It's a gamble that potentially has global repurcussions if it backfires.

That's true but at the same time it's not quite so simple. While it does create selective pressure to evade immunity, there is still pressure against it. It's a bit of a tug of war.

To use an example a few months back multiple lineages of Alpha were discovered in the UK with the E484K mutation which is the mutation most strongly associated with resistance to antibodies. Notably none of these lineages had much success and died out. Similar has been seen in other lineages during the duration of the pandemic. That suggests that such mutations do not always offer a net benefit in terms of overall fitness.

MerlinSouthDub

Deleted User wrote: »

Once again, another day of absolutely miserable rain. I see floods forming and have heard thunder. This is our peak summer month...

Outdoor summer is simply not viable in this country.

But our bad weather is also why we shouldn’t open indoor dining (not yet). In Europe, everyone wants to eat outdoors in the summer so opening indoors makes little difference. But, as you point out, our bad weather will mean indoor dining is heavily used, leading to a surge in infection rates.

Turtwig

Turtwig wrote: »

I don't think the focus is even on the UK. It's just England. Many countries won't have the luxury of avoiding the experiment due to poorer vaccine uptake levels. England doesn't have that problem. It's such an unnecessary experiment for them to take.

Under 18s will eventually be vaccinated. Spare a thought for parents of cohort 4 children in England. The child isn't yet vaccinated and is still extremely medically vulnerable to covid. The at risk children will definitely have to be vaccinated.

How can you possibly say that? Or are you assuming that Covid is the only issue that they care about as a country?

Perhaps their finances are not looking good at all. Maybe another summer of closed businesses would have had a huge impact on the country.

snotboogie

Turtwig wrote: »

The mix of unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated and fully vaccinated with inadequate immune response means there is a selective pressure for a variant to emerge with vaccine evasion properties. One that can only infect the unvaccinated is at disadvantage. Any that has any sort of property that helps it infect the vaccinated will be advantageous.

It's an interesting question. There's no pressure in an unvaccinated population for an evasive variant to emerge. Sheer number of infections means it could. In the vaccinated population with a sizeable amount still unvaccinated there's greater pressure but far less numbers.

It's not an experiment a vaccinated society should be running. Especially in the UK where they have very good uptake. The unvaccinated will likely take a vaccine when it's offered to them. They're effectively gambling that it won't happen in the timeframe it takes to get everyone fully vaccinated. It's a gamble that potentially has global repurcussions if it backfires.

I'm not sure that there is the selective pressure you think there is. Partial vaccination does not create the same selective pressure as partial antibiotic courses, which is comparison I keep seeing online.

Either way, open societies with partially vaccinated populations are absolutely inevitable as vaccines become more widely available. It's already happening in the US, no way the likes of Brazil and India stay locked down as they vaccinate towards critical mass, African countries will eventually get vaccinated and are largely incapable of enforcing lockdowns.

bodhrandude

Any case numbers today.

corkie

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1412452953911406593


As of midnight, Monday 5th July, we are reporting
397*
confirmed cases of #COVID19.

16 in ICU. 54 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.


Still below 400? Get your info somewhere else tomorrow, site going read only.

Stheno

bodhrandude wrote: »

Any case numbers today.

Here ya go

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1412453065458868228?s=20

marno21

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1412453846304104452?s=21

54 people in hospital. Very concerning.

iamwhoiam

marno21 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1412453846304104452?s=21

54 people in hospital. Very concerning.

The word “ concerning “ is like white noise at this stage

Cork2021

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The word “ concerning “ is like white noise at this stage

Era when isn’t he concerned! They need to start updating the hub more frequently now as well. Looks to me as there’s been no discharges the last few days

Stheno

Cork2021 wrote: »

Era when isn’t he concerned! They need to start updating the hub more frequently now as well. Looks to me as there’s been no discharges the last few days

That's the 8am hospital figure it may drop when they update it at 8pm

bodhrandude

marno21 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1412453846304104452?s=21

54 people in hospital. Very concerning.

So what does he want us to do about it, can't comply anymore than we're complying.

giveitholly

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The word “ concerning “ is like white noise at this stage

But new admissions are flat
https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1412458457702219778?s=19

Stheno

giveitholly wrote: »

But new admissions are flat
https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1412458457702219778?s=19

Wait for the 8pm number this evening

zuutroy

Concerning increase indeed. He didn't even bother to look at the admissions, just saw the net number going up and decided to make a correlation.

Edit: Beaten to it I see!

FintanMcluskey

Leo’s concerned about the uk reopening in a fortnight

We can forget about any further relaxation in Ireland this summer

Leo Varadkar has slammed Boris Johnson’s decision for “gambling” in announcing an end to lockdown on July 19.

And he defended the move to postpone the reopening of indoor eating and drinking here this week as “the right decision.”

castletownman

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Once again, another day of absolutely miserable rain. I see floods forming and have heard thunder. This is our peak summer month...

Outdoor summer is simply not viable in this country.

I'm just back from having a pint in two different pubs that have been open for outdoor.

Elderly clientele indoors in both places out of the rain, and gardai a few doors down not batting an eyelid.

I can assume most places are doing the same.

is_that_so

castletownman wrote: »

I'm just back from having a pint in two different pubs that have been open for outdoor.

Elderly clientele indoors in both places out of the rain, and gardai a few doors down not batting an eyelid.

I can assume most places are doing the same.

It's called self-policing!

Strazdas

castletownman wrote: »

I'm just back from having a pint in two different pubs that have been open for outdoor.

Elderly clientele indoors in both places out of the rain, and gardai a few doors down not batting an eyelid.

I can assume most places are doing the same.

The fact that they are all likely to be doubly vaccinated no doubt a big factor.

KrustyUCC

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The word “ concerning “ is like white noise at this stage

The boy who cried wolf

Tony's always concerned

KrustyUCC

Tony's concern to feature heavily on the 9 o'clock news no doubt

FintanMcluskey

castletownman wrote: »

I'm just back from having a pint in two different pubs that have been open for outdoor.

Elderly clientele indoors in both places out of the rain, and gardai a few doors down not batting an eyelid.

I can assume most places are doing the same.

I see this point frequently being made but I don’t follow it

For a start most places aren’t doing it and just because some are does that justify the others being closed??

Also, we don’t want to go down a road where law breaking to have a pint is our only hope at normality

castletownman

castletownman wrote: »

I'm just back from having a pint in two different pubs that have been open for outdoor.

Elderly clientele indoors in both places out of the rain, and gardai a few doors down not batting an eyelid.

I can assume most places are doing the same.

Local cops have been ringing the hotel here after gathering intelligence that there are 2 weddings on there this weekend. They want to make sure there is no music whatsoever and everyone out at half 11. They called in person twice to make sure the message was clear.

Depends on where you are, really.

Cork2021

It’s very concerning

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1412458923416821762?s=21