Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031918#Comment_118031918

yea we re stuck in a very dangerous game, if there is a massive default in private debt, it has the potential to destabilise global markets yet again.

its gonna take a while for supply to come onstream, so i cant see this happening anytime soon, we also have the rapidly rising materials cost to deal with, and i have a funny feeling, the state may have to also intervene here to. i have a funny feeling there are actually many canaries lurking around the place, some we dont even see yet, theres a lot of worrying stuff lurking around the place, and the electorate aint getting any happier in all of this!

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031918#Comment_118031918

A mate of mine rents his 3 bed semi for e1200 a month, his tenant works n pays e100 a month n hap pay the rest. The tenants 2 kids stay over at the weekend. There'll be no drop in demand for social housing as it is too attractive now. A days wages pays for his housing for the month.

I see in the paper today single workers on 25-45k are e2 a week better off in the budget while rents and commuting costs are skyrocketing. The journalist called this bracket future emigrants, it's hard to disagree with him.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032187#Comment_118032187

i.e. property and land speculation has failed, and government policies encouraging to do so, are also continually failing

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032187#Comment_118032187

I would see that as private accommodation being heavily subsidized by the state as opposed to social housing which would remove people from the private sector and lower rents

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032290#Comment_118032290

It is, but to get HAP you have to go on the social housing list, which presumably is what the above poster is referring to. At this point I don't know how you'd even really unwind HAP. Feels like it's done a lot more harm than good overall, but so many people have become reliant on it that if it was to end, it would really pull the rug out from under a lot of people.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032737#Comment_118032737

I agree you can't pull the rug out but the only way it will change is by providing social/affordable housing and gradually unwinding the situation.

Roberto_gas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031918#Comment_118031918

Inflation and rising interest rates are one to watch out !

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032187#Comment_118032187

Do we need 2 - 3 bed houses for a 4 person family assuming the 2 kids stay with the tenants ex parner during the week

It would seem odd that we have homeless families when others have 2 with at least one almost completely state subsidised

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118034778#Comment_118034778

Personally, I think a lot of the reason that things like HAP have gone this far is because of the political backlash to homeless families. The quickest band-aid fix to that problem was to just give loads of people more money to spend on rent so they wouldn't be homeless anymore. I don't think it's that odd at all tbh with the way things have worked out. Possibly this tenant was one of those previous homeless families. Alternatively he was on HAP before all of this, but they aren't going to take it away now or he'll potentially be back onto the list of of homeless. Nobody ever really gets removed from housing lists for this reason.

Amadan Dubh

Populism will continue to rise in Ireland, as it has done in other countries. The BoE paper above can be applied to the Irish situation and, as mentioned before by people, the housing crisis is not unique to Ireland and is impacting many countries. The same conditions that are causing similar housing crises in other countries are impacting the Irish housing market. The corollary to this is that conditions which lead to a decline in housing markets in other countries could similarly lead to a decline in the Irish housing market.

But I think populism will grow before anything too dramatic happens in the global economy and housing market, with the ECB recently announcing that it is looking to justify further QE beyond covid, even with no crisis. This means the situation will get worse before it gets better and, as in other countries, Irish people will start to vote with their feet on these issues.

It can only be wild speculation as to where our populism leads but even just taking Sinn Féin seriously as a government party was unheard of up until very recently, on the policy section of their website, they have no mention of any pro-business policies. That would mark a dramatic shift in Ireland's approach to the economy compared to the last few decades; having a government less open to making the country as pro-business as it has been. The political change will happen first and then the economic changes will follow; it will happen gradually and then all of a sudden, as they say.

Amadan Dubh

Dublin (county) rental ads on Daft today stands at 956.

However (to highlight the lack of affordability and dearth of supply), of the 956;

105 are 1 beds costing at least €1,800 pm.

151 are 2 beds costing at least €2,500 pm.

84 are 3 beds costing at least €3,000 pm.

It is too much effort to count the student accommodation ads and places only available on a short-term basis but for most renters there are at most only 616 realistic ads for rentals in Dublin - despite us being under pandemic restrictions and workers predominantly WFH and therefore not back in the city. The rate of decline of available rentals has slowed from a few weeks ago but it is still declining.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118035619#Comment_118035619

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118034844#Comment_118034844

You would think something has happened to make landlords stop renting their properties or something.

Ozark707

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118034844#Comment_118034844

Yes on this. I know a LL who recently was struggling to let her place. Was about to drop the AP on it. Low and behold someone who was on HAP came in and offered her what she was looking for.

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118035619#Comment_118035619

I stil don't understand the market for 1 beds at €1800+. I get many ads for these types of place online too, but I just don't know who they're really for. The only thing I can think of is things like short-term corporate rentals, but there just can't be that many of those. It's not even a case of people paying for it with HAP. A couple on HAP can, at most, rent for €900 (up to €1080 with an exception), which is well less than what these cost.

I understand the rational business case for keeping an apartment empty a few months to avoiding getting locked into a lower rate when you're in a rent-pressure-zone. But with these ones, I just don't see who is ever going to want them at that price. You'd probably need to be earning €90k+ to be able to pay that rent comfortably, and aside from the fact that very few people do earn that much, it just seems like someone on that kind of money would not want to be living in a one bedroom apartment.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118036391#Comment_118036391

I dont think as many are empty we think. I know my company has about 20 at this stage rented from Reits in the city and from our own staff.

They were expecting people back to the office and foreign contractors over a long time ago so the apartments have been empty since offices are not back yet.

I know they are only paying the ones they rented off the REITs half rent until offices are back, but they are paying the ones they rented from our own staff full whack even thought they are empty.

On the 1 beds, I thing a 1 bed is exactly the same as a 2 bed where renting is concerned for the most part. For both, it will usually be a couple renting.

With the 1 beds you get a slightly bigger living space so some people might prefer that to another small room for storage. Most 2 beds in Dublin are too small (at least for me anyway) to be sharing with other people besides your own family.

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118036638#Comment_118036638

The thing is that 1 beds are often just very short on space in general. You'd usually be looking at 50sqm or less in a 1-bed, compared to 75sqm for a 2-bed, and that smaller amount of space can be a bit cramped even for a couple if they're there long term, especially one with that kind of money to spend. A 2 bed can also work for small families much more easily. I've lived in 2-beds the past few years and have been surrounded by families (usually immigrants) with small kids in their own 2-beds. Probably not a great a long term solution for them either, but it does still mean they have some time before the kids get older to stay put.

It's also very easy to rent out the second room if you are young and single, which I had done for a few years on my previous place, which is a vastly better experience than living with 3-4 people in a bigger place imo.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118036694#Comment_118036694

Yes but you are talking about renting them not owning them, so you wouldnt be renting out the other room.

Whenever we lived in apartments we always went for the larger 1 beds. Always found the living space in a 1 bed bigger than the 2 beds we looked at. BEdrooms were usually 1 the same size as a bedroom in a 1 bed apartment, and another tiny bedroom. Only when we had aquired more belongings did we go for a 2 bed, just for a spare room to store stuff. Then when we had a baby 1 beds were defnitley out after that :)

MacronvFrugals

I knew Dublin was expensive for renters but that's fairly shocking!

Is there a point rental unaffordability will make us uncompetitive in attracting the best talent?

https://t.co/o3jVJ0JcZA?amp=1

J_1980

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118037244#Comment_118037244

Hardly surprising.

those in the bottom income and welfare have the easiest life in Europe: accommodation for a pittance and highest dole in the world.

the upper 1% are highly mobile, hence the middle pays for it.

MacronvFrugals

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118037325#Comment_118037325

My point was around the many transient workers particularly in the MNC sector, when does cost of living become untenable for them?

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118036764#Comment_118036764

No, I mean sub-letting. In my case I rented out a 2-bed for a few years and sublet the second room to cover the rental costs. When my partner and I were looking last time though, even larger 1-beds were all smaller than small 2-beds, so we went for the latter. Especially for people who are working from home now, having an extra room to work in is invaluable, it would have been much tougher in a 1-bed setup.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118036638#Comment_118036638

A corporate rent is a business expense to the business so they are paying from pre tax income so effectively the true cost is half the rent fig.

Private rental is aid from post tax income so you have to earn twice the rent pre tax to afford it post tax.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118037502#Comment_118037502

It already is. I had been hearing stories of high turnover at some MNC due to accommodation difficulties long before Covid came along.

mcsean2163

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/carriglea-marine-road-greystones-co-wicklow/4540670

not a lot in greystones anymore for €1.5 million....

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118039142#Comment_118039142

You couldn't live there as it is right on the seafront with the whole world walking at your gate all day, every day. Not a shred of privacy.

€1.4m?! Unless it could be replaced with apartments?

Is it worse than this place however? A caravan in Brittas for half a million. You'd get 20 years before it's underwater!

Screenshot_20211018_231703_com.whatsapp.jpg

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118037502#Comment_118037502

When I was reading the articles on Facebook announcing 10000 new jobs were being created in the EU earlier, obviously the main thing that stood out for me was that it said "EU" but also one article specifically said that Facebook could not confirm how many jobs would be in Dublin as Facebook has implemented a policy for EU based workers to request to work in any EU country where Facebook has an office. People talk and the cost of living being poor value here does travel among people. I think we're now at the point where the housing market will grind the economy to a halt.

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118039476#Comment_118039476

I don't see how it's particularly un-private. It looks like a normal small-town house to me.

The second one is the one that looks particularly ridiculous imo. I get that there is a premium on beachfront property, and it's finished nicely on the inside, but at the end of the day it's still a mobile home. It's also not even in a relatively handy location like Bray or Greystones. I've a relative who lives in Brittas and even living in south Dublin near the M50, it's a real trek getting out there, and there's not much in the way of a town in Brittas itself. €500k for what is most likely a small holiday home in Wicklow is huge considering what you could buy abroad for that money.

Aside from that, you'd be paying a lot to live in a place with an hilarious name like "Jack's Hole".

bleaks

Is there any websites that give an overview of new property developments in Dublin or the surrounding counties, or what's the best way of finding these, aside from being a vulture fund?

Villa05

The prize for headline of the year goes to.....

https://www.businesspost.ie/houses/plans-to-wind-down-controversial-fast-track-housing-scheme-delayed-aef471d9

Waterford whisperer were beaten to it

DataDude

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118039142#Comment_118039142

Quite surprised by that price also. Wouldn’t have much change left from €2m bringing that up to standard. And even at that you have no back garden, only a fairly public east facing front garden. Wouldn’t be for me!

Couple of really eye catching houses on that same road up closer to the Marina side. Wonder what they’d go up at!

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118040222#Comment_118040222

JP Donleavy's sister's house.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118040222#Comment_118040222

No garden and coastal erosion an issue in the area. Seems madness. I guess nice four beds with a decent garden are hard to come by...

D_s

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118039672#Comment_118039672

Best place to get aggregated property development news is the Ireland/Dublin forum on skyscrapercity

MacronvFrugals

The IMF pretty much saying changing the LTI ratios would be suicidal...

IMF: Need for caution as house prices boom in many countries including Ireland

Around the world, "the macro-prudential rules are here to stay", he said, and that it "is one of the lessons that central bankers and regulators have taken from the previous crisis: You need to be on your toes".

The IMF has said it's time to be cautious about a new global house prices boom in many countries including in Ireland, that is being fuelled by an unusual mix of increases in the costs of building materials and by mortgage rates at rock-bottom levels.

He said that although the reasons for the global housing boom prior to the financial crisis were different, that the IMF nevertheless was seeing a similar sharp increase in prices in terms of scale and its pervasiveness in countries. 

Despite the IMF seeing that the underlying causes were different this time he said "nevertheless we have to be cautious given what happened last time”. 

The risk between credit growth and house price growth that existed ahead of the the financial crisis of a decade ago was not as strong at the moment, which explains the reason the IMF is still hopeful for a soft landing for global house prices

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40724964.html

MacronvFrugals

Sold in July for 180k, back up on the market for 325k

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118044005#Comment_118044005

By using the term "soft landing" it nearly flags that they're concerned there's a bubble. There would be no need for any landing if this was sustainable.

mcsean2163

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118044165#Comment_118044165

Lived there for a while. 180k was way to low. Maybe a family sale?

Villa05

Seems an odd case but lots of interesting outcomes

Council agreed price for 16 homes august last year in Limerick village. Builder came looking for more 12 months later citing covid restrictions and inflation. Council prevented from paying more so Focus Ireland stepped in with funding from Estonia based crowd funding to pay the "much higher" price.

The development is 16 3/4 bed semi d's. The figure quoted is 3.5 million which works out at just under 219k per unit.

Thats not bad with covid disruption, material and labour inflation factored in plus a return for the Estonians.

Puts the cost of building an A rated 3/4 bed home in perspective

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/news/charity-pays-more-for-16-homes-than-council-deal-with-builder-40961870.html

https://www.localgov.ie/en/bcms/notice/orchard-main-street-pallaskenry-colimerick

iColdFusion

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118046579#Comment_118046579

Are they paying 3.5mil for finished or unfinished houses though? Its not really clear from that article and the builder is in examinership.

wassie

Understandable that a higher price was needed on the back of materials costs and that Council did not have the ability to match. Hard to say what the real story is with limited details, but it sounds fairly messy.

But in the skeptic in me feels that the "council claimed not doing so would result in an unfinished ghost estate" is a bit of a smokescreen, given the current housing market.

Amadan Dubh

I wonder how much of the funding of Focus Ireland was actually from the local council(s) as they get a lot of funding usually from the State. In effect the councils could just have bypassed the financial rules they have to adhere to.

Bass Reeves

From what I read the company will be taken out of receivership to complete the houses. 250 K is starting to become a base price for 3 bed houses anywhere in the country. The article never stated if the 3.5 million as the last price or the new price for the development.

That area is an nice part of Limerick, you are along the Shannon and off the main road. There is an agricultural college based in that village and AFAIK there is a Secondary school attached to it so everything at your doorstep.

I say the Council's problem is if the receivership happen the houses would have gone on the private market and any replacement project would cost 20-30% more.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047410#Comment_118047410

Do you know if the land there built on is state owned.?

Would be interesting to know to what extent if any the final price is subsidised.

The social/affordable homes in Mungret where purchased for a similar price.

2 very good locations

wassie

The Commencement Notice has Top Drawer Developments as the owner.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047732#Comment_118047732

I doubt it. Generally state bodies do not have land banks in small villages. The Agricultural college is run by a religious order and they tend not to give anything away. There was a boarding school there pre the 1970's. Unusual name to call it The Orchard. However back that direction down by the Shannon was an area where there was a lot of apple grown( close to the Shannon giving an early spring) 50 years ago. I would not be surprised if the land was previously an Orchard. I do recall that there was a lot of development sites around there just before the 2008/10 crash so I suspect it's a hangover from that period.

They have a strong progressive GAA club there. Kildimo/ Pallaskenry. Kyle Hayes plays for them. They are a senior hurling club and are in the Intermediate football final this year. They were two separate clubs and they fully amalgamated and have some record since. I think they were junior Football and intermediate hurling 5+ years ago so have come up two grades in both.

Villa05

From the photo the 1st phase 8 houses appears to be complete in the background

MacronvFrugals

Irish estate agents never were a classy bunch I suppose but this is borderline comedic!

https://twitter.com/crazyhouseprice/status/1450877402079498240?s=20

fergiesfolly

We've gone sale agreed on our home. Estate agent contacted the purchaser to follow up on engineer's report and bank valuation.

Purchaser said he's not getting an engineer's report and EA said he's not obliged to.

Will the bank not ask for one on condition of getting the mortgage?

My thoughts were that he's putting it off till the bank do their valuation, but that's just wasting time.

cruizer101

When we purchased bank didn't request engineer report and have never heard of it being a thing. Its just done for purchasers own confidence

C14N

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118050076#Comment_118050076

The bank only demand their own valution, which is far less comprehensive than an engineer/surveyor report. They'll just send someone out to assess what the house looks like and verify that it is worth what they're lending for it, basically so that if worst comes to the worst and they repossess it, then they can sell it and get their loan amount back.

Purchaser can skip the engineer's report if he wants. It's unsual to do, because then if some defect turns up that he should have known about later on, it'll be his problem, but he can do it.