Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Rx713B

is_that_so wrote: »

Originally it was until June but that could well be extended. I'd guess at a further 3 months if they do and then an end to it.

Cheers - hard one to call if it falls over to next year and they introduce it again i'm snookered -

Lumen

poppers wrote: »

this day last yr there were 545 in hospital. id say we will be close to 50 before may is out.

It's possible to reach all sorts of conclusions by staring at the data long enough. :pac:

Hospital admission numbers seem to be having a bit of an upward blip at the moment, while the cases in hospital continue to decline steadily.

Admissions are a leading indicator, we saw this trend in late 2020 as overall cases were rising, but hopefully it's just noise.

Lumen

Lumen wrote: »

It's possible to reach all sorts of conclusions by staring at the data long enough. :pac:

Hospital admission numbers seem to be having a bit of an upward blip at the moment, while the cases in hospital continue to decline steadily.

Admissions are a leading indicator, we saw this trend in late 2020 as overall cases were rising, but hopefully it's just noise.

Due to vaccination, a larger portion of cases are among those not already in hospital, so for the same number of cases, you can have both falling numbers of overall hospital cases and a slight increase in daily admissions. The was some stay duration data posted recently which shows that even allowing for age, the mean duration is also falling

poppers

Lumen wrote: »

It's possible to reach all sorts of conclusions by staring at the data long enough. :pac:

Hospital admission numbers seem to be having a bit of an upward blip at the moment, while the cases in hospital continue to decline steadily.

Admissions are a leading indicator, we saw this trend in late 2020 as overall cases were rising, but hopefully it's just noise.

Donegal has had sky high number per head of poup for the past few months, there are currently 4 people in Letterkenny hospital, The eldery and many of the vunerable are now vaccinated so it looks to me that while case numbers may be hig the vaccine is stopping this leading to severe disease which is what we have been told was the data from trials and now playing out in real life.

WHO & World Gov will need to move on to a new metric for restrictions as case numbers no longer warrant severe lock downs

Lumen

Deleted User wrote: »

Due to vaccination, a larger portion of cases are among those not already in hospital, so for the same number of cases, you can have both falling numbers of overall hospital cases and a slight increase in daily admissions. The was some stay duration data posted recently which shows that even allowing for age, the mean duration is also falling

Indeed, it was me that posted it.

But that's more of a medium-duration change, the recent slight uptick in admissions with is a quite short term phenomenon. As I said, I hope it's just noise.

It'd be good to see admissions returning to what we saw last summer.

poppers wrote: »

Donegal has had sky high number per head of poup for the past few months, there are currently 4 people in Letterkenny hospital, The eldery and many of the vunerable are now vaccinated so it looks to me that while case numbers may be hig the vaccine is stopping this leading to severe disease which is what we have been told was the data from trials and now playing out in real life.

WHO & World Gov will need to move on to a new metric for restrictions as case numbers no longer warrant severe lock downs

The WHO doesn't make restrictions, that's a national government thing.

Also, I was kind of with you until "World Gov"

poppers

poppers wrote: »

Donegal has had sky high number per head of poup for the past few months, there are currently 4 people in Letterkenny hospital, The eldery and many of the vunerable are now vaccinated so it looks to me that while case numbers may be hig the vaccine is stopping this leading to severe disease which is what we have been told was the data from trials and now playing out in real life.

WHO & World Gov will need to move on to a new metric for restrictions as case numbers no longer warrant severe lock downs

Sky high?

marno21

We haven’t had less than 300 cases per day in 5 months now and we’re at 104 in hospital and dropping.

July 5th seems a bit late for pubs. They could easily bring that forward 2 weeks and save more of the summer for those businesses.

By then we’ll have the vulnerable and 50+ vaccinated.

Heading into the August BH last year we had 6 in hospital and 4 in critical care. We will be there again soon

hmmm

Klonker wrote: »

Hopefully the government and NPHET might speed up the reopening similar to last year. There's no reason outdoor dining couldnt open now and indoor in early June.

Even though I think we should be aggressive about reopening, I think you have to offer a vaccine to everyone who wants one before you do something like reopening indoors. We know that having unvaccinated people indoors is going to lead to rapid community spread. The obvious answer to speed up things is to allow vaccinated people meet indoors, but blah blah unfairness blah blah. We could do this today.

MerlinSouthDub

hmmm wrote: »

We know that having unvaccinated people indoors is going to lead to rapid community spread.

The reproductive rate will be pushed down heavily with 65% of adults vaccinated by mid June. So, even if we do reopen indoors we won't see anything like the rapid community spread which we saw in December, for example. I think we can be a little bit more aggressive and bring things forward by a couple of weeks.

I also think outdoor dining should be opened right now. I actually think it's much safer than allowing people to travel anywhere in the country, for example.

ArthurDayne

hmmm wrote: »

Even though I think we should be aggressive about reopening, I think you have to offer a vaccine to everyone who wants one before you do something like reopening indoors. We know that having unvaccinated people indoors is going to lead to rapid community spread. The obvious answer to speed up things is to allow vaccinated people meet indoors, but blah blah unfairness blah blah. We could do this today.

As long as a significant number of those most likely to die or wind up in ICU from Covid have been vaccinated then rapid community spread will not matter as much. If we are going to wait until everyone is offered a vaccine then almost by definition we cannot pursue an aggressive reopening strategy.

bucketybuck

is_that_so wrote: »

That is dependent on how many people they get vaccinated, supposed to be 270K shots this week.

It was supposed to be dependent on how many people were actually getting sick.

First Up

Jim_Hodge wrote:

Did you hear the question? It referred to Supermarket sellers. How many supermarkets are selling them?

The question is not the issue. The criticism of Lidl wasn't supported by data on the quality of the test kits they sell. Nor was it supported by anything to show that people using Antigen kits bought in Lidl are less rigorous than people using Antigen kits bought anywhere else.

Of course Antigen kits should be treated with caution and of course a negative Antigen test doesn't mean you can ignore safety precautions. But that applies to all Antigen test kits; picking Lidl's out for criticism distorts that message.

Plus I have heard Kingston Mills and others strongly advocate the responsible use of Antigen tests. It would be a disgrace if a swipe at Lidl because its where people also buy sausages reduced their use.

And by the way, I rarely if ever shop in Lidl.

marno21

358 +ve swabs from 16,763 tests. 2.14% positivity.

Ficheall

" Since March 2021, Public Health Mid-West has managed 27 outbreaks in schools and early education settings, involving 197 Covid-19 cases.

The vast majority of these have been linked to clusters outside of schools, including birthday parties, indoor social gatherings, family and household clusters, household transmission linked to workplace situations, car-pooling, and public transport."
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40286414.html

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
I get that on balance schools need to be back, but they seem to be trying a little bit too hard with the magical forcefield around school buildings.

is_that_so

bucketybuck wrote: »

It was supposed to be dependent on how many people were actually getting sick.

More people vaccinated fewer people at risk of getting sick ...

bucketybuck

is_that_so wrote: »

More people vaccinated fewer people at risk of getting sick ...

That's not the point and you know it.

poppers

Lumen wrote: »

Indeed, it was me that posted it.

But that's more of a medium-duration change, the recent slight uptick in admissions with is a quite short term phenomenon. As I said, I hope it's just noise.

It'd be good to see admissions returning to what we saw last summer.



The WHO doesn't make restrictions, that's a national government thing.

Also, I was kind of with you until "World Gov"

was meant to read world goverments i agree it sounds like i meant the illuminati

is_that_so

bucketybuck wrote: »

That's not the point and you know it.

Well it's always good when posters manage more than a terse one liner. It gives people a sense of a cogent argument. If it's not the point then I clearly had poor source material to work off.

FintanMcluskey

marno21 wrote: »

We haven’t had less than 300 cases per day in 5 months now and we’re at 104 in hospital and dropping.

July 5th seems a bit late for pubs. They could easily bring that forward 2 weeks and save more of the summer for those businesses.

By then we’ll have the vulnerable and 50+ vaccinated.

Heading into the August BH last year we had 6 in hospital and 4 in critical care. We will be there again soon

If we apply the metrics used to initially close the pubs and other hospitality facilities way way back in March 2020, which was protect the health service and buy time, we could resume normality right now.

We changed the metrics along the way, to a just in case.

The vaccine is a fantastic bit of kit, the fact the HCWs and most vulnerable are vaccinated means this is over with a good while, but there is a some citizens at a small risk due to underlying issues cohort 7 that are still content for everyone else to continue to wait for them to be vaccinated.

Our magical reopening which began yesterday still leaves us more suppressed than France which appears to have a faster roadmap.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thelocal.fr/20210511/cafes-shops-cinemas-how-france-will-ease-covid-restrictions-from-next-week/%3famp

May 19th

Bars and restaurants can reopen their outdoor terraces at a 50 percent capacity and with six people per table maximum. All customers must be seated. Indoor areas remain closed.

Chris_5339762

marno21 wrote: »

358 +ve swabs from 16,763 tests. 2.14% positivity.

Thats a cracker today, nice low positivity. Percentages are one thing, but that means that only 1 in 50 tests are yielding a positive.

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

" Since March 2021, Public Health Mid-West has managed 27 outbreaks in schools and early education settings, involving 197 Covid-19 cases.

The vast majority of these have been linked to clusters outside of schools, including birthday parties, indoor social gatherings, family and household clusters, household transmission linked to workplace situations, car-pooling, and public transport."
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40286414.html

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm....
I get that on balance schools need to be back, but they seem to be trying a little bit too hard with the magical forcefield around school buildings.

317 positive testes from 13,403 contact tracing tests conducted in 329 facilities since the easter break suggests schools are operating just fine at full capacity. Thats 40 tests conducted per outbreak requiring contract tracing

ShineOn7

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Thats a cracker today, nice low positivity. Percentages are one thing, but that means that only 1 in 50 tests are yielding a positive.

And statistically about 25-33% will be Asymptomatic

Amazing numbers

I firmly believe that if we tested 50,000 tomorrow it would yield about a 1.5 % positivity rate

The UAE today:

• 177,688 tests
• 1614
• 0.91%

Mass testing roots out Asymptomatic cases and says "Aha! Nice try fcuker"

Soon, 40 percent of the adult population will be vaccinated.

Time to cancel negative NPHET meetings. They're not needed anymore.

If Philip Nolan wants to continue making slides for the next 6-months, he can publish them online somewhere.

Government needs to take back control and steer the agenda - starting by opening up to a faster degree!

bb1234567

eskimohunt wrote: »

Soon, 40 percent of the adult population will be vaccinated.

Time to cancel negative NPHET meetings. They're not needed anymore.

If Philip Nolan wants to continue making slides for the next 6-months, he can publish them online somewhere.

Government needs to take back control and steer the agenda - starting by opening up to a faster degree!

Nothing wrong with the meetings, whoever wants to watch them can. I doubt most will indulge in them any longer if many still do. Media has already pretty much moved on from COVID, even Micheal Martin today said governments main focus of attention going forward is housing crisis. I watched ITV news this morning and COVID barely was mentioned, just a small segment at the end of the show.

Ficheall

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

marno21 wrote: »

358 +ve swabs from 16,763 tests. 2.14% positivity.

Percentages are one thing, but that means that only 1 in 50 tests are yielding a positive.

Well, fractions are one thing, but that means the ratio of negative to positive tests is 49:1 !!

TheDoctor

eskimohunt wrote: »

Soon, 40 percent of the adult population will be vaccinated.

Time to cancel negative NPHET meetings. They're not needed anymore.

If Philip Nolan wants to continue making slides for the next 6-months, he can publish them online somewhere.

Government needs to take back control and steer the agenda - starting by opening up to a faster degree!

They've been scaled back to 1 meeting a week now every Friday.

At the current point that seems sufficient.

Ficheall

TheDoctor wrote: »

At the current point that seems sufficient.

I don't think anything will be sufficient for eskimo until NPHET are ground up into salt for vinegary shoulderchips.

Ficheall

Ficheall wrote: »

I don't think anything will be sufficient for eskimo until NPHET are ground up into salt for vinegary shoulderchips.

I have nothing against NPHET.

I just don't think they're needed anymore, at least in any public capacity.

Ficheall

eskimohunt wrote: »

I have nothing against NPHET.

That is pure gold :pac:


Quoted for ease of reference.

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

And statistically about 25-33% will be Asymptomatic

Amazing numbers

I firmly believe that if we tested 50,000 tomorrow it would yield about a 1.5 % positivity rate

The UAE today:

• 177,688 tests
• 1614
• 0.91%

Mass testing roots out Asymptomatic cases and says "Aha! Nice try fcuker"

Why do we have UAE on our MHQ list?