Are we excited yet?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119204760#Comment_119204760

Happened to a friend of mine. He was telling me recently he lost 86% of his pension and was going to have to keep working instead of buying a property in Portugal as planned.

deadduck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119205267#Comment_119205267

Only if they sell. As long as you have enough patience, you’ll be fine, as has been shown over the course of BTC’s lifetime

it’s only a loss if you sell, and if you didn’t invest more than you could do without, then there’s no reason to not just HODL until things are on the up again

iColdFusion

You know you're in trouble when WWN do a story about it 😄

https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2022/06/14/crypto-crash-who-could-have-seen-this-coming/

Back on topic its hard not to notice that nearly everything crypto claims to be has turned out to be untrue eg

Its a solid appreciating asset like digital gold! (nope)

Its an asset separate from those crazy stockmarkets and global currencies controlled by greedy bankers! (Drops even more than stock markets and in tandem every time)

Is a hedge against inflation! (Its easy to claim to be a hedge against inflation when there is no inflation.)

No-one can seize your crypto like money in the bank! (you can barely access your own crypto when things go south)

Its the future! (Forget about Web 3.0, Web3.1, Web 4 and half & Web6.9, its Web 14.32 that is the future!)

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119205566#Comment_119205566

Ah jaysus. Those stories are terrible. By all means have that when you are in your 30s and you have the time to make it back and adjust. When you're getting near retirement age you don't want to be putting the house on the roll of a dice

Grumpypants

Remember. This is the crash they are all talking about.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208105#Comment_119208105

You should look at the version of the same graph with a linear y axis rather than a logarithmic one and see what it looks like. 😊

Log scales can be very distorting if you don't understand what you are looking at, your graph is an excellent example of it.

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208105#Comment_119208105

That is so f**king misleading. Complete misrepresentation.

HGVRHKYY

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208155#Comment_119208155

But if you zoom in on this and look at only 2013/2014 and 2017/2018, it's basically the same as what we're seeing here with the 2017/2018 and 2021/2022 price movements, it's just on an even bigger scale. I doubt most people knowledgeable on crypto didn't expect a similar crash to this at some point (I definitely did, just not for another while due to the lengthening cycles theory), and obviously we're all anticipating that a similar run up and crash will occur again in another few years (possibly 2025/2026 after the 2024 halving) on an even bigger scale, at which point the 2017/2018 points on a graph like this will end up looking the same as the 2013/2014 points currently do.

At this stage people should be well aware of the halvings and their historical impact on the supply and then price

Grumpypants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208202#Comment_119208202

No it's not.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208202#Comment_119208202

It's all about context. Log scales have a purpose, you can see that it's much easier to spot the small variances in the log graph compared to the linear one because the scale is compressed. On the other hand, it hides the huge drop because again, the scale is compressed.

Dropping log scale graphs in randomly is certainly misleading, especially if the audience may not pick up on what they are looking at.

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208321#Comment_119208321

I know what it is. In the context that it was used here it was most definitely a misrepresentation.

Grumpypants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208367#Comment_119208367

No it's not. It shows the number of similar sized dips on the long long track upwards. This is just the latest in a line of small blips.

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208383#Comment_119208383

"Similar sized" dips they are not.

Similar shapes on relative scales maybe.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208292#Comment_119208292

If you currently own bitcoin, what is your weighted average purchase price (normalised to 1BTC)? That is more relevant to you than going on about BTCUSD being 5c in 2011.

What consolation would it be to a person who lost, say, half their savings if the S&P went all the way from its high of about 4,800 to 2,400 for you to tell them that "sure the S&P was less than a tenner back in the 40's"

Grumpypants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119208399#Comment_119208399

€400 for 1 bitcoin.

Sure if they invested a tenner in the 40s and now had €4,000,000 but lost half of it. I'd still consider that they are doing okay.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119209166#Comment_119209166

Most people wouldn't have bought into the S&P in the 40's ....... the same as most people probably didn't buy into BTC @ 400.

A load of general public threw money into it over the past year or two (which it what drove it so high). Anyone who bought at any stage in 2021 or 2022 is underwater at the minute. So telling them that it was 400 back X years ago would be of no consolation to them. You can go on about how they were warned not to put in more than they can afford to lose etc etc, but there are frequent backwards looking posts (including your own graph one) which are presenting past performance as some kind of definite indication of the future. It simply is not definite.

Grumpypants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119209217#Comment_119209217

Same way anyone that bought apple stock at the peak is down money today. I'd still say Apple stock was a good investment for most people that bought it. Because if you look at it long term it has been good.

You can pick any small windows to suit your arguement. Prices go up and down. Of course if you ignore all the times something went up and just focus on the part where it went down and say anyone that bought here when it was high and sold here when it was low lost money.

That's just life. If you are getting into investing and buying high and selling low you are going to lose money. Doesn't matter if it is crypto, stock, or cattle.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119209509#Comment_119209509

No. You are using a historical graph of a notoriously volatile product and implying from it that it will shoot back up again. Same as how people on here were urging any newbies to "buy the dip" when it "dipped" back towards 60k.

"You don't lose unless you sell" also has the equivalent "you don't win unless you sell"

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119209509#Comment_119209509

Yes but there is a huge difference between Apple stock and crypto. Apple are a highly profitable company, they produce something of value, the idea that they'll increase in value again in future is based on something that's actually tangible.

Crypto is entirely based on PR fluff and sentiment, it can go down and stay down.

Jeju

4 days later the Celcius Network still not allowing their customers withdraw their funds. Looking at some of the Twitter feeds looks like alot of ordinary people had invested their savings with this company and ate very worried. An awful shetstorm for those involved. Think alot of damage has been and is to come on the whole Crypto project that no investor large or small will touch it for years.

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119210491#Comment_119210491

Not a great example. Nokia produced something of value too but look at their stock price now. Apple have more competition now with Samsung and Huawei. Everything has some risk. I find Apple hard to listen to when they claim to be moral while their product is produced in factories with horrendous conditions.

Grumpypants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119209583#Comment_119209583

Yes, I am looking at a historical graph that goes up non stop for over ten years. I also look at the underlying technology, the increased interest in the area, the increased investment, and the increased adoption. And then balance all that with the external forces that are driving all investments, economies etc down.

You know daft stuff.

Donald Trump

Many people buy digital tokens in order to jump onto a get-rich-quick bandwagon. "Increased interest" just means more people buying into that idea. If they buy it at $100 today it is because they think they will be able to sell it to the next person at $200. For that next person to buy it at $200, they will have to think that they can sell it at $400. There is nothing wrong with that. But people should understand that that is what it is.

When is the last time that you paid for anything with BTC? Or had a use for it? Plenty of people will laugh at the concept of an NFT. An NFT is just an entry on a blockchain saying you own some image or whatever. Your bitcoin is also just an entry on a blockchain saying that you own a particular sequence of characters. So I don't understand why people will laugh at one but have zero skepticism for the other.

You are entitled to your opinion, but people should be reminded that you have a vested interest in convincing them that it is going to shoot back up. If you can convince enough people that it will go to 1m, then maybe they will give you 500k for yours. You are entitled to do that too. If your average price is $400, then it would appear that you haven't been putting much into it over the past few years........which would seem a little strange if you are so convinced personally that it will continue to shoot up.

People can also take note of the fact that I think there was a record set yesterday for the value of bitcoins transferred to exchanges. Apparently, mainly by miners

Grumpypants

You hit the definition of investing on the head. People buy things at one price in the hope they can sell it later at a higher price.

Have you thought of doing a podcast.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119210720#Comment_119210720

Sometimes investments create revenue streams. Sometimes they act as stores as value. Sometimes they provide tax efficiencies. Plenty of reasons other than just magic bean reasons.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119210602#Comment_119210602

There's no comparison.

Companies produce things. Crypto doesn't really produce anything.

I have no prob investing in crypto, but I'm not under any illusions.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119210773#Comment_119210773

Companies will have assets - human, capital, IP, intangibles. It doesn't mean that they can never go bust, but you can at least put an intrinsic value on them.

Who on here can tell me the intrinsic value of a bitcoin?

Dohnjoe is one of the few posters on here who appears to work in markets.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119210720#Comment_119210720

Investing in a company that goes on to produce goods and hire thousands of employees providing a net benefit to the economy is very different from investing in a Meme-coin that does nothing but consume energy

Just because it's possible to buy low and sell high in both doesn't mean they are the same. The crypto market has more in common with the Baseball trading card market than e.g. the Stock Market.

Grumpypants

If you don't know by now you are choosing to ignore it.

Suckit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119210786#Comment_119210786

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/does-bitcoin-have-intrinsic-value

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