Are we excited yet?

mcriot29

I reckon this chart is in the money or should I say on the lower bitcoin

elbyrneo

mcriot29 wrote: »

I reckon this chart is in the money or should I say on the lower bitcoin

Watch out for knees and toes

TXPTGR1

It seriously worries me that I might be sharing roads /breathing space with people who actually believe in those TA charts-total droolers

Rob2D

mcriot29 wrote: »

I reckon this chart is in the money or should I say on the lower bitcoin

The only chart guy I really believe in has been calling this for a while now. Hopefully we see it. BTC at 20K? Yes please.

NomadicGray

"$1.3 Trillion Crypto Price Crash: Leaked Goldman Sachs Prediction Gives ‘High Chance’ Ethereum Will Eclipse Bitcoin"

Now that they've accepted Bitcoin as new asset class, presumable after filling their bags, will they be gunning for cheap eth also

Link keeps changing so heres a video instead

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asQMKd_IqIQ

seannash

NomadicGray wrote: »

"$1.3 Trillion Crypto Price Crash: Leaked Goldman Sachs Prediction Gives ‘High Chance’ Ethereum Will Eclipse Bitcoin"

Now that they've accepted Bitcoin as new asset class, presumable after filling their bags, will they be gunning for cheap eth also

https://www.forbes.com/sites/deloitte/2021/05/13/how-stakeholders-can-make-or-break-companies-sustainability-efforts/?sh=48fe2882476d

Is that the right link?

NomadicGray

seannash wrote: »

Is that the right link?

It was not. Thank you for being competent in my stead.

* strange, it changes after posting but anyways, its searchable and i put in a video there instead

Further, and i think most here know anyways, a "leaked" item is often leaked on purpose

TXPTGR1

TXPTGR1 wrote: »

It seriously worries me that I might be sharing roads /breathing space with people who actually believe in those TA charts-total droolers

I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone can belive in that analysis. Its a hugely complex irrational system based on which way the wind blows for millions of people. It doesn't follow any pattern.

seannash

Deleted User wrote: »

I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone can belive in that analysis. Its a hugely complex irrational system based on which way the wind blows for millions of people. It doesn't follow any pattern.

Yeah we seem to detach from the narrative that institutions drove the price down on Sunday to buy bitcoin at low prices in order to believe that chart.


Why wouldn't they wait til the next lower dip that is predicted in that chart?
It seems we have two competing theories on whats going on.

pioneerpro

seannash wrote: »

Yeah we seem to detach from the narrative that institutions drove the price down on Sunday to buy bitcoin at low prices in order to believe that chart.

Why wouldn't they wait til the next lower dip that is predicted in that chart?
It seems we have two competing theories on whats going on.

It's not a rational market, and every 2-bit eejit with a bit of python has a badly configured trading bot set-up. There's also an awful lot of money being washed in trades I'd imagine.

Dohnjoe

seannash wrote: »

Yeah we seem to detach from the narrative that institutions drove the price down on Sunday to buy bitcoin at low prices in order to believe that chart.


Why wouldn't they wait til the next lower dip that is predicted in that chart?
It seems we have two competing theories on whats going on.

Those theories are usually complete bull****. This stuff is invented to comfort many in the crypto community because they can't accept that they are the ones selling.

"Institutions" are the latest boogeymen responsible for every dip and crash, previously it was "whales".

seannash

seannash wrote: »

Yeah we seem to detach from the narrative that institutions drove the price down on Sunday to buy bitcoin at low prices in order to believe that chart.


Why wouldn't they wait til the next lower dip that is predicted in that chart?
It seems we have two competing theories on whats going on.

Then one of the million predictions comes true thus "proving" their system works

Mellor

seannash wrote: »

Why wouldn't they wait til the next lower dip that is predicted in that chart?
It seems we have two competing theories on whats going on.

That kinda of analysis and those charts are idiotic.
But that said, if you could predict the next 6 months like that. Why they wouldn’t wait for the lower future dip should be clear.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone can belive in that analysis. Its a hugely complex irrational system based on which way the wind blows for millions of people. It doesn't follow any pattern.

It's not driven by random actions of millions of people, even though random actions of millions of people do follow the same patterns. But this is not the actions of random people but instead the actions of automated algorithms. The wyckoff distribution and accumulation patterns are seen throughout the market. There's one right now in the nasdaq. Watch prices come up slightly, dip slightly before hitting another accumulation phase.

mcriot29

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's not driven by random actions of millions of people, even though random actions of millions of people do follow the same patterns. But this is not the actions of random people but instead the actions of automated algorithms. The wyckoff distribution and accumulation patterns are seen throughout the market. There's one right now in the nasdaq. Watch prices come up slightly, dip slightly before hitting another accumulation phase.

It will go up to high 40s then drop to 20 and Lower as we enter a bear

Dohnjoe

mcriot29 wrote: »

It will go up to high 40s then drop to 20 and Lower as we enter a bear

No one really knows.

Unlike the stock market, crypto doesn't have calculable value, and it doesn't respond to logic in the same way the stock market does.

Anyone with a bit of experience can make guesses, especially looking at historical charts. There's no certainty to it, but there's an element of rough probability. Based on my experience of following this crap every day for years and years, I guessed that Monday/Tuesday there would be a rebound. Where it goes next in the short-term, I have no idea. Where it goes over the next year? I am leaning towards a bear, but that is still a guess and based on not much but experience/history

Dohnjoe

Big tug of war going on now between bulls and bears.

Potatoeman

https://youtu.be/RJjdqz_8rQg

Channel with chart reading for those interested.

pioneerpro

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Anyone with a bit of experience can make guesses, especially looking at historical charts.

Under normal, non-COVID circumstances, I guarantee there'd be lads coked off their tits in smoking areas all along South William Street hamfistedly shouting the odds about Wycoff Distribution and ****coins. And Musk probably.

Saw it in 2017. Am seeing echoes of it now.

It's basically a market signal for me when the lads who did foundation level maths start talking about TA and Graphing. TBH it strikes me as a coping mechanism for those caught on the hop. My version of the apocryphal shoe-shine boy.

It's like the lads who went off to Oz without doing a leaving cert and now spend their time posting trump memes and using phrases like 'cultural marxism' on facebook out of a need to feel some anchoring in a world that they're exposed to but don't fully understand.

cnocbui

https://shop.bewleys.com/products/bewleys-green-sencha-loose-tea

For those interested in reading tea leaves.

circadian

mcriot29 wrote: »

I reckon this chart is in the money or should I say on the lower bitcoin

I didn't realise wishful thinking was a form of TA.

That chart reckons a Moonshot by October? The general belief is that this bull market would begin to decline roughly anytime from September onwards if previous bull markets are used as reference. That has possibly been expediated but I can't see BTC hitting those lows and suddenly taking off, there'll be a good long while before the next lift off.

One thing I will note though, other currencies offer technology along with it. Bitcoin is purely a store of value while many other currencies offer blockchains for development of apps and other technologies. It's not outside the realms of possibility that these will take a run of their own while BTC trundles along until it's next big run up.

bfa1509

Dohnjoe wrote: »

No one really knows.

Unlike the stock market, crypto doesn't have calculable value, and it doesn't respond to logic in the same way the stock market does.

Not sure if "logic" is the word to use here..:pac:

HGVRHKYY

mcriot29 wrote: »

It will go up to high 40s then drop to 20 and Lower as we enter a bear

Speaking in concrete terms like this with crypto, at this point, is laughable

Phoebas

There's nothing at all wrong with technical analysis.

For example, if I see a double top where price has been rejected at a certain level a number of times, then it's not unreasonable to think that that level _may_ be rejected again. Or if I see an increase in price aligned with an increase in volume then it's not unreasonable to think that the price _may_ continue to rise. And so on.

And we know that trading algorithms and human traders use technical analysis in their trading so they become self-referencing - they work because we use them.

The problem is that humans see patterns everywhere and can't help themselves in picking the patterns that suit their own view of the world. Particularly in crypto maybe because of the lack of other data and because of its volatility, people seem willing to make the most outlandish predictions from reading the leaves charts.

Phoebas

Phoebas wrote: »

There's nothing at all wrong with technical analysis.

For example, if I see a double top where price has been rejected at a certain level a number of times, then it's not unreasonable to think that that level _may_ be rejected again. Or if I see an increase in price aligned with an increase in volume then it's not unreasonable to think that the price _may_ continue to rise. And so on.

And we know that trading algorithms and human traders use technical analysis in their trading so they become self-referencing - they work because we use them.

The problem is that humans see patterns everywhere and can't help themselves in picking the patterns that suit their own view of the world. Particularly in crypto maybe because of the lack of other data and because of its volatility, people seem willing to make the most outlandish predictions from reading the leaves charts.

It's just gambler's fallacy to me. Human's love seeing patterns like you say. Similarly human's love making erroneous connections between independent events and seeing them as patterns.

To use the simplistic overused casino analogy, it's as if black came up 10 times in a row. One person believes black must come up an 11th time to keep the streak going, while another believes that the law of averages has to kick at some point and surely red will have its turn now. Both are wrong.

With regards to it being self-referencing, that would be true if TA pointed towards one prediction and all TA'ers followed that, but that isn't the case. Many (conflicting) predictions are put forward by it so it can't be a self-fulfilling prophecy unless there is some kind of consensus.

If someone working for a professional trading firm wants to tell me they use it day-to-day, I'll be willing to listen. A few friends working in that industry tell me it's considered nonsense.

FFVII

https://www.singlelunch.com/2021/05/19/the-tether-ponzi-scheme/

Jaysus 🀔

LuckyLloyd

FFVII wrote: »

https://www.singlelunch.com/2021/05/19/the-tether-ponzi-scheme/

Jaysus 🀔

Hmm
Anyone got a good counter to this?

Graham

Deleted User wrote: »

It's just gambler's fallacy to me. Human's love seeing patterns like you say. Similarly human's love making erroneous connections between independent events and seeing them as patterns.

To use the simplistic overused casino analogy, it's as if black came up 10 times in a row. One person believes black must come up an 11th time to keep the streak going, while another believes that the law of averages has to kick at some point and surely red will have its turn now. Both are wrong.

I've heard the casino analogy dozens of times and I'm not convinced it's particularly valid.

As you rightly point out a black/red in a casino is completely chance driven so trying to spot patterns is pointless. In a market (like Crypto or shares or currencies) the outcome is driven by people and people can and do act in enough of a pattern to give a trader an edge if those patterns can be identified.

mcriot29

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Hmm
Anyone got a good counter to this?

It’s true

TXPTGR1

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Hmm
Anyone got a good counter to this?

This is good for Bitcoin 😂