The Irish protocol.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118119920#Comment_118119920

Not the slightest chance of ni going with roi time zone if they deviated from Uk. Is that what you are implying??

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120039#Comment_118120039

No where does that say that the island of Ireland is a nation. The roi government is simply promising to allow anyone born in the ni part of the Uk to take up an offer to be part of the Irish nation.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120253#Comment_118120253

Not a bit interested in Unionists having digs at one another, my point was the fight is on for the hearts and minds of Unionists and Bryson's call for Unionism to unite seems to howling at moon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120296#Comment_118120296

Splitting hairs there really,to my eyes its acknowledging the island as a nation anyway...but each to their own

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120296#Comment_118120296

Nation meaning:

"a large body of people united by common descent, history, culture, or language, inhabiting a particular country or territory"

By saying anyone from Ireland is part of the irish nation excepts that Ireland is the Irish nations territory. But it was pretty much redundant as even if it had not said it, it is still factual. The GFA brings attention to this fact as it also states there will be no hard borders on Ireland splitting the nation.

Btw a Nation does mean you have your own sovereign country/territory. The English are also a nation of people coming from England but aren't sovereign.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118120364#Comment_118120364

I think you are arguing my point. Uk is a sovereign nation and roi is a nation. I also would concede that Irish people outside the country of Ireland, whether in ni or elsewhere could be referred to as people of the Irish nation. But that is really a decision for roi who they want to include.

could you also point out the part of the gfa which “states there will be no hard borders on Ireland splitting the nation.”?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118114699#Comment_118114699

Don’t conflate Protestant/catholic or even unionist voter / nationalist voter with those who support ni position in Uk and those who want a Ui.

yet another poll launched today confirming yet again that there is little interest in a Ui

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newsletter.co.uk/news/people/two-thirds-of-ni-voters-support-remaining-in-uk-but-health-a-main-priority-survey-3445849%3famp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121397#Comment_118121397

The gfa deosnt permit NI to leave the EU either and has no provision for allowing such action (and majority there voted remain)

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121397#Comment_118121397

The Irish nation of people come from Ireland. The Irish nation therefore straddles both the ROI and part of the UK. The patron Saint of the Irish nation is St.Patrick etc. When I or most people who say they're Irish they referring to the fact they are part of this nation of people that come from all of Ireland.

The ROI by the GFA is sovereignty that only has jurisdiction over the 26 counties and had to withdraw it territory claim over all of Ireland. However the GFA still brings attention to the fact the Irish nation of people come from all of Ireland.

From the GFA regarding no hard border

• the reduction of the numbers and role of the Armed Forces deployed in Northern Ireland to levels compatible with a normal peaceful society;
• the removal of security installations;
• the removal of emergency powers in Northern Ireland; and
• other measures appropriate to and compatible with a normal peaceful society.”

It is inferred the reasson not to have a hard border on Ireland was not to split the Irish nation.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121397#Comment_118121397

The UK's a state. Whether you regard the people of the UK as constituting a nation, or several nations, is a matter of debate and, to some extent, a matter of controversy (and not just in NI; ask them in Scotland whether the Scots are a nation, or just a subset of a UK nation). Precisely because it's a matter of controversy touching on national identity, any consideration of issues in Northern Ireland which requires people to commit to one view or the other on this question is pretty certainly going nowhere. We have to accommodate divergent views on this.

The GFA does this by recognising both views and affirming their validity. It's true that, as already pointed out, the GFA acknowledges the Irish government's undertaking (since fulfilled) to amend the Constitution to affirm "the entitlement and birthright of every person born in the island of Ireland . . . to be part of the Irish nation". But it also directly affirms "the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both, as they may so choose". So NI people have a dual birthright - to Irishness and to Britishness. Not only that, but the GFA affirms that these birthrights are fully compatible with one another - you can be Irish and British.

How does the question of nation map onto the question of statehood? The fundamental principle of political nationalism (not in the sense of Irish nationalism, and not in the sense of fascism-masquerading-as-nationalism, but in the sense of classic political nationalism) is that a nation is entitled to self-determination and is the appropriate community to erect a state for its self-government. That's a bit of a problem, because how can NI be a part of a unified Irish state with the rest of the Irish nation, and also part of a unified British state embracing the rest of the British nation? Any kind of joint sovereignty/condominium/joint authority would be more likely to effectively make it part of neither, rather than part of both.

The GFA attempts to square this circle (a) by affirming NI's right to make a collective choice to be part of either the Irish or the British state, as a majority wishes, and (b) to provide a structure for government within NI which seeks to afford equal recognition, equal respect, equal esteem to both national identities.

We all know the problem with Brexit, or at least with hard Brexit. The offence/imposition/burden/whatever you want on the minority community of not being within the state corresponding to their national identity was minimised by the fact of both states being EU members. This was the context within which the GFA was negotiated, and was part of what made the GFA compromises an acceptable, workable solution. Hard Brexit therefore undermines the GFA. It makes little difference whether it is undermined through ignorance or through malice - either way, it's done.

The result is that (at least) one community in NI must now find that the GFA settlement works less satisfactorily for them than it did before.

This is wholly the fault of the British government and of the unconstrained unilateral choices which it has made, and still makes. Nobody in Northern Ireland is to blame for it (except those who supported the British government making those choices). Nobody in Ireland is to blame for it. Nobody in the EU is to blame for it.

The NI Protocol, it seems to me, is the least bad solution to the problem thus created. Better solutions are obviously possible, but they are ruled out by the position and attitudes of the British government. If we take the British government's positions as a parameter within which the problem must be addressed, then I don't see a better viable way of addressing it than the NI Protocol.

If British people in NI are unhappy about the Protocol, they don't need to persuade me of that. I completely understand that they are unhappy, and why they are unhappy. But there's only two ways to address their unhappiness.

1. Persuade the British government to alter its Brexit position. The best opportunities for doing this were, I think, squandered. Such is the disregard and disdain that the current British government feels for the people of NI, getting them to change their Brexit stance now for NI's benefit is unlikely. So this is perhaps more of a theoretical option than a practically available one. Still, I wouldn't discourage anyone from trying.
2. Prove me wrong, and devise a practical solution with the parameters set by the British government's position that improves the lot of the British people of NI without making matters worse for the Irish people of NI than they already are.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121415#Comment_118121415

My question again

could you also point out the part of the gfa which “states there will be no hard borders on Ireland splitting the nation.”?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121426#Comment_118121426

You are ducking the question here it is again

could you also point out the part of the gfa which “states there will be no hard borders on Ireland splitting the nation.”?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121434#Comment_118121434

I agree with most of this but it is nonsense to suggest that all the responsibility lies with the British government.

firstly it was the British people and people who reside in the Uk who decided they wanted brexit.

whilst I did not vote for brexit, what I absolutely don’t want is some sort of worse than either in or out, where uk abide by the rules but have no control over them - why have brexit then?

can you describe what sort of better solution you are talking about that, with some integrity, gives the people of the Uk what they voted for?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121407#Comment_118121407

I actually find it both interesting and reassuring that even with all the crap of the last few years, the middle ground people in NI, P & RC, remain wedded to the Uk. I can guess the reasons for this but I am interested what you guys think. Obviously they are actually wedded more to the Uk than either ‘the Irish nation’ or the EU. Interesting 🧐

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121506#Comment_118121506

• the reduction of the numbers and role of the Armed Forces deployed in Northern Ireland to levels compatible with a normal peaceful society;
• the removal of security installations;
• the removal of emergency powers in Northern Ireland; and
• other measures appropriate to and compatible with a normal peaceful society.”

That has been inferred to meaning no hard border in Ireland. Hence why installing a hard border is seen as breaking the GFA

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121526#Comment_118121526

It was the British government who decided to conduct the referendum in the first place.

It was also the British government who decided to conduct it on a non-binding basis (so that illegalities couldn't be challenged in the courts) but also decided that, despite not being bound by the outcome, they would regard themselves as bound by the simple majority outcome without regard to the wishes and interests of the constituent parts of the UK.

It was also the British government that decided, well after the referendum, that "Brexit" would mean a hard Brexit that would require a border on one side of NI or the other.

And there lies the answer to your question. The UK could have chosen, with complete integrity, to pursue a form of Brexit that would not require a hard border on any side of Northern Ireland. That would give the people of the UK what they voted for, since they never voted - nor were they allowed to vote - for any particular model of Brexit in preference to any other.

In the 2016 referendum - as no doubt you recall - the question on the ballot paper was:

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

The permitted responses (tick one only!) were:

1) Remain a member of the European Union

2) Leave the European Union

Given the result of the referendum, any course of action which led to the UK no longer being listed on the Wikipedia page entitled "List of Member States of the European Union" would discharge the mandate conferred the referendum. So they could easily have adopted "mustn't result in a hard border on either side of NI" as a criterion in framing the form of Brexit they pursued, and sought e.g. a Norway-style relationship with the EU, customs union membership, things of that kind.

The referendum result did not mandate a form of Brexit that would result in an NI border over any other form. If the UK had wanted a mandate for such a Brexit, they could of course have sought one, either by framing the 2016 question more specifically, or by conducting a second referendum once they had worked out what it was they wanted. (As I recall that was suggested to them quite forcefully, but they seemed very averse to the idea.)

(The closest they ever came to a seeking or getting mandate for a particular form of Brexit was in 2019, when the Tory party campaigned in the general election on a manifesto of implementing the Withdrawal Agreement (inc NI Protocol) that they had just negotiated. And of course they got an 80-seat majority in that election, which in UK terms is considered a pretty resounding mandate to implement the manifesto of the lucky winner. So if it's a question of 'giving the UK people what they voted for", well, the NI Protocol, as negotiated and signed, is part of that package. So maybe this "give the people the Brexit they voted for" argument is one that people who are unhappy about the Protocol should think twice before advancing. Just sayin'.)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121407#Comment_118121407

There is no interest if there is a 'poll tomorrow'.

The type of poll Unionists and The Newsletter love.

The most interesting finding in that poll is the one about the here and now, and priorities for the people and The Protocol simply isn't one.

So will the Newsletter reveal that Unionist political leaders are lying through their teeth about the angst the Protocol is causing and challenge them? Will it heck.

Snugbugrug28

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121840#Comment_118121840

Interestingly that poll said that desire to remain in the UK doesnt equate to desire to vote unionist. I take that as a sign that NI, in the UK but with the protocol is a nice place to be and the protocol does not lead to a UI. Unionists are losing their shirts over something that really isn't an issue for their constitutional preferences

Snugbugrug28

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121590#Comment_118121590

I kinda think that the election which gave Boris an enormous majority was an implicit backing of his approach by the British people... unfortunately

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121879#Comment_118121879

What is clear is that Unionist politicians and belligerent unionists (not ordinary unionists) are playing the Pied Piper tune once again and leading their people up a hill without their permission, and to a place they clearly do not want to go. There is the distinct possibility that they lose the room altogether.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121407#Comment_118121407

Indeed. From that poll, more than 20% of the population votes for parties which are neither unionist nor nationalist, but their votes would be up for grabs in a border poll. So the people who say that they would vote to remain in the UK are not the same people who would say they would vote for a unionist party. And similarly for people who would vote for a United Ireland/a nationalist party. It could well be that the votes on both sides of this question, in a border poll, would exceed the votes for parties aligned with the relevant side.

And there are also people who vote for a party aligned with one view, but would vote the other way in border poll. From this survey, 3.7% of DUP voters would vote for a United Ireland. No TUV voters say they would vote for a United Ireland, but 2.2% of them say that, while they would vote in a border poll, they don't know which way they would vote. The mind boggles a bit.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121503#Comment_118121503

Could you point out,where it allows it/leaving the eu?

Since yous are speaking in favour of changing it?

Bit like going to school & asking teacher to do your homework there mate

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121979#Comment_118121979

It's clear from the poll IMO that the way the question is phrased is important. 'If there was a border poll tomorrow'.

Jamie Bryson is rubbishing this poll because he doesn't like the answer on the Protocol which is 100 times more straightforward.

I wouldn't be in favour of a border poll tomorrow either if answering honestly. A border poll should only happen at least 2 years after it is called because then you will get a clear plan/proposal from Dublin. Then the craic will begin, as they say, and you can pay credence to polls of peoples opinions.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122019#Comment_118122019

It's a fair point.

"If there was a poll/election tomorrow . . ." is a standard way of prhasing these questions in surveys of this kind. It makes sense because it avoids the subject answering on the basis of various things that he might hope/expect/fear will happen in the future that would affect his vote. Plus when the actual results of an election or referendum don't correspond to the opinion poll, the pollsters can refute the charge of inaccuracy by pointing to this; the actual vote wasn't the day after the opinion poll.

Plus, particularly with respect to something like a border poll, the qualification makes sense. The political context would have to change signficantly before there would be a border poll in NI, and of course how people might vote would be affected by the new context, which right now we can only speculate about. Plus there'd be a fairly lengthy lead-in and campaign before a border poll, and there aren't a lot of precedents which would allow us to predict how that might unfold, what events might occur, and how public opinion and voting intention would be affected.

So surveys about how people would vote in a border poll are I think more than usually rubbery. The survey results are significant, and the trend in survey results over time is even more significant. But as predictors of the result of the actual border poll, I think they're of limited value.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122097#Comment_118122097

The problem asking the question that way is that it depends on what day you ask it:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/narrow-majority-of-ni-voters-support-remaining-in-uk-poll-1.4542944

Seth Brundle

Like downcow has done, straw polls can be carried out quickly and easily. Below Alastair Campbell tells us the results of one he did...

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1456358162706096131

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1456358165327532033

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1456358167282167810

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1456358169056321539

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121879#Comment_118121879

This was always the case. That’s why I disagree with those who get excited when nationalist parties increase their vote.

the other thing which is impossible to estimate - it it easy to say in a poll that you want a Ui if that’s what your heart says. If there was ever the reality starting at people their heads would take over. My guesstimate is that in an actual Ui poll there wouldn’t be 25% prepared to take the risk

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122006#Comment_118122006

It doesn’t. It exactly like a hard border. The gfa is silent on it.

that’s like teacher point out how silly you are being

Snugbugrug28

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118122843#Comment_118122843

As the debate goes on and on I become more convinced that primary objective of DUP/TUV is to reinstall a hard border. Violence is of no concern to them once it can be blamed on Sinn Fein.

To your point about whether people would actually vote for a UI on the day, you're right, it might actually reduce but equally it might actually go up in number. Some people who would rather be in the UK might get a case of the old 'maybe it's now or never'... especially if unionists are still trying sabotage the province for their nefarious aims.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118121840#Comment_118121840

The problem for you francie is that is what you have been saying for years. Two years you said the same - if only they were asking about a poll in two years time. So this is that poll you said would be scary for unionists 😂