Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

drkpower

marno21 wrote: »

By the time indoor dining reopens, we'll be at vaccination levels that there's a good chance 2 of 3 tables in a row in a pub will be fully vaccinated, and there will be no risk of transmission anyway.

It's absolute nonsense of the highest order.

+1; and those perhaps not vaccinated by then (ie, in their 20s) are the ones who will just go on a pub crawl spreading it wider.

Genius.

timmyntc

JDD wrote: »

People forget that lockdowns, and restrictions in general, were not put in place in order to avoid every hospitalisation and every death from covid.

They were put in place in order to prevent hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

If we fully open before the under 35 cohort is vaccinated then yes, we risk infections in that category rising steeply, for a period of time until the critical mass of that age group is vaccinated. So, say we fully opened tomorrow and most of that category is vaccinated by end July, that is a window of two months.

I think it's very unlikely, even in a fully open scenario, that we will have a number infected over 10 weeks that is over the total number of infections in the state for 14 months.

But say we have the same steep rise we had at Christmas/New Years - but in a cohort that is 15% of the overall population. You might see 70-100k infections, at the very high end, over that eight week window. And remember, not everyone will be infected at the same time, so hospitalisations will only be at the highest at the end of that window.

There will of course be people hospitalised. But no where near the numbers in January/February simply because under-35s don't tend to suffer badly enough to be hospitalised. There may again be a handful of deaths.

As awful as this is, if we cast our minds back to March last year there is absolutely NO WAY the country would have shut down if we were going to have a few hundred hospitalisations and a handful of deaths over an eight week window. Advocating for extending restrictions simply because we are now used to them, in circumstances where our hospitals are not going to become overwhelmed, is simply not a decision a government who has the best interests of the whole population at heart.

People also forget that 93%+* of all deaths from covid were from people with an underlying condition.
People with those underlying conditions were in the priority vaccination cohorts, and at this stage should all be fully vaxxed.

The risk to the general public now is miniscule.


*93%+ comes from HPSC report on underlying conditions, data up to end of last year. https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf

is_that_so

timmyntc wrote: »

People also forget that 93%+* of all deaths from covid were from people with an underlying condition.
People with those underlying conditions were in the priority vaccination cohorts, and at this stage should all be fully vaxxed.

The risk to the general public now is miniscule.


*93%+ comes from HPSC report on underlying conditions, data up to end of last year. https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf

Deaths have always been the red herring in this. Sure it is a sobering and sad headline but it's always been about the potential of clogged hospitals with the 16-20% who could end up there, never mind the massive knock on to normal services. As for the rest of us based on the vaccination groups there could be up to 1m with some of those underlying conditions in some form.

timmyntc

is_that_so wrote: »

Deaths have always been the red herring in this. Sure it is a sobering and sad headline but it's always been about the potential of clogged hospitals with the 16-20% who could end up there, never mind the massive knock on to normal services. As for the rest of us based on the vaccination groups there could be up to 1m with some of those underlying conditions in some form.

The underlying conditions mentioned are an explicit set - and its those conditions that were part of the priority cohorts for vaccinations. The conditions that 93% of people who died had, almost everyone who has those should now be vaccinated.

Unless you have chronic heart disease or a chronic respiratory problem and dont know about it - I'd say people in that category are in the 100s if not below. Not a significant amount, and also more likely to be vaccinated due to age anyways.

60% of those admitted to hospital, and 88% of ICU admissions were also a subset of those underlying conditions. The risk is miniscule now, it really is.

podgeandrodge

Deleted User wrote: »

I cant believe this trope is still being pushed.

The decision was only premises serving food could open. €9 was an arbitrary figure selected to stop people pulling the piss by selling peanuts with every pint

It was bollox and just annoyed people, and sent plenty into houses to continue mixing in a more dangerous situation.

But now, with a significant amount of vulnerable people vaccinated to a degree e.g. older people, it makes even less sense.

corkie

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1397589213474926593

As of midnight, Tuesday 25 May, we are reporting
448* confirmed cases of #COVID19.

41 in ICU. 99 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.



Updated COVID-19 case numbers for 15-26 May 2021
^^^ Cases where under reported in most days.

Wolf359f

timmyntc wrote: »

The underlying conditions mentioned are an explicit set - and its those conditions that were part of the priority cohorts for vaccinations. The conditions that 93% of people who died had, almost everyone who has those should now be vaccinated.

Unless you have chronic heart disease or a chronic respiratory problem and dont know about it - I'd say people in that category are in the 100s if not below. Not a significant amount, and also more likely to be vaccinated due to age anyways.

60% of those admitted to hospital, and 88% of ICU admissions were also a subset of those underlying conditions. The risk is miniscule now, it really is.

Worth noting, 35% of those hospitalised in that report had no underlying conditions. Before the hack, we were still seeing roughly 10-15 admissions per day. We've no way to know if they have underlying conditions, just testing positive with no symptoms on admission etc...
Likewise we don't know their ages etc...
You can't assume everyone at risk is fully protected yet.

Wolf359f

corkie wrote: »

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1397589213474926593

As of midnight, Tuesday 25 May, we are reporting
448* confirmed cases of #COVID19.

41 in ICU. 99 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.

Nice to see it back under 100!

As the daily cases are just swabs (due to the hack), has anyone compared swab count week to week to see the trend?
I think alot of people have really taken less interest now with daily figures (apart from ICU and hospital) and everyone is missing the daily vaccination figures. A much better place to be in mentally!

corkie

@Wolf359f

I updated my post with

Updated COVID-19 case numbers for 15-26 May 2021
^^^ Cases where under reported in most days.

stephenjmcd

To note updated case numbers are now available following further validation

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1397593961246732294?s=19

bodhrandude

corkie wrote: »

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1397589213474926593

As of midnight, Tuesday 25 May, we are reporting
448* confirmed cases of #COVID19.

41 in ICU. 99 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.



Updated COVID-19 case numbers for 15-26 May 2021
^^^ Cases where under reported in most days.

Why are the cases not under 200 by this stage, why are we still over 400 cases?

Cork2021

bodhrandude wrote: »

Why are the cases not under 200 by this stage, why are we still over 400 cases?

Because we’ve all been licking the faces off each other haha,
Majority of cases are in people under 45. It’s the younger generation going back out and socialising and FairPlay to them!

Cork2021

Just on about licking faces there,
The amount of riding that’s going to go on once this over is over durex will have rubber shortages!

iamwhoiam

Hospital cases under 100 , great news !

Lumen

I have an idea.

Weekly poll on lockdown, open to the unvaccinated. They're the stakeholders here, right? The ones we're protecting?

Register through the vaccine portal. Vote online or by SMS.

Voting options:
1. I grant my vote to Tony to use as he sees fit.
2. Keep the status quo
3. Open a bit faster please.
4. Open everything, all health measures advisory.

Amirani

bodhrandude wrote: »

Why are the cases not under 200 by this stage, why are we still over 400 cases?

We've opened up loads of things and people have started interacting much more.

KrustyUCC

Think that's the most positive George Lee has been on the news in ages

I'm getting worried about him lol

kleiner feigling

bodhrandude wrote: »

Why are the cases not under 200 by this stage, why are we still over 400 cases?

Because asymptomatic people keep getting tested. Doesn't mean there are 400 additional sick people every day.

castletownman

Amirani wrote: »

We've opened up loads of things and people have started interacting much more.

Indeed.

Some elderly lady came up to me on the way back to my car to have a look at my dog after our walk on the beach. Had a nice little chat about how she loves dogs.

Was definitely a noticeable increase in elderly people out and about too, which is fantastic to see.

Lumen

kleiner feigling wrote: »

Because asymptomatic people keep getting tested. Doesn't mean there are 400 additional sick people every day.

The hospital admissions stats are fairly static and have been for some time, so I think you need to provide evidence that people aren't getting sick as it's not the most plausible explanation.

Cork2021

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Think that's the most positive George Lee has been on the news in ages

I'm getting worried about him lol

He smiled and kept smiling, no bad news at all. His been to the doctor

drkpower

bodhrandude wrote: »

Why are the cases not under 200 by this stage, why are we still over 400 cases?

Because PCR @ 45 cycles picks up such minute amounts of virus, including from people long recovered. The hospital admissions is the only data worth looking at.

PmMeUrDogs

bodhrandude wrote: »

Why are the cases not under 200 by this stage, why are we still over 400 cases?

Kent variant is more infectious and is our dominant strain I believe.

More young people out socializing.

More things open.

We're allowed meet outdoors. Vaccinated can meet one unvaccinated indoors.

Most age cohorts don't care anymore because either they're vaccinated or at little risk.

Walk in testing is finding asymptomatic cases - which is GOOD because then they're not spreading it.

Schools and creches obviously have some spread among children.

Timmy O Toole

Says it as it is. Unelected NEPHET calling the shots and refuse to answer any questions. A great man is Michael

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1397615099154685955?s=19

Wolf359f

drkpower wrote: »

Because PCR @ 45 cycles picks up such minute amounts of virus, including from people long recovered. The hospital admissions is the only data worth looking at.

Most, if not all results from a high CT count will not make a case number. They get retested again and there are guidelines there to prevent occurrences you mentioned.
The high CT spiel has been repeated on here ad nauseum and disproven time and again.
Even just quoting the CT as 45 means jack**** as every lab/machine/assays will vary.

PTH2009

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Says it as it is. Unelected NEPHET calling the shots and refuse to answer any questions. A great man is Michael

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1397615099154685955?s=19

Very true

Eod100

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1397620334061395972?s=19

Eod100

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Says it as it is. Unelected NEPHET calling the shots and refuse to answer any questions. A great man is Michael

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1397615099154685955?s=19

Not sure significance of unelected here. Should only elected politicians be in charge of response to a global pandemic? Or should NPHET members be elected? Always hear the mantra that NPHET advise and government decide anyway so not sure also

Timmy O Toole

This is why we are so slow to open international travel, even to vaccinated people. Nothing to do with science.

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1397311981158379521?s=19

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1397311981158379521?s=19

https://twitter.com/TonightVMTV/status/1397311981158379521?s=09

Wolf359f

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1397620334061395972?s=19

Interesting that J&J got in touch with the scientists for more information on how to tweak their vaccine. AZ/Oxford haven't been in touch yet.