Are we excited yet?

ConseyMan

seannash wrote: »

I think bear is coming, historically sundays are bad for crypto and bar a few pumps which have been squashed it seems the momentum to get up and over 42k is gone.
Just my opinion though

I just don't know, could be a double bottom and we're on the rebound. Watching closely to see if i should buy. nnnngggghhhh

seannash

seannash wrote: »

I think bear is coming, historically sundays are bad for crypto and bar a few pumps which have been squashed it seems the momentum to get up and over 42k is gone.
Just my opinion though

There is no logic to it at all. A sub-reddit or an Elon Musk tweet could send it soaring for no particular reason whatsoever.

But my feeling is times have definitely changed. There is a real push by central banks and governments to quash the crypto uprising. Also, its reputation of being the digital gold is in tatters. At a turbulent time in the markets investors have opted to actually sell their crypto and buy gold and commodities.

FFVII

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no logic to it at all. A sub-reddit or an Elon Musk tweet could send it soaring for no particular reason whatsoever.

But my feeling is times have definitely changed. There is a real push by central banks and governments to quash the crypto uprising. Also, its reputation of being the digital gold is in tatters. At a turbulent time in the markets investors have opted to actually sell their crypto and buy gold and commodities.

Digital gold was always utter bullsh1t.

OEP

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is no logic to it at all. A sub-reddit or an Elon Musk tweet could send it soaring for no particular reason whatsoever.

But my feeling is times have definitely changed. There is a real push by central banks and governments to quash the crypto uprising. Also, its reputation of being the digital gold is in tatters. At a turbulent time in the markets investors have opted to actually sell their crypto and buy gold and commodities.

This all happened the last time too. Governments said they crack down etc.

ConseyMan

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/institutional-bitcoin-buying-spiked-around-114550894.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/institutional-bitcoin-buying-spiked-around-114550894.html

Bob24

The below charts comparing the current cycle to the previous 2 might provide some reassurance (the crash is reflected, it doesn't look as drastic because the chart are using log scale).

cnocbui

FFVII wrote: »

Digital gold was always utter bullsh1t.

No it wasn't.

quinneerr

Which one of you is this poor bastard?
He spend all his money on crypto Monday, then we crash hard Tuesday.
Here is his initial video and the follow up
Pushing all in. youtube.com/watch?v=dQY1OeOXOq4
The aftermath. youtube.com/watch?v=3oaPz4GTDjI

Just James got Justed, the memes write themselves, He got Bogged hard

ConseyMan

quinneerr wrote: »

Which one of you is this poor bastard?
He spend all his money on crypto Monday, then we crash hard Tuesday.
Here is his initial video and the follow up
Pushing all in. youtube.com/watch?v=dQY1OeOXOq4
The aftermath. youtube.com/watch?v=3oaPz4GTDjI

Just James got Justed, the memes write themselves, He got Bogged hard

Jesus Christ, i skipped the vast majority of it but still that was awful.

quinneerr

quinneerr wrote: »

Which one of you is this poor bastard?
He spend all his money on crypto Monday, then we crash hard Tuesday.
Here is his initial video and the follow up
Pushing all in. youtube.com/watch?v=dQY1OeOXOq4
The aftermath. youtube.com/watch?v=3oaPz4GTDjI

Just James got Justed, the memes write themselves, He got Bogged hard

If this guy is reading, you are a gambling addict and need help. Having looked briefly at some other videos I do hope you are seeing counsellors and such because I do think they can help you

crushproof

I like to believe it is just click bait and he has money elsewhere. And just jumping on the crypto crash buzz to get boost his YouTube channel.

If not he's a fool.

SnuggyBear

He owns about 100 coins

mcriot29

He wishes

Jeff2

I just buy the dip and sell.

Might be interesting to some.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhf_2gJJS1I

Jeff2

Second part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJOzWfsMzJ4

Jeff2

Something happening now.
I'll be watching this.

Markus Antonius

Has anyone asked Chairman Mao if he's actually banning bitcoin or are we just going to take the mainstream media's word for it?

fritzelly

Markus Antonius wrote: »

Has anyone asked Chairman Mao if he's actually banning bitcoin or are we just going to take the mainstream media's word for it?

Canny guys the ccp, sell on the high, ban crypto, buy on the low, we've changed our minds

Jeff2

Jeff2 wrote: »

I just buy the dip and sell.

Might be interesting to some.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhf_2gJJS1I

He was doing so well on the first video, but lost it on the 2nd video and is desperately trying to answer why the graph isn't exactly playing out and just sounds like he's wildly speculating and border line creating a conspiracy theory.

I still think he is spot on in video 1, I would just say there is an added factor and that is the crypto community and hodl and buy the dip has had an affect.

kwestfan08

Not a crypto guy but I’m coming with an open mind.

Can prices be properly charted on a commodity so volatile? Like with share maybe the company produces a great earnings quarter and share price rises because of that.

What’s the story with btc and the rest? When a tweet can knock 10-20% off the value or a tv appearance make other coins double in value are you as well reading your horoscope or checking the “vibes” to see if the price will rise or fall? When the coins themselves produce nothing of value is it just rampant speculation on the part of buyers controlling the price and therefore can’t really be rationalised?

kwestfan08

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Not a crypto guy but I’m coming with an open mind.

Can prices be properly charted on a commodity so volatile? Like with share maybe the company produces a great earnings quarter and share price rises because of that.

What’s the story with btc and the rest? When a tweet can knock 10-20% off the value or a tv appearance make other coins double in value are you as well reading your horoscope or checking the “vibes” to see if the price will rise or fall? When the coins themselves produce nothing of value is it just rampant speculation on the part of buyers controlling the price and therefore can’t really be rationalised?

Pretty much. You're simply dealing with human nature, on the up you have hope, optimism, Euphoria. While in a Euphoric state all it takes is a dose of reality and then you're on the downward trend of Anxiety, panic and depression.

As the video's above point out, this is all market manipulation. It's all so text book because as you say, there simply are no fundamentals behind cryptos. How many people actually use crypto, block chain, smart contracts etc etc in real life outside of drug gangs and human trafficking?

Personally I'm waiting for an exit point, to me that is break even. I was up 30% at one stage and my gut feeling was take the profits, but we were all caught up in Euphoria and the sentiment at the time was "to the moon".

The moral of the story is don't get greedy, take your profits.

Drumpot

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Not a crypto guy but I’m coming with an open mind.

Can prices be properly charted on a commodity so volatile? Like with share maybe the company produces a great earnings quarter and share price rises because of that.

What’s the story with btc and the rest? When a tweet can knock 10-20% off the value or a tv appearance make other coins double in value are you as well reading your horoscope or checking the “vibes” to see if the price will rise or fall? When the coins themselves produce nothing of value is it just rampant speculation on the part of buyers controlling the price and therefore can’t really be rationalised?

I am not a “crypto” person but I threw a few quid in to see how it plays out.

There is no intrinsic value to actual currency either. The paper money we use has no other value then what we perceive it to be by consensus. That is not something I would hold against crypto.

Another thing is that we are an awlfully fickle species , the banking collapse of 2007 shows how quickly even our mainstream financial system can be vulnerable to panic. So far the crypto industry hasn’t needed government bailouts and if anything has been attacked by the same failed institutions/regulators who are more concerned with protecting their own cartel.

However , crypto to me (admittedly without extensive knowledge) looks basically like an alternative version of own financial system on steroids. We like to think our system is flawless, but it’s as vulnerable in all the ways it was in 2007 but we don’t care and won’t care until the next inevitable issues arise again. I think crypto in its current format is more comparable with gambling/speculation then investing in the general sense but I suppose you could say we all gamble on the current financial system without giving it much thought.

The binance app I’ve still not familiarised myself with fully, has all Sorts of competitions , kind of like betfair betting app. The crypto universe does have way more of a gambling feel. I do wonder if part of the price rises over the last year has been the take up of crypto by the average joe. Partial boredom, partial alternative to betting, partial riches promises and much easier to access has prob helped. With some Rich folk throwing a few quid for the crack.

The likes of musk show how easily it is to manipulate its value , in the same way Trump showed how easy it is to manipulate masses into following crazy. But I just find these as extreme examples of society that happens every day and we refuse to see. I don’t see musks actions as anything unique , maybe uniquely obvious manipulation where most of its done in the background or more subtly.

Meh, I know I’ve gone off on one, sorry. But crypto is not unique as a fad, it may or may not take off more legitimately, but if anybody is investing my suggestion is just invest what you can afford to lose and are willing to lose. I’ve seen some posters in here talk about buying dips etc, which is fine, but I would wonder if some are investing more then they would be comfortable losing on the assumption the graph of crypto will generally continue to rise.

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty much. You're simply dealing with human nature, on the up you have hope, optimism, Euphoria. While in a Euphoric state all it takes is a dose of reality and then you're on the downward trend of Anxiety, panic and depression.

As the video's above point out, this is all market manipulation. It's all so text book because as you say, there simply are no fundamentals behind cryptos. How many people actually use crypto, block chain, smart contracts etc etc in real life outside of drug gangs and human trafficking?

Personally I'm waiting for an exit point, to me that is break even. I was up 30% at one stage and my gut feeling was take the profits, but we were all caught up in Euphoria and the sentiment at the time was "to the moon".

The moral of the story is don't get greedy, take your profits.

I think I’m currently at circa 20% capital exposure to the maximum I invested if the value goes to zero. I was cashing out profits at different times because I’m trying to be responsible and teach myself some discipline. It’s so easy to get caught up in it.

I heard of one guy who’s made make then a million and he’s holding out for 2. That’s Greed to me. I’d like to think I would take at least 500k, pay the tax, pay off my mortgage and let the balance do whatever it will do. I think it’s easy to get caught in a greed cycle and over confidence which I think people who make money can suffer. Quite often it’s mostly luck and lucky timing but people convince themselves it’s their extensive knowledge and research.

I’ve read about it before in different psychology material, but even when you place a bet you need only remember now exciting it can feel to win and how more confident you can feel after a few wins on the trot. We are remarkably delusional about how much we can predict some things , particularly when we are not in control of all the other external factors we can’t control.

Drumpot

Drumpot wrote: »

I think I’m currently at circa 20% capital exposure to the maximum I invested if the value goes to zero. I was cashing out profits at different times because I’m trying to be responsible and teach myself some discipline. It’s so easy to get caught up in it.

I heard of one guy who’s made make then a million and he’s holding out for 2. That’s Greed to me. I’d like to think I would take at least 500k, pay the tax, pay off my mortgage and let the balance do whatever it will do. I think it’s easy to get caught in a greed cycle and over confidence which I think people who make money can suffer. Quite often it’s mostly luck and lucky timing but people convince themselves it’s their extensive knowledge and research.

I’ve read about it before in different psychology material, but even when you place a bet you need only remember now exciting it can feel to win and how more confident you can feel after a few wins on the trot. We are remarkably delusional about how much we can predict some things , particularly when we are not in control of all the other external factors we can’t control.

If you're lucky enough to have taken profits you could continue "playing with the house money". Notice again we're talking gambling terms.

I'd imagine the guy who has made a million also has taken out his initial capital and then some. He literally has nothing to lose and he's playing with the house money. Hard to imagine not being happy with 1 million though!

Dohnjoe

Drumpot wrote: »

I am not a “crypto” person but I threw a few quid in to see how it plays out.

There is no intrinsic value to actual currency either. The paper money we use has no other value then what we perceive it to be by consensus. That is not something I would hold against crypto.

Another thing is that we are an awlfully fickle species , the banking collapse of 2007 shows how quickly even our mainstream financial system can be vulnerable to panic. So far the crypto industry hasn’t needed government bailouts and if anything has been attacked by the same failed institutions/regulators who are more concerned with protecting their own cartel.

However , crypto to me (admittedly without extensive knowledge) looks basically like an alternative version of own financial system on steroids. We like to think our system is flawless, but it’s as vulnerable in all the ways it was in 2007 but we don’t care and won’t care until the next inevitable issues arise again. I think crypto in its current format is more comparable with gambling/speculation then investing in the general sense but I suppose you could say we all gamble on the current financial system without giving it much thought.

The binance app I’ve still not familiarised myself with fully, has all Sorts of competitions , kind of like betfair betting app. The crypto universe does have way more of a gambling feel. I do wonder if part of the price rises over the last year has been the take up of crypto by the average joe. Partial boredom, partial alternative to betting, partial riches promises and much easier to access has prob helped. With some Rich folk throwing a few quid for the crack.

The likes of musk show how easily it is to manipulate its value , in the same way Trump showed how easy it is to manipulate masses into following crazy. But I just find these as extreme examples of society that happens every day and we refuse to see. I don’t see musks actions as anything unique , maybe uniquely obvious manipulation where most of its done in the background or more subtly.

Meh, I know I’ve gone off on one, sorry. But crypto is not unique as a fad, it may or may not take off more legitimately, but if anybody is investing my suggestion is just invest what you can afford to lose and are willing to lose. I’ve seen some posters in here talk about buying dips etc, which is fine, but I would wonder if some are investing more then they would be comfortable losing on the assumption the graph of crypto will generally continue to rise.

There's little comparison between the financial system and crypto. The latter is an "open to the public" speculation fest.

In the short term, no one really knows what to do, but in the long term, the patterns are a bit clearer. Buy in the depths of the bear, sell when you start seeing Bitcoin ads in bus shelters again.

Most experienced people I know have been silently selling during this bull. They'll load up if there's another long bear. Just requires patience, but the profits can be immense (20x to 30x this time round, over 50x in 2017)

Usual disclaimer: it could go up, it could go down, it may never go up again, etc no one truly knows

grindle

Deleted User wrote: »

How many people actually use crypto, block chain, smart contracts etc etc in real life outside of drug gangs and human trafficking?

Millions of people & without them knowing, which is fine. Everything else you said is right though. Prices are consistently vastly inflated.

Deleted User wrote: »

Hard to imagine not being happy with 1 million though!

It depends on age but €1m (€667k + capital cost) isn't retirement for most.

Drumpot

grindle wrote: »

Millions of people & without them knowing, which is fine. Everything else you said is right though. Prices are consistently vastly inflated.



It depends on age but €1m (€667k + capital cost) isn't retirement for most.

Technically you could make that work very well. If you are on a higer rate of tax from income you could restribute that into a pension over 20 years , paying 40% less income tax on this funds and make it into a million pension pot. If self employed you could potentially do it even faster !

But even if you just drawdown 5% of your 667k every year for the rest of your life (invest in medium risk fund to replenish income) , 32k would facilitate a confortable flexibility in work. You could choose whatever job you want, work pet time etc.

Depends on what your target is and your comfort with loss and how much is enough for whatever it is you want to do in life. If somebody has 1 million now and it goes to 200k for a few years , they may not be as happy they held out for more on reflection.

Each to their own on this but nobody likes losing what they had or more dangerously what they think they had. If your value of crypto was double last week you may feel like it’s under valued this week. But the truth is just like house prices, the only thing that matters is what you sell it for, not what it’s valued at any given time or even what you might think it’s worth.

Maybe I’m just a very conservative type of investor with more conservative goals. I don’t need to be a millionaire nor do I aspire to be one. I just want to make enough

I don’t have any issues with crypto, it’s the human behavior element I find interesting.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

Pretty much. You're simply dealing with human nature, on the up you have hope, optimism, Euphoria. While in a Euphoric state all it takes is a dose of reality and then you're on the downward trend of Anxiety, panic and depression.

As the video's above point out, this is all market manipulation. It's all so text book because as you say, there simply are no fundamentals behind cryptos. How many people actually use crypto, block chain, smart contracts etc etc in real life outside of drug gangs and human trafficking?

Personally I'm waiting for an exit point, to me that is break even. I was up 30% at one stage and my gut feeling was take the profits, but we were all caught up in Euphoria and the sentiment at the time was "to the moon".

The moral of the story is don't get greedy, take your profits.

There is no one size fits all correct approach. I'm happy with being what you call greedy. I see it as being realistic.

Say you bought 8 BTC for €1000 each, back in the day. The price hits $2000 so you sell four BTC. Congratulations on preserving your €8,000 by foregoing the €200,000 in future profit - the oportunity cost of the 4 you sold for insurance.

If your initial $8,000 was an amount you could afford to lose, then why this intense desire to rush to safety at the first opportunity? I think people who are deeply and emotionally invested in the idea of taking their money off the table at the first opportunity are actually making bets they really can't afford.

banie01

Very interested to see where and how the cash pulled from the crypto market over May is going to be utilised.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/20/nearly-1-trillion-has-just-been-wiped-off-the-cryptocurrency-market-what-happened

Is it a move to cash, a move to equities or an attempt to cover overleveraged margin positions?

I'm carrying a 5figure paper loss at present in the space of last week.
I am very interested to see how the pullback from crypto plays into equity and investments in the current market.
Negative interest rates are a small part of it, but I do feel there is a coming equity storm due to leveraging and gamification of the markets.

grindle

My target would be not working and not having to be frugal so I'll stick with what's worked so far for 5 years. I could have a safe and boring retirement now or I could wait to see where I think things are headed. My taste for risk isn't so stupidly high that I buy memecoins (more fool me, my initial ETH investment would've been very retirement worthy if planted into DOGE) but it's higher than accepting an average wage as a retirement.

Drumpot wrote: »

...nobody likes losing what they had or more dangerously what they think they had.

I've spent years celebrating my portfolio being down 80% and look forward to more. The only people who get upset are the ones who think the prices at ATH during parabolic spikes are fair and reasonable - they'll learn that they're not.