Are we excited yet?

Donald Trump

Graham wrote: »

I've heard the casino analogy dozens of times and I'm not convinced it's particularly valid.

As you rightly point out a black/red in a casino is completely chance driven so trying to spot patterns is pointless. In a market (like Crypto or shares or currencies) the outcome is driven by people and people can and do act in enough of a pattern to give a trader an edge if those patterns can be identified.

There is definitely a behavioural finance aspect to it.
If you have a statistical advantage in trying to accurately guess where the money is going to be flowing to, you can make money from that. The underlying does not have to be rational or driven on any fundamental.



If that is the case then at some stage it will become a game of "pass-the-parcel". You won't want to be holding it when the music stops though. It will work until it doesn't anymore.

LuckyLloyd

mcriot29 wrote: »

It’s true

Right
Sell sell sell, and keep selling until your position is 0

Donald Trump

Deleted User wrote: »

It's just gambler's fallacy to me. Human's love seeing patterns like you say. Similarly human's love making erroneous connections between independent events and seeing them as patterns.

To use the simplistic overused casino analogy, it's as if black came up 10 times in a row. One person believes black must come up an 11th time to keep the streak going, while another believes that the law of averages has to kick at some point and surely red will have its turn now. Both are wrong.

With regards to it being self-referencing, that would be true if TA pointed towards one prediction and all TA'ers followed that, but that isn't the case. Many (conflicting) predictions are put forward by it so it can't be a self-fulfilling prophecy unless there is some kind of consensus.

If someone working for a professional trading firm wants to tell me they use it day-to-day, I'll be willing to listen. A few friends working in that industry tell me it's considered nonsense.

TA is considered nonsense if you believe in efficient markets. That is what most textbooks teach.


But some people do use it. I remember doing a small ML example for my own learning a few years ago on some technical indicators. Just on the direction of every movement - up or down. Not the magnitude. After being trained, the out-of-sample performed something like 53% correct. It was only a small "advantage". I never used it. It was only for my own curiosity.


Charts and patterns are however, by definition, backward looking.

pioneerpro

Donald Trump wrote: »

I remember doing a small ML example for my own learning a few years ago on some technical indicators.

It all works handy enough - basic correlation through incentivisation.

However when you deploy your model and become statistically non-negligible, then you get front-run by HFTs or stop-loss raided or similar.

ADA is on a charge once again, why didn't I buy more

SortingYouOut

Fair jump across the board overnight.

SortingYouOut

Badly fukt wrote: »

ADA is on a charge once again, why didn't I buy more

I made a small bit on Matic yesterday and sold at $1.80ish thinking it would dip again. Woke up this morning to it in the $2.20s:o

Pussyhands

Haven't been keeping up, so what's the general state of the market now?

I've been getting alerts from coinbase, ETH up X% etc so seems volatile the last few days.

elbyrneo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

ADA is on a charge once again, why didn't I buy more

In fairness nearly everything is on a charge, nearly all greens on the board overnight.

I'm lucky to have clawed back most of last week's losses but still watching closely for the next round of dips.

Think next few days is going to be a rollercoaster

Graham

Graham wrote: »

I've heard the casino analogy dozens of times and I'm not convinced it's particularly valid.

As you rightly point out a black/red in a casino is completely chance driven so trying to spot patterns is pointless. In a market (like Crypto or shares or currencies) the outcome is driven by people and people can and do act in enough of a pattern to give a trader an edge if those patterns can be identified.

It's a bit of strawman in fairness. It's predicated on that roulette is the same as predicting future price charts based on historical price charts without taking anything else into account. This is obviously a true statement to me.

Antares35

elbyrneo wrote: »

In fairness nearly everything is on a charge, nearly all greens on the board overnight.

I'm lucky to have clawed back most of last week's losses but still watching closely for the next round of dips.

Think next few days is going to be a rollercoaster

Same

Jackben75

FFVII wrote: »

https://www.singlelunch.com/2021/05/19/the-tether-ponzi-scheme/

Jaysus ��

known since Tether was upon us, generally accepted, however what do you think Fiat is? The US are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow :pac:

Tether won't crash.....

KilOit

Good time to sell a bit if you were shaken by recent drop. Hope no one listened to donald/paddy etc. They give terrible advice and are full blown on their soapbox when market is in serious red, they haven't a clue. Never sell when market dumps that much, it generally rebounds even if it goes down again.

SCOL

I new to this and set up a Binance account been watching the market and on the crash last week I bought ETH want to sell now
my question is, if I sell now can I get them to hold my USD until I'm ready to go again ? or do I have to put it back into FIAT and
cash out ?

nathan99

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Hmm
Anyone got a good counter to this?

let me preface this i know nothing

But i skimmed through the court documents from the NY AG against tether, from what i can gather, Tether are arguing they didn't have 1 USD to 1 Tether because they function as a fractional reserve.
I.e there investments/loans covers anything that isnt covered by 1 USD. (as this is what banks do)

The Judge was saying this a highly regulatory matter and not clear on what to Tether is allowed to do.

This seems like a case that could drag on for years to determine an outcome.

What a few of the critics are saying as stated in the article. is that Tether were just printing money all over the place without anything in the bank. and inflating the prices of crypto. ( Note the critics arguments are really only Tether in 2017 not so much now)

I have not seen any prominent in crypto substantiate these claims or any one from the mainstream media substantiate them either. So for now me personally it its not overly concerning at the moment. but it would be nice to get some clarity from some experts on the industry.

Unearthly

SCOL wrote: »

I new to this and set up a Binance account been watching the market and on the crash last week I bought ETH want to sell now
my question is, if I sell now can I get them to hold my USD until I'm ready to go again ? or do I have to put it back into FIAT and
cash out ?

You can sell in Tether or Euro and keep it on your balance to use again. Just be mindful of tax obligations

SCOL

Unearthly wrote: »

You can sell in Tether or Euro and keep it on your balance to use again. Just be mindful of tax obligations

I'm "assuming" profits are taxed only if I take them out ??? also I'm thinking I can keep going and at the end of the year take out something if I have any profit
and just pay the tax on it ???

I really don't have a clue what I'm doing at the moment, I think I just got lucky and made something on my first investment, it only small at the moment but I hope to build on it.

Is there any courses about to learn more, I've been watching a lot on youtube.

Donald Trump

KilOit wrote: »

Good time to sell a bit if you were shaken by recent drop. Hope no one listened to donald/paddy etc. They give terrible advice and are full blown on their soapbox when market is in serious red, they haven't a clue. Never sell when market dumps that much, it generally rebounds even if it goes down again.

Point out the bad advice I gave or shut up whinging and moaning and feeling sorry for yourself

Unearthly

SCOL wrote: »

I'm "assuming" profits are taxed only if I take them out ??? also I'm thinking I can keep going and at the end of the year take out something if I have any profit
and just pay the tax on it ???

I really don't have a clue what I'm doing at the moment, I think I just got lucky and made something on my first investment, it only small at the moment but I hope to build on it.

Is there any courses about to learn more, I've been watching a lot on youtube.

Yes once you dispose of it (that includes swapping it for another crypto) it triggers capital gains tax. You can hold it for as long as you like and only have to pay tax once you dispose and have some gains

KilOit

Donald Trump wrote: »

Point out the bad advice I gave or shut up whinging and moaning and feeling sorry for yourself

Hit a nerve? Haha.

Donald Trump

KilOit wrote: »

Hit a nerve? Haha.

You see. You can't point to anything I said. I haven't made that many posts on this forum. Won't take you long to go through them to find anything if it is there.


No point crying and looking for others to blame.

KilOit

Donald Trump wrote: »

No point crying and looking for others to blame.

This is hilarious! I'm crying now?
Think you need to take a step back, take a breather.

Graham

KilOit wrote: »

Good time to sell a bit if you were shaken by recent drop.

Sold a bit this morning when BTC jumped North of 40k just to clear the last bit of leverage I had left from Sunday.

Happy enough to sit back and watch for a few hours/days now to see where things are heading before making another move.

Donald Trump

KilOit wrote: »

This is hilarious! I'm crying now?
Think you need to take a step back, take a breather.

As I said, point to it or shut up. You can't point to it so will try to deflect and slink off.



But least we know you won't do it again. You'll be shutting up. Mission accomplished

KilOit

Donald Trump wrote: »

But least we know you won't do it again. You'll be shutting up. Mission accomplished

Jesus, who let crazy on the Internet :rolleyes:

Donald Trump

KilOit wrote: »

Jesus, who let crazy on the Internet :rolleyes:

Keep deflecting all you like. I'll just keeping highlighting you haven't pointed to any evidence for your claim about me giving bad advice.



C'mon, stop bitching and back it up with the evidence. If you want to keep going down this road it's fine with me.

Rob2D

There'll be nobody going down any road. Cool it.

You guys go outside and get an ice cream for a while or something.

KilOit

Rob2D wrote: »

There'll be nobody going down any road. Cool it.

You guys go outside and get an ice cream for a while or something.

Suckit

I have been expecting at least one other big dip after the last week. I thought maybe down to €22k before coming back.
Now I am not so sure and I'm half out.
Easy back in though, not too worried about that.

Just wondering if anyone had the same expectations and how they feel now? I'm still thinking there could be another dip, but the last 16ish hours in particular, things look a lot more stable than they have, and I'm less convinced.

Whelo79

Suckit wrote: »

I have been expecting at least one other big dip after the last week. I thought maybe down to €22k before coming back.
Now I am not so sure and I'm half out.
Easy back in though, not too worried about that.

Just wondering if anyone had the same expectations and how they feel now? I'm still thinking there could be another dip, but the last 16ish hours in particular, things look a lot more stable than they have, and I'm less convinced.

Why were you expecting $22k? Or were you just hoping for $22k?