Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

iguana

Deleted User wrote: »

If this were to translate into a surge of admissions in UHL, fair enough. Reality is it won't register a blip.

It has caused an increase in hospital admissions. It's not huge at this point but includes people in their 30s, 40s and 50s which is somewhat worrying. It's being claimed that some have no underlying condition but we also know that one of the biggest risk factors for Covid (obesity) is often ignored by the media when they say a person has no underlying condition. So it could be the case that formerly very healthy people are now very sick with Covid or it could be the case that they actually were high risk.

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

You may not be happy with the rate of progress but something is happening. Hotels, next week, outdoor dining the week after plus leisure centres and gyms. Plan for the rest of summer is imminent.

celt262

Deleted User wrote: »

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

Where have you been?

Jim_Hodge

Deleted User wrote: »

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

Then you think wrong. You haven't your finger in the pulse there.

bucketybuck

Deleted User wrote: »

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

If the virus magically disappeared overnight, transforming into a harmless gas like the Andromeda strain, you would see the UK or the US immediately announcing that they were reopening everything and getting back to normality ASAP. You can see it in all their government releases and media narrative, they are pumping to get back open.

In that same scenario I have no doubt Ireland would say that they are going to wait and see for a few weeks.

bucketybuck

bucketybuck wrote: »

If the virus magically disappeared overnight, transforming into a harmless gas like the Andromeda strain, you would see the UK or the US immediately announcing that they were reopening everything and getting back to normality ASAP. You can see it in all their government releases and media narrative, they are pumping to get back open.

In that same scenario I have no doubt Ireland would say that they are going to wait and see for a few weeks.

And that’s exactly my point.

We’re very slowly reopening, but there is a reluctance about it.

There is no positivity or excitement.
If there wasn’t public uproar, I genuinely think we’d still have travel restrictions in place.

podgeandrodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

................
Oh and nearly every bar I've seen advertising their opening is using time limits and bookings to make sure they've a steady turn over of trade, so they're doing it anyway before any guidelines come out

I was surprised you mentioned bars yesterday, time limits annoyed them last year, so why would they feel different this year?

Indo reporting on it today:

"Publicans set to oppose time limits for bars and restaurants after reopening"

Professor Moriarty

is_that_so wrote: »

You may not be happy with the rate of progress but something is happening. Hotels, next week, outdoor dining the week after plus leisure centres and gyms. Plan for the rest of summer is imminent.

Having dipped in and out of this thread, I am struck by the level of permanent outrage. No matter what the government, HSE and NPHET have done, it prompts predictable rants about 'useless' government, HSE 'incompetence' and NPHET 'selfishness'. Never ever is there any balance.

I get that some posters very obviously have political agendas but it makes meaningful engagement pointless. I just think to myself that the froth would be flowing freely from their mouths if they were living in one of our neighbouring countries such as the UK, Portugal, Spain, France, Holland and Belgium given the much higher mortality rates.

silverharp

Im guessing 4th July in the US will get branded as indepence day from the virus , it will be a good line in the sand

bucketybuck

Deleted User wrote: »

And that’s exactly my point.

We’re very slowly reopening, but there is a reluctance about it.

There is no positivity or excitement.
If there wasn’t public uproar, I genuinely think we’d still have travel restrictions in place.

What public uproar?

There is no public uproar, the Irish people have fully rolled over and accepted the incompetence that they have been served up for the past 15 months.

I look at the UK media and it is a constant stream of hard questions and demands of their government, over here we sit quietly and clap when we are told to.

"The fighting Irish", don't make me laugh.

stephenjmcd

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I was surprised you mentioned bars yesterday, time limits annoyed them last year, so why would they feel different this year?

Indo reporting on it today:

"Publicans set to oppose time limits for bars and restaurants after reopening"

Yes they don't want to be told what the limit is, if pubs or restaurants decide on a time limit they want to set it themselves, the same as they can do with outdoor. VFI & LVA have been told the 105 mins will be temporary. As I posted yesterday, I suspect it'll be gone by end of July personally.

However a quick search around my area & all that are opening have time limits on bookings, they didn't wait for any guidelines, they've decided themselves. My own favorite local is going with booking slots of 2hrs 30 mins for outdoor, most seem to be going with 2hrs.

Going further afield into Dublin suburbs and I'm seeing times on bookings there too. It's common & I don't blame them, you know you'll get the custom and makes sense from a business point of view to have tables turning over while you've limited capacity.

Some will put their own time limits on & some won't, but from what I can see the majority are and have been well before any draft guidelines came

Klonker

iguana wrote: »

It has caused an increase in hospital admissions. It's not huge at this point but includes people in their 30s, 40s and 50s which is somewhat worrying. It's being claimed that some have no underlying condition but we also know that one of the biggest risk factors for Covid (obesity) is often ignored by the media when they say a person has no underlying condition. So it could be the case that formerly very healthy people are now very sick with Covid or it could be the case that they actually were high risk.

We heard the same 'claims' back in January and February this year that younger people with no underlying conditions were filling up the hospitals and it turned out to be false and I've no doubt its the same again. Even though the Taoiseach told us the Kent variant was 'deadlier' many times, Cillian De Gascun later said that they seen no noticeable difference in death, ICU and hospitalisation rates between that variant and previous ones.

whisky_galore

bucketybuck wrote: »

What public uproar?

There is no public uproar, the Irish people have fully rolled over and accepted the incompetence that they have been served up for the past 15 months.

I look at the UK media and it is a constant stream of hard questions and demands of their government, over here we sit quietly and clap when we are told to.

"The fighting Irish", don't make me laugh.

What do you suggest we do?

Burn some cars?

iamwhoiam

I would be interested to know about hospital admissions now . Are they vaccinated or not , are they young unvaccinated people , are they vulnerable Group 7 who are not yet vaccinated ?
It would be interesting to know who is getting sick and why

podgeandrodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes they don't want to be told what the limit is, if pubs or restaurants decide on a time limit they want to set it themselves, the same as they can do with outdoor. VFI & LVA have been told the 105 mins will be temporary. As I posted yesterday, I suspect it'll be gone by end of July personally.

However a quick search around my area & all that are opening have time limits on bookings, they didn't wait for any guidelines, they've decided themselves. My own favorite local is going with booking slots of 2hrs 30 mins for outdoor, most seem to be going with 2hrs.

Going further afield into Dublin suburbs and I'm seeing times on bookings there too. It's common & I don't blame them, you know you'll get the custom and makes sense from a business point of view to have tables turning over while you've limited capacity.

Some will put their own time limits on & some won't, but from what I can see the majority are and have been well before any draft guidelines came

I guess we will have to disagree on the views of pubs, people involved that I know are dead against them, don't want to annoy regulars etc. Tables turninv over might piss off good customers!

ednwireland

Deleted User wrote: »

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

dont worry there will be a new scariant along soon (bit like flu variants every year)

stephenjmcd

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I guess we will have to disagree on the views of pubs, people involved that I know are dead against them, don't want to annoy regulars etc. Tables turninv over might piss off good customers!

Not sure what there is to disagree on, most pubs were already going ahead and setting their own time limits before any draft guidance was issued this week. Take a look yourself if your trying to book somewhere. As I've mentioned a quick search online for pubs in the Dublin area and my own area, vast majority have the booking system in place with time slots. Nobody likes them but with limited capacity they're there.

We all know regulars aren't going to be asked to leave, they weren't last year, they won't be this year.

A point will come as I've said, probably late July, whereby the guidance on 105 indoors will go and much like outdoors from June 7th, it'll be up to each pub if they want a limit and how long.

OwenM

Deleted User wrote: »

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

I've been saying this about NPHET for months, it's called asymmetrical risk. There is no downside for NPHET if they keep restrictions in place and they have everything to loose by lifting them.

podgeandrodge

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not sure what there is to disagree on, most pubs were already going ahead and setting their own time limits before any draft guidance was issued this week. Take a look yourself if your trying to book somewhere. As I've mentioned a quick search online for pubs in the Dublin area and my own area, vast majority have the booking system in place with time slots. Nobody likes them but with limited capacity they're there.

We all know regulars aren't going to be asked to leave, they weren't last year, they won't be this year.

A point will come as I've said, probably late July, whereby the guidance on 105 indoors will go and much like outdoors from June 7th, it'll be up to each pub if they want a limit and how long.

Actually, I haven't seen any pubs doing slots yet for drinking only indoors. It's a good bit away yet I suppose.

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

I've been saying this about NPHET for months, it's called asymmetrical risk. There is no downside for NPHET if they keep restrictions in place and they have everything to loose by lifting them.

Yep.
Sure most of the country will be vaccinated before we even allow indoor dining with time limits.

So it’s difficult to see us allowing clubs, gigs and events etc for much much longer.

I imagine there’ll be a spell were Irish people will be forced to head north for those things.

kleiner feigling

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I was surprised you mentioned bars yesterday, time limits annoyed them last year, so why would they feel different this year?

Indo reporting on it today:

"Publicans set to oppose time limits for bars and restaurants after reopening"

Can anyone explain why this specific time limit is better or worse than no limit or a longer limit?
It seems so arbitrary, so why even impose it.
I'm sure businesses are as exhausted by the arbitrary, non-scientific rules as I am. Just have to laugh about some of them at this stage or I'd go mad.

I really wish more emphasis was put on ventilation which makes a demonstrable and positive difference. smh...

FishOnABike

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At the rate we’re going in Ireland, I think we’ll eventually have nearly everyone vaccinated and still have restrictions.

It just seems like there is no real appetite to reopen other than public pressure.

I think if government/NPHET could get away with it, we’d shut down until 2022.

We're at roughly 50% of the population having received a first dose of a vaccine. It's reckoned we need between 70% and 80% fully vaccinated for herd immunity. We're vaccinating up to 300,000 people per week so we are getting there. Things are opening up in response to reduced infection, hospitalisation and ICU numbers and increasing levels of vaccination.

Recent outbreaks due to social events show it is still too early for a free for all but as the risk reduces, restrictions can be reduced proportionately.

seamus

FishOnABike wrote: »

We're at roughly 50% of the population having received a first dose of a vaccine. It's reckoned we need between 70% and 80% fully vaccinated for herd immunity. We're vaccinating up to 300,000 people per week so we are getting there. Things are opening up in response to reduced infection, hospitalisation and ICU numbers and increasing levels of vaccination.

Recent outbreaks due to social events show it is still too early for a free for all but as the risk reduces, restrictions can be reduced proportionately.

And this is the nub of the issue. The fact that some other countries are apparently opening up faster is mostly irrelevant.

Herd immunity requires a certain amount of the population to be fully vaccinated. Covid is still statistically a serious illness for adults; several times more likely to result in serious injury or fatality than the 'flu.

And the fun thing about herd immunity is that it requires the entire population to be covered in order to defend against outbreaks. So if we have ourselves 70% covered, but only 10% of people in Donegal are vaccinated, then we will continue to see outbreaks in Donegal. If only 20% of under-30s are vaccinated and we reopen nightclubs, then we will see large outbreaks among the under-30 groups.

And so on. We need full vaccination in 70%+ of every age group 18+ for outbreaks to be contained.

This is why letting rip and opening up everything with gusto once the vulnerable are done, is not an appropriate response. People will die. Young people. And while it's a relatively small risk for younger people compared to older people, it's a relatively large risk compared to all of the other things which might kill a young person this year.

This is why opening up with restrictions is OK, but opening without requires caution.

kleiner feigling

FishOnABike wrote: »

We're at roughly 50% of the population having received a first dose of a vaccine. It's reckoned we need between 70% and 80% fully vaccinated for herd immunity. We're vaccinating up to 300,000 people per week so we are getting there.

Would it not be more like 35%?
2011 CSO has 65.6% of population under 44 y/o (i.e. the group that haven't been offered a jab yet).
I know you can give or take a bit with the actual figures in 2021, but 50% seems off proportionally.

kleiner feigling

Important to remember also that vaccinated can, and do, still spread the virus.
The beauty of the vaccine is the reduction in severity of disease.

Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%
Pushing to vaccinate that group is largely a waste of time and money, as the vaccine will still circulate regardless.

The at risk groups will be protected by their own vaccines rather than other people's.

Under 19s make up ~8% of population.
I can't see many parents from chats with colleagues/friends who'd be willing to vaccinate their kids who are not at risk until the trials are complete, which is another year or 2 away.

HPSC report: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/weeklyreportoncovid-19deathsreportedinireland/COVID-19_Weekly_Death_Report_Website_v1.1.pdf

Census 2011: https://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011profile2/Profile_2_Tables_and_Appendices.pdf

Lumen

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%

You need to be clear about what that death rate means. It means in the general population, and depends entirely on what the rate of infection is.

It absolutely DOES NOT mean "if you get infected you have a 0.00104% chance of dying."

Therefore it does not support your later point...

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Pushing to vaccinate that group is largely a waste of time and money, as the vaccine will still circulate regardless.

I don't know the risks of hospitalisation and death by age for confirmed cases or infected people. I've tried to find out, and failed.

To evaluate the "let it rip" proposition, you need to start with some assumption about how many people in a given age group (excluding the vaccinated high and very high people) will get infected or become a confirmed case (don't know, maybe 70%?), and then apply the hospitalisation and death probabilities to those.

Off you go.

seamus

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Would it not be more like 35%?
2011 CSO has 65.6% of population under 44 y/o (i.e. the group that haven't been offered a jab yet).
I know you can give or take a bit with the actual figures in 2021, but 50% seems off proportionally.

The 15% difference would be made up of frontline workers and others who were vaccinated before the age-based cohorts kicked off.

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Based on the 2011 CSO data, and the 11th May HPSC report...
the under 35s are about 42% of the population, but death rate in that group is ~0.00104%

The under-35s are a large group. Lumping them all together under a single statistic doesn't make sense.

If you look at the HSPC link you've posted, you can see that someone in the 25-34 age group is nearly five times more likely to die of Covid than someone under 25.

So if we open up wide without this group done, we could realistically end up with a few hundred thousand new infections again in a matter of weeks. Which, statistically would lead to about 50 deaths of people under 35. That's if we take those HSPC figures and add a few assumptions.

But it would have a knock-on effect of exposing those who are higher risk and/or the vaccine didn't work; which could be hundreds of deaths.

Herd immunity requires the entire population to covered, not just those at risk. Without herd immunity, those who can't get the vaccine or for whom it's not effective, are always exposed.

Lumen

Also

kleiner feigling wrote: »

I can't see many parents from chats with colleagues/friends who'd be willing to vaccinate their kids who are not at risk until the trials are complete, which is another year or 2 away.

Do you mean that

(a) you don't know anyone who will be willing to enroll their child in a clinical trial or
(b) you don't know anyone who will consent to have their child vaccinated with a vaccine which has been approved for general use, i.e. outside clinical trials?

The clinical trials will not take a year or two. The FDA has already authorized Pfizer-BioNTech for use in adolescents, and I doubt the EMA will be far behind.

Smells a bit like "experimental vaccine!!!!" hysteria.

We opened indoor dining last year on June 29th with nobody vaccinated and everything was grand.

It’s bizarre that we won’t do the same this year when we have half the population vaccinated

We’re haemorrhaging billions, no hurry like…