Are we excited yet?

mcriot29

downcow wrote: »

I went in a few years ago at the ATH and watched my money get so low that there was no point in taking it out. Thankfully here we are years later and it double in value.
This time I took a split second decision and took everything out about a week ago (once bitten, twice as shy).
I fully expect to put it back in in due course.

Can you see it dropping much more
Do you think it will drop to 20k BTC

HGVRHKYY

Some annoyingly bearish comments in here based on ignorance, people who probably haven't heard about the idea of the lengthening cycles. This bull run was actually pretty early when it started, so it's strange that some people seem oblivious to the possibility of bearish periods and consolidation periods during what is still overall a bull run. Could we go lower and stay bearish for a while? Yeah, definitely. Is it the end of this cycle's bull run and $64k is the cycle top? Almost certain it isn't. If you don't have patience and are freaking out here you won't be comfortably holding for what could be a few months of sideways price movement and a return to upwards volatility later in the year, maybe even into next year

I've been investing since 2017, throughout the years during times everything was 'dead' and few people were even following crypto, stopped buying around January and now just started accumulating a bit more the past few days since the prices are attractive compared to their recent highs. Sell your crypto to whales and panic buy at higher prices when it picks up again if you want

greenfield21

mcriot29 wrote: »

Can you see it dropping much more
Do you think it will drop to 20k BTC

How much do you own?

No one has a clue where bitcoin goes, you can try and read silly charts if it makes you feel better.

SnuggyBear

downcow wrote: »

I went in a few years ago at the ATH and watched my money get so low that there was no point in taking it out. Thankfully here we are years later and it double in value.
This time I took a split second decision and took everything out about a week ago (once bitten, twice as shy).
I fully expect to put it back in in due course.

Yep, the writing was on the wall but people refused to listen.

mcriot29

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Yep, the writing was on the wall but people refused to listen.

I was going to buy 10k of bitcoin in 2017, but then never did big mistake.
Right now I have 8.5k in eth and 3.5 in ada and then around 1.5’k in mixed ones.
I bought last week after the drop but today I’m down around 3k onwhat I bought so 25 percent drop.
I want to get another 12 k this week but not sure if I should if it drops more I will be at a bigger loss .
Not sure if I should buy more eth or ada

LawBoy2018

mcriot29 wrote: »

I was going to buy 10k of bitcoin in 2017, but then never did big mistake.
Right now I have 8.5k in eth and 3.5 in ada and then around 1.5’k in mixed ones.
I bought last week after the drop but today I’m down around 3k onwhat I bought so 25 percent drop.
I want to get another 12 k this week but not sure if I should if it drops more I will be at a bigger loss .
Not sure if I should buy more eth or ada

I'm gonna jump in once the downtrend is finished, I don't mind paying a bit more. Nothing worse than trying to catch knives + failing as the price tanks.

Dohnjoe

mcriot29 wrote: »

I was going to buy 10k of bitcoin in 2017, but then never did big mistake.
Right now I have 8.5k in eth and 3.5 in ada and then around 1.5’k in mixed ones.
I bought last week after the drop but today I’m down around 3k onwhat I bought so 25 percent drop.
I want to get another 12 k this week but not sure if I should if it drops more I will be at a bigger loss .
Not sure if I should buy more eth or ada

Look at the 2018 chart from the start of the drop, when was the best time to buy?

Knowing that, perhaps ask yourself why you'll be buying in a week. We've been saying it for years: buy in a bear, sell in a bull. It's amazing how few do this, and those that do make serious money.

Del007

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

I'm gonna jump in once the downtrend is finished, I don't mind paying a bit more. Nothing worse than trying to catch knives + failing as the price tanks.

How will you know when the price tanks? It could go to near zero after you do your investment

LawBoy2018

Del007 wrote: »

How will you know when the price tanks? It could go to near zero after you do your investment

What do you mean? I won't invest until the price has finished tanking and things level off. Ofc there's a chance that it might dip further but this won't be the end of the crypto market.

mcriot29

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Look at the 2018 chart from the start of the drop, when was the best time to buy?

Knowing that, perhaps ask yourself why you'll be buying in a week. We've been saying it for years: buy in a bear, sell in a bull. It's amazing how few do this, and those that do make serious money.

But the issue is now are we in bear now is this a good or bad time to buy
Hard to know

Dohnjoe

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

What do you mean? I won't invest until the price has finished tanking and things level off. Ofc there's a chance that it might dip further but this won't be the end of the crypto market.

There will be a sharp rebound at some point, when the "dust settles", the market can still drop another 50% to 75% like it did in 2018 (and 2014/2015 for those of us who remember)

For those who answer "buy it's crypto it will only ever go up in the end", there's no certainty of that.

HillCloudHop

HGVRHKYY wrote: »

Some annoyingly bearish comments in here based on ignorance, people who probably haven't heard about the idea of the lengthening cycles. This bull run was actually pretty early when it started, so it's strange that some people seem oblivious to the possibility of bearish periods and consolidation periods during what is still overall a bull run. Could we go lower and stay bearish for a while? Yeah, definitely. Is it the end of this cycle's bull run and $64k is the cycle top? Almost certain it isn't.

This is pure speculation, you can't state anything with certainty, no one can.
If you're going to use historical charts as a guide, the previous 2017 bull run or any prior bull run never had a >50% pullback whilst remaining intact.

My guess is that this is the end of the current bull run. We'll likely get a few bull traps in the coming year, before it finally bottoms out and consolidates for a while.

Musk and Tesla were the catalyst for the latter half of that price movement. They likely exited the market weeks ago. They definitely aren't going to be holding bags. Made them a good profit and improved Tesla's balance sheet.

SnuggyBear

Del007 wrote: »

How will you know when the price tanks? It could go to near zero after you do your investment

Wait for awhile then start buying back. Spreading out your buys.

mcriot29

HillCloudHop wrote: »

This is pure speculation, you can't state anything with certainty, no one can.
If you're going to use historical charts as a guide, the previous 2017 bull run or any prior bull run never had a >50% pullback whilst remaining intact.

My guess is that this is the end of the current bull run. We'll likely get a few bull traps in the coming year, before it finally bottoms out and consolidates for a while.




Musk and Tesla were the catalyst for the latter half of that price movement. They likely exited the market weeks ago. They definitely aren't going to be holding bags. Made them a good profit and improved Tesla's balance sheet.

So if this is the end of the bull run do you think the price will drop much more of so what would be your Predictions

KyussB

That's strange, why is the thread not full of people buying all of this 50%-off Bitcoin?

If everyone is assuring us it will return to its previous value shortly, you'd expect to see all of the same people piling their money in now, after all.

HillCloudHop

mcriot29 wrote: »

So if this is the end of the bull run do you think the price will drop much more of so what would be your Predictions

My speculation is that it will eventually settle at 10-20k, a higher low than the previous bear market.

That's not to say that Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffet will suddenly all announce they've bought bitcoin and it will shoot up to 100k.

Dohnjoe

mcriot29 wrote: »

But the issue is now are we in bear now is this a good or bad time to buy
Hard to know

We aren't in a bear now, we're in a crash. By bear most mean a prolonged period.

Look at this chart
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/

Maybe you buy tomorrow and magically everything bucks the trend and goes up forever, but historically that hasn't happened. When we have a choice of "I don't know" and historic, I'll go with historic every time. The past isn't a perfect indicator of the future, but crypto (so far) has had a fairly impeccable record of following past trends. Possibly something to do with the herd psychology behind it all not changing much.

I've been selling in the past few months like many I know while all the kids and new users and moonboys have been encouraging others to buy. I could have made more money selling right at peak, but no one can time the peak or low, that's impossible. Hence, buy in a bear, sell in a bull.

It's highly likely there'll be a levelling or rebound, I'm guessing tomorrow or Tuesday (when cash deposits hit exchanges), many could start buying back in and that could trigger it's own little run. All of that is bull**** as far as I am concerned. I'll wait and see how the market is in about 6 months to a year before I even consider buying again.

fritzelly

KyussB wrote: »

That's strange, why is the thread not full of people buying all of this 50%-off Bitcoin?

If everyone is assuring us it will return to its previous value shortly, you'd expect to see all of the same people piling their money in now, after all.

Waiting for it to hit 25k

HGVRHKYY

HillCloudHop wrote: »

This is pure speculation, you can't state anything with certainty, no one can.
If you're going to use historical charts as a guide, the previous 2017 bull run or any prior bull run never had a >50% pullback whilst remaining intact.

My guess is that this is the end of the current bull run. We'll likely get a few bull traps in the coming year, before it finally bottoms out and consolidates for a while.

Musk and Tesla were the catalyst for the latter half of that price movement. They likely exited the market weeks ago. They definitely aren't going to be holding bags. Made them a good profit and improved Tesla's balance sheet.

I'm saying I'm certain it isn't, and it's all speculation. Only way we'll find out is by living through it, just that I'm prepared for a bearish market for a few months

KyussB

fritzelly wrote: »

Waiting for it to hit 25k

Sure you are

HillCloudHop

HGVRHKYY wrote: »

I'm saying I'm certain it isn't, and it's all speculation. Only way we'll find out is by living through it, just that I'm prepared for a bearish market for a few months

Yeah, it could 10k or 100k by the end of the year. No one knows, but I'm waiting for a clear trend to be established before buying more, even if that means missing the absolute bottom.

seannash

mcriot29 wrote: »

But the issue is now are we in bear now is this a good or bad time to buy
Hard to know

I think most would agree this is a crash and a bear will most likely follow.
But honestly no-one knows. I see you are asking but nobody has a clue.
No chart or YouTube personality will show you anything for this scenario. Its all guess work

BrandonBay86

KyussB wrote: »

That's strange, why is the thread not full of people buying all of this 50%-off Bitcoin?

If everyone is assuring us it will return to its previous value shortly, you'd expect to see all of the same people piling their money in now, after all.

I’ve bought over 2,000,000 sats today already. There’s a lot of new weak hands & traders in here, very few long term hodlers.

LawBoy2018

Dohnjoe wrote: »

There will be a sharp rebound at some point, when the "dust settles", the market can still drop another 50% to 75% like it did in 2018 (and 2014/2015 for those of us who remember)

For those who answer "buy it's crypto it will only ever go up in the end", there's no certainty of that.

I agree 100%.

downcow

mcriot29 wrote: »

Can you see it dropping much more
Do you think it will drop to 20k BTC

I honestly have know idea. I bought total 4K of btc eth dash and ltc that Christmas that was the ath was it 2017. Anyhow it was a painful hold. Went down below £700 total I almost took it out several times but thought no point. I took out approx 8k last week.
So I have no idea. If it all stabilises then I will put at least 4K back in but I do realise it could be worth 40p or £10,000 next year

Irish_rat

KyussB wrote: »

That's strange, why is the thread not full of people buying all of this 50%-off Bitcoin?

If everyone is assuring us it will return to its previous value shortly, you'd expect to see all of the same people piling their money in now, after all.

BTC no thanks.

There is some DOT on sale now, that's the first one I would be looking at

KyussB

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

I’ve bought over 2,000,000 sats today already. There’s a lot of new weak hands & traders in here, very few long term hodlers.

Sure you did. Just like I'm sure you bought $53,000 worth near Bitcoin's peak value.

BrandonBay86 wrote:

1,000,000 Satoshis acquired at $53,800.

Always bought the dips, always will.

Dip again I dare you.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116925807&postcount=9255

grindle

BrandonBay86 wrote: »

I’ve bought over 2,000,000 sats today already. There’s a lot of new weak hands & traders in here, very few long term hodlers.

It seems they don't realise that for every panicked 5-10% hourly drop there's a counterparty on the other side of every trade buying it.

OTC trading has huge volumes of BTC being snapped up in the last week.

Irish_rat

KyussB wrote: »

Sure you did. Just like I'm sure you bought $53,000 worth near Bitcoin's peak value.

It's worth very little so it's not that hard to believe. Dunno why he keeps telling everyone though

I'm new to this, so go easy. But what is it with big sell offs on a Sunday? I'm probably over simplifying but when I see prices stabalise on a Sunday I'll be fairly certain we've hit bottom. Is it that predictable? It really does seem to be text book wyckoff distribution as explained a few pages ago.