Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117666402#Comment_117666402

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117666402#Comment_117666402

Was going to leave it , but the utter sxxxe from that guy that's being thanked and lapped up by some very gullible people on here deserves reply.

Vaccination among healthcare workers is up in the 90% for Covid . Voluntarily, I might add .

Flu vaccination in recent years was in the 60 s . Because Covid is not the flu .

Some of the posters here have shipped over from the Relaxations thread because a) a few are banned there ,and b) nothing going on there now as pubs etc are open .

Here we are with a successful vaccination campaign that has reduced serious illness and deaths ,and most cases are mild , moderate in those admitted with underlying conditions mainly , but yet somehow the posters who are now posting here are trying to rewrite the mayhem that happened in our hospitals , particularly in the early months this year .

Do I have to explain again how sick people were, even the few that tested positive when admitted for something else , because only emergencies were being admitted then as we were swamped ...or that when cases were so high in the community health care workers got infected and passed it onto vulnerable patients in some hospitals ?

This has been discussed and gone into in depth over all these Covid threads.

Yes this did increase the numbers , but these outbreaks were detailed before the hack. And numbers of patients tested in hospital or suspected cases tested on admission were also detailed.

It makes little difference as the burden is the same , as patients with Covid or anything else with this infectious disease still put pressure on beds, isolation facilities and nursing care like no other infectious disease any of us have ever seen in our lifetime .

The fact that now when we are coming near the end of this that some would now be trying to disingenuously ingratiate themselves on the thread having (re) reg'd 10 or 11 days ago , calling it all a hoax , just beggars belief .

The only difference clarity in the numbers would make is to show people that our vaccinations are in the main working and that some of those that are being admitted now are not swamping the system .

I know some of the hospitals in the NI are under pressure even with less severe illness , due to the high numbers of "moderate" cases being admitted .

Hopefully that won't happen here at the rate our vaccinations are going and that we are only now opening up , and I am genuinely feeling positive for the first time in the last 18 months .

ICU cases are 40% older residual cases but the rest are new admissions , very sick people ..

That is all I have to say about that .

As for the exact breakdown of numbers presently in hospital ..It was within Dr Leo's remit to ask for clarity on this whenever ,, which would have been more in his line to do a year or more ago , but no doubt this is a move to improve his image before the next term of Taoiseach comes around especially after his party's poor show at the recent bye election , so we can brace ourselves for more of the same .

stephenjmcd

10 more cases than this day last week. Perhaps too soon to say we've leveled off, would need a few more days but certainly looks like it on the 7 day average

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1420063991204925448?s=19

is_that_so

As for the exact breakdown of numbers presently in hospital ..It was within Dr Leo's remit to ask for clarity on this whenever ,, which would have been more in his line to do a year or more ago , but no doubt this is a move to improve his image before the next term of Taoiseach comes around especially after his party's poor show at the recent bye election , so we can brace ourselves for more of the same .

While the link between cases and hospitalisations was consistent it didn't really matter. Now that has changed and that link looks to be broken with numbers not getting anywhere near NPHET claims so they become real life data for the government to use, especially to push back on modelling and to make other decisions about easing restrictions.

Speak Now

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669682#Comment_117669682

Not seeing the explosion at all, I wonder have we peaked around 1300 per day.

Mike3549

Wait for tomorrow, Wednesday bump and stuff.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669682#Comment_117669682

Hospital increases are moving very slowly and probably unlikely to shoot up at this stage.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669719#Comment_117669719

Cases don't matter now, just hospital numbers.

Marty Bird

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117668006#Comment_117668006

I wasn’t implying that you made it up, but if there’s no capacity in the private system surely I would have had a similar wait time.

At the start of July, NPHET told the Government that it needed to retain the ban on indoor dining for three weeks, and after that to introduce a system of discrimination based on vaccination status to access indoor dining.

This was based on the following projection of numbers from 1st July to 30th September:

It is beginning to look as though NPHET's modelling has been catastrophically flawed, with serious economic consequences and social divisions arising as a direct result of this modelling.

It now looks likely that even their projections for the "no delta variant" aren't going to be met on any of their four metrics, except - just maybe, and just by a whisper - the number of cases, and that their projections on the influence of the Delta variant have been - to put it politely - utter fantasy.

A full public inquiry now must be held into NPHET's activities during the pandemic, encompassing all meeting notes and recordings, internal communications, private WhatsApps and e-mails between NPHET members, and how and by whom decisions were made on the advice given to the elected Government with the intention of achieving a change in its policy. The compiling of this projection and its communication to Government appears to have been either incompetence or sabotage.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117668420#Comment_117668420

Some people just love ''the rules''.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669683#Comment_117669683

They weren't " claims " ..it was projections based on variables , which changed even while those models were being worked through.

NIAC recommendations for vaccination with AZ and Jand J for younger age groups and subsequent ramping up of the vaccination program to include those down to 18 and now 16 and 17 year olds. Also the fact that indoor hospitality was pushed out another week while this was happening has ensured we are now way ahead of previous projections and will more likely have most of the population over 12 offered a first dose before end of August .

Big difference to what could have happened if we had followed the same path of infection as NI , for example.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669799#Comment_117669799

Given the models are so far out they are now claims. You'd fire economists for models like this! Models are useful to work with, but if they are the only thing driving government policy they need to be a whole lot more reliable. There are issues around these types of models and maybe when this is all over they'll look at adding other variables like public responses.

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669776#Comment_117669776

We've had over 21000 cases in July alone from what I can add up, so I'd suspect the optimistic model is probably closer to what may happen, if things remain as they are for case numbers

Or perhaps somewhere in between no delta and optimistic if we see a drop

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669838#Comment_117669838

On cases maybe but rest is more like no Delta!

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669837#Comment_117669837

They always have confidence intervals built in though .

Some people just take the headline from the journalists that go with the most extreme and then come back a few weeks later with " see they were manipulating / massaging the figures ! " .

ceadaoin.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669302#Comment_117669302

I'm out of this board now. It's extremely worrying and scary the level of support for the vaccine passports. If anyone thinks it will stay at just these vaccines they are idiots. They are already talking about 6 month boosters (something an effective vaccine shouldn't need.) Easy to make those compulsory too with the vaccine/"health" pass. Sign up for it and you have to do whatever is dictated to you indefintely in order to participate in society. Have they said that they will only be in place for duration of the pandemic or set an end date for their use?

It's taken centuries to build western societies and to have the freedoms and equality that we all take for granted. Sad how people are willing to give it all away just like that.

KrustyUCC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669776#Comment_117669776

NPHET have themselves covered so far

"It is noteworthy across all scenarios that case counts rise very slowly during July 2021. However, the seeds of future growth are sown at this time, and case counts increase exponentially through August 2021 until a combination of vaccine-induced and infection-induced immunity slows growth through September and October 2021. "

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669868#Comment_117669868

Confidence intervals are only as good as the data input and the assumptions underlying them. Some of that was clearly wrong. The biggest mistake IMO was to look to the UK as a model of what would happen. The table above shows just how far out they are but they are the "sobering numbers" that they presented to government. TBH I don't mind them being wrong but plamasing the rest of us as an explanation and not admitting they got things wrong does cast doubt on their credibility.

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669776#Comment_117669776

Are we not on track to surpass their optimistic scenario cases _if_ cases plateau now, and without everything even being (officially) open?

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669903#Comment_117669903

The basis of the advice was really Central 1 & Central 2, numbers we may not even reach by Christmas!

Cork2021

This lad hoped the numbers would go up! Absolute looper!!

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1420073697315012613?s=21

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669896#Comment_117669896

I don't disagree with you , as I have said similar .

The big issues that changed our outlook from that of UK was postponing indoor hospitality and ramping up our vaccinations , which was the right thing to do, so if that dubious modelling got us to our goal of reducing the impact of Delta to negligible, I am ok with that .

Others may not be, as I appreciate nobody likes being told what looks like porkies but is in fact just not as clear as it could be .

I can guarantee that no enquiry or tribunal after the fact will place any blame on any health official as has been the case since the state was founded ! ;)

Not saying that is right , mind you .

muddypuppy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669921#Comment_117669921

I'm pretty sure he is saying that he's happy the numbers are at least back into the range predicted by NPHET, instead of being higher. I don't like some of his opinions, but let's not put words he didn't say in his mouth - nobody is hoping for more cases.

TefalBrain

Fully vaccinated here and a complete believer in the vaccines but there is zero chance i'll be showing any vaccine pass to enter a pub. The flu is very dangerous also will they be asking for a pass for that in the near future?

Jim_Hodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669921#Comment_117669921

You've completely misinterpreted what he was saying. Not that I agree with his logic but the figures up to today's were in excess of the Pessimistic scenario so he's happy we're back down on their flow of cases. It's a twisted logic but he wasn't delighted cases went up - which they didn't anyway.

Ficheall

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669921#Comment_117669921

No, he had hoped that the high cases were due to football/post-leaving cert stuff, and that today's lower cases were indicative that things weren't as bad as previous days had suggested.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669876#Comment_117669876

I agree. It's frightening, but it's not really surprising in Ireland because of the non-functioning fourth estate and the lack of opposition.

I'm keeping my eye on the US. A strong US is the final bulwark against vaccine passports, in my opinion.

bucketybuck

I had to laugh at Leo on Newstalk today, all Billy Big Balls talking about how he wanted more data about covid numbers in hospitals, how it was important to know if they caught covid in hospital or were there for some other reason etc etc.

Fucking hilarious. Hey Leo, March 2020 called, it wants its completely obvious question back! Coming into August 2021 and now he wants to know the real data about covid admissions? Doesn't he know that the bedwetters have been calling that irrelevant for 18 months now?

A day late and a dollar short, nothing new there from our useless government.

podgeandrodge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117669776#Comment_117669776

They are HIGH figures! I suppose if there were 25 daily additions to hospital by end Sept. the figure could get to the optimistic hospitalisation figure, but ICU would be highly unlikely unless things seriously go downhill.

Anyone with half a brain cell pissed themselves laughing when they saw NPHETs doomsday models.

We should have been back to normal the minute the over 60s were fully vaccinated. It’s all nonsense at this point.

Sad that our government have made laws/policies based on these silly models.