Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207740#Comment_118207740

That's why you are best off looking at the numbers once a week instead of everyday to get a proper idea of things.

lawred2

An arm of the state embracing the post truth world we now inhabit. Without any concern or fear for consequence

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207772#Comment_118207772

52 admissions to hospital in the last 24 hours according to the covid app

10 days ago we had about 4000 cases a day so the lag is also accounted for

Arghus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207767#Comment_118207767

But has anyone ever accurately found out what backlogged cases signify?

We all - or most - assume that they are unreported cases for a particular day that are then rolled over into another day, but does anyone here actually know that is the case for sure.

The debate about backlogs has been going on here since forever, but has anyone ever conclusively got to the bottom of it.

Asking genuinely here. Maybe somebody has the definitive answer.

prunudo

Its bad enough that he goes on solo runs, tries to undermine the government so he gets his way etc. Between his denial of schools not being an issue and his hatred of antigen testings, he's doing harm to the publics confidence in the governments message. The fact he is now using misleading data raises serious questions.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207772#Comment_118207772

Is that so had it down out a few days ago i think based on the hse data.

Its about 1.1% of cases going into hospital and 0.07% go into ICU, so NPHET are doubling the actual hospitalisation rate and trebling the ICU rate.

Doctor Jimbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207767#Comment_118207767

I was listening to the news on newstalk earlier. Today’s cases were reported as the highest daily number since January. I know that’s technically true, but the context (backlog, steady or falling positivity rate) weren’t mentioned. Over a year and a half into this and the media are still going for the most negative angle. And on top of that we have Tony Holohan on a mission to scare people. It’s irresponsible and I genuinely worry for people’s mental health. My dad is constantly worried when we have high numbers on a given day, doesn’t want to hear the context, sure that’s not what the news is saying.

I know I’m going on a bit of a rant here but I find this all so frustrating. It’s possible to get across the seriousness of the situation without this irresponsible nonsense. It genuinely comes across as trying to scare people into better behaviour. What they don’t seem to realise is the people who are scared aren’t the ones they need to get through to.

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207831#Comment_118207831

No. Some journalists have tried to ask but never got a straight answer.

Swab data is more accurate imo along with the positivity rate

Apothic_Red

I don't get the twisty knickers about the backlog data.

Would you rather they hide them & never bother declaring, They have to get added in at some stage.

political analyst

Is there an indication of how many Covid patients in hospital are elderly?

titan18

There actually some questions here based on the higher data Holohan gave today. He said 2-3 people in ICU for thousand cases and 1/4 of those die. That means we're really only getting 2/3 deaths a day based on our current case numbers. Arguments for locking down to prevent that are ridiculous imo.

political analyst

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207836#Comment_118207836

The problem with antigen tests is that they were not being used properly - only if you're asymptomatic you're supposed to use them. If you have symptoms, you must use a PCR test.

HalfAndHalf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207584#Comment_118207584

Just Tony following Tony’s narrative of recommending closing X Y and Z and restricting this and that again!

According to his ‘knowledge’ that means that today’s 5634 cases has an additional 125 in hospital and 16 in ICU.

Yet these an increase of 16 in hospital and 1 in ICU.

That is some grade A quality BS right there.

bennyl10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207892#Comment_118207892

Haven’t we been told previously that there’s approx a 2 week overlap for admissions?

so are those the hosp numbers we should “predict” to see soon? Rather than today

BanditLuke

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207779#Comment_118207779

Yeah I've always thought that. I don't get the obsession with daily case numbers tbh.

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207896#Comment_118207896

No. Admissions now are from 10 days ago when we also had 4000 plus cases per day so at that rate the overlap is covered.

The modelling done was based on 2% being hospitalised though

Arghus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207862#Comment_118207862

But, equally, we don't know then that each swab corresponds to an individual announced case?

There must be instances where there's more than one swab taken from an individual.

I can remember this being asked about a few times in the briefings, but, there's been a lot of water under the bridge since then so I don't recall the exact details but the gist of it is, as I recall, is that it's not as straightforward as swabs = cases for a given day.

HalfAndHalf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207896#Comment_118207896

I see @Stheno has answered so just for the craic, using Tony’s magic algorithm based on 4000 cases today we should have 100 new admissions and 8-12 people in ICU.

We didn’t!

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207925#Comment_118207925

I think the issue that causes the discrepancies is that with higher volumes it can take time to match swabs to new positives

Either the daily swab data or weekly numbers is more straightforward for me tbh

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207939#Comment_118207939

No my numbers were based on 10 days ago to take into account the lag

Same numbers anyway as we'd 4000 odd cases then too.

John.Icy

Well there's no backlogs anymore - it's a 3 day period to announce a case so carryovers =/= backlogs. Fergal Bowers just tweeted that daily cases covers 'many days' so whether it even is capped to 3 days is debatable. It's frustrating but they've given the wiggle room now to allow for the random 1000 extra cases that appear vs. swabs without it being considered a backlog.

On another note, is there a reason why processing of swabs to cases has gone absolutely wild lately? I don't remember it ever being so weird, but maybe it has been and on a smaller scale it doesn't seem so wild. If it's workload or staffing issues then why can they have 5500+ processed then the next day it drops to 4000. Or the 19th Nov it drops all the way to just above 3000? Whatever about overall system capacity hindering things in terms of raw testing and so on, but every second day atm or so there is a drastic change in the numbers reported. I don't get after all this time that there is still so much variance in the process. Curious auld stuff.

But as others have said - just stick with the rolling averages for cases but no harm in following daily swab numbers as these are much more steady even if the number doesn't have a 1:1 correspondence.

Happydays2020

Worrying that someone who leads public health is engaging in fake news on hospitalisation data. Is it fake news on school transmission? Is it fake news on the benefits of antigen tests?

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208113#Comment_118208113

It's not fake news per se on hospitalisation, more assumptions based on modelling.

They (NPHET) don't seem to adapt to real life data much

As for schools the ECDC have come out and said they are high risk but that seems to be being ignored.

Not sure about antigens tbh

JRant

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207891#Comment_118207891

That's NPHET advice though and is only a very narrow way to look at antigen tests. If someone can isolate at home and doesn't need a PCR it's surely better than having them go to busy test centres.

Apothic_Red

So I look for a bit of hope in this mire & turn to Israel.

Why did we put up with NIAC faffing around for weeks before making a call on boosters with data like the above freely available.

Couple this with Merck/Pfizer antiviral pill & we might be out of this by Spring 2022.

Stheno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208164#Comment_118208164

That's my hope anyways!

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208164#Comment_118208164

Couple this with Merck/Pfizer antiviral pill & we might be out of this by Spring 2022.

No chance. Reopening likely for September 2022 regardless of data, no point reopening to soon and having to "roll back" the restrictions

HalfAndHalf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118207964#Comment_118207964

The curse of the missing comma.

I used your 4000 from 10 days ago:

Read it as:

I see @Stheno has answered so just for the craic, using Tony’s magic algorithm based on 4000 cases 10 days ago, today we should have 100 new admissions and 8-12 people in ICU.

We didn’t.

👍

KrustyUCC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118208139#Comment_118208139

If the rate was actually 3% Tony & Co would have no problems adapting

CruelSummer

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2821%2902243-1/fulltext

Interesting, the pandemic of the unvaccinated isn’t standing up to evidence.

@astrofool I already stated that the side effects are under reported in current Covid vaccines due to a lag in time between the investigations and adding them to the statistics. I’ve no issue with other childhood vaccinations whatsoever or travel vaccinations either for that matter. Many of which I took for travel overseas.

I do have an extremely big issue with mandating vaccines like Covid vaccines on populations in the EU, forcing them on people and boosters on us. Absolutely people should get them if they so wish. 92% of adults did that in Ireland and yet here we are. There have been some shameful posts on this thread in relation to excluding children of ‘unvaccinated’ parents from schools, ostracising people from society and imprisonment. None of these suggestions belong in a western democracy, posters such as these should go & live in China for awhile under their social credit system & report back to boards. Although all the evidence is pointing towards no return to normality for Western Democracies going forward so maybe they’ll be right at home in Stasi Ireland.