Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

UsBus

Practically every Irish article I'm seeing today is fixated on the reinfection rates of Omicron and how much more transmissible it is compared to Delta.

You then read what's being said in South Africa about this variant. Yes it's more transmissible but they are seeing extremely low levels of sickness, colds, sore throats etc. I think South Africa has been shafted here taking the brunt, near instant restrictions and market panic. There doesn't seem to be any serous level of sickness arising from this variant.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263865#Comment_118263865

It's nobody's business where I work - and I don't intend to dox myself just to prove a point on boards either. Might aswell say my dad works at Nintendo for all the virtual clout it gives you.

No, I back up my positions with evidence. Here is a nice study from Germany which attempts to assess child hospitalisation, ICU and death rates. Of particular interest is the fact that the fatality rate for children 5-11 with no comorbidities could not be calculated due to a lack of cases - in all of Germany no healthy 5-11 year olds died from covid.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.30.21267048v1

Covid infected children are neither a strain on the health service or a risk to themselves. Vaccinate those who need it, but spare the crocodile tears about child covid rates. It's a non factor.

irishish

Worldwide the question was always the economy versus the disease, one or the other.

They didn't know how it was going to work, made a bet that the disease would disappear, and so put the focus on the economy.

From day one they refused to close airports in a global pandemic, to the recent opening of nightclubs during case numbers going out of control.

Is it any wonder we're on a merry go round that's getting worse with each spin? They're trying to protect an economy that is dying anyway, while mucking about with the disease halfheartedly. You can't have your cake and eat it, and this is the result of trying to do so.

Obviously it's not guaranteed, it's an educated guess, but if we aren't in this same situation this time next Christmas, except with much less money, much less of an economy left and many more people going insane, I'll eat my car piece by piece.

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263900#Comment_118263900

No idea how they can even attempt to model it. Pure guesswork

Their pessimistic scenario has 30% hit to vaccines & 40% more transmissible.

I hope someone in that cabinet meeting is demanding to know where they pulled these numbers from

The Nu man in town

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263951#Comment_118263951

Good point, at 20% positivity they would need 75000 tests a day. They can't scale up much more as they simply won't have the staff.

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263966#Comment_118263966

Yes agree with that .

But the letters to the government are published as well . Who is publishing them ?

The media. Why ? Because it sells .

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263740#Comment_118263740

A % of any population are going to be either procrastinators or will be slow to try something new. Doesn’t even necessarily imply hesitancy. Thousands of people also do their NCT months after it’s due, file their tax returns a couple of months late, put off going to the dentist until they’re in agony or are still using the Telecom Éireann discount bundle they signed up to in 1997 and not because they’re afraid of something or don’t have the resources, that’s just how they operate.

It’s challenge when you deal with any large public group that all have to do something like compete a form or check in for a flight etc etc

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263962#Comment_118263962

Very . Basic .

Deeper Blue

Why should we take any NPHET models seriously?

They've been miles off EVERY SINGLE F**KING TIME

The Nu man in town

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263972#Comment_118263972

I know you won't answer but I will ask anyway, have you a source for this claim that people are dying of cancer because hospital staff are overwhelmed with covid patients?

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263957#Comment_118263957

They are powerful , but are not IN power .

If they are the government are the ones who should be accounting to the public as to why that is so, not hiding behind them and wringing their hands .

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263962#Comment_118263962

The modelling algorithms they use can take hundreds of variables. It's complex science, but abstracted enough to let people plug in a few numbers and it spits out few graphs.

They've always produced more than the 2 basic models, and they have probably done so this time. But there's no excuse for plucking figures out of the air. Run fifty models if necessary.

If the variant is 5/20/40% more resistant

If the variant is 5/10/20% more infectious

If the variant is -10/-5/5/10% more virulent.

If people increase their mixing. If they maintain it. If they reduce it.

Don't try to bullsh1t people and worry that an optimistic scenario is too optimistic. Show it anyway. Average all of the scenarios and tell us what comes out. Because that's the one that's probably going to be the most likely.

As usual the leaking of the letter is probably more sensationalist than the actual thing, but if the models are all based off this 30% thing, then this is just complete nonsense.

Gusser09

I've not much of a problem with people who don't want to get vaxxed because of bodily autonomy etc. It's the 5G government controlling ranting idiots I can't stand.

2 weeks to flatten the curve people.

irishish

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264002#Comment_118264002

Generally, you'd have to recognise that if the hospitals are under stress with covid, and that's with current restrictions, and with masks, and with working from home, and with vaccinations and so on, then it stands to reason that this situation is bound to have a negative impact on everything else a hospital is supposed to be doing in ordinary times.

No numbers are needed for that broad picture.

the kelt

In their letter to the government today, Holohan says that the Omicron variant poses serious concern in the coming weeks, with as many as 400 in ICU in January should the variant become dominant.

In the same article, he concedes that "...it's impossible to quantify" the risk and that little is known about the Omicron variant.

I mean seriously??

agoodpunt

the goverment are happy or allowing the leaks it scares some people and creates confusion and give time to judge the mood

It make the vaccine rollout a worthless failure having never opened proper and now take back some

not there thank god

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263915#Comment_118263915

Like I said earlier ACE, modelling and projections are catnip to middle management morons, often peddled by charlatans selling catnip. AKA they have, what's the term I'm looking for? Sweet fúck all of a clue. Predicting future trends is incredibly difficult, especially as you say they when have no idea how this new variant is going to act. It could be much worse, it could be much better, it could do bugger all of note to the figures. Flip a coin and pick one. It would be about as accurate. But fear sells. Especially if you want to retain control of a narrative for whatever reasons.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263941#Comment_118263941

I'm pretty sure the very smart people in the NTMA have it covered and a lot of our debt is now long term anyway.

titan18

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264003#Comment_118264003

I'd argue they are in power as they have most of the media on their side. They recommend something and also leak it to the media and when the media are in agreement, the government succumb.

I think the government are idiots who'll fail anyway but it should be NPHET to government, and government to media and nation. Not these leaks and multiple channels out.

ACitizenErased

The Batswana are suggesting now that the variant came from Europe. 4 diplomats tested positive on Nov 11th (subsequently sequenced as omicron) after travelling from Europe.

"Some of the first cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus to be detected in Botswana — which were among the first known in the world — were in foreign diplomats who had traveled to the country from Europe, the country’s president said.

President Mokgweetsi Masisi told CNN on Thursday that four diplomats who tested positive for the coronavirus on Nov. 11, and who were later found to be carrying the new variant, “came from a number of countries.” He added: “Yes, some had been to Europe, and some had been elsewhere.” He did not offer more details.

On Sunday, Botswana’s health minister, Edwin Dikoloti, said that most of the 19 Omicron cases that have been detected in his country were “imported.”"

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/botswana-diplomats-omicron-europe.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118261994#Comment_118261994

I see that now. Yeah, there is a lot of irrational behaviour at work in government. The usual suspects in the firing line of course, hospitality and entertainment.

purplefields

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118263997#Comment_118263997

The models are probably what happens if the situation is left unfettered.

The people see the stark projections and modify their behaviour.

Cases then start decreasing. The model has done its 'job'.

The Nu man in town

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264019#Comment_118264019

"IF" the hospitals are overwhelmed with covid patients.

They are not at the moment though.

irishish

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264055#Comment_118264055

So what are they to do?

What's anyone supposed to do here?

Allow it to balloon out of control? Do nothing?

The Nu man in town

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264039#Comment_118264039

No sources then. I am referring to the present, hospitals are not overwhelmed at the moment.

I accept that, overall, since the start of the pandemice a whole load of screenings / procedures have been missed, but that a whole different fallout we will be dealing with in years to come.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118262038#Comment_118262038

You can make a very weak case for it when 35% or more are unvaccinated but not with 7% and some of those are 12-15s!

the kelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264068#Comment_118264068

Keep lowering hospital numbers by people taking the initiative to do that, like they were asked to do and like whats actually been happening.

The NPHET response: More restrictions!!

copeyhagen

does anyone have the chart of their last predictions that were off the wall bonkers crazy?

The Nu man in town

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264068#Comment_118264068

We can't keep dumping restrictions on people on the unlikely off chance that one of NPHET's doomsday models might eventually be right.

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118264038#Comment_118264038

Sure Scotland are reporting cases now from the 22nd of November.... a week after cop26 rolled out of town