Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Dank Janniels

What's that McNamara fella's plan for the virus? How is he helping his constituents? Hes all the time ranting and giving out about lockdown but what exactly would he do if he was in charge.
Most of them rural Independents are the same, all outraged at NEPHET and the Government but no viable alternative on how to deal with it. Mattie McGrath comparing lockdown to Nazi Germany. Michael Fitzmaurice fighting for rural Ireland day and night and has played no role in the relief effort since the 1st outbreak.

I'd say the next crisis that comes our way we should let them be in charge and see how they fare out!

Timmy O Toole

Dank Janniels wrote: »

What's that McNamara fella's plan for the virus? How is he helping his constituents? Hes all the time ranting and giving out about lockdown but what exactly would he do if he was in charge.
Most of them rural Independents are the same, all outraged at NEPHET and the Government but no viable alternative on how to deal with it. Mattie McGrath comparing lockdown to Nazi Germany. Michael Fitzmaurice fighting for rural Ireland day and night and has played no role in the relief effort since the 1st outbreak.

I'd say the next crisis that comes our way we should let them be in charge and see how they fare out!

The next crisis is how to pay back the billions upon billions we've borrowed to lockdown. We are in for decades of misery

Eod100

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

The next crisis is how to pay back the billions upon billions we've borrowed to lockdown. We are in for decades of misery

What was the alternative? Sweden's economy didn't fare much better.

Timmy O Toole

Eod100 wrote: »

What was the alternative? Sweden's economy didn't fare much better.

Ireland has borrowed more per capita than any other country in the world, never mind Sweden

We have the youngest population in Europe, yet the longest and harshest lockdown in Europe.

speckle

Just thinking lateraly here..maybe we should have a lock in pub wise...you choose your pub for the night...be there by 8pm and you get to stay til closing...you can leave earlier even after 15 minutes if you choose...would probably work better down the country though...the city pubs could keep there bord failte...land of the many welcomes rules...potentially limits potential number of contacts and it is kind of an Irish like solution

Wolf359f

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Ireland has borrowed more per capita than any other country in the world, never mind Sweden

We have the youngest population in Europe, yet the longest and harshest lockdown in Europe.

I'd be more interested in borrowing compared to GDP/GNP, not per capita. How have we faired on that for pandemic borrowing? Throw into the mix some countries GDP has dropped more than others, some have even increased during the pandemic.

Timmy O Toole

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'd be more interested in borrowing compared to GDP/GNP, not per capita. How have we faired on that for pandemic borrowing? Throw into the mix some countries GDP has dropped more than others, some have even increased during the pandemic.

Per capita is the only one relevant here. Our GDP is massively inflated by multinational tech companies using Ireland as an address. You know this though.

normanoffside

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Says it as it is. Unelected NEPHET calling the shots and refuse to answer any questions. A great man is Michael

https://twitter.com/MlMcNamaraTD/status/1397615099154685955?s=19

With several FF TDs now calling for NPHET to be disbanded, I think their time is up.

saabsaab

normanoffside wrote: »

With several FF TDs now calling for NPHET to be disbanded, I think their time is up.

Too soon.

Wolf359f

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Per capita is the only one relevant here. Our GDP is massively inflated by multinational tech companies using Ireland as an address. You know this though.

Which is why I also mentioned GNP.
So we've borrowed more during this pandemic based on capital. How far ahead are we of second place and who is in second place?

Eod100

Timmy O Toole wrote: »

Ireland has borrowed more per capita than any other country in the world, never mind Sweden

We have the youngest population in Europe, yet the longest and harshest lockdown in Europe.

Still curious to hear what could have been done differently tbh

ZX7R

saabsaab wrote: »

Too soon.

Disbanding too soon yes,
restructuring is what's required, that should have been done a long time ago.

aziz

saabsaab wrote: »

Too soon.

Too feckin late, more like

speckle

Interview on hypotheses with Nicholas Wade regarding his recent article

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVVE6MD7tRw

podgeandrodge

What's the thinking behind 11.30pm closing instead of normal closing at 12.30am - will this hour save us all from a worse fate?

Will 105 minutes limit for pubs with 1m distancing prevent any covid cases, or simply result in people moving to another pub?

Does anyone really think that 1m distance will prevent anything much more than 2m distance?

quartz1

Nphet may not be perfect but in calling for their dismissal people might reflect on how we faired last Christmas and January when the Government took the decision to open both Hospitality and Households against their adbice. It didn't go well and Government failed to govern . This period will be remembered when the timing permits a retrospective review of the period. The Taoiseach and Government no doubt are well aware of their failures and now they are very very nervous of making further mistakes. Of course the dismissal of Nphets Christmas advice was following on from Leo's dressing down to Tony Holohan last October. Public opinion took months to force the Government into Hotel Quarantine and now it may we'll be buying critical time in slowing the arrival of mutations while vaccines are rolled out.

Dank Janniels

Dank Janniels wrote: »

What's that McNamara fella's plan for the virus? How is he helping his constituents? Hes all the time ranting and giving out about lockdown but what exactly would he do if he was in charge.
Most of them rural Independents are the same, all outraged at NEPHET and the Government but no viable alternative on how to deal with it. Mattie McGrath comparing lockdown to Nazi Germany. Michael Fitzmaurice fighting for rural Ireland day and night and has played no role in the relief effort since the 1st outbreak.

I'd say the next crisis that comes our way we should let them be in charge and see how they fare out!

There was no need for severe lockdown between May 2020 and November 2020. There was also no need for severe lockdown from March 2021 onwards.

We have the most vulnerable half of the country vaccinated now… I imagine if McNamara was in charge he’d have relaxed some restrictions months ago and would open up fully now. Which is the correct thing to do.

Instead we’ll waste several more months while we wait and see.

leahyl

Staines and Mills out in force again this morning - having up to 15 people at a table in a restaurant is too risky….even though by that stage about 60% (maybe more?) of the population will have had a first dose of the vaccine. This is so depressing.

leahyl

leahyl wrote: »

Staines and Mills out in force again this morning - having up to 15 people at a table in a restaurant is too risky….even though by that stage about 60% (maybe more?) of the population will have had a first dose of the vaccine. This is so depressing.

You’d have to wonder what it will take before we can go to a gig in the 3 arena without masks or social distancing…

The whole country fully vaccinated, 0 deaths, 0 in hospital and a year to wait and see?

We’re reluctant to allow indoor dining…

gozunda

timmyntc wrote: »

People also forget that 93%+* of all deaths from covid were from people with an underlying condition.
People with those underlying conditions were in the priority vaccination cohorts, and at this stage should all be fully vaxxed.

The risk to the general public now is miniscule.

*93%+ comes from HPSC report on underlying conditions, data up to end of last year. https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf

Its not just about deaths and never has been. A proportion of those who become infected end up with a more serious form of the disease and will go on to develop complications which may require hospitalisation etc.

You say "The risk to the general public now is miniscule."

Not quite.

The report below gives the proportion of those infected who had underlying conditions

"Underlying medical conditions in individuals with confirmed COVID-19 by age group, up to midnight 12/12/2020"

Age group | % of each age group
| with an an underlying condition

0-14 | 8.7%
15-24 | 12 %
25-34 | 16.9%
35-44 | 20.8%
45-54 | 28.2%
55-64 | 36.9%
65-74 | 52.5%
75+ | 59.4%

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf

So we can see whilst older age groups have higher rates of underlying conditions- there is a spread of underlying conditions across all age groups with approx 20% of those aged 35-44 who were diagnosed with covid having underlying conditions and approx 30% of those aged 45-54 who were diagnosed with covid having underlying conditions.

You correctly say that
"People with those underlying conditions were in the priority vaccination cohorts, and at this stage should all be fully vaxxed"

However an issue with underlying conditions in the general population is that many such conditions may be unknown and / or undiagnosed. This is especially true of younger age groups imo.

For example an Irish heart health public check unit - reported that 41% of participants across a broad range of age groups were found to have high blood pressure of which they were unaware.

And we know that something like high blood pressure or hypertension is a risk factor for covid

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/high-blood-pressure.html

Dr. Bre

leahyl wrote: »

Staines and Mills out in force again this morning - having up to 15 people at a table in a restaurant is too risky….even though by that stage about 60% (maybe more?) of the population will have had a first dose of the vaccine. This is so depressing.

They haven’t gone away you know

Cork2021

Just saw this on Twitter, also why is the independent giving Anthony Staines front page coverage?? This tweet says enough about ISAG

https://twitter.com/mianoone2/status/1397677975722770437?s=21

ArthurDayne

quartz1 wrote: »

Nphet may not be perfect but in calling for their dismissal people might reflect on how we faired last Christmas and January when the Government took the decision to open both Hospitality and Households against their adbice. It didn't go well and Government failed to govern . This period will be remembered when the timing permits a retrospective review of the period. The Taoiseach and Government no doubt are well aware of their failures and now they are very very nervous of making further mistakes. Of course the dismissal of Nphets Christmas advice was following on from Leo's dressing down to Tony Holohan last October. Public opinion took months to force the Government into Hotel Quarantine and now it may we'll be buying critical time in slowing the arrival of mutations while vaccines are rolled out.

People keep saying this as if there was some other great option. Are we really suggesting that we should have stayed in full Level 5 lockdown for all this time? If not, then what?

NPHET’s remit in the context of Covid is to advise the government on how to tackle the virus — that’s it. They aren’t there to think about the economic, political or societal consequences that flow immediately or in the long term from their advice, or to formulate strategy on how that should be dealt with. They are there to say: “here is what we think is the reasonable way to tackle the virus in this current context”. And that’s fine.

Yes, NPHET advised against Christmas reopening because it would allow the virus to spread. You don’t need to be an epidemiologist to understand that this stands to reason — but the government took a decision that was always going to be the wrong decision from the perspective of stopping Covid, but it may have been the right decision in other contexts ... most particularly the context of a miserable, weary population and a chunk of the economy taking the most almighty battering in modern history. That is the government’s job, to look holistically at even the most critical issues and apply balance even where it means that your decisions directly or indirectly cause terrible things to happen — that it is the nature of leading a country. The people who make up NPHET are qualified to make calls on matters of public health, they are not necessarily experts on how to run a country, nor experience of doing so.

The most unfortunate part of the government’s rationale since then however is that they have meekly acquiesced to the “I Told You So” mantra, from which the ‘abundance of caution’ philosophy has emerged. The government has, in my view wrongly, rolled with an apparent presumption that Christmas time is a template which can be taken as typical in terms of social contact and that therefore the risk tolerance can only be as painfully tentative as it currently seems to be — even with many of the vulnerable now afforded a great deal of protection through the vaccines and the now well-embedded ‘Covid etiquette’ across society.

quartz1

quartz1 wrote: »

Nphet may not be perfect but in calling for their dismissal people might reflect on how we faired last Christmas and January when the Government took the decision to open both Hospitality and Households against their adbice. It didn't go well and Government failed to govern . This period will be remembered when the timing permits a retrospective review of the period. The Taoiseach and Government no doubt are well aware of their failures and now they are very very nervous of making further mistakes. Of course the dismissal of Nphets Christmas advice was following on from Leo's dressing down to Tony Holohan last October. Public opinion took months to force the Government into Hotel Quarantine and now it may we'll be buying critical time in slowing the arrival of mutations while vaccines are rolled out.

This palaver again about last Christmas, and of course you had to attribute blame to hospitality. What percentage of cases were directly linked to pubs? At best in the low single digits. Anyway, the overall comparison is null and void five months on. First of all we had zero vaccines last December, now we have more than two million in arms with nearly all elderly/vulnerable cohorts reached. "Buying critical time", such a risk-averse mentality speaks volumes. Why hop into the car or even get out of bed in the morning. Yes, the government are nervous nellies but their hand will finally be forced when the economic devastation hits home. Infinite borrowing has dire consequences, the taxpayer won't be grateful when hit by a punitive October budget to claw back lost billions. And the ballot box will finish off political careers, MM and company won't be let off the hook for mass job losses inflicted. We don't live in a goldfish bowl, bitter memories don't disappear overnight. It's time to get real and reopen the country proper. If one is timorous they are free to stay at home, sectors like hospitality and the airline industry deserve a fair shake after a wretched year. NPHET served their purpose, hospitalisations/ICU admissions are under control and we don't need another dollop of concern because the general public aren't going to be intimidated anymore. Life is for living, not existing. The price is too high after 15 months.

timmyntc

gozunda wrote: »

Its not just about deaths and never has been. A proportion of those who become infected end up with a more serious form of the disease and will go on to develop complications which may require hospitalisation etc.

You say "The risk to the general public now is miniscule."

Not quite.

The report below gives the proportion of those infected who had underlying conditions

"Underlying medical conditions in individuals with confirmed COVID-19 by age group, up to midnight 12/12/2020"

Age group | % of each age group
| with an an underlying condition

0-14 | 8.7%
15-24 | 12 %
25-34 | 16.9%
35-44 | 20.8%
45-54 | 28.2%
55-64 | 36.9%
65-74 | 52.5%
75+ | 59.4%

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf

So we can see whilst older age groups have higher rates of underlying conditions- there is a spread of underlying conditions across all age groups with approx 20% of those aged 35-44 who were diagnosed with covid having underlying conditions and approx 30% of those aged 45-54 who were diagnosed with covid having underlying conditions.

You correctly say that
"People with those underlying conditions were in the priority vaccination cohorts, and at this stage should all be fully vaxxed"

However an issue with underlying conditions in the general population is that many such conditions may be unknown and / or undiagnosed. This is especially true of younger age groups imo.

For example an Irish heart health public check unit - reported that 41% of participants across a broad range of age groups were found to have high blood pressure of which they were unaware.

And we know that something like high blood pressure or hypertension is a risk factor for covid

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/high-blood-pressure.html

Firstly you are making a big assumption there that most of the underlying conditions in younger people are hypertension o0r something that would be similarly undiagnosed.
From the study you linked, only 22% of people surveyed were under 45. it doesnt give a better age breakdown, however from CDC in America (which would likely have worse obesity and hypertension stats than here), we see that:
7.7% of 18-39s have high blood pressure
33% for 40-59s
63% for 60+

So again, the risk is overwhelmingly borne by the older groups - so even if they did not know about their hypertension, the age based rollout means they will be first to get vaxxed also. Right now we are vaccinating 50s? So approx 80% of all adults with hypertension are likely to have at least 1 vaccine by the time we do all 50s+ with a first dose, which is very soon.

The reality is, that you seem to want to dismiss, is that younger people are the healthiest of all age groups. Some will have conditions, some will die, but the vast vast majority are quite healthy.

For hospital admission data & the risk of being overrun see https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries30/
For every 100 confirmed cases in each age group, hospitalisation rate is:
0-24 1.3%
25-44 2.4%
45-64 5.6%
65-79 21.3%
80+ 28.6%

This doesnt account for the previously mentioned underlying conditions either, which are disproportionately more likely to be hospitalised.

So unless you think somehow covid is going to rip through the younger groups and infect more than 100k people, our hospitals will never be overrun with covid again.

Multipass

gozunda wrote: »

Its not just about deaths and never has been. A proportion of those who become infected end up with a more serious form of the disease and will go on to develop complications which may require hospitalisation etc.

You say "The risk to the general public now is miniscule."

Not quite.

The report below gives the proportion of those infected who had underlying conditions

"Underlying medical conditions in individuals with confirmed COVID-19 by age group, up to midnight 12/12/2020"

Age group | % of each age group
| with an an underlying condition

0-14 | 8.7%
15-24 | 12 %
25-34 | 16.9%
35-44 | 20.8%
45-54 | 28.2%
55-64 | 36.9%
65-74 | 52.5%
75+ | 59.4%

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/underlyingconditionsreports/Underlying%20conditions%20summary_1.0v%2014122020.pdf

So we can see whilst older age groups have higher rates of underlying conditions- there is a spread of underlying conditions across all age groups with approx 20% of those aged 35-44 who were diagnosed with covid having underlying conditions and approx 30% of those aged 45-54 who were diagnosed with covid having underlying conditions.

You correctly say that
"People with those underlying conditions were in the priority vaccination cohorts, and at this stage should all be fully vaxxed"

However an issue with underlying conditions in the general population is that many such conditions may be unknown and / or undiagnosed. This is especially true of younger age groups imo.

For example an Irish heart health public check unit - reported that 41% of participants across a broad range of age groups were found to have high blood pressure of which they were unaware.

And we know that something like high blood pressure or hypertension is a risk factor for covid

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/high-blood-pressure.html

Too bad, let people be hospitalised, same concern as any other disease now. Better to spend this money (we are still squandering in the billions) on catching up the waiting lists for conditions with far higher risk.

seamus

brick tamland wrote: »

I know what you are trying to point out, but it wouldnt be that bad, nowhere near in my opinion

AdamD wrote: »

Ireland have had 255,000 covid cases since the beginning. Its seems beyond the realms of possibility that we would have a few hundred thousand infections in a matter of weeks with 70% of adults vaccinated.

OwenM wrote: »

It's taken 14 months to record approx 255k infections so far, there is no way we could end up with " a few hundred thousand new infections again in a matter of weeks"

timmyntc wrote: »

45 deaths would probably be about 10 deaths to be honest. Possibly even lower. Unfortunately without a better breakdown of data from HPSC we can't estimate to a higher degree of accuracy

Sorry to drag the thread back a bit, I just wanted to point something out.

I'm not going to disagree with any of these posts, they could all be correct. But there's a common thread here - it's all opinion. It what we think "may" happen. And that is as true for my post as it is for anyone else's.

But what's the correct thing to do here? To look at the possible worst-case scenarios (guided by some rational numbers, not ISAG hysteria) and be guided by them, or to say, "It probably won't be that bad, we should take the chance".

Some people of course would prefer to take the chance. Open up and lets see what happens. I have a gut feeling it won't be that bad.

But for the sake of 8-10 more weeks of partial restrictions after 14 months of pretty heavy restrictions, I don't see the benefit in opening up any faster. Measured, sure-footed, and calculated is the only way forward.

Multipass

Multipass wrote: »

Too bad, let people be hospitalised, same concern as any other disease now. Better to spend this money (we are still squandering in the billions) on catching up the waiting lists for conditions with far higher risk.

I agree. The restrictions that we have experienced, and all the repercussions from them, are defensible in the context of deaths. Restrictions are not defensible in the context of ‘long Covid’ IMO. The balance is completely different

timmyntc

seamus wrote: »

Sorry to drag the thread back a bit, I just wanted to point something out.

I'm not going to disagree with any of these posts, they could all be correct. But there's a common thread here - it's all opinion. It what we think "may" happen. And that is as true for my post as it is for anyone else's.

But what's the correct thing to do here? To look at the possible worst-case scenarios (guided by some rational numbers, not ISAG hysteria) and be guided by them, or to say, "It probably won't be that bad, we should take the chance".

Some people of course would prefer to take the chance. Open up and lets see what happens. I have a gut feeling it won't be that bad.

But for the sake of 8-10 more weeks of partial restrictions after 14 months of pretty heavy restrictions, I don't see the benefit in opening up any faster. Measured, sure-footed, and calculated is the only way forward.

Yes but not all opinions are equal. Some are outlandish and incredibly unrealistic - there's no way we will see another 100k infection or anything close given how much of the population is vaccinated already - seeing as we know vaccinated people are much less likely to transmit the virus, all those vaccinaes administered will greatly slow down the virus' spread. Coupled with an ongoing vaccine rollout, it simply isn't feasible that we'll see anything close to that level of virus spread, restrictions or no restrictions.

By your assertion that "its all opinions" you could say the same about modellers, or NPHET or govt advice - it hasnt happened yet, its just some guys opinion. Semantics in the extreme.

AdamD

seamus wrote: »

Sorry to drag the thread back a bit, I just wanted to point something out.

I'm not going to disagree with any of these posts, they could all be correct. But there's a common thread here - it's all opinion. It what we think "may" happen. And that is as true for my post as it is for anyone else's.

But what's the correct thing to do here? To look at the possible worst-case scenarios (guided by some rational numbers, not ISAG hysteria) and be guided by them, or to say, "It probably won't be that bad, we should take the chance".

Some people of course would prefer to take the chance. Open up and lets see what happens. I have a gut feeling it won't be that bad.

But for the sake of 8-10 more weeks of partial restrictions after 14 months of pretty heavy restrictions, I don't see the benefit in opening up any faster. Measured, sure-footed, and calculated is the only way forward.

Assuming the worst case scenario isn't neccesarily the best thing to do (and yours was beyond that in my opinion), we don't guide our decision making based on worst case scenarios at all times. I don't think your numbers were rational either, as many have pointed out.

On your final point, I can't agree. We've somehow gotten to the point of casting aside 8-10 weeks of additional restrictions with little thought. You don't see any benefit? Billions of Euro, hundreds of thousands out of unemployment, businesses getting a proper busy season, additional enjoyment in people's lives (I think we've forgotten this matters).

And yet I'm still not saying open everything tomorrow. But when we open indoor dining in July, actually open it. No nonsensical rules that are pure theatre.