The Irish protocol.

Peregrinus

Given that this thread was originally opened back in the late middle ages to discuss the court challenge against the protocol taken by Ben Habib and others, it's worth noting that the appeal against the High Court ruling upholding the Protocol was listed for hearing in the Court of Appeal on Monday, yesterday. However at the suggestion of the judges the hearing has been adjourned, on the basis that some of the arguments either side might make could be superseded by political developments expected this week.

The case will be listed again next Monday, not for hearing but for fixing a date for hearing, which is now likely to be in early November.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118007470#Comment_118007470

Indeed. Strange decision. I didn’t think the court would be influenced by the new protocol negotiations.

downcow

So I know some posters desperate desire to not be proven wrong on their ‘easements’ means they will talk in riddles for the next couple of days. But I am curious what people think the outcome of these negotiations will be.

im never shy to be open. So I’ll have a stab.

protocol needs to change but Eu need to look like they haven’t moved.

I reckon a trusted trader scheme covering stuff that is no genuine risk (common sense). And for most ‘risk’ stuff a declaration situation. ie bit like ‘nothing to declare’ for those not carrying risk stuff. Simple and sorted!

eu court. Some tiny little responsibility for them as an absolute last resort with enough options before that that it won’t be needed. Eu can still say they have ultimate authority but no one will care.

just to scupper the inevitable nonsense that this was always available. Posters here said easements would come if the Uk pull there horns in - think we can all agree Uk didn’t do that.

over to you guys?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118007496#Comment_118007496

I don't think that the court will be, but I think the court's point is that one or other of the parties might be. Purely hypothetically, for instance, if the UK were to announce that it is repudiating the protocol, the appellants might not feel the need to pursue their appeal. Or, the UK government might adopt a position in relation to the Protocol which lead it to alter the arguments that it puts to the court.

The court isn't suggesting that these things will or should happen; just that they don't want to waste two days of court time dealing with arguments that, a few days later, are redundant, or irrelevant, or superseded by events, or no longer reflect the position that one or both of the parties wishes to take.

At least, that's my reading of it.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118007522#Comment_118007522

Frost is already on the record saying how he sees NI doing ok and unaffected from the damage being seen in GB currently as a problem that he will tackle. You are celebrating that London using NI as a pawn whilst they attempt to do a huge amount of damage to the NI economy. Are you sure that you're not a DUP supporter?

As for your interpretation of what posters said previously, you're mistaken. The claims by posters including myself has always been that the protocol will remain unchanged. Things can be ironed out between the two sides but all within the parameters of the NIP. Any other claims you think have been made you can display here and we can see what you mean.

pjohnson

Wait has downcow tried to claim he ISNT a DUP diehard?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118007522#Comment_118007522

The Protocol can't change without an amendment to the treaty. It's not within the competence of the Joint Committee to negotiate, much less agree, an amendment to the treaty. Nor is it within the competence of the Commission; that can only be done by the Council with, eventually, the unanimous assent of the Member States. That's not going to happen, obviously; the UK has long since burned the political capital it would need to secure that kind of outcome.

So, if there's an agreement, it will be agreed changes to the implementation of the Protocol which the UK will spin, for the benefit of the more slow-witted Brexiters, as changes to the Protocol.

Here, the UK may have painted itself into a bit of a corner. Frost has very deliberately moved on from complaining about the the implementation of the Protocol; he says, in as many words, the implementation is not the core problem; the core problem is the Protocol itself. And he points to the jurisdiction of the ECJ as an instance of this.

The present negotiations cannot possibly produce an outcome which amends the protocol to eliminate the jurisdiction of the ECJ, or aments it in any other way. So if there is to be an agreement, Frost may have to climb down. Or, the UK may have to climb down, and part of that process may involve Frost being promoted to a position of responsibility for the organisation of the Prime Minister's sock drawer, or something of the kind.

The other possibility is that the UK government and/or Frost will be brazen about it, and will announce that whatever they do agree has the effect of removing the jurisdiction of the ECJ. Frost did, after all, announce exactly that when he first negotiated the Withdrawal Agreement. He has since discovered he was wrong. But who is to say that he may not yet discover that, actually, he was right all along? Brexiters are a credulous and biddable bunch; they believe what they are told to believe and they do not expect their leaders to display either honesty or consistency. So the government might get away with this.

The real question is whether whatever is agreed after the UK's performative psychosis will be more generous to the UK than what the UK could have secured if it had skipped the performance and simply sought agreement in the first place? That's a historical what-if which is by definition unanswerable; we'll never really know for sure, since the UK didn't simply seek agreement in the first place.

But we can confidently predict this; Brexiters will claim that it is more generous to the UK. We know they will claim this because they always do. But we also know that what today they hail as a successful outcome, a triumph of British resolve secured by the UK government's skill and tenacity, tomorrow they will denounce as an outrage, a disgraceful oppression of the British people imposed by the evil eurocrats in conspiracy with remainer traitors in the Westminster elite. So the claim that steely resolve has worked once again for the UK is not usually persisted in even by those who advance it. But they continue to assert that it will work the next time. Tomorrow will always be different.

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118007522#Comment_118007522

You (as in, the UK) don't get to propose a "trusted" trader scheme as an alternative to ripping up an entire agreement that you willingly negotiated and triumphantly signed.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118007522#Comment_118007522

IMO the NI protocol idea, NI as some special "zone" between the EU/UK economies, is in its death throes now (UK govt. in the study standing over it with the candlestick behind its back whistling?). So I think the remaining "negotiations" about it will prove to be a pointless charade that just has to be seen through to conclusion.

Good luck to us all as there could be some choppy waters ahead.

AdrianG08

The DUP know the protocol won't be changed. They know the tories will shaft them, we might laugh at their loyalty but they are not stupid. The DUP are middlemen nothing more, nothing less between the UK government and hardline unionists up north. Its a dance pretty much. A minority of hardliners speak the loudest up there.

Donaldson took over from Poots how long ago now? And what has changed? His rhetoric is more articulate maybe? The likes of Jim Allister raises the issue every day that the DUP has literally still done nothing, all the promises to collapse the assembly if the protocol isn't removed. Its all just a merry dance. DUP lifers making a career out of trying to say the right thing in case their voter base don't change to TUV for instance.

They have been a shambles the last 10 years but I can actually see the UUP maybe doing better. They obviously also want the protocol dropped but they are doing it in a softer way, trying to be more inclusive etc... siege mentality doesn't make for good optics and its now up to the middle ground/more moderate voices to start taking control up there, running the country (in whatever guise, united ireland/UK) for their people on issues that actually matter.

Unionism is doomed in my opinion, both idealogically and economically. And I am not someone who goes to bed every night dreaming of a 32 country reunification. The more educated people become they invariably become slightly more liberal, therefore the likes of loyalist activists groups in disadvantaged areas who seem to be the loudest voices up north (along with Sinn Fein) don't want their people to educate themselves, the message is simply no surrender.

The game is really up when mainland Britain are blatantly trying to wash their hands of the region, its as clear as day despite all the grandstanding and refusal of Unionists to direct their ire towards who really shafted them.

ittakestwo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118007522#Comment_118007522

Have you ever watched the program Nothing to Delclare? It involves been checked out by German Shepherds at airports and having your bag searched. The program shows very much a hard border.

Back to this problem of something is legal in GB but illegal in the EU. How do you stop it entering the EU via the North if there is no checks? Still no solution.

FrancieBrady

Frost doing the EU Comedy circuit today. 😁

"We always sign treaties in good faith and intend to implement them."

A nation's reputation on the world stage in tatters.

downcow

So nobody going to declare their hand 😂 I thought so much.

ill wait for you all to tell me ‘ah but those were the easements we were meaning’ whatever comes out of this.

maybe another way to put it up to you. Do you believe what I paint will happen? That’s a fairly simple question.

downcow

https://mobile.twitter.com/spectator/status/1447991397001334784

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010683#Comment_118010683

Here's what will happen:

The UK will put the gun to it's own head and thrash the Protocol OR they will moan and knash their ever blunting teeth some more and accept the easements that will be announced tomorrow and the Protocol will stay.

downcow

the Project is way ahead of my expectations at this point.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/12/coveney-has-cheek-accusing-britain-risking-breakdown-relations/

Junkyard Tom

Unionists revelling in the debasement, and possible economic collapse, of the country they swear allegiance to all because they're masturbating at the thought of poking thier neighbours in the eye.

Keep going.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010691#Comment_118010691

So yet again you appear to be celebrating attempts to harm NI. I just can't understand that self-destructive mindset.

downcow

So I might watch rte tonight to see what you guys are thinking on protocol. Any advice on programmes to watch or is it just the news?

Suckler

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010717#Comment_118010717

It's easy to understand; (self declared) getting one over on "themuns" (albeit strangers on the internet) with no cognisance of the harm that could/will be visited upon NI required; sure Westminster will foot the bill.

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010717#Comment_118010717

It's the hardcore unionist way sadly.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010692#Comment_118010692

stop ducking the question. What ‘easements’ do you think will happen???

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010705#Comment_118010705

Why did Lord Frost go to Lisbon to make the speech do you think Downcow ? Maybe a cryptic message somewhere in that.🤣🤣🤣

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010508#Comment_118010508

Who would sign a treaty with the UK if they don't implement what they signed in good faith?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010820#Comment_118010820

Don’t know. It’s gone right over my head. Maybe he asked his driver to take him to Lisburn and he misheard him.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010819#Comment_118010819

The ones offered tomorrow. And maybe some more before the negotiations end.

Frost is talking to the home crowd in Lisbon downcow, and despite the fighting 'we might or we could' talk, the UK are still on the hook to either collapse the Protocol (which they could have done from day one) or comply and implement it.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010877#Comment_118010877

Still ducking francie.

‘I told you so’ will have zero credibility tomorrow- but I’m quite sure you’ll say it anyhow.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010918#Comment_118010918

The Protocol won't be going anywhere tomorrow downcow.

igCorcaigh

It's in an awful bind, we are in. But a bind made by, not just Brexit, but the GFA too. The GFA found the fudge, the middle way, out of the crisis of identity. Can we show the same creativity and flexibility that we used to create the GFA, to get us out of this bind too?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118010989#Comment_118010989

The Protocol. That was perfectly in line with the GFA.

That's why it won't be scrapped. It will be the UK putting the gun to theirs's and Unionists heads if they scrap it, without a workable alternative.