Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220145#Comment_118220145

yes private debt has in fact been falling in ireland over the last few years, for various different reasons, but again, ireland is now a far more open economy than in the past, we are now far more vulnerable to external shocks, as stiglitz would say, 'markets dont exist in a vacuum', and the same goes for the irish economy.

yes money is also of course created in the public domain, and a significant amount of it has indeed been so over the last few years, qe etc, but again, this has just moved towards inflating existing asset markets, including the value existing properties, it has become far more profitable to do so, when the reality is, we actually need to create new assets with this newly created money, but thats not currently happening, in sufficient quantities, i.e. the whole fire sectors have become effectively defunct, no longer doing what they were originally designed for, the whole model of 'maximizing share holder value' is failing, in fact, i suspect its actually starting to collapse.

the only tool central banks truly have is rate adjustment, but this too has very limited abilities in fulfilling it objectives, i.e. controlling inflation etc, particularly when you have other major sectors such as the fire sectors playing critical roles in helping cause the inflation in the first place. the availability of credit plays a far bigger role in regards inflation, particularly in relation to assets such as property, as we experienced in the previous boom, and the fact, not a whole lot has truly changed in these sectors since the previous boom bust cycle, it wouldnt give you much confidence in the whole process, we simply have no clue whats going to happen next, but history doesnt show a pretty picture....

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220279#Comment_118220279

Yes it has changed as I have outlined in previous posts and it is unlikely that that we will see a surge in lending for house purchases because the customers would not meet the CBI requirements.

You keep talking about the future not being pretty but even if the stock market, the bond market market, the property market all crashed at once it would make little difference as long as jobs are not lost and companies don't go bust because all it would be is a correction where investors would loose unrealised profit ,and the assets will find a new level. If jobs are lost and companies go bust then you are into a recession and that is a unpretty picture.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220445#Comment_118220445

the pressure to get building now is immense, there will be incredible pressure placed upon the central bank and other entities in society to help do so, so....

again, we ve no real clue whats going to happen next, but if there was a major crash in asset markets, nobody knows it this will occur, including myself, you can be damn sure average mary and joe will be negatively impacted, some majorly so, as was the case in 08. there is a huge disconnect between asset markets and the world of the average punter, but history shows, including recent history, when they go bust, the average punter truly takes the hit!

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220520#Comment_118220520

Relaxing lending rules won't equate to an increase in building all that it will do is push prices higher. The new buildings are in the pipeline but won't come on stream for 4/5 years due to planning objections etc. In the mean time the demand for housing will remain high and people will need to pay a premium for it whether it is higher property prices or higher rent.

Just look at the recent European financial stability report where they have issued warnings for other European countries that don't have as strict LTV or LTI rules in place. These countries are at risk of a housing collapse as a result.

If there was a crash in asset markets yes it would impact the average punter as there would be a slow down in economic activity but the impact would not be like in '08 because the government would not need to bail out sectors of the economy to prevent economic Armageddon. If there was a collapse in the asset markets you would see investors flock to government bonds which in turn would equate to lower yields which would be needed to be able to keep servicing the countries debt as tax intake on Capital gains tax etc... drop.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118219879#Comment_118219879

And yet he still got it terribly wrong predicting a crash in 2017 like I say he is guessing just like the rest of us. His pre-2017 opinion if it had come true would mean we would be back at 2010 prices.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118221427#Comment_118221427

Have u a link to that prediction, there is a big difference between saying we are in a bubble and a crash is imminent

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118222391#Comment_118222391

i cant remember him saying such a thing, hes well aware, nobody can accurately predict such a thing

Timing belt

Interesting view by the central bank on current house prices in the financial stability report that was published today

source: https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/financial-stability-review/financial-stability/financial-stability-review-2021-ii.pdf?sfvrsn=4

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118222757#Comment_118222757

...of course it doesnt, as its not trying to buy! but every man and his dog can see that wage inflation has completely decoupled from property price inflation, over the last couple of decades

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220445#Comment_118220445

You keep talking about the future not being pretty but even if the stock market, the bond market market, the property market all crashed at once it would make little difference as long as jobs are not lost and companies don't go bust because all it would be is a correction where investors would loose unrealised profit ,and the assets will find a new level. If jobs are lost and companies go bust then you are into a recession and that is a unpretty picture.

Totally agree with this which is why I tend to roll my eyes when the be careful what you wish for brigade start telling us that if property prices fall we'll all be eating beans and burning the furniture for warmth, far away from dreams of buying a property. It's total rubbish.

Yes of course if a recession and rising unemployment is the trigger for the fall then it would be harmful for the average would be home buyer.

But if something untoward in the world of property investment, institutional funds, REITs etc was the trigger, then it is likely to a distinctly improved situation for the average would be home buyer.

houseyhouse

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118223812#Comment_118223812

Would those types of corrections not trigger a recession? I would have thought big companies would start letting staff go, consumers would get panicky and stop spending, pensions would be hit which would also impact spending etc etc?

hometruths

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118223882#Comment_118223882

Not necessarily. IMO there is a lot of scope in our property market for a correction due to reasons that the average joe would be blissfully unaware of and unaffected by. If any these triggers coincided with a recession, then yes it would be pretty miserable, but I don't think that's inevitable.

But don't worry, most people on here disagree with me as do the Central Bank and the European Commission, so I am probably wrong!

My post in response to Timing Belt was more theoretical - i.e reiterating his point that it is possible to have "a correction where investors would loose unrealised profit ,and the assets will find a new level" that does not take the whole country with it.

I sometimes get the impression that very few people on here understand that point.

tobsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118222790#Comment_118222790

Every man and his dog can also see that interest rates have fallen over the last couple of decades also. Affordability is not just about the price, it’s about the mortgage repayments. I don’t think mortgage repayments on current prices is vastly different than the past when interest rates were substantially higher, when compared with wages at the time.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118223951#Comment_118223951

Individuals who bought homes the last 10 years are well insulated from a crash due to LTV and LTI limits. Renters would get cheaper rent so of course are well insulated from a crash. So I do think the correction in housing would in all likelihood benefit the average Joe while the risk has been outsourced to larger players.

I mean, look at commercial property which is arguably the canary in the coal mine. I use Grafton St as the general example; 20-30% valuation write downs in the last 18 months and no impact to the average Joe. It probably only affected those with risky pensions who are fully aware of the risky nature of property investments. Another reason I think a correction would not be a big deal to the vast majority of people; it was reported yesterday that the central bank is proposing to cap the leverage which property funds can utilise when investing in Irish commercial property at 50%, as they are slightly concerned about a risk posed to the wider market in the event of a fire sale - I think there is little the man on the street would be concerned about if there was a fire sale of commercial property assets!

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118224654#Comment_118224654

I would agree that people who purchased between 2010 and 2016 or so are definitely insulated. I don't agree in terms of the rental element simply because there is not enough supply. Rental prices won't drop by any significant amount because of there are multiple people looking to rent and those with most resources will automatically get to rent.

The reduction in commercial rent in Grafton St (or any other) over the last 18 months is as a result of Covid. Firms who own these properties are paying tax on these rents, these taxes are funding our social welfare supports (amongst other tax revenues). We will only know if the average "joe" will be impacted when the economy actually opens up. We are not in normal times.

Part of any economies success (and by extension the people in it) is impacted on confidence in economic outlook. if firms don't have confidence they are less likely to invest in expanding their business, this leads to reduced demand for labour.

Ush1

This thread is like the naval gazing at the local student union.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118224818#Comment_118224818

On the rental element; this is where our property bubble has been inflated - the amount of totally unaffordable new properties on Daft the last few years just sitting vacant is not something which can be classed as sustainable. These investors are holding 1 bed/2bed apartments at €2k/€2.5+ p/m empty for months and even years (Kennedy Wilson). There is a dubious acceptance that this is somehow tolerable as these are deep pocket investors and "things will recover once covid subsides" but this thinking that there is a "recovery" from covid seems to look back to pre-covid rather than forward to post-covid. What this translates to, for me, is that these newly renovated/developed apartments blocks sitting empty are effectively the empty bags or the road runners having run off the cliff, together with commercial properties. Your eyes don't lie and it is like seeing into the future observing all the empty buildings. The pandemic is an accelerator of change but for definite to think of "going back" to pre-pandemic activity in certain sectors, like commercial property or high end rentals, is to be trying to catch a falling knife.

I see in the news today, once again, covid is blamed for stock market anxieties and underperformance. This is like when Brexit was blamed for the housing market slowdown in 2019 in Ireland. There is a blissful ignorance to any argument which seeks to point out that actually maybe things aren't all rosy purely because they may just be overvalued. We could be walking eyes wide open into a significant correction and this view is bolstered by what I am reading in property market industry pieces and in general stock market commentaries; which seems to be not just downplaying but totally ignoring any sort of risk related to overvaluation. There is practically an expectation that things go up a little or a lot YoY, but no entertaining the possibility of things may be going down consistently for a few years. I don't mean to by hyperbolic but the whole investing world has gone mad and seems to me to be blinded by greed and selfishness - Wanderer78 describes the FIRE sectors as eating themselves at this point; for sure it does have a feeling given property and markets have uncoupled from the real economy where they should have at least some correlation - but they don't.

In Germany we have a new coalition with the CDU taking a backseat (likely a long-term backseat as their support in younger generations is waning every year and shows no sign of recovering) and this new coalition is planning big reforms which tie in with younger people's (i.e. the majority) wishes; legalising cannibas, more aggressive climate goals and reforming the housing market by targeting 400,000 new builds per year (100,000 of which will be social housing) as well as reducing the rental increase cap from 15% over 3 years to 11% over 3 years. They are targeting less fluctuations in housing and living costs YoY for people. This marks a huge change from pro-lobbyist and pro-business, traditional CDU. We will see similarly aggressive goals from our SF & Lefty Friends coalition in a few years - which, surprising to many, will actually have popular support among the majority of people. The change has already been happening but property indicators of course typically lag politics and the general economy so we have not seen the change yet but the indicators are there.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118224654#Comment_118224654

If there was a property crash that didn't result in a recession it would be due to a fire sale of institutional investors.

The properties that these institutional investors would sell would have be rented so if these properties did come to the market and result in lower prices it would mean that Demand for rental properties would increase as a result as the people renting these would need to find new rental accommodation and put additional pressure on rents so the chances of cheaper rent would be practically zero.

The alternative would be that the properties would be sold to other institutional investors with properties still leased to tenants, if this was to happen there would be no additional housing stock available to the average joe soap so it would be unlikely that property prices would crash.

At the end of the day unless there is a reduction in demand or an increase in supply we will not see property prices fall. At the moment the demand side is very strong due to the differential between rent's and mortgage repayments and there is little signs of this changing in the future without:

• something like a recession causing a reduction in disposable income
• Mass emigration or a drop in inward migration

On the supply side it will take time for property to come to the market because of the planning objections etc.

As per the central bank financial stability review which was published yesterday the expectation is that we will see prices rises in Irish property until the necessary supply starts coming on stream.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118225768#Comment_118225768

If there was no demand for the new build apartments (incl. student accommodation and short-term accommodation like hotels) to rent in the last 3 years, there will never be demand for them without the rents dropping significantly. I think it is a scam of some sort that they are being held empty despite being very expensive to build and there seems to be something sustaining the investors which enables them to make zero return for a long time on these investments. Maybe it is the "book value" accounting voodoo that means they can claim to hold an asset worth a certain amount based on projected full occupancy at high rents, which causes them to persist with brand new ghost buildings? Rent collection above 90% and occupancy at seemingly high levels is what is published in the investor reports but what does not seem so clear is whether the number of apartments being marked as "rentable" is being kept artificially lower than the number of apartments that could in fact be rented. As I said, your eyes don't lie and a walk around these developments in the evenings shows this. My point is that the "shock" has happened but the typical indicators used to assess the property market are lagging, as is normal as property is illiquid and slow moving to transact in.

We have had the drop in inward migration and the increase in cost of living is already eating into disposable income and is projected to get worse (the ECB once again fumbling around its inflation forecast and needing to revise it again as it is not fully grasping the situation - I mean, it shouldn't need to constantly change its short-term projections if it had a grasp on the situation https://www.ft.com/content/d789f624-5097-4809-a0e0-2541056b7e63 ).

The Central Bank's projections for price rises to keep occurring for home buyers seems likely for the next few months at least; I mean, supply is being restricted as best as possible with covid uncertainties and delays in breaking ground on projects combined with the low interest rate/hyper QE environment which is still going hell for leather, so of course it's easy to see the link.

JimmyVik

Demand is surely going to increase if this fcuking virus ever goes away. So if prices are high now, I cant wait to see them then.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118225917#Comment_118225917

I think property prices rises will continue for a few years rather than months because there will be no change in rates till at least 2023 (as per speeches from ECB) and it will take time for meaningful supply to come online.

houseyhouse

Any predictions for what’s going to happen with construction costs in the short to medium term?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118226281#Comment_118226281

Here is the extract from the central bank report on construction costs that was published yesterday.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118225917#Comment_118225917

"If there was no demand for the new build apartments (incl. student accommodation and short-term accommodation like hotels) to rent in the last 3 years, there will never be demand for them without the rents dropping significantly"

There were demands prior Covid, and there will likely be demands in the future. There was reduced demands in City Center due to Covid.

Marius34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118219879#Comment_118219879

The private debt although it's serious worry around the World, and it feels like adds to overheating, it's probably not the highest if we compare with GDP terms.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118226522#Comment_118226522

I strongly disagree that there was and is demand for 1 bedroom apartments over €2k per month and 2 beds at €2.5k per month etc. Even high paid workers are not queuing up to come to Dublin and pay those rents. But that isn't even significantly more than the average rents in Dublin for 1 and 2 bed places! Personally speaking, we have a net household income of €7k p/m and I would probably have us in a higher earner bracket for renters but nothing would get us to pay €2.5k p/m on a 2 bed apartment unless our salaries went up at least another 10% (although to be fair this isn't unlikely next year). But presumably the likes of myself are the target market for these very expensive, empty new builds. My peers would be in a similar sentiment to us.

With student accommodation, there is plenty of newly built accommodation for €800+ per month for a room which is just unaffordable for students no matter what way you cut it. And it can't all be geared to international students.

cnocbui

Economic corrections do not improve things for property buyers, except for investors and cash buyers.

JimmyVik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118226651#Comment_118226651

What happens is that people who want and can afford to live in those 2.5k apartments will and the ones who cant or dont will move further out from the city where the same apartment is available at a price they are willing to pay.

For example 1 bed apartment in city center for €2k pm or 1 bed apartment in Swords for €1.5k pm or 1 bed Balbriggan for €1250 would be the type of choices. People will just have to go for what suits their budget.

Markets falling as snow look on news.If its will continue next week Recession will start in January 2022 at full.Thats it the fall of property prices will start soon.Who was seating on bag of cash and waiting for the crash finally will afford property on best price ever.Its started today.

Amadan Dubh

It's not covid spooking markets, that would be too convenient a scapegoat and barely any information about a new variant was released the last day or so to have triggered this dramatic a movement. The trigger happy sellers are typical of bubble activity when people are on edge. Nonetheless, it's the time for taking profits for sure.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118228856#Comment_118228856

Of course it’s not covid spooking the market… It must be because people don’t want to go on holidays that all the airlines/cruises and travel related companies are the biggest losers today with share prices falling 1O+%….absolutely nothing to do with covid and new travel restrictions!!!

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118229278#Comment_118229278

Yes, all those trips people were planning to make to and from the US and Europe to southern Africa have caused airline stocks to plummet! QE and low interest rates is the problem looking for a solution and the coordinated panic is a justification to keep the music playing a bit longer. It's almost too perfect - another South African variant no less. Like Brexit being blamed before for the Irish property market slowdown, we have a new red herring. It is just unbelievable that a few flight cancellations to southern African countries would cause significant drops in oil and stocks!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118229278#Comment_118229278

You forgot short term properties at bookings.They will be empty when them owners will have continue pay mortgages :)

If sell off on markets will continue all next week that will be the end because shares prices are historically high !

There is millions people took loans of cheap money to buy shares and now they will have find money to pay loans back! And banks will have find ways to cover the loses .

Its only started today but all week before that investors been quite nervous already.So keep watching but things which happened today look terrible already.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118229387#Comment_118229387

The sell off is 2-3% and is not even in correction territory. The Dow has seen 7 off these sell off's in the last year.

it is highly probable that that this has already spread to multiple countries and will result in further restrictions and more lockdowns worldwide and that is why there has been a sell off in travel related stocks. It’s has potential to be much bigger than just flights to southern African.

On top of that US and other countries have been releasing large portions of their oil reserves which has resulted in declines in oil prices for the past 3 days.

Will be interesting to see how the Asian Markets react on Sunday night as more info on the variant and infected countries should surface before then.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118229449#Comment_118229449

Are short term bookings not part of Travel?

The VIX is only at 28% and not up in the 60% like when Covid first hit... It has't even hit the levels of volatility that it saw when the other covid Variant's news hit.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118229737#Comment_118229737

The next week stock markets activity will show us property prices in Ireland in 2022

Please do not forget that hedge /investment/cockoo funds buying and investing in property in Ireland as in shares

And when shares holders and investors starting losing money on stock markets they will start pump money out of those funds

What mean sell off of property in Ireland and property prices collapse !

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118230429#Comment_118230429

The stock market is up 15% from a year ago.... share prices falling 2-3% is not going to lead to Investors loosing money so badly that they will need to have a fire sale on Irish property.

Even if the stock market dropped 15% by the end of next week the lower yield on government bonds as investors seek safety in liquid assets will make the yield on property look more attractive.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118230563#Comment_118230563

The structure of jobs and investment in Ireland is low taxation

Ireland has no oil and gas but has plenty green land which she trying to sell creating jobs and Johny Ronans,O Flynns and others.

You need look from that point.

As I said before we have a look to next week stock markets results and where shares holders will invest

To green grass in Ireland or Bitcoin

As I said before the property were cockoo funds invested in Ireland is ordinary shares .They put money in house when house price goes up they making money from it.

There is no supply and demand issues on market :) House in Ireland is a share on stock market and no more than that :)

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118230686#Comment_118230686

So it's like last March 12 months Chicken Licken is running around screaming the sky is going to fall in. It looking for s few turkeys to run around with it screaming it as well.

Yes funds suffer when stock markets fall. But funds seldom leverage into shares so o e of two things happen.

They sell off share and look for safer places for there money gold, government bonds or cash deposits. Most movement is caused by some investors ( individuals who hold pensions) switching from higher risk profile funds to lower risk funds.

Most pension fund investors in Irish property are chasing yield not capital appreciation. The investment is from lower risk funds not those chasing higher returns.

The REIT's that have invested in Irish funds will have taken a long-term investment. The return on investment is what they are looking at. So unless we get mass migration out of Ireland they are not going to panic about a Chicken Licken flapping about. As well a section of there investment is covered by longterm lease's to LA and blue chip corporate companies. You could see money making be in more than a risk of it moving out

Pension companies do not invest in property short term and do not leverage when they do.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118229680#Comment_118229680

It happened so quickly after the covid variant news, that it just couldn't be linked - there is zero information about how transmissible or deadly this variant is, by all accounts it needs to be assessed first. And no where has announced new restrictions from it, just a few cancelled flights from Africa. More likely the little sell off was to do with the US debt ceiling pantomime with the upcoming deadline to extend falling in the next week or even just a lot of people selling to get cash to spend on Black Friday!

The worst thing that could happen would be a panicked additional QE injection and a rolling back of talk to raise interest rates. There is a slight chance to make the fallout a bit better when the asset correction occurs.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118232576#Comment_118232576

The markets move quickly and the drop has been felt most in the Travel Sector which has nothing to do with the US debt celling or Black Friday. To be honest I had to read your post twice just to make sure you were not being sarcastic.

Have you read any of the news in relation to the new variant it is meant to be more transmissible than the Delta variant and has already spread around the world with cases in the UK, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands. I agree that it is to early to know the full effect of it but the WHO and all the scientists are worried about it which is enough to get the travel market spooked and fears of more global lockdowns. If it does result in this then you are looking at a global slow down which will reduce the chances of any rate rises and increase the likelihood of more QE.

Yields on the 10 year Tbills dropped by 10bps yesterday and will drop further if there is more bad news in relation to variant. The economic data coming out of the states next week was expected to be strong but the market won't care about that if the no of cases of the new variant start showing up all around the world or does not respond to the vaccines.

You may not like QE but it has saved millions of jobs and a very sever global recession that would hurt everyone's pocket.

Pussyhands

A nice little 20% crash to the housing market would do me nicely.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118232744#Comment_118232744

I was being sarcastic with the other potential causes, but not about whether the covid news caused the panic selling within a day. I have read some more news about it and it seems to be taken more seriously than I thought in the last 2 days when I first dismissed it, but I still don't think it should've caused such dramatic drops - even bitcoin fell which, despite its general instability, seemed to fall yesterday for the same reason as the markets.

I just think there is little room to grow for assets without constant State and central bank support. The whole thing is just not being allowed even a slight correction, but it defies sense to think assets can keep rocketing while wages barely go up and even go down as inflation eats into them. A correction feels inevitable and I don't necessarily link a correction to a crash. Artificial conditions keep these valuations high and can't last forever.

My own opinion about future of property market if fall of stock markets will continue next week

The hedge /investment/coockoo funds bought many property investing investors money in Ireland

If stocks will continue falling the investors will starting moving to cash creating funds to buy cheap shares on bottom

They will pumping cash out of companies which already invested to property in Ireland and those companies will start sell of of property in Ireland trying play back

Because those funds will start leave markets building sites will slow down because there is not enough buyers in Ireland to move building industry forward ( that why government let those funds come to Ireland )

Unemployed builders will fill shortage of labor in other industries and we will back to normal for a while

The cash buyers will continue move property market for a while and then government will organize cheap labor from Brazil and Philippines freely come to Ireland because there will be no Eastern Europe workers anymore what will keep renting market clicking over

You see guys somebody need pay rents and pay pensions and somebody need to move building industry forward also

Well there will be quiet as 2008-2011 for 2-3 years but there will be no end of the World

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118233717#Comment_118233717

If there is a fall in the stock market investors will move to government bonds as it is safer than cash. As the price of the bonds goes higher the yield goes lower which makes any investment in property more valuable as you can still get 3-4% yield from them.

Hedge funds are not material players in the property market... It is insurance and pension companies who are looking for a steady cash flow that allow them to pay out on policies/pensions. Normally these insurance and pension companies would hold government bonds but as the price of these bonds have shot up in value because of central banks buying them they can't generate enough cash to pay out on policies and pensions so they have looked elsewhere and property with it's strong yield has replaced what they would have invested in government bonds.

Until you see the yield on government debt climb higher you will not see a slow down on investments in properties and new builds.

Your doomsday scenario outlined above where you see stock market crash = fire sale in property would only happen if you had mass unemployment as a result of a stock market crash.

Personally I think markets will open 2-3% down Monday followed buy a rebound Tuesday as investors buy the dip as greed is still much stronger than fear. The strong economic data that is expected to coming out of the US next week will also give investors comfort to pile right back in. The only thing that would change this is if it is proven that the vacaines do not work on the new covid variant and as a result the world is looking at another year of lockdowns. I think you will see property increase in price until at least 2023/24

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118233848#Comment_118233848

Do you think people are powerless in this ever increasing rent prices scenario.

If there is nothing in the system for an ever increasing proportion of our populations, surely a revolution is not far away, be it positive or negative for people

The great resignation is an interesting concept, so many jobs are now pointless as they do nothing to improve your lot, as rents will take more than you earn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118233848#Comment_118233848

Lets see what gonna happen next week anyway ant talk about it on Friday evening next week.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118234793#Comment_118234793

No people are not powerless but until their is more housing to rent than people looking to rent rent won’t fall without mass unemployment. demonstrate/protests do whatever it will still take time for supply to come online.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118235357#Comment_118235357

Would you think that the more unaffordable rents become the greater likelihood of a significant crash.

Where is the pressure release valve, I'm not seeing one so this continues until it explodes

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118235572#Comment_118235572

No more unaffordable rents won’t lead to a crash as people have to live somewhere and if they have no choice or alternative they have to live with it no matter how difficult it is.

The only release valve is

• a increase in supply whether that is funds exiting the market because they can a steady return on government bonds when rates rise substantially or an increase in new builds.
• a fall in demand brought about by unemployment, less people migrating to Ireland or mass emigration.

None of this would appear likely at the moment except an increase in new builds that will take a few years to come online