Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

Funsterdelux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185195#Comment_118185195

Whats the simple measure?

Sweet.Science

The modeling is laughable

400k covid cases in January

We've had only 500k cases in 19 months. Why will nobody call them out on this nonsense .

mollser

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1461260116066512899

🤣ffs! We're being taken for absolute fools😆

I would say, that Nolan's original modelling for this wave looks to be pretty accurate actually, cases peaking in 2/3rd week of Nov and I think his hospitalisations model looks accruate too. I really wish the govt held their nerve this time, rather than driving a hole new level of uncertainty and fear (amongst elderly mainly). Uncertainty which is absolutely driving a whole new level of socialisation in anticipation of more restrictions. Again their lack of behavourial gurus is letting them badly down, also with the complete focus (perhaps by the media...) on the pessimistic.

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185279#Comment_118185279

It's complete nonsense made up rubbish in an attempt to scare people, again. NPHET and the government have been constantly on the airwaves and TV over the last 24hrs playing with peoples emotions. We haven't even got a journalist worth their salt to call them out on it not a single one complete bunch of nodding dogs. Predictions like that would get laughed out the door in the UK.

rob316

I thought it was 200,000 yesterday

Patrick2010

Its ridiculous that they're never called out on it. They have their regular spokesman Fergal Bowers on RTE just quoting them verbatim without question.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185351#Comment_118185351

Glynn was predicting 200,000 and Holohoop was predicting 400,000. You couldnt make this **** up. We have had over 500000 cases in 19 months. I love to know where they are pulling these numbers from

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185376#Comment_118185376

Based on 12,000 cases a day and it's their most pessimistic set of numbers. From what we have seen to date on modelling it will be way out but it is unquestionably being used at present to scare people into modifying their behaviour. Meanwhile 83% of over 80s have had boosters and 35% of over 70s.

Deeper Blue

Sure didn't they predict 2000 deaths between July and September back in June?

Any chance there's a journalist in the country that might actually call them out on their useless models?

lee_baby_simms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185359#Comment_118185359

Sadly the likes of Bowers, Richard Chambers and Gavan Reilly don’t really think it’s appropriate to call any of NPHETs decisions or projections into question.

It’s explainer journalism on behalf of the government. Their job is to translate policy, not question it.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118183141#Comment_118183141

Yes if you look at the headline numbers there is little change but dig a little deeper and things are looking more positive. I can only supply figures for Scotland so here you go.

Yes overall case numbers are rising in Scotland, however this is being driven almost entirely by infections in <14's. The cases rates here have gone from 400 (31st Oct - end of half term) to 720 this week. The case rates in this age group are still increasing rapidly.

In age groups 20-50+ the case rates (<300) also increased this month by circa 100 but are now levelling off

In the older age groups 60+ case rates are all decreasing and all are at quite a low level now at around 100 per 100K

With hospitalisations, these peaked in Scotland around 1100 on 20th Sept at they are now at 770. (case rates peaked at 6400 on 3rd Sept)

Death rates also peaked around end of September at 23 per day, they are now falling rapidly and are currently at 7 per day

So yes Scotland is not out of the woods yet but things are looking brighter.

in terms of introducing further restrictions, there is a discussion on this (behind paywall but you get the idea)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-in-scotland-john-swinney-urged-to-scrap-vaccine-passports-7dp6chl8d

Funsterdelux

Modelling scenarios are not predictions.

Its nearly 2 years of this stuff and people keep still jump to the same old nonesense.

Deeper Blue

Wasn't our glacially slow reopening meant to stop us from going backwards?

Yet they pulled the rug out from everyone days before the 22nd Oct and here we are less than a month later going backwards already.

How the **** are the people that advised us to do this (i.e NPHET) still dictating policy in this country? They're clearly not fit for purpose and new ideas are needed. It's actually scandalous that these lads are still employed.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185407#Comment_118185407

You have to laugh. Holohoop was on The Last Word predicting 400,000 and Glynn on RTE news predicting 200,000. These 2 gobshites work with the same group and both are predicting different numbers 🙄

Láidir agus Dílis

BMI is a funny thing. I'm 6ft 2.7in height, and 16st. i do a lot of Core and Weight training, plus farming and cycle a lot. I've trained everyday this year for well over an hour, sometimes up to 3hrs, bar 7 days. When I train I push myself.

I'm mid 40s and healthy and my BMI comes in at overweight 28. But there isn't a pick of flesh on me, I'm a very strong build. Rugby flanker type. When I tell my work colleagues I'm borderline obese, they laugh and say they're all fcuked! About 7 years ago I went on a very fruit and veg based diet, was 14st. Everyone said I looked miserable. I picked up an awful lot of colds etc. I was running 8 miles daily. We can't all do the cross country look, I'm just a big boned man. My late father was the same, big wrists, hands, arms, shoulders etc. I eat really healthily. My 5 a day at the least, fruit, veg, meat. No sugars (chocolate, fizzy drinks etc). I go to a chipper once a year. No white bread, i use stone ground brown like McCambridge.

DarkJager21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185482#Comment_118185482

But they are predictions because the whole point of modelling is to envisage how a situation will develop. Whoever is doing these projections really needs to answer what they are basing these numbers on and what data they are inputting to get them - also has this data set been verified to be somewhat accurate before they used it. It’s not acceptable anymore for this random number bullshit, if you are going to state there will be 200000 cases in December you can fuckin well come out and display the methods you used to calculate it.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185482#Comment_118185482

We use them here as a primary driver of public health policy. One of the issues with ours since summer is what they are taking into account, what values they use and their tendency to focus on the most pessimistic.

Deeper Blue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185482#Comment_118185482

Modelling scenarios are used to dictate policy and are for all intents and purposes the same thing as predictions

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185446#Comment_118185446

We'd need some actual journalists in the country first for that. Vincent Browne is the last decent one i can remember and he's retired.

DarkJager21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185526#Comment_118185526

I would pay PPV money to see Vincent Browne get Tony,Nolan & Martin on and just rip them to pieces for an hour straight. It would literally be the best kind of car crash tv.

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185453#Comment_118185453

A lot of these lads live in hope of getting a government PR job eventually with a decent pension at the end of it. Lack of integrity is a real live issue for journalism here.

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185359#Comment_118185359

If you watched Micheal Martins announcement on RTE earlier this week you may have noticed something.

At 6.01, the voiceover did not say "And now, an announcement from our Taoiseach Michael Martin".

No, at 6.01, the voiceover said (paraphrasing) "As we face rising case numbers and worrying levels of hospitalisations, we now hear from Michael Martin regarding the worsening covid emergency".

Can anybody spot the difference? RTE did not just give Martin a platform, they framed the discussion and prepped the audience, they set the tone and as such he was able to skip past any justification and go straight to the decrees.

That is FOX news style commentary and it sums up exactly how in thrall RTE are to the NPHET government, and anybody who thinks this is ok is an idiot quite frankly.

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185490#Comment_118185490

It's actually beyond laughable tbh. These mugs are paid handsomely for this and they can't even get the basics right. I mean if it was off by 1 or 2k fair enough still unacceptable but there's just a tiny bit of a difference between 200k and 400k. Imo it just proves they are just making numbers up that sound scary to people in order to stop us socialising and enjoying our life.

DarkJager21

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185547#Comment_118185547

Rte are loving this, just like they have been all along. Claire Byrne creaming herself at the thought of another lockdown, practically begging for it and that’s before you even factor in their barefaced incorrect poll results. There’s a simple solution for this - stop paying a tv licence and stop funding this grotesque government propaganda wing. They won’t get another cent from me.

Elmo

Now I see that 37% of deaths occurred in unvaxed people since April 1st, get the vax people get it now, why are we so stupid. 9% v 37% the figures add up, the Vax helps prevent Death, get the vax. And stop the discussion. (Good bye boards.ie)

We should be fully open. If hospitals get overwhelmed then so be it. The same happens every winter anyways and we get on with things.

The option to fix it is there if we ever decide to.

I'd prefer more deaths in the short term and to start prioritizing the future. Young people in this country deserve more than huge national debt along with health and housing crisis.

We might think we are saving lives. But actually we're destroying futures.

Funsterdelux

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185506#Comment_118185506

Of course.

Whats changed in the last 6 or so months have they stopped disclosing their models?

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118184811#Comment_118184811

Sorry missed this.

Loosely; put them on a certain level of lockdown. Things like;

• Restricting their access to shops; click & collect or delivery only. Many people asked why can't old people be forced to get their shopping delivered? Why can't unvaccinated people be forced to get deliveries?
• Restricting access to public transport. Hard one to work out, but if you can't get onto public transport without a vaccine/recovery cert, then maybe your workplace should be obliged to facilitate WFH, or otherwise make arrangements.
• As I mentioned before, it might be possible to move the children of unvaccinated people to remote learning until the New Year.

The overall goal here is to limit the opportunities for unvaccinated people to become infected, and therefore reduce the ICU burden. I'm not without a sense of caution here, I know how draconian it sounds. But pandemics don't give a fvck about our principles. "Our hospital system collapsed and loads of people died from preventable illness, but it's all OK because we refused to yield and temporarily restrict the small number of people who chose to not do the right thing". Not sure the history books will make "sacrificing us all for the personal choices of some" sound quite as valiant as we think it is. Equally likely it would be seen as political cowardice and selfishness.

There is of course a limit to what is effective. Unvaccinated people likely exist in personal bubbles, surrounded by similarly like-minded individuals. So the biggest cause of spread probably is, and will remain, them intermixing. Whether any restrictions on the unvaccinated will work, we don't know. Austria has started it, so they're the one to watch.

bennyl10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118185583#Comment_118185583

"if hospitals get overwhelmed then so be it"

wow. that's, wow. and no. that's not a thing we can let happen. The level of overwhelm we're talking of seeing is so far above a normal winter.

You're essentially saying "sure peoiple die all the time, what's the big deal if more die!".

hotmail.com

How many of the unvaccinated have had the virus in the last 6 months ?

Probably a lot. They have natural immunity.