Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018215#Comment_118018215

If you're old you're far more likely to be in ICU either even if vaccinated, than an unvaccinated 20-30 year old. So do we restrict people based on absolute risk or is it just whatever Micky 32 is afraid of?

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018123#Comment_118018123

Please stop misrepresenting what I'm saying. It's strange that you're calling 'relative risk reduction' an antivax buzzword. ARR is not used for interventions such as vaccination but perhaps it should be. If it were, it'd show how much of a non-issue COVID-19 for most demographics (i.e. you would instead be saying that vaccination offers ~0.5% protection for some cohorts, using ARR)

We are opening up based on the capacity of the healthcare system, as our hospital and ICU numbers have been remaining relatively static, this allows more and more to open up, if the numbers in hospital goes up, then restrictions remain in place until that wave of infections passes then we continue opening again.

Everybody understands this

You are using that number as a sign that vaccines aren't working

The numbers are showing that vaccination as the main preventative measure is not working, not me.

Wolf359f

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017985#Comment_118017985

It's all down to the wording.

The figures from the hpsc are total, so absolutely no way of know the breakdown per day or currently.

You may have someone from the HSE state that 70% of cases that required ICU have been unvaccinated. The media reports that currently 70% in ICU are unvaccinated. Both are not the same.

Potentially if it's a 50/50 split per week, there could be a higher number currently in ICU unvaccinated if they require longer to be treated. I assume fully vaccinated would have a shorter ICU stay.

celt262

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018187#Comment_118018187

I have my doubts about that i had a pleasure of been in a maternity hospital recently and they seemed to have rooms dedicated to Covid Cases. I didn't ask any questions but these rooms were labelled as Red Zones and the nurses were gowning up fully going into them

Micky 32

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018229#Comment_118018229

Afraid of what exactly? I’m living my life without fear thanks to vaccination . Yes the older you are the more likely you’ll be in ICU but if you’re vaccinated you’re significantly less likely to be. It’s not rocket science.

Now that NPHET can no longer blame alcohol they have switched their attention to the un-vaccinated.

And once again, the Irish people will vilify these people instead of asking ourselves why in a country of 5M people we barely have capacity to have 100 in ICU with Covid. Looks like the lads on the 6 figure salaries have failed to achieve anything with the millions and millions we throw at the HSE every year.

I imagine that even with 100% vaccinated, we'd be still be finding excuses for overwhelmed hospitals.

giveitholly

How can Philip Nolan be taken seriously anymore,it was only a week ago he said we had the virus as good as suppressed in this country

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018356#Comment_118018356

He tends to comment on current trends and back then it looked like that. He also said they'll have more data by Monday.

lee_baby_simms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018328#Comment_118018328

Yeah fair enough, I’m happy to be proven wrong.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018330#Comment_118018330

Old and vaccinated are still higher risk than young and unvaccinated

Micky 32

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018379#Comment_118018379

Yes but without the vaccine the risks would be far higher. The vaccines de claw the virus.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018291#Comment_118018291

Yes I agree, however seeing as their stats span from April right up to present (when majority of population were unvaccinated) its sure to skew the figures one way, toward more unvaccinated being in ICU, because most people werent vaccinated earlier in the year.

We need short term stats to figure out what the admission rates are now, but we arent getting any (other than your comparison between 1st and latest HPSC report)

“We could do more” according to Prof Philip Nolan a member of NPHET on Claire Byrne on RTE Radio One an hour ago.

For me that above comment is insulting. I have sacrificed birthday parties of my sisters, nephews and nieces, confirmation celebration of my nephew and other festivities since the start of the pandemic. I have even cancelled some doctor appointments aswell.

Yes I have an underlying health condition and yes I have let my guard down at times but I haven’t been a close contact and not been told to self-isolate, I haven’t been told to get a covid test. If anything I am taking a even more cautious approach to going out and about, I have started to wear my face masks more frequently outdoors.

Just thought the tone of Prof. Nolan I felt was a bit teacher-masterly this morning. What are the thoughts of other posters on his performance on Claire Byrne this morning?

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018419#Comment_118018419

18 months in, some of the longest lockdowns and most restrictions on the planet, one of the highest vaccinations rates on the planet...

"We could do more"

The gaslighting people have normalised in this pisshole is unreal.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018392#Comment_118018392

But if you think unvaccinated people are taking up all the ICU beds, you have to acknowledge that the old and vaccinated are more likely to take a bed than the young and unvaccinated.

So if you want to restrict people in society, you should be restricting based on other risk factors aswell - otherwise its clear you just have an axe to grind with "anti-vaxxers" and have no real logical standing for your views

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018419#Comment_118018419

The ability of NPHET and this government to communicate effectively during this has been terribly substandard at times. NPHET you can understand to a certain extent, as it is not necessarily their area of expertise but government ministers and departments really have no excuse with the number of advisors they have to hand.

What Nolan is attempting to do is to persuade more of the unvaccinated to sign up, but they cannot get past messaging that tends to be aimed at the whole population. 

We are probably also at the point where we do need better explanations and data about what's going on in terms of cases. It can no longer be down to people being “complacent” or needing to do more.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018259#Comment_118018259

Sorry, you're completely correct, RRR is the correct value to use (e.g. 0.6 vs. 0.2 = 0.4 ARR, but RRR of 66% over the timeline in play).

Vaccines are reducing transmission and infections across the board allowing us to have a much less restricted society than we did this time last year (with a more transmissible variant than last year as well).

Micky 32

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018455#Comment_118018455

Yes i do have an axe to grind with the so called antivaxxers. My tolerance for them is on thin ice. They are complete morons. Unless you have a genuine reason that you can’t take the vaccine there’s no excuse.

i already know someone who died because they refused to take it.

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017938#Comment_118017938

These numbers are a bit mmmh though

Colm Henry said that there is 40 or 50,000 adults over 40 not vaccinated here.

These are the ones that would be in ICU not the healthy under 40s who aren't vaccinated, which is where the 370,000 thousand unvaccinated figure comes from I assume

So 2/3 rds of our ICU number is coming from about 50,000 unvaccinated vulnerable, and the other 15 or so in ICU from a population of millions vaccinated.

There must be an enormous hospitalisation and ICU admission rate among positive cases in the 50,000 unvaccinated over 40s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018447#Comment_118018447

He really should have said "WE can do more". As in himself and NPHET.

Maybe they could provide more accurate models instead of the laughable nonsense that he served up.

Given the green light to Antigen testing?

Used the vaccines instead of spending months deciding whether an extremely rare blood clot was worse than vaccinating people.

Did something to ensure we'd have more hospital capacity almost 2 years later?

Nah, the plebs could do more while I get paid an insane amount to play with my models.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017702#Comment_118017702

Again, completely missing the point. Reduction in hospitalisations and ICU admissions includes those who have not caught the virus who otherwise would have. It is the only thing that can explain the difference in relative rates of hospitalisations and ICU admissions .The only thing.

How else can 8% of the population contribute 50% of hospitalisations and 92% contribute the other 50%? The only way is the the 92% have a massively reduced infection rate, topped with a reduced severity.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017717#Comment_118017717

It bares repeating yet again:

400 in hospital. 8% = 200, 92% =200. If the 92% had the same rate of hospitalisation as the 8% there would be 2,500 in hospital.

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018511#Comment_118018511

gain, completely missing the point. Reduction in hospitalisations and ICU admissions includes those who have not caught the virus who otherwise would have. It is the only thing that can explain the difference in relative rates of hospitalisations and ICU admissions

Of course. This is completely obvious. But you're talking about a reality that does not exist. The hypothetical overcrowding of ICU is irrelevant, it is not happening, and we can not hypothesize about what would have happened.

We are talking here about rates of infection, hospitalisation and death, that are now higher than this point last year.

In fact, there are more cases amongst vaccinated people now, than amongst unvaccinated people at this time last year.

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018505#Comment_118018505

His models.

Somebody mentioned that NPHET need to meet next week to look at the data.

Is it not ridiculous that for a reopening date announced over 2 months ago, that they can only meet a few days before it to confirm and only have data a few days before it?

How utterly **** useless a group is that? How useless are their models that they cannot give more certainty than that? How useless their trend modelling and predictions that they still can't say for certain one way or another?

irishguy1983

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018369#Comment_118018369

Fair enough as it is fluid situation....Maybe just don’t say anything....Don’t think all these politicians/NPHET making statements to the media help at the moment....Same pattern as before in terms of comms.....I think it is appalling again the way this is being handled from comms perspective....

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018481#Comment_118018481

To my recollection we had level 1/2 restrictions at this point last year (bearing in mind no Covid pass needed for hospitality), changing to level 5 at end of Oct. I feel like we're at the exact same juncture now, re: decisions for further restriction. As much as I don't want further restriction, I think we've left it too late to open up fully.

funnydoggy

Fúck this shít!!

Micky 32

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018527#Comment_118018527

Yes there are. That is what you expect to see because most of the population are vaccinated and vaccines aren’t 100% effective . However it’s the ratio of vaccinated vs unvaccinated that matters here.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018527#Comment_118018527

Its like as if you choose to completely ignore the fact the a less transmissible variant and a knockdown significantly tougher than anything we had this year had us almost down to single digit cases. And even so, the growth rate from July to October last year was 1.3 and now its 1.1, with lower restrictions and a 3x more transmissible variant

celt262

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118018580#Comment_118018580

Do you not want a meaningful Christmas?